IGF panel urges rethinking internet governance amid rising geopolitical tensions

At the 2025 Internet Governance Forum in Lillestrøm, Norway, a session led by the German Federal Ministry for Digital Transformation spotlighted a bold foresight exercise imagining how global internet governance could evolve by 2040. Co-led by researcher Julia Pohler, the initiative involved a diverse 15-member German task force and interviews with international experts, including Anriette Esterhuysen and Gbenga Sesan.

Their work yielded four starkly different future scenarios, ranging from intensified geopolitical rivalry and internet fragmentation to overregulation and a transformative turn toward treating the internet as a public good. A central takeaway was the resurgence of state power as a dominant force shaping digital futures.

According to Pohler, geopolitical dynamics—especially the actions of the US, China, Russia, and the EU—emerged as the primary drivers across nearly all scenarios. That marked a shift from previous foresight efforts that had emphasised civil society or corporate actors.

The panellists underscored that today’s real-world developments are already outpacing the scenarios’ predictions, with multistakeholder models appearing increasingly hollow or overly institutionalised. While the scenarios themselves might not predict the exact future, the process of creating them was widely praised.

Panellists described the interviews and collaborative exercises as intellectually enriching and essential for thinking beyond conventional governance paradigms. Yet, they also acknowledged practical concerns: the abstract nature of such exercises, the lack of direct implementation, and the need to involve government actors more directly to bridge analysis and policy action.

Looking ahead, participants called for bolder and more inclusive approaches to internet governance. They urged forums like the IGF to embrace participatory methods—such as scenario games—and to address complex issues without requiring full consensus.

The session concluded with a sense of urgency: the internet we want may still be possible, but only if we confront uncomfortable realities and make space for more courageous, creative policymaking.

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