Quantum computing threatens Bitcoin: Experts debate timeline
IBM and Google’s quantum breakthroughs have sparked new warnings that Bitcoin’s cryptographic protections may fall within a decade.
Recent breakthroughs in quantum computing have revived fears about the long-term security of Bitcoin (BTC).
With IBM aiming to release the first fault-tolerant quantum computer, the IBM Quantum Starling, by 2029, experts are increasingly concerned that such advancements could undermine Bitcoin’s cryptographic backbone.
Bitcoin currently relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) and the SHA-256 hashing algorithm to secure wallets and transactions. However, both are potentially vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm, which a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could exploit.
Google quantum researcher Craig Gidney warned in May 2025 that quantum resources required to break RSA encryption had been significantly overestimated. Although Bitcoin uses ECC, not RSA, Gidney’s research hinted at a threat window between 2030 and 2035 for crypto systems.
Opinions on the timeline vary. Adam Back, Blockstream CEO and early Bitcoin advocate, believes a quantum threat is still at least two decades away. However, he admitted that future progress could force users to migrate coins to quantum-safe wallets—potentially even Satoshi Nakamoto’s dormant holdings.
Others are more alarmed. David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, claimed in a June 2025 op-ed that Bitcoin could be cracked within five years, pointing to emerging technologies like Microsoft’s Majorana chip. He estimated that nearly 30% of BTC is stored in quantum-vulnerable addresses.
‘Just one breach could destroy trust in the entire ecosystem,’ Carvalho warned, noting that BlackRock has already acknowledged the quantum risk in its Bitcoin ETF filings.
Echoing this urgency, billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya said in late 2024 that SHA-256 could be broken within two to five years if companies scale quantum chips like Google’s 105-qubit Willow. He urged the crypto industry to start updating encryption protocols before it’s too late.
While truly fault-tolerant quantum machines capable of breaking Bitcoin are not yet available, the accelerating pace of research suggests that preparing for a quantum future is no longer optional—it’s a necessity.
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