NVIDIA eyes recovery in China after export deal ahead of Q2 report

NVIDIA is due to report its Q2 2026 financial results after the US market closes on 27 August, and analysts are expecting strong performance.

Consensus forecasts place revenue at around US $45.9 billion, up about 50 percent year-on-year, driven by ongoing demand for Blackwell GPUs, data centre expansion and redistribution of AI infrastructure investments globally.

Export changes are also pivotal. After entering a deal to resume H20 chip sales to China, despite revenue-sharing conditions, NVIDIA could reclaim as much as US$8 billion during Q2, mitigating past losses caused by restrictions.

Beyond geopolitical shifts, the Blackwell Ultra GPU is central to growth. Offering up to 50 times faster AI inference than earlier models, it is increasingly stocked by cloud providers and hyperscalers. Markets view this as a strategic advantage, fueling long-term AI momentum.

Risks remain. Gross margins may recover from prior pressure due to licensing charges, but margin expansion depends on supply and TAM realisation. China’s policy environment is also uncertain, making future guidance cautious for some analysts.

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Sam Altman says US is misjudging China’s AI rise

OpenAI chief Sam Altman has warned that the US may be underestimating China’s rapid advancement in AI.

Speaking to CNBC, Altman explained that China’s use of open-source models and its manufacturing capacity may allow it to move faster in some areas of development.

He questioned the effectiveness of export controls, noting that chip restrictions may not be enough to curb long-term innovation. Chinese firms like DeepSeek and MoonshotAI are gaining traction with open-weight models that rival US offerings in cost and capability.

Altman’s comments echo concerns voiced earlier by Nvidia’s CEO, who said firms like Huawei continue to grow despite restrictions.

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Sam Altman urges rethink of US–China AI strategy

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has warned that the United States may be underestimating China’s rapid advances in AI. He argued that export controls on semiconductors are unlikely to be a reliable long-term solution to the global AI race.

At a press briefing in San Francisco, Altman said the competition cannot be reduced to a simple scoreboard. China can expand inference capacity more quickly, even as Washington tightens restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports.

He expressed doubts about the effectiveness of purely policy-driven approaches. ‘You can export-control one thing, but maybe not the right thing… workarounds exist,’ Altman said. He stressed that chip controls may not keep pace with technological realities.

His comments come as US policy becomes increasingly complex. President Trump halted advanced chip supplies in April, while the Biden administration recently allowed ‘China-safe’ chips, requiring Nvidia and AMD to share revenue. Critics call the rules contradictory and difficult to enforce.

Meanwhile, Chinese firms are accelerating efforts to replace US suppliers, with Huawei and others building domestic alternatives. Altman suggested this push for self-sufficiency could undermine Washington’s goals, raising questions about America’s strategy in the AI race.

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Nvidia prepares new AI chip for China amid Washington’s hesitation

As if Trump’s recent shifts in chip export policy regarding the scaled-down chip models were not enough to reopen supply to the Chinese market, after all the earlier tariffs and bans, Nvidia is now quietly developing a new AI chip for China, even as Washington continues to debate how much cutting-edge US technology Beijing should be allowed to access.

According to Nvidia’s latest statements, the chip, codenamed B30A, will be based on Nvidia’s latest Blackwell architecture and is expected to outperform the company’s current China-approved model, the H20.

Namely, the novelty comes just days after President Donald Trump weighed permitting scaled-down versions of Nvidia’s most advanced chips to be sold in China. His comments marked a potential shift in US policy, but the approval remains uncertain, with lawmakers in both parties warning that even weaker versions of top-end chips could still give Beijing an edge in the global AI race.

Technically, the B30A will be less potent than Nvidia’s flagship B300, but it retains advanced features such as high-bandwidth memory and NVLink connectivity, which are crucial for fast data processing.

Nvidia hopes to send early samples to Chinese customers next month, though final specifications have yet to be confirmed.

‘Everything we offer is with full government approval and designed for commercial use,’ the company said in a statement.

The stakes are high, as China accounted for 13% of Nvidia’s revenue last year, and losing that market could push customers toward domestic rivals like Huawei.

Analysts note that Huawei’s chips are improving, particularly in raw computing power, though they still lag in software support and memory performance, areas where Nvidia remains dominant.

At the same time, Beijing has been pushing back. Chinese experts recently raised concerns that Nvidia’s chips could pose security risks, and regulators have reportedly warned Chinese tech firms about buying the H20.

Nvidia denies any such vulnerabilities, but the warnings illustrate how political friction is weighing on commercial strategy.

Alongside the B30A, Nvidia is also preparing another chip, the RTX6000D, built for AI inference rather than training. That model has weaker specifications designed to comply with strict US export thresholds.

Nvidia plans to start shipping small batches of the RTX6000D to Chinese clients as early as September, which seems to indicate that the company is trying to balance Washington’s restrictions with the need to preserve its foothold in one of the world’s most lucrative AI markets.

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China shifts to cold storage for seized crypto

Authorities in China’s Guizhou Province have begun using joint custody centres and cold wallets to manage cryptocurrencies seized from unlawful activities, particularly in Duyun City. The move represents a strategic adjustment amid the country’s ongoing ban on crypto trading.

Adopting cold storage and joint custody addresses practical challenges in preserving and disposing of seized assets. Experts warn that selling seized crypto could breach trading bans, cause risk compliance issues, and cause market disruption.

China’s approach may influence international handling and regulation of digital assets. Analysts suggest these protocols could integrate regulatory compliance with financial stability goals, shaping broader policies for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies worldwide.

Scholars describe the current measures as temporary solutions that do not fully align with the nation’s crypto prohibition.

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Weekly #225 – Trump’s US-China chip export policy shifts, ODI’s manifesto and the EU AI and data policy, Musk–Altman antitrust battle

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8 – 15 August 2025


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Dear readers,

In the past seven days, US–China tensions over AI chip exports unexpectedly reversed. The Trump administration pushed ahead with an unprecedented export-for-revenue-sharing model, and Beijing quietly countered.  Namely, Washington granted Nvidia and AMD permission to resume sales of specific lower-end AI processors to China, including Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308, on the condition that 15% of related revenue goes directly to the US government. The administration framed the move as both commercially advantageous and strategically valuable, arguing it keeps Chinese AI development tied to less advanced US technology.

During the following days, President Trump said he is open to allowing a 30-50% less powerful version of Nvidia’s flagship Blackwell chip into the Chinese market. The proposal has fueled bipartisan concerns in Washington that even degraded chips could help Beijing accelerate its AI advancement. Critics, including Republican and Democratic lawmakers, condemned the decision and warned that monetising export licenses risks turning US national security policy into a ‘pay-for-play’ system, undermining the traditional principle that such controls are non-negotiable.

Beijing has responded with quiet but firm resistance, since regulators have instructed major Chinese tech companies, including Tencent, Baidu, and ByteDance, to avoid using Nvidia’s H20 chips, particularly in government or security-related projects, and to favour domestic options such as Huawei processors. Media have amplified doubts over the security and reliability of the US hardware, while officials signal a long-term push toward semiconductor self-sufficiency. At this point, we can pose the following question: Is Washington trying to balance economic gain and strategic control while Beijing is working to insulate its tech sector from foreign dependence?

In other news, the Open Data Institute (ODI) has published a manifesto setting out six principles for shaping the EU policy on AI and data. Aiming to support policymakers, it aligns with the EU’s upcoming digital reforms, including the AI Act and the bloc’s digital framework review.

Elon Musk has accused Apple of favouring ChatGPT on its App Store and threatened legal action, sparking a clash with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Musk called Apple’s practices an antitrust violation and vowed to take immediate action through his AI company, xAI. Critics on X noted rivals like DeepSeek AI and Perplexity AI have topped the App Store this year. Altman called Musk’s claim ‘remarkable’ on X, adding that Musk was alleged to ‘manipulate X to benefit himself and his own companies and harm his competitors and people he doesn’t like.’ Musk called him a ‘liar,’ prompting demands for proof he never altered X’s algorithm. 

Bitcoin surged past $124,000, marking a fresh record, as positive US regulatory sentiment and expectations of upcoming rate cuts fueled gains. Ethereum is also near its yearly peak, riding broader bullish momentum across top cryptocurrencies.

One of the standout billionaire trade offers of the week is Perplexity AI’s unexpected US$34.5 billion bid to acquire Google’s Chrome browser, a move that could align with antitrust measures currently under consideration in the US.

Russian authorities have begun partially restricting calls on Telegram and WhatsApp, citing the need for crime prevention. Regulator Roskomnadzor accused the platforms of enabling fraud, extortion, and terrorism while ignoring repeated requests to act.

For the main updates, reflections and events, consult the RADAR, the READING CORNER and the UPCOMING EVENTS section below.

Join us as we connect the dots, from daily updates to main weekly developments, to bring you a clear, engaging monthly snapshot of worldwide digital trends.

DW Team


RADAR

Highlights from the week of 8 – 15 August 2025

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The wider cryptocurrency market is thriving, with top 100 coins recording double-digit weekly gains amid a shift towards high-growth digital assets.

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The humanoid robot market in China is projected to grow from $2.24 billion in 2024 to $41 billion by 2032 amid rapid AI advances and government support.

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Tested by medical experts, NASA’s AI assistant shows promising accuracy in treating common ailments.

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The AI-driven system achieves near-perfect qubit operations and could allow atom-based quantum computers to scale to tens of thousands of qubits.

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Despite fears, Cameron nonetheless suggests AI superintelligence might also help solve humanity’s biggest challenges.

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Reports of wrongful Instagram account suspensions have led to a petition urging Meta to address moderation errors and clarify the impact of recent policy updates.

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GPT-5 promises better reasoning and fewer hallucinations, but critics say responses are shorter, slower, and less engaging.

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Persistent technical issues with Huawei’s AI chips have forced DeepSeek to delay its R2 model launch and rely on Nvidia for training.

Legal risks for blockchain privacy tools are increasing as Carrone faces charges in Türkiye connected to his work on privacy protocols.


READING CORNER
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The European Accessibility Act (EAA) is here. Learn what this landmark law means for digital accessibility, businesses, and users with disabilities across the EU.

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DeepSeek delays next AI model amid Huawei chip challenges

Chinese AI company DeepSeek has postponed the launch of its R2 model after repeated technical problems using Huawei’s Ascend processors for training. The delay highlights Beijing’s ongoing struggle to replace US-made chips with domestic alternatives.

Authorities had encouraged DeepSeek to shift from Nvidia hardware to Huawei’s chips after the release of its R1 model in January. However, training failures, slower inter-chip connections, stability issues, and weaker software performance led the start-up to revert to Nvidia chips for training, while continuing to explore Ascend for inference tasks.

Despite Huawei deploying engineers to assist on-site, DeepSeek was unable to complete a successful training run using Ascend processors. The company is also contending with extended data-labelling timelines for its updated model, adding to the delays.

The situation underscores how far Chinese chip technology lags behind Nvidia for advanced AI development, even as Beijing pressures domestic firms to use local products. Industry observers say Huawei is facing “growing pains” but could close the gap over time. Meanwhile, competitors like Alibaba’s Qwen3 have integrated elements of DeepSeek’s design more efficiently, intensifying market pressure.

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India must ramp up AI and chip production to meet global competition

At the Emkay Confluence in Mumbai, Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran emphasised that while trade-related concerns remain significant, they must not obscure the urgent need for India to boost its AI and semiconductor sectors.

He pointed to AI’s transformative economic potential and strategic importance, warning that India must act decisively to remain competitive as the United States and China advance aggressively in these domains.

By focusing on energy transition, energy security, and enhanced collaboration across sectors, Nageswaran argued that India can strengthen its innovation capacity and technological self-reliance.

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China debuts quantum-embedded GNN for drug discovery

According to Science and Technology Daily, Chinese researchers have reported a breakthrough in quantum drug discovery using edge encoding. Origin Quantum, USTC, and the Hefei AI Institute built a quantum-embedded graph neural network (GNN) to predict drug-molecule properties.

In drug development, graph neural networks model molecules as atoms and bonds. Classical and some quantum approaches handle atoms well but struggle with bonds. The gap limits accuracy and screening speed.

The team from China introduced quantum edge and node embeddings to process bonds and atoms simultaneously at the quantum level. The quantum-embedded GNN unifies both signals in one pass. Results show sharper predictions for the properties of candidate drugs.

Validation on the Origin Wukong quantum computer indicates stable performance despite today’s noisy hardware. Benchmarking suggests efficiency gains for molecular screening pipelines. Researchers say the approach is production-oriented as devices scale.

Findings appear in the Journal of Chemical Information and Modelling. Collaboration highlights China’s push to integrate quantum computing with biopharmaceutical research and development. More exhaustive testing on larger qubit counts is anticipated.

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Meta leads booming AI smart glasses market in first half of 2025

According to Counterpoint Research, global shipments of smart glasses more than doubled in the first half of 2025, fuelled by soaring demand for AI-powered models.

The segment accounted for 78% of shipments, outpacing basic audio-enabled smart frames.

Meta led the market with over 73% share, primarily driven by the success of its Ray-Ban AI glasses. Rising competition came from Chinese firms, including Huawei, RayNeo, and Xiaomi, emerging as a surprise contender with its new AI glasses.

Analysts attribute the surge to growing consumer interest in AI-integrated wearable tech, with Meta and Xiaomi’s latest releases generating strong sales momentum.

Competition is expected to intensify as companies such as Alibaba and ByteDance enter the space in the second half of the year.

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