April 2025 in Retrospect
Dear readers,
If March was ‘relatively quiet,’ April 2025 was a month when digital governance and diplomatic dynamics changed, from Geneva boardrooms to Silicon Valley courtrooms.
In the first 100 days of his second term, President Donald Trump paused US funding to the UN, impacting agencies like the WTO and WHO and triggering a crisis in Geneva with job losses looming among international workers.
Tech policy during President Trump’s first 100 days was marked by continuity rather than change, as Dr Jovan Kurbalija detailed in his blog ‘Tech continuity in President Trump’s first 100 days,’ contrasting with more turbulent trade and environmental shifts. Trump’s tech policy prioritised policy reviews and public consultations on AI and digital issues, signalling steady evolution over radical disruption.
President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, including a 10% baseline import tariff and up to 145% on specific Chinese goods, have significantly disrupted global trade, prompting retaliatory tariffs from China and causing widespread economic uncertainty.
The EU’s €700 million fines on Apple and Meta under the Digital Markets Act have further escalated transatlantic tensions, prompting US tariff threats and highlighting digital policy as a geopolitical tool.
TikTok has been handed a €530 million ($600 million) fine by Ireland’s Data Protection Commissioner (DPC) over data privacy violations involving user information transfers to China. Platforms like X and TikTok are still facing mounting scrutiny over content moderation and data privacy.
Below, we break down the key trends that defined April, connecting the dots between the daily events and the broader digital trajectory.
Diplo’s analysis and reporting in an exceptional time
In a world where history unfolds at breakneck speed, the real challenge isn’t just keeping up—it’s making sense of it all. Every day brings a flood of information, but the bigger picture often gets lost in the noise. How do today’s developments shape long-term trends? How do they impact us as individuals, communities, businesses, and even humanity?
At Diplo, we bridge the gap between real-time updates and deeper insights. Our Digital Watch keeps a pulse on daily developments while connecting them to weekly, monthly, and yearly trends as illustrated bellow.
From cybersecurity to e-commerce to digital governance, we track these shifts from daily fluctuations to long-term industry pivots.
In the April monthly issue, you can follow: AI and tech TRENDS | Developments in GENEVA | Dig.Watch ANALYSIS
Best regards,
DW Team
Trends
Trade tendencies and economic impacts
In April 2025, trade tensions and economic impacts dominated the global digital landscape, with the US-China trade war intensifying under President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, including a 10% baseline import tariff and up to 145% on specific Chinese goods, significantly disrupting global trade, prompting retaliatory tariffs from China, and causing widespread economic uncertainty. The removal of the ‘de minimis’ exemption for e-commerce imports under $800 has imposed steep cost increases on small enterprises.
As detailed in Dr Jovan Kurbalija’s blog Tech continuity in President Trump’s first 100 days, Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda has led to a retreat from multilateral institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and World Health Organization (WHO), with cascading effects on jobs, diplomacy, and the digital governance frameworks these bodies uphold. With thousands of jobs at risk in Geneva, the epicentre of global health, trade, and diplomacy, these cuts are not merely a budgetary blow; they signal a seismic shift in how digital policies are developed and enforced amidst a fracturing geopolitical landscape.
Supply chain diversification amid economic uncertainty
The economic impacts of trade tensions drove significant supply chain shifts. The US export controls on AI chips, costing Nvidia $5.5 billion, have spurred Chinese innovation, with firms like DeepSeek launching efficient multimodal AI models. Apple is preparing to assemble all iPhones sold inside the USA in India by next year, aiming to produce over 60 million units annually in the country by 2026 to bypass US tariffs, reflecting a broader trend of diversification to mitigate tariff impacts. The tech industry has faced further pressure, with Microsoft scaling back AI data centre investments due to economic uncertainty, signalling a cautious approach to expansion amid trade volatility.
Geopolitical leverage through digital trade policies
President Donald Trump indicated he would extend the deadline set for the Chinese-owned company ByteDance to sell TikTok’s US operations again if negotiations remain unfinished by 19 June. The development follows China’s disagreement with Trump over the $54B deal due to the tariff rise.
Regulatory and legal framework tendencies
Robust enforcement of the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA): The EU has imposed its first fines under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), targeting Apple and Meta for anti-competitive practices. Apple faces a €500 million penalty for restricting app developers from directing users to alternative purchasing options outside its App Store. Meta was fined €200 million for its ‘consent or pay’ model, which required users to either consent to personalised ads or pay a fee for an ad-free experience on Facebook and Instagram. The fines, totalling €700 million, further escalated transatlantic tensions, prompting US tariff threats and highlighting digital policy as a geopolitical tool.
European regulators are putting pressure on Big Tech, with Alphabet’s Google and Elon Musk’s X expected to be next in line for penalties under the EU’s tough new digital rules. The EU’s finalisation of a €1 billion fine against X for DSA violations, including demands for product changes to enhance content moderation. Furthermore, the EU requested additional data from X on its content moderation resources, reflecting a trend of deeper regulatory oversight into platform operations to ensure compliance with risk management and transparency requirements.
Meta is also facing fresh legal backlash in France as 67 French media companies representing over 200 publications filed a lawsuit alleging unfair competition in the digital advertising market.
TikTok, instead, has been handed a €530 million ($600 million) fine by Ireland’s Data Protection Commissioner (DPC) over data privacy violations involving user information transfers to China.
Despite US President Donald Trump’s objections, the EU appears undeterred, viewing the DMA as a veiled tariff on American tech firms.
Meanwhile, in the USA: On the other side of the Atlantic, we have the Google antitrust court case in the USA, where the US Department of Justice (DOJ) added the AI-driven search monopoly accusation to its court file. Namely, the DOJ launched its opening arguments in a long-awaited landmark antitrust trial against Google, aimed at curbing the tech giant’s dominance in online search and preventing it from leveraging AI to entrench its position further. Simultaneously, the Federal Trade Commission initiated proceedings against Meta, challenging its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp.
AI-driven web search tendency: Big Tech has revolutionised online search by introducing AI-powered engines, transforming how users navigate the vast digital landscape. Companies like Google and Microsoft have integrated advanced AI features, with Google’s AI Overviews summarising results at the top of search pages and Microsoft’s Copilot offering reasoning-driven answers through Bing, making searches faster and more intuitive. These innovations, driven by large language models, provide tailored, context-aware responses, moving beyond traditional link-based results to conversational, real-time insights. However, this shift raises concerns about data privacy, web search monopoly and the potential disruption of web traffic that fuels online businesses, as AI answers often reduce the need to visit external sites.
Global Implications and Future Trajectory
The trend is likely to influence global standards, with the EU’s actions setting a precedent for other nations, which are not comfortable with relaxed content moderation by tech platforms.
The involvement of the US government remains a possibility, given the transatlantic tensions and the potential for reciprocal regulatory actions.
For more information on cybersecurity, digital policies, AI governance and other related topics, visit diplomacy.edu.
Snapshot: The developments that made waves
TECHNOLOGY
April 2025 has been a month of legal battles over digital governance and global trade tensions, along with the growing tendency of competition regulation in the technology sector.
Google’s AI chatbot Gemini has reached 350 million monthly active users and 35 million daily users as of March 2025, according to court documents revealed during an ongoing antitrust trial.
A controversial new startup called Cluely has secured $5.3 million in seed funding to expand its AI-powered tool designed to help users ‘cheat on everything,’ from job interviews to exams.
Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has announced its intention to share the technology behind its internal inference engine, a move aimed at enhancing collaboration within the open-source AI community.
Meta’s latest open-source language model, Llama 4 Maverick, has ranked poorly on a widely used AI benchmark after the company was criticised for initially using a heavily modified, unreleased version to boost its results.
GOVERNANCE
In his blog post ‘Tech continuity in President Trump’s first 100 days,’ Jovan Kurbalija highlights that Trump’s approach to technology remained remarkably stable despite political turbulence in trade and environmental policy.
The European Commission is facing growing criticism after a joint investigation revealed that Big Tech companies had disproportionate influence over the drafting of the EU’s Code of Practice on General Purpose AI.
The UN faces renewed financial uncertainty as Donald Trump’s administration reviews all US support for international organisations. Trump has already paused funding across multiple UN agencies and withdrawn from bodies like the World Health Organisation and the Human Rights Council.
The Hamburg Declaration on Responsible AI for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is a new global initiative jointly launched by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).
INFRASTRUCTURE
Microsoft has unveiled a set of five digital commitments aimed at supporting Europe’s technological and economic future.
Google has announced a partnership with PJM Interconnection, the largest electricity grid operator in North America, to deploy AI aimed at reducing delays in connecting new power sources to the grid.
Microsoft has announced it is ‘slowing or pausing’ some data centre construction projects, including a $1 billion plan in Ohio, amid shifting demand for AI infrastructure.
LEGAL
Alphabet, Google’s parent company, may soon be forced to split into separate entities, with its Chrome browser emerging as a particularly attractive target.
The European Commission has fined tech giants Apple and Meta a combined €700 million, marking the first penalties under the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA).
Former Facebook executive Sarah Wynn-Williams has accused Meta of compromising US national security to grow its business in China.
The US House Financial Services Committee has passed a bill aimed at regulating stablecoins, moving it to a full House vote.
ECONOMY
President Donald Trump has signed executive orders easing his controversial 25% tariffs on automobiles and parts, aiming to relieve pressure on carmakers struggling with rising costs.
The United Kingdom and the USA are set to strengthen their collaboration in advancing cryptocurrency adoption.
Fast fashion giants Temu and Shein have warned US shoppers to expect price hikes from next week, as sweeping new tariffs on Chinese imports come into effect under Donald Trump’s trade policy.
The team behind the Trump-themed meme coin on Solana has withdrawn $4.6 million in USDC just days before a massive token unlock.
Paul Atkins has officially been sworn in as the 34th Chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Known for his pro-crypto stance, Atkins is expected to bring much-needed clarity to digital asset regulations.
OpenAI has expressed interest in acquiring Google’s Chrome browser if it were to be made available, viewing it as a potential boost for its AI platform, ChatGPT.
Cryptocurrency firms are increasingly merging with traditional finance (TradFi), reflecting a growing synergy between the two sectors. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, noted that both crypto exchanges and TradFi players are seeking to bridge the gap between the two sectors.
A report from El Salvador’s central bank shows that only 11% of registered Bitcoin service providers are currently operational.
Moscow is set to host the Global Blockchain Forum 2025 from 23-24 April, attracting over 15,000 crypto enthusiasts worldwide.
World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a cryptocurrency project backed by the Trump family, has added 4.89 million SEI tokens to its portfolio.
Panama City has announced that it will accept Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins like USDC and Tether as payment for public services.
AMD has warned that new US government restrictions on exporting AI chips to China and several other countries could materially affect its earnings.
Global stock markets experienced a significant surge following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day suspension on tariffs for several countries.
Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) released a discussion paper on 10 April, titled ‘Examining the Structure of Regulatory Frameworks Related to Crypto Assets’.
SECURITY
The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has extended its contract with the MITRE Corporation to continue operating the Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) program for an additional 11 months.
Adyen fell victim to three coordinated DDoS attacks on Monday evening, severely disrupting debit card and online payments.
Hackers linked to Russia are refining their techniques to infiltrate Microsoft 365 accounts, according to cybersecurity firm Volexity. Their latest strategy targets non-governmental organisations (NGOs) associated with Ukraine by exploiting OAuth, a protocol used for app authorisation without passwords.
Chinese authorities have accused three alleged US operatives of orchestrating cyberattacks on national infrastructure during the Asian Games in Harbin this February.
Between 7 and 11 April, representatives from 20 allied governments and national agencies participated in a NATO-led exercise designed to strengthen mutual support in the cyber domain.
The launch of DeepSeek, a Chinese-developed LLM, has reignited long-standing concerns about AI, national security, and industrial espionage.
Japan has passed the Active Cyber Defence Bill, which permits the country’s military and law enforcement agencies to undertake pre-emptive measures in response to cyber threats.
DEVELOPMENT
The European Commission is ramping up enforcement of its Digital Services Act (DSA) by hiring 60 more staff to support ongoing investigations into major tech platforms. Despite beginning probes into companies such as X, Meta, TikTok, AliExpress and Temu since December 2023, none have concluded.
Google is offering a 71% discount on its business apps package to US federal agencies as part of a new agreement with the General Services Administration (GSA).
SOCIO-CULTURAL
The AI race between China and the USA shifts to classrooms. As AI governance expert Jovan Kurbalija highlights in his analysis of global AI strategies, two countries see AI literacy as a ‘strategic imperative’.
Meta will soon prevent children under 16 from livestreaming on Instagram unless their parents explicitly approve.
ChatGPT’s user base has doubled in recent weeks, with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman estimating up to 800 million people now use the platform weekly.
A wave of protest has hit Meta’s London headquarters as authors and publishing professionals gather to voice their outrage over the tech giant’s reported use of pirated books to develop AI tools.
AI may seem like a modern marvel, but its foundations stretch back to early 20th-century philosophical thought, particularly to the Lwów–Warsaw School of Philosophy. In a recent blog by Jovan Kurbalija, Executive Director of Diplo, he highlights how this influential movement, established by Kazimierz Twardowski and active between the world wars, made groundbreaking contributions to logic, semantics, and analytical philosophy—fields that underpin today’s AI systems.
For more information on cybersecurity, digital policies, AI governance and other related topics, visit diplomacy.edu.
Geneva in April
US funding cuts threaten the UN’s future and Geneva’s role as a global hub
Under President Donald Trump, sweeping US funding cuts have sent shockwaves across the UN system, jeopardising operations at key Geneva-based organisations like the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO). With the US previously contributing approximately $18 billion annually to the UN system, including $13 billion in 2023 alone, Trump’s freeze and review of UN funding have triggered deep structural crises. WHO faces a dramatic budget shortfall of up to 45% for 2026-2027 after losing around $1.2 billion due to the US exit in January, prompting plans to downsize its staff and operational structure significantly. The WTO, marking its 30th anniversary amidst escalating global trade tensions fuelled by US tariffs, faces existential challenges, as Trump’s preference for bilateral negotiations undermines the multilateral trade framework.
In Geneva, home to 29,000 international workers, fears are mounting as the UN considers moving thousands of positions to lower-cost locations. New York and Geneva, the UN’s most expensive duty stations, must identify posts for potential relocation by 2026. This move has sparked anxiety among staff and host states alike, with unions protesting the rapid pace and lack of transparency in the decision-making process. Cities such as Nairobi, Vienna, Bonn, and Valencia stand to gain roles relocated from Geneva and New York, further fragmenting the UN’s workforce. Switzerland, heavily invested in Geneva’s role as an international hub, has expressed deep concerns over the potential loss of institutional knowledge and operational efficiency.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s tariff policies, including reciprocal tariffs reaching up to 145% against China, further complicate the situation. The WTO has warned that these tariffs could significantly slow global trade growth, disrupting markets worldwide. Experts highlight that Trump’s bilateral approach to trade negotiations may destabilise the WTO’s multilateral trading system, as nations may feel pressured to enter direct negotiations with the US, thereby weakening collective bargaining power. With major UN agencies grappling with budget cuts, operational downsizing, and geopolitical tensions, the future of multilateral diplomacy, as well as Geneva’s status as a key international diplomatic centre, remains uncertain.
dig.watch Analyses
Tech continuity in President Trump’s first 100 days
Tech policy during President Trump’s first 100 days was marked by continuity rather than change, contrasting with more turbulent trade and environmental shifts. Only 9 of 139 executive orders (EOs) explicitly focused on technology. You can consult the EOS’ text and the AI agent below.
Trump’s tech policy prioritised policy reviews and public consultations on AI and digital issues, signalling steady evolution over radical disruption.
Here, we revisit a forecast from January ahead of the online debate on Trump and Tech after the first 100 days on 30 April.
Policy continuity
Trump’s tech policy reinforces a business-centric approach consistent with a century-long US tech governance tradition.
The US mantra of ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ underpins its tech policy, supporting the tech industry’s core interests. However, the EU and other nations push for digital sovereignty, challenging this status quo. This trend could be accelerated with the spillover effect of US tariffs. As restrictions on goods, services, people, and capital intensify, the tension between a unified Internet and a fractured geopolitical landscape grows.
Four flashpoints encapsulate this Catch-22: digital service taxes, regulatory pressure, content rules and AI data access.
Content governance
The most notable policy shift occurred on 20 January 2025, with the Restoring Freedom of Speech and Ending Federal Censorship EO, which scaled back misinformation initiatives. Meta’s 2025 alignment with Elon Musk’s content moderation rollback at X (formerly Twitter) amplified this trend.
Key debates include:
Platform Liability: Section 230’s future remains uncertain. Despite the interest in bipartisan reform, Trump has yet to address it directly, though leveraging it to hold companies accountable could reshape his current content policy.
Global Tensions: The EU’s Digital Services Act and Australia’s social media restrictions clash with Trump’s deregulatory stance, risking diplomatic friction.
TikTok saga continues
The TikTok saga has shifted from content governance towards geopolitical relations with China. On 4 April 2025, ByteDance got an extension till mid-June to find a non-Chinese buyer. US tariffs on China further complicate TikTok negotiations.
AI: Aligning with global trends
On his first day in the office, Trump revoked Biden’s EO 14110, shifting from AI safety to a pro-business development focus. This shift also reflects a global change in AI governance from focusing on existential risks in 2023 to approaches balancing AI risks and opportunities. The 23 April 2025 EO on AI education introduced reforms to integrate AI into primary and university curricula.
A public consultation for a new AI Action Plan, with 8,755 comments, highlighted priorities: OpenAI emphasised the ideological aspect of AI competition with China, Google focused on competitiveness, and Anthropic stressed safety and security.
Vice President Vance’s speech at the AI Summit in Paris underscored development over restrictive safety regulations, signalling U.S. resistance to global AI governance initiatives.
Cybersecurity: Policy continuity and focus on China
Continuity and reviewing are the main features of Trump’s cybersecurity policies. The main major shift is explicitly excluding ‘cognitive infrastructure’ (e.g., misinformation, fake news) from cybersecurity realms and focusing on protecting technical infrastructure from cyber-risks.
Internationally, export controls on China persisted, but Russia was removed from the cyber-threat list, aligning with the US’s overall geopolitical shift.
Digital economy: tariffs, taxes, regulations, and de minimis
Although the first 100 days did not bring any major developments in tech or the economy, the new set of tariffs introduced on 6th April could have the tech industry as ‘collateral damage’. It seems unlikely that the free flow of data—key for the tech sector—will remain possible if there are restrictions on the movement of other pillars of the modern economy: goods, services, people, and capital. With the current pause in introducing US tariffs, there will be more time to review risks on digital networks and the internet.
Apart from tariff tensions, the digital economy will be affected by the introduction of digital services taxes (DSTs). After failed OECD digital tax negotiations, many countries started implementing DST, ensuring that tech companies contribute to the local economies they profit from. France has imposed a 3 percent tax and the UK a 2 percent tax on revenue generated by their citizens’ use of search engines, social media platforms, and other e-services.
The US retaliated with counter-tariffs under Section 301 of the US Trade Act against Austria, France, Italy, Spain, Türkiye, and the UK. The Trump administration threatened to escalate countermeasures under Section 891 of the same Act, specifying double corporate taxes on firms from jurisdictions that tax US companies.
In the case of a trade war, it is also likely that countries will apply more stringent regulatory pressure against tech firms. Some interpret the EU’s measures against Meta and Facebook in this context.
On 2 April, Trump signed EO 14257, ending the de minimis exemption that allowed customs- and tax-free importation of goods under a certain value threshold. The new regulation will considerably impact Chinese companies such as Temu, which exported some US $240 billion in direct-to-consumer trade worldwide in 2024, accounting for 7 percent of its overseas sales and contributing 1.3 percent of China’s GDP.
Tariffs, taxes, and regulatory pressure are likely to lead to the fragmentation of the global digital economy. Economic fragmentation may trigger technical fragmentation through increased traffic filtering and divergent standards in a cascading effect. In the most radical scenario, such trends could result in the Internet splitting into separate, non-interoperable systems.
Cryptocurrencies: New dawn
Rewarding crypto industry support in the election campaign, Trump started with deregulation and crypto-friendly policies. EO 14178 (23 Jan 2025) revoked Biden’s crypto limits, banned a central bank digital currency, and established a regulatory working group. The 6 March 2025 EO created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, allowing the Treasury to hold confiscated digital assets. These moves, while bold, raise concerns about market volatility and policy conflicts.
UN and US digital diplomacy
US digital diplomacy reflects the broader shift in Trump’s geopolitical strategy. For example, rapprochement with Russia led to a UN statement removing Russia from the list of nations designated as cyber threats. In the UN Commission on Science and Technology for Development, the US voted against the proposed resolution because of references to non-technical issues, including sustainable development goals (SDGs) and climate and gender rights.
Another signal of US priorities is the International Telecommunication Union’s (ITU) exclusion from organisations facing significant cuts to American funding, except for one small project. Analysts, including those at Geneva Solutions, attribute this to the ITU’s potential role in providing regulatory certainty for initiatives like Elon Musk’s space exploration ventures.
Conclusion: Continuity with international challenges
While Trump’s presidency may bring some shifts in tech policy, particularly around content regulation and AI, it will be shaped by the long-term continuity of the US tech policy prioritising private-sector innovation and resisting international regulatory efforts.
However, maintaining this approach will require navigating growing tensions with the EU, China, and other countries that aim to increase their digital sovereignty, including data flow and economic gains from the Internet economy.
Thus, Trump’s tech presidency will be less about regulatory revolution and more about preserving the status quo.
For more information on these topics, visit diplomacy.edu.
Rewriting the AI playbook: How Meta plans to win through openness
Meta hosted its first-ever LlamaCon, a high-profile developer conference centred around its open-source language models. Timed to coincide with the release of its Q1 earnings, the event showcased Llama 4, Meta’s newest and most powerful open-weight model yet.
The message was clear – Meta wants to lead the next generation of AI on its own terms, and with an open-source edge. Beyond presentations, the conference represented an attempt to reframe Meta’s public image.
Once defined by social media and privacy controversies, Meta is positioning itself as a visionary AI infrastructure company. LlamaCon wasn’t just about a model. It was about a movement Meta wants to lead, with developers, startups, and enterprises as co-builders.
By holding LlamaCon the same week as its earnings call, Meta strategically emphasised that its AI ambitions are not side projects. They are central to the company’s identity, strategy, and investment priorities moving forward. This convergence of messaging signals a bold new chapter in Meta’s evolution.
The rise of Llama: From open-source curiosity to strategic priority
When Meta introduced LLaMA 1 in 2023, the AI community took notice of its open-weight release policy. Unlike OpenAI and Anthropic, Meta allowed researchers and developers to download, fine-tune, and deploy Llama models on their own infrastructure. That decision opened a floodgate of experimentation and grassroots innovation.
Now with Llama 4, the models have matured significantly, featuring better instruction tuning, multilingual capacity, and improved safety guardrails. Meta’s AI researchers have incorporated lessons learned from previous iterations and community feedback, making Llama 4 an update and a strategic inflexion point.
Crucially, Meta is no longer releasing Llama as a research novelty. It is now a platform and stable foundation for third-party tools, enterprise solutions, and Meta’s AI products. That is a turning point, where open-source ideology meets enterprise-grade execution.
Zuckerberg’s bet: AI as the engine of Meta’s next chapter
Mark Zuckerberg has rarely shied away from bold, long-term bets—whether it’s the pivot to mobile in the early 2010s or the more recent metaverse gamble. At LlamaCon, he clarified that AI is now the company’s top priority, surpassing even virtual reality in strategic importance.
He framed Meta as a ‘general-purpose AI company’, focused on both the consumer layer (via chatbots and assistants) and the foundational layer (models and infrastructure). Meta CEO envisions a world where Meta powers both the AI you talk to and the AI your apps are built on—a dual play that rivals Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI.
This bet comes with risk. Investors are still sceptical about Meta’s ability to turn research breakthroughs into a commercial advantage. But Zuckerberg seems convinced that whoever controls the AI stack—hardware, models, and tooling—will control the next decade of innovation, and Meta intends to be one of those players.
A costly future: Meta’s massive AI infrastructure investment
Meta’s capital expenditure guidance for 2025—$60 to $65 billion—is among the largest in tech history. These funds will be spent primarily on AI training clusters, data centres, and next-gen chips.
That level of spending underscores Meta’s belief that scale is a competitive advantage in the LLM era. Bigger compute means faster training, better fine-tuning, and more responsive inference—especially for billion-parameter models like Llama 4 and beyond.
However, such an investment raises questions about whether Meta can recoup this spending in the short term. Will it build enterprise services, or rely solely on indirect value via engagement and ads? At this point, no monetisation plan is directly tied to Llama—only a vision and the infrastructure to support it.
Economic clouds: Revenue growth vs Wall Street’s expectations
Meta reported an 11% year-over-year increase in revenue in Q1 2025, driven by steady performance across its ad platforms. However, Wall Street reacted negatively, with the company’s stock falling nearly 13% following the earnings report, because investors are worried about the ballooning costs associated with Meta’s AI ambitions.
Despite revenue growth, Meta’s margins are thinning, mainly due to front-loaded investments in infrastructure and R&D. While Meta frames these as essential for long-term dominance in AI, investors are still anchored to short-term profit expectations.
A fundamental tension is at play here – Meta is acting like a venture-stage AI startup with moonshot spending, while being valued as a mature, cash-generating public company. Whether this tension resolves through growth or retrenchment remains to be seen.
Global headwinds: China, tariffs, and the shifting tech supply chain
Beyond internal financial pressures, Meta faces growing external challenges. Trade tensions between the US and China have disrupted the global supply chain for semiconductors, AI chips, and data centre components.
Meta’s international outlook is dimming with tariffs increasing and Chinese advertising revenue falling. That is particularly problematic because Meta’s AI infrastructure relies heavily on global suppliers and fabrication facilities. Any disruption in chip delivery, especially GPUs and custom silicon, could derail its training schedules and deployment timelines.
At the same time, Meta is trying to rebuild its hardware supply chain, including in-house chip design and alternative sourcing from regions like India and Southeast Asia. These moves are defensive but reflect how AI strategy is becoming inseparable from geopolitics.
Llama 4 in context: How it compares to GPT-4 and Gemini
Llama 4 represents a significant leap from Llama 2 and is now comparable to GPT-4 in a range of benchmarks. Early feedback suggests strong performance in logic, multilingual reasoning, and code generation.
However, how it handles tool use, memory, and advanced agentic tasks is still unclear. Compared to Gemini 1.5, Google’s flagship model, Llama 4 may still fall short in certain use cases, especially those requiring long context windows and deep integration with other Google services.
But Llama has one powerful advantage – it’s free to use, modify, and self-host. That makes Llama 4 a compelling option for developers and companies seeking control over their AI stack without paying per-token fees or exposing sensitive data to third parties.
Open source vs closed AI: Strategic gamble or masterstroke?
Meta’s open-weight philosophy differentiates it from rivals, whose models are mainly gated, API-bound, and proprietary. By contrast, Meta freely gives away its most valuable assets, such as weights, training details, and documentation.
Openness drives adoption. It creates ecosystems, accelerates tooling, and builds developer goodwill. Meta’s strategy is to win the AI competition not by charging rent, but by giving others the keys to build on its models. In doing so, it hopes to shape the direction of AI development globally.
Still, there are risks. Open weights can be misused, fine-tuned for malicious purposes, or leaked into products Meta doesn’t control. But Meta is betting that being everywhere is more powerful than being gated. And so far, that bet is paying off—at least in influence, if not yet in revenue.
Can Meta’s open strategy deliver long-term returns?
Meta’s LlamaCon wasn’t just a tech event but a philosophical declaration. In an era where AI power is increasingly concentrated and monetised, Meta chooses a different path based on openness, infrastructure, and community adoption.
The company invests tens of billions of dollars without a clear monetisation model. It is placing a massive bet that open models and proprietary infrastructure can become the dominant framework for AI development.
Meta’s move positions it as the Android of the LLM era—ubiquitous, flexible, and impossible to ignore. The road ahead will be shaped by both technical breakthroughs and external forces—regulation, economics, and geopolitics.
Whether Meta’s open-source gamble proves visionary or reckless, one thing is clear – the AI landscape is no longer just about who has the most innovative model. It’s about who builds the broadest ecosystem.
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Beyond the imitation game: GPT-4.5, the Turing Test, and what comes next
From GPT-4 to 4.5: What has changed and why it matters
In March 2024, OpenAI released GPT-4.5, the latest iteration in its series of large language models (LLMs), pushing the boundaries of what machines can do with language understanding and generation. Building on the strengths of GPT-4, its successor, GPT-4.5, demonstrates improved reasoning capabilities, a more nuanced understanding of context, and smoother, more human-like interactions.
What sets GPT-4.5 apart from its predecessors is that it showcases refined alignment techniques, better memory over longer conversations, and increased control over tone, persona, and factual accuracy. Its ability to maintain coherent, emotionally resonant exchanges over extended dialogue marks a turning point in human-AI communication. These improvements are not just technical — they significantly affect the way we work, communicate, and relate to intelligent systems.
The increasing ability of GPT-4.5 to mimic human behaviour has raised a key question: Can it really fool us into thinking it is one of us? That question has recently been answered — and it has everything to do with the Turing Test.
The Turing Test: Origins, purpose, and modern relevance
In 1950, British mathematician and computer scientist Alan Turing posed a provocative question: ‘Can machines think?’ In his seminal paper ‘Computing Machinery and Intelligence,’ he proposed what would later become known as the Turing Test — a practical way of evaluating a machine’s ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour indistinguishable from that of a human.
In its simplest form, if a human evaluator cannot reliably distinguish between a human’s and a machine’s responses during a conversation, the machine is said to have passed the test. For decades, the Turing Test remained more of a philosophical benchmark than a practical one.
Early chatbots like ELIZA in the 1960s created the illusion of intelligence, but their scripted and shallow interactions fell far short of genuine human-like communication. Many researchers have questioned the test’s relevance as AI progressed, arguing that mimicking conversation is not the same as true understanding or consciousness.
Despite these criticisms, the Turing Test has endured — not as a definitive measure of machine intelligence, but rather as a cultural milestone and public barometer of AI progress. Today, the test has regained prominence with the emergence of models like GPT-4.5, which can hold complex, context-aware, emotionally intelligent conversations. What once seemed like a distant hypothetical is now an active, measurable challenge that GPT-4.5 has, by many accounts, overcome.
How GPT-4.5 fooled the judges: Inside the Turing Test study
In early 2025, a groundbreaking study conducted by researchers at the University of California, San Diego, provided the most substantial evidence yet that an AI could pass the Turing Test. In a controlled experiment involving over 500 participants, multiple conversational agents—including GPT-4.5, Meta’s LLaMa-3.1, and the classic chatbot ELIZA—were evaluated in blind text-based conversations. The participants were tasked with identifying whether they spoke to a human or a machine.
The results were astonishing: GPT-4.5 was judged to be human in 54% to 73% of interactions, depending on the scenario, surpassing the baseline for passing the Turing Test. In some cases, it outperformed actual human participants—who were correctly identified as human only 67% of the time.
That experiment marked the first time a contemporary AI model convincingly passed the Turing Test under rigorous scientific conditions. The study not only demonstrated the model’s technical capabilities—it also raised philosophical and ethical questions.
What does it mean for a machine to be ‘indistinguishable’ from a human? And more importantly, how should society respond to a world where AI can convincingly impersonate us?
Measuring up: GPT-4.5 vs LLaMa-3.1 and ELIZA
While GPT-4.5’s performance in the Turing Test has garnered much attention, its comparison with other models puts things into a clearer perspective. Meta’s LLaMa-3.1, a powerful and widely respected open-source model, also participated in the study.
It was identified as human in approximately 56% of interactions — a strong showing, although it fell just short of the commonly accepted benchmark to define a Turing Test pass. The result highlights how subtle conversational nuance and coherence differences can significantly influence perception.
The study also revisited ELIZA, the pioneering chatbot from the 1960s designed to mimic a psychotherapist. While historically significant, ELIZA’s simplistic, rule-based structure resulted in it being identified as non-human in most cases — around 77%. That stark contrast with modern models demonstrates how far natural language processing has progressed over the past six decades.
The comparative results underscore an important point: success in human-AI interaction today depends on language generation and the ability to adapt the tone, context, and emotional resonance. GPT-4.5’s edge seems to come not from mere fluency but from its ability to emulate the subtle cues of human reasoning and expression — a quality that left many test participants second-guessing whether they were even talking to a machine.
The power of persona: How character shaped perception
One of the most intriguing aspects of the UC San Diego study was how assigning specific personas to AI models significantly influenced participants’ perceptions. When GPT-4.5 was framed as an introverted, geeky 19-year-old college student, it consistently scored higher in being perceived as human than when it had no defined personality.
The seemingly small narrative detail was a powerful psychological cue that shaped how people interpreted its responses. The use of persona added a layer of realism to the conversation.
Slight awkwardness, informal phrasing, or quirky responses were not seen as flaws — they were consistent with the character. Participants were more likely to forgive or overlook certain imperfections if those quirks aligned with the model’s ‘personality’.
That finding reveals how intertwined identity and believability are in human communication, even when the identity is entirely artificial. The strategy also echoes something long known in storytelling and branding: people respond to characters, not just content.
In the context of AI, persona functions as a kind of narrative camouflage — not necessarily to deceive, but to disarm. It helps bridge the uncanny valley by offering users a familiar social framework. And as AI continues to evolve, it is clear that shaping how a model is perceived may be just as important as what the model is actually saying.
Limitations of the Turing Test: Beyond the illusion of intelligence
While passing the Turing Test has long been viewed as a milestone in AI, many experts argue that it is not the definitive measure of machine intelligence. The test focuses on imitation — whether an AI can appear human in conversation — rather than on genuine understanding, reasoning, or consciousness. In that sense, it is more about performance than true cognitive capability.
Critics point out that large language models like GPT-4.5 do not ‘understand’ language in the human sense – they generate text by predicting the most statistically probable next word based on patterns in massive datasets. That allows them to generate impressively coherent responses, but it does not equate to comprehension, self-awareness, or independent thought.
No matter how convincing, the illusion of intelligence is still an illusion — and mistaking it for something more can lead to misplaced trust or overreliance. Despite its symbolic power, the Turing Test was never meant to be the final word on AI.
As AI systems grow increasingly sophisticated, new benchmarks are needed — ones that assess linguistic mimicry, reasoning, ethical decision-making, and robustness in real-world environments. Passing the Turing Test may grab headlines, but the real test of intelligence lies far beyond the ability to talk like us.
Wider implications: Rethinking the role of AI in society
GPT-4.5’s success in the Turing Test does not just mark a technical achievement — it forces us to confront deeper societal questions. If AI can convincingly pass as a human in open conversation, what does that mean for trust, communication, and authenticity in our digital lives?
From customer service bots to AI-generated news anchors, the line between human and machine is blurring — and the implications are far from purely academic. These developments are challenging existing norms in areas such as journalism, education, healthcare, and even online dating.
How do we ensure transparency when AI is involved? Should AI be required to disclose its identity in every interaction? And how do we guard against malicious uses — such as deepfake conversations or synthetic personas designed to manipulate, mislead, or exploit?
On a broader level, the emergence of human-sounding AI invites a rethinking of agency and responsibility. If a machine can persuade, sympathise, or influence like a person — who is accountable when things go wrong?
As AI becomes more integrated into the human experience, society must evolve its frameworks not only for regulation and ethics but also for cultural adaptation. GPT-4.5 may have passed the Turing Test, but the test for us, as a society, is just beginning.
What comes next: Human-machine dialogue in the post-Turing era
With GPT-4.5 crossing the Turing threshold, we are no longer asking whether machines can talk like us — we are now asking what that means for how we speak, think, and relate to machines. That moment represents a paradigm shift: from testing the machine’s ability to imitate humans to understanding how humans will adapt to coexist with machines that no longer feel entirely artificial.
Future AI models will likely push this boundary even further — engaging in conversations that are not only coherent but also deeply contextual, emotionally attuned, and morally responsive. The bar for what feels ‘human’ in digital interaction is rising rapidly, and with it comes the need for new social norms, protocols, and perhaps even new literacies.
We will need to learn not only how to talk to machines but how to live with them — as collaborators, counterparts, and, in some cases, as reflections of ourselves. In the post-Turing era, the test is no longer whether machines can fool us — it is whether we can maintain clarity, responsibility, and humanity in a world where the artificial feels increasingly real.
GPT-4.5 may have passed a historic milestone, but the real story is just beginning — not one of machines becoming human, but of humans redefining what it means to be ourselves in dialogue with them.
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Microsoft at 50 – A journey through code, cloud, and AI
The start of a software empire
Microsoft, the American tech giant, was founded 50 years ago, on 4 April 1975, by Harvard dropout Bill Gates and his childhood friend Paul Allen. Since then, the company has evolved from a small startup into the world’s largest software company.
Its early success can be traced back to a pivotal deal in 1975 involving the Altair computer, which inspired the pair to launch the business officially.
That same drive for innovation would later secure Microsoft a breakthrough in 1980 when it partnered with IBM. A collaboration that was supplying the DOS operating system for IBM PCs, a move that turned Microsoft into a household name.
In 1986, Microsoft went public at $21 per share, according to the NASDAQ. A year later, Gates popped up on the billionaire list, the youngest ever to hold the status at the time, at 31 years old.
Microsoft expands its empire
Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Microsoft’s dominance in the software industry grew rapidly, particularly with the introduction of Windows 3.0 in 1990, which sold over 60 million copies and solidified the company’s control over the PC software market.
Over the decades, Microsoft has diversified its portfolio far beyond operating systems. Its Productivity and Business Processes division now includes the ever-popular Office Suite, which caters to both commercial and consumer markets, and the business-focused LinkedIn platform.
Equally significant is Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment, led by its Azure Cloud Services, now the second-largest cloud platform globally, which has transformed the way businesses manage computing infrastructure.
The strategic pivot into cloud computing has been complemented by a range of other products, including SQL Server, Windows Server, and Visual Studio.
The giant under scrutiny
The company’s journey has not been without challenges. Its rapid rise in the 1990s attracted regulatory scrutiny, leading to high-profile antitrust cases and significant fines in both the USA and Europe.
Triggered by concerns over Microsoft’s growing dominance in the personal computer market, US regulators launched a series of investigations into whether the company was actively working to stifle competition.
The initial Federal Trade Commission probe was soon picked up by the Department of Justice, which filed formal charges in 1998. At the heart of the case was Microsoft’s practice of bundling its software, mainly Internet Explorer, with the Windows operating system.
Critics argued that this not only marginalised competitors like Netscape, but also made it difficult for users to install or even access alternative programs.
From Bill Gates to Satya Nadella
Despite these setbacks, Microsoft has continually adapted to the evolving technological landscape. When Steve Ballmer became CEO in 2000, some doubted his leadership, yet Microsoft maintained its stronghold in both business and personal computing.
In the early 2000s, the company overhauled its operating systems under the codename Project Longhorn.
The initiative led to the release of Windows Vista in 2007, which received mixed reactions. However, Windows 7 in 2009 helped Microsoft regain favour, while subsequent updates like Windows 8 and 8.1 aimed to modernise the user experience, especially on tablets.
The transition from Bill Gates to Steve Ballmer, and later to Satya Nadella in 2014, marked a new era of leadership that saw the company’s market capitalisation soar and its focus shift to cloud computing and AI.
Under Nadella’s stewardship, Microsoft has invested heavily in AI, including a notable $1 billion investment in OpenAI in 2019.
The strategic move, alongside the integration of AI features across its software ecosystem, from Microsoft 365 to Bing and Windows, signals the company’s determination to remain at the forefront of technological innovation.
Microsoft’s push for innovation through major acquisitions and investments
Microsoft has consistently demonstrated its commitment to expanding its technological capabilities and market reach through strategic acquisitions.
In 2011, Microsoft made headlines with its $8.5 billion acquisition of Skype, a move intended to rival Apple’s FaceTime and Google Voice by integrating Skype across Microsoft platforms like Outlook and Xbox.
Other strategic acquisitions played a significant role in Microsoft’s evolution. The company purchased LinkedIn, Skype, GitHub and Mojang, the studios behind Minecraft. In recent years, the company has made notable investments in key sectors, including cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity, ΑΙ, and gaming.
One of the most significant acquisitions was Inflection AI in 2024. This deal bolstered Microsoft’s efforts to integrate AI into everyday applications. Personal AI tools, essential for both consumers and businesses, enhance productivity and personalisation.
The acquisition strengthens Microsoft’s position in conversational AI, benefiting platforms such as Microsoft 365, Azure AI, and OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which Microsoft heavily supports.
By enhancing its capabilities in natural language processing and user interaction, this acquisition allows Microsoft to offer more intuitive and personalised AI solutions, helping it compete with companies like Google and Meta.
Microsoft acquires Fungible and Lumenisity for cloud innovation
In a strategic push to enhance its cloud infrastructure, Microsoft has made notable acquisitions in recent years, including Fungible and Lumenisity.
In January 2023, Microsoft acquired Fungible for $190 million. Fungible specialises in data processing units (DPUs), which are crucial for optimising tasks like network routing, security, and workload management.
By integrating Fungible’s technology, Microsoft enhances the operational efficiency of its Azure data centres, cutting costs and energy consumption while offering more cost-effective solutions to enterprise customers. This move positions Microsoft to capitalise on the growing demand for robust cloud services.
Similarly, in December 2022, Microsoft acquired Lumenisity, a company known for its advanced fibre optic technology. Lumenisity’s innovations boost network speed and efficiency, making it ideal for handling high volumes of data traffic.
The move has strengthened Azure’s network infrastructure, improving data transfer speeds and reducing latency, particularly important for areas like the Internet of Things (IoT) and AI-driven workloads that require reliable, high-performance connectivity.
Together, these acquisitions reflect Microsoft’s ongoing commitment to innovation in cloud services and technology infrastructure.
Microsoft expands cybersecurity capabilities with Miburo acquisition
Microsoft has also announced its agreement to acquire Miburo, a leading expert in cyber intelligence and foreign threat analysis. This acquisition further strengthens Microsoft’s commitment to enhancing its cybersecurity solutions and threat detection capabilities.
Miburo, known for its expertise in identifying state-sponsored cyber threats and disinformation campaigns, will be integrated into Microsoft’s Customer Security and Trust organisation.
The acquisition will bolster Microsoft’s existing threat detection platforms, enabling the company to better address emerging cyber threats and state-sanctioned information operations.
Miburo’s analysts will work closely with Microsoft’s Threat Intelligence Center, data scientists, and other security teams to expand the company’s ability to counter complex cyber-attacks and the use of information operations by foreign actors.
Miburo’s mission to protect democracies and ensure the integrity of information environments aligns closely with Microsoft’s goals of safeguarding its customers against malign influences and extremism.
A strategic move that further solidifies Microsoft’s position as a leader in cybersecurity and reinforces its ongoing investment in addressing evolving global security challenges.
Microsoft’s $68.7 billion Activision Blizzard acquisition boosts gaming and the metaverse
Perhaps the most ambitious acquisition in recent years was Activision Blizzard, which Microsoft acquired for $68.7 billion in 2022.
With this purchase, Microsoft significantly expanded its presence in the gaming industry, integrating popular franchises like Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, and Candy Crush into its Xbox ecosystem.
The acquisition not only enhances Xbox’s competitiveness against Sony’s PlayStation but also positions Microsoft as a leader in the metaverse, using gaming as a gateway to immersive digital experiences.
This deal reflects the broader transformation in the gaming industry driven by cloud gaming, virtual reality, and blockchain technology.
A greener future: Microsoft’s sustainability goals
Another crucial element of the company’s business strategy is its dedication to sustainability, which will serve as the foundation of its operations and future objectives.
Microsoft has set ambitious targets to become carbon negative and water positive and achieve zero waste by 2030 while protecting ecosystems.
With a vast global presence spanning over 60 data centre regions, Microsoft leverages its cloud computing infrastructure to optimise both performance and sustainability.
The company’s approach focuses on integrating efficiency into every aspect of its infrastructure, from data centres to custom-built servers and silicon.
A key strategy in Microsoft’s sustainability efforts is its Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), which aim to bring more carbon-free electricity to the grids where the company operates.
By securing over 34 gigawatts of renewable energy across 24 countries, Microsoft is not only advancing its own sustainability goals but also supporting the global transition to clean energy.
Microsoft plans major investment in AI infrastructure
Microsoft has also announced plans to invest $80 billion in building data centres designed to support AI workloads by the end of 2025. A significant portion of this investment, more than half, will be directed towards the USA.
As AI technology continues to grow, Microsoft’s spending includes billions on Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs) to train AI models.
The rapid rise of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, launched in late 2022, has sparked a race among tech companies to develop their own generative AI models.
Having invested more than $13 billion in OpenAI, Microsoft has integrated its AI models into popular products such as Windows and Teams, while also expanding its cloud services through Azure.
Microsoft’s growth strategy shapes the future of tech innovation
All these acquisitions and investments reflect a cohesive strategy aimed at enhancing Microsoft’s leadership in key technology areas.
From AI and gaming to cybersecurity and cloud infrastructure, the company is positioning itself at the forefront of digital transformation. However, while these deals present significant growth opportunities, they also pose challenges.
Ensuring successful integration, managing regulatory scrutiny, and creating synergies between acquired entities will be key to Microsoft’s long-term success. In conclusion, Microsoft’s strategy highlights its dedication to innovation and technology leadership.
From its humble beginnings converting BASIC for Altair to its current status as a leader in cloud and AI, Microsoft’s story is one of constant reinvention and enduring influence in the digital age.
By diversifying across multiple sectors, including gaming, cloud computing, AI, and cybersecurity, the company is building a robust foundation for future growth.
A digital business model that not only reinforces Microsoft’s market position but also plays a vital role in shaping the future of technology.
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