Weekly #225 – Trump’s US-China chip export policy shifts, ODI’s manifesto and the EU AI and data policy, Musk–Altman antitrust battle

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8 – 15 August 2025


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Dear readers,

In the past seven days, US–China tensions over AI chip exports unexpectedly reversed. The Trump administration pushed ahead with an unprecedented export-for-revenue-sharing model, and Beijing quietly countered.  Namely, Washington granted Nvidia and AMD permission to resume sales of specific lower-end AI processors to China, including Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308, on the condition that 15% of related revenue goes directly to the US government. The administration framed the move as both commercially advantageous and strategically valuable, arguing it keeps Chinese AI development tied to less advanced US technology.

During the following days, President Trump said he is open to allowing a 30-50% less powerful version of Nvidia’s flagship Blackwell chip into the Chinese market. The proposal has fueled bipartisan concerns in Washington that even degraded chips could help Beijing accelerate its AI advancement. Critics, including Republican and Democratic lawmakers, condemned the decision and warned that monetising export licenses risks turning US national security policy into a ‘pay-for-play’ system, undermining the traditional principle that such controls are non-negotiable.

Beijing has responded with quiet but firm resistance, since regulators have instructed major Chinese tech companies, including Tencent, Baidu, and ByteDance, to avoid using Nvidia’s H20 chips, particularly in government or security-related projects, and to favour domestic options such as Huawei processors. Media have amplified doubts over the security and reliability of the US hardware, while officials signal a long-term push toward semiconductor self-sufficiency. At this point, we can pose the following question: Is Washington trying to balance economic gain and strategic control while Beijing is working to insulate its tech sector from foreign dependence?

In other news, the Open Data Institute (ODI) has published a manifesto setting out six principles for shaping the EU policy on AI and data. Aiming to support policymakers, it aligns with the EU’s upcoming digital reforms, including the AI Act and the bloc’s digital framework review.

Elon Musk has accused Apple of favouring ChatGPT on its App Store and threatened legal action, sparking a clash with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Musk called Apple’s practices an antitrust violation and vowed to take immediate action through his AI company, xAI. Critics on X noted rivals like DeepSeek AI and Perplexity AI have topped the App Store this year. Altman called Musk’s claim ‘remarkable’ on X, adding that Musk was alleged to ‘manipulate X to benefit himself and his own companies and harm his competitors and people he doesn’t like.’ Musk called him a ‘liar,’ prompting demands for proof he never altered X’s algorithm. 

Bitcoin surged past $124,000, marking a fresh record, as positive US regulatory sentiment and expectations of upcoming rate cuts fueled gains. Ethereum is also near its yearly peak, riding broader bullish momentum across top cryptocurrencies.

One of the standout billionaire trade offers of the week is Perplexity AI’s unexpected US$34.5 billion bid to acquire Google’s Chrome browser, a move that could align with antitrust measures currently under consideration in the US.

Russian authorities have begun partially restricting calls on Telegram and WhatsApp, citing the need for crime prevention. Regulator Roskomnadzor accused the platforms of enabling fraud, extortion, and terrorism while ignoring repeated requests to act.

For the main updates, reflections and events, consult the RADAR, the READING CORNER and the UPCOMING EVENTS section below.

Join us as we connect the dots, from daily updates to main weekly developments, to bring you a clear, engaging monthly snapshot of worldwide digital trends.

DW Team


RADAR

Highlights from the week of 8 – 15 August 2025

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Quantum computing is moving from labs to industries in 2025, with breakthroughs transforming finance, healthcare and security.

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The wider cryptocurrency market is thriving, with top 100 coins recording double-digit weekly gains amid a shift towards high-growth digital assets.

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DeepSeek’s low-resource AI success challenges US dominance and spurs OpenAI’s open-weight model release.

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The humanoid robot market in China is projected to grow from $2.24 billion in 2024 to $41 billion by 2032 amid rapid AI advances and government support.

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The UAE Ministry of Interior confirms the use of AI, surveillance, and modern laws to fight crime, noting that data analysis and legal updates are improving investigations.

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Tested by medical experts, NASA’s AI assistant shows promising accuracy in treating common ailments.

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CEO Elon Musk ends in-house AI chip development, shifting staff to other projects.

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The AI-driven system achieves near-perfect qubit operations and could allow atom-based quantum computers to scale to tens of thousands of qubits.

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Despite fears, Cameron nonetheless suggests AI superintelligence might also help solve humanity’s biggest challenges.

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Reports of wrongful Instagram account suspensions have led to a petition urging Meta to address moderation errors and clarify the impact of recent policy updates.

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GPT-5 promises better reasoning and fewer hallucinations, but critics say responses are shorter, slower, and less engaging.

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Persistent technical issues with Huawei’s AI chips have forced DeepSeek to delay its R2 model launch and rely on Nvidia for training.

Legal risks for blockchain privacy tools are increasing as Carrone faces charges in Türkiye connected to his work on privacy protocols.


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DeepSeek delays next AI model amid Huawei chip challenges

Chinese AI company DeepSeek has postponed the launch of its R2 model after repeated technical problems using Huawei’s Ascend processors for training. The delay highlights Beijing’s ongoing struggle to replace US-made chips with domestic alternatives.

Authorities had encouraged DeepSeek to shift from Nvidia hardware to Huawei’s chips after the release of its R1 model in January. However, training failures, slower inter-chip connections, stability issues, and weaker software performance led the start-up to revert to Nvidia chips for training, while continuing to explore Ascend for inference tasks.

Despite Huawei deploying engineers to assist on-site, DeepSeek was unable to complete a successful training run using Ascend processors. The company is also contending with extended data-labelling timelines for its updated model, adding to the delays.

The situation underscores how far Chinese chip technology lags behind Nvidia for advanced AI development, even as Beijing pressures domestic firms to use local products. Industry observers say Huawei is facing “growing pains” but could close the gap over time. Meanwhile, competitors like Alibaba’s Qwen3 have integrated elements of DeepSeek’s design more efficiently, intensifying market pressure.

Would you like to learn more about AI, tech and digital diplomacy? If so, ask our Diplo chatbot!

India must ramp up AI and chip production to meet global competition

At the Emkay Confluence in Mumbai, Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran emphasised that while trade-related concerns remain significant, they must not obscure the urgent need for India to boost its AI and semiconductor sectors.

He pointed to AI’s transformative economic potential and strategic importance, warning that India must act decisively to remain competitive as the United States and China advance aggressively in these domains.

By focusing on energy transition, energy security, and enhanced collaboration across sectors, Nageswaran argued that India can strengthen its innovation capacity and technological self-reliance.

Would you like to learn more about AI, tech and digital diplomacy? If so, ask our Diplo chatbot!

China debuts quantum-embedded GNN for drug discovery

According to Science and Technology Daily, Chinese researchers have reported a breakthrough in quantum drug discovery using edge encoding. Origin Quantum, USTC, and the Hefei AI Institute built a quantum-embedded graph neural network (GNN) to predict drug-molecule properties.

In drug development, graph neural networks model molecules as atoms and bonds. Classical and some quantum approaches handle atoms well but struggle with bonds. The gap limits accuracy and screening speed.

The team from China introduced quantum edge and node embeddings to process bonds and atoms simultaneously at the quantum level. The quantum-embedded GNN unifies both signals in one pass. Results show sharper predictions for the properties of candidate drugs.

Validation on the Origin Wukong quantum computer indicates stable performance despite today’s noisy hardware. Benchmarking suggests efficiency gains for molecular screening pipelines. Researchers say the approach is production-oriented as devices scale.

Findings appear in the Journal of Chemical Information and Modelling. Collaboration highlights China’s push to integrate quantum computing with biopharmaceutical research and development. More exhaustive testing on larger qubit counts is anticipated.

Would you like to learn more about AI, tech, and digital diplomacy? If so, ask our Diplo chatbot!

Meta leads booming AI smart glasses market in first half of 2025

According to Counterpoint Research, global shipments of smart glasses more than doubled in the first half of 2025, fuelled by soaring demand for AI-powered models.

The segment accounted for 78% of shipments, outpacing basic audio-enabled smart frames.

Meta led the market with over 73% share, primarily driven by the success of its Ray-Ban AI glasses. Rising competition came from Chinese firms, including Huawei, RayNeo, and Xiaomi, emerging as a surprise contender with its new AI glasses.

Analysts attribute the surge to growing consumer interest in AI-integrated wearable tech, with Meta and Xiaomi’s latest releases generating strong sales momentum.

Competition is expected to intensify as companies such as Alibaba and ByteDance enter the space in the second half of the year.

Would you like to learn more about AI, tech and digital diplomacy? If so, ask our Diplo chatbot!

China pushes back on Nvidia chip sales, undercutting Trump’s proposed export deal

China is quietly urging domestic companies to steer clear of Nvidia’s H20 processors, especially for government or security-related projects, throwing a wrench into US efforts to turn those sales into a revenue source for Washington.

Over recent weeks, Chinese authorities have sent private notices to firms questioning their reliance on US chips and promoting domestic alternatives.

The guidance comes just as Nvidia and AMD gained approval from the Trump administration to resume selling certain AI chips to China, under a rare arrangement that requires the companies to share 15% of related revenue with the US government.

While the directive stops short of an outright ban, Beijing has placed the H20 under the same kind of partial restrictions previously imposed on Tesla vehicles, Apple iPhones, and Micron chips, citing security concerns.

Officials have floated fears that Nvidia hardware could carry location-tracking or remote shutdown features, claims the company firmly denies. At the same time, China is accelerating efforts to boost its homegrown semiconductor industry, urging firms to shift away from Western technology in favour of local suppliers, such as Huawei, even though domestic capacity still falls short of market demand.

The campaign highlights a broader geopolitical irony: US officials defended the resumption of H20 exports by arguing that the chip was already widely available in China and technologically inferior to top US models.

Trump has called it ‘obsolete,’ framing the sales as a way to keep Chinese AI systems dependent on American-made, less advanced hardware.

Behind the scenes, officials have linked the deal to a broader trade arrangement involving Chinese rare-earth minerals, though Beijing has publicly denied any such quid pro quo.

For Nvidia, the H20 remains strategically important. Although less potent than its flagship Blackwell series, the chip’s high memory bandwidth makes it well-suited for AI inference, a crucial stage in which models interpret and respond to data.

Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent have sought the H20 to offset supply shortages from Huawei, which is struggling to produce enough advanced chips to meet domestic demand.

Analysts warn that losing access to the H20 could raise the cost of running AI models in China by up to six times.

Still, Beijing’s stance appears to be a balancing act. RAND researcher Lennart Heim notes that China uses regulatory pressure to channel demand toward Huawei without cutting off access to Nvidia products, ensuring that companies can still meet their needs while domestic capabilities mature.

However, the Chinese government’s selective pressure could deepen uncertainty for US chipmakers counting on China, the world’s largest semiconductor market, to offset lost sales elsewhere.

While Washington’s new export-for-revenue-sharing model is already unprecedented, Beijing’s countermeasures show that even approved sales may face political headwinds.

For Nvidia and AMD, the challenge is no longer just securing US permission, but also convincing China to buy.

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Trump’s potential Nvidia deal with China raises national security risks

The US President Donald Trump has shattered decades of US national security precedent by striking a deal with Nvidia and AMD that allows the sale of certain banned AI chips to China, but at a certain price.

In an arrangement without modern parallels, the companies will resume exports of their H20 processors to the Chinese market in exchange for giving the US government a 15% share of related revenues.

The move reopens a channel for sensitive technology sales and introduces a transactional element into what had long been treated as a matter of uncompromising national security.

For decades, Washington’s export controls on strategic technologies were blunt instruments: if a product was deemed too sensitive, no amount of corporate lobbying or lost revenue could override the ban.

Trump’s approach breaks from that tradition, effectively monetising access to restricted technologies. He has even floated the idea of allowing a weakened version of Nvidia’s cutting-edge Blackwell chip to be sold in China, a possibility that has set off alarm bells among national security hawks.

Republican and Democratic lawmakers have condemned the decision, warning it risks transforming US security policy into a ‘pay-for-play’ system.

Representative John Moolenaar, who chairs the House Select Committee on China, argued that export controls should remain a first line of defence against adversaries, not a bargaining chip. His Democratic counterpart, Raja Krishnamoorthi, cautioned that putting a dollar value on national security sends the wrong message to both allies and rivals.

The Trump administration has defended the arrangement by downplaying the risk. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called the H20 Nvidia’s ‘fourth-best’ chip, noting that it is already widely used in China. The administration also framed the move to keep Chinese companies tied to US technology rather than turning to rival suppliers. Yet questions loom over the legality of the revenue-sharing scheme.

Trade experts have raised the possibility that it could be interpreted as an export tax, something the US Constitution prohibits, though details of the agreement remain opaque.

Beyond legal debates, the financial implications are significant. Analysts predict the levy could cut gross margins on China-bound chips by as much as 15 percentage points, trimming overall profitability for Nvidia and AMD.

In turn, this change of course could prompt other US companies selling strategic goods to China, from aerospace to advanced materials, to wonder if they too will face similar revenue-sharing requirements.

For some, it could be a costly burden; for others, it might be the only way to retain access to China’s lucrative market.

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Trump weighs scaled-down Nvidia chip sales to China

President Donald Trump has signalled that he may permit Nvidia to sell a toned-down version of its latest Blackwell AI chip to China, which could substantially shift US tech export policy.

The idea, still under discussion with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, would involve reducing the chip’s computing power by 30% to 50%, creating what Trump described as an ‘unenhanced’ model for the Chinese market. While framed as a compromise, critics warn that even these stripped-down chips could fuel Beijing’s AI ambitions.

The announcement follows an unprecedented agreement between the Trump administration, Nvidia, and AMD, under which the US government would collect 15% of revenue from certain AI chip sales to China.

Washington insiders have expressed unease, noting that, with enough scaled-down hardware, China could still build AI supercomputers capable of competing with or surpassing American capabilities.

Saif Khan, a former White House technology adviser, cautioned that the move could accelerate China’s path toward AI dominance, undoing years of strict export controls.

Currently, Nvidia’s most advanced chip approved for sale in China is the H20, built on older Hopper architecture. The H20 was specifically designed to comply with restrictions imposed under President Biden and entered the Chinese market in 2024.

Although shipments were halted earlier this year, the Trump administration recently granted clearance for exports to resume. Trump dismissed the H20 as ‘obsolete’ and claimed China had already mastered it, suggesting the new Blackwell variant would offer a fresh revenue stream while staying within national security boundaries.

Nvidia’s flagship US Blackwell chip, unveiled in March 2024, is up to 30 times faster than its predecessor, making it a significant leap in AI performance. Details about the proposed Chinese variant remain undisclosed, but Reuters previously reported it would come at a lower cost and reduced power.

The US Commerce Department has begun issuing licenses for the H20, with officials insisting these exports do not threaten national security.

For Nvidia and AMD, the deal represents a rare case of direct government revenue-sharing tied to foreign sales, reflecting Trump’s hands-on approach to corporate negotiations. His administration has previously pressured tech executives to prioritise domestic manufacturing and has intervened in leadership appointments.

Nvidia, for its part, has stated it will follow all US export rules, while AMD confirmed receiving approval to ship some AI processors to China without directly addressing the revenue-sharing clause.

Beijing’s reaction so far has been muted. China’s foreign ministry declined to comment on the potential Blackwell deal but has repeatedly accused Washington of using technology controls to ‘maliciously contain and suppress’ Chinese industry.

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Beijing 2025 Robot Conference highlights China’s humanoid robotics growth

The 2025 World Robot Conference in Beijing has drawn significant attention to China’s growing humanoid robotics industry. With over 60 humanoid robots on display, the event attracted investors and tech enthusiasts alike, generating a surge in stock prices for companies such as Unitree Robotics.

The conference showcased robots performing diverse activities from industrial operations to more human-like tasks, including marathons and kickboxing, highlighting rapid AI advancements.

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has supported the sector strongly, aiming for mass production and widespread adoption by 2027. The market, valued at $2.24 billion in 2024, is expected to grow to $41 billion by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of nearly 44%.

New manufacturing facilities and advances such as carbon fibre materials are boosting the durability and agility of these robots, while companies are focusing on AI integration and teamwork capabilities.

Despite the promising outlook, challenges like high costs, AI learning complexities, and potential overvaluation remain. Experts acknowledge China is closing the gap in humanoid robotics innovation, though technical hurdles persist.

The event underscores the significant role humanoid robots could play in reshaping industries and everyday life, supported by both state initiatives and private investment.

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Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% share of China AI chip revenue to secure US export licences

Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to hand 15% of their Chinese AI chip sales revenue to the US government in return for export licences.

The arrangement, covering Nvidia’s H20 accelerator and AMD’s MI308 model, is considered unusual and could prove contentious for both companies and Beijing.

The deal reflects Washington’s willingness to link trade concessions to financial payments, but analysts note there is little precedent for such a targeted export levy.

Critics warn the move could undermine the national security rationale for export controls, making it harder to convince allies to adopt similar measures. Beijing, meanwhile, has voiced security concerns over the H20 chip’s performance and alleged vulnerabilities.

Industry observers suggest the payment requirement could discourage further expansion by US chipmakers in China, the world’s largest semiconductor importer, and give local producers an advantage in building domestic capacity.

Chinese firms such as Huawei are already increasing market share amid tighter restrictions on US technology.

The potential sums involved are significant. Before restrictions were imposed, Nvidia had generated over $7 billion in H20 sales to China in a single quarter. In comparison, AMD could earn up to $5 billion annually if full access to the market resumed.

However, uncertainties over demand and regulatory conditions remain.

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