DW Newsletter # 194 – The rise of OpenAI and Sam Altman’s role in the AI and AGI revolution

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Dear readers,

In November 2022, OpenAI launched ChatGPT, a product redefining AI and catapulting its CEO, Sam Altman, into global prominence. The once-quiet startup suddenly became a sensation, drawing over 100 million visitors within two months. Altman, a long-time advocate of artificial general intelligence (AGI), saw his vision materialise despite early scepticism and the challenges in establishing OpenAI. Today, OpenAI stands at the forefront of the AI industry, shaping the future of technology and society.

Altman’s journey with OpenAI began with bold ambitions to build AGI—a concept dismissed as fringe in 2014. By assembling a team of young, unconventional thinkers, OpenAI distinguished itself from other Silicon Valley ventures. Over the years, the company evolved from a nonprofit to a for-profit hybrid, adapting to secure resources for its ambitious goals. The launch of ChatGPT marked a turning point, rapidly scaling OpenAI’s user base and solidifying its status as a leader in AI innovation. Altman’s decisive leadership and relentless focus on scaling and improving its technology have positioned OpenAI as a trailblazer in the global AI race.

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However, in late 2023, OpenAI’s board abruptly dismissed Altman as CEO, only to reinstate him days after internal pushback and public outcry. The episode underscored the challenges of managing a mission-driven company operating at the cutting edge of technology. Despite the turmoil, Altman emerged stronger, steering OpenAI through regulatory challenges and rapid growth while grappling with the societal implications of AGI.

The intersections of technology and politics became increasingly evident, with Altman playing a strategic role in fostering AI’s development under the Trump administration. Despite ideological differences, Altman donated to Trump’s inaugural fund, emphasising the importance of bipartisan cooperation in navigating the profound societal shifts AI will bring. Despite his often unpredictable behaviour, Altman also expressed optimism that Elon Musk would not misuse his growing political influence to undermine competitors like OpenAI.

Altman’s focus remains on ensuring the US leads in AI development, advocating for a streamlined regulatory framework to enable the construction of critical infrastructure such as data centres and power plants. OpenAI’s success, Altman argues, hinges not only on technological breakthroughs but also on policy and leadership that enable the country to maintain its edge in the AI race. As the Trump administration takes the reins, the stakes for balancing innovation, ethics, and governance have never been higher.

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Highlights from the week of 03-10 January 2025

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Internal documents suggest TikTok was aware of these dangers, revealing instances of minors being groomed for explicit acts and criminal activities like money laundering occurring on the platform.

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CEO Sam Altman admitted ChatGPT Pro’s pricing was not based on extensive research and was a personal decision.

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As Trump takes office, the tech world anticipates a blend of continuity and change in policy. While historically, the US has favoured a private-sector-driven tech landscape, Trump is expected to maintain this approach, resisting international regulations that could hinder US companies.

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ChatGPT Pro costs more to run than expected

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has revealed that the company is losing money on its $200-per-month ChatGPT Pro plan due to unexpectedly high usage. The plan, introduced last year, provides access to an advanced AI model and fewer restrictions on OpenAI’s tools. Altman admitted that the pricing was not based on a rigorous study but was instead a personal decision.

Despite raising around $20 billion, OpenAI remains unprofitable, with estimated losses of $5 billion last year. The company is considering price increases or usage-based fees to improve financial stability. Altman also acknowledged that OpenAI requires more investment than initially expected.

The company remains optimistic about its future revenue, projecting $11.6 billion in 2025 and aiming for $100 billion by 2029. As OpenAI undergoes corporate restructuring, attracting new investors and refining its pricing strategy will be key to long-term profitability.

OpenAI confident in AGI but faces safety concerns

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stated that the company believes it knows how to build AGI and is now turning its focus towards developing superintelligence. He argues that advanced AI could significantly boost scientific discovery and economic growth. While AGI is often defined as AI that outperforms humans in most tasks, OpenAI and Microsoft also use a financial benchmark—$100 billion in profits—as a key measure.

Despite Altman’s optimism, today’s AI systems still struggle with accuracy and reliability. OpenAI has previously acknowledged that transitioning to a world with superintelligence is far from certain, and controlling such systems remains an unsolved challenge. The company has, however, recently disbanded key safety teams, leading to concerns about its priorities as it seeks further investment.

Altman remains confident that AI will soon make a significant impact on businesses, suggesting that AI agents could enter the workforce and reshape industries in the near future. He insists that OpenAI continues to balance innovation with safety, despite growing scepticism from former staff and industry critics.

OpenAI delays Media Manager amid creator backlash

In May, OpenAI announced plans for ‘Media Manager,’ a tool to allow creators to control how their content is used in AI training, aiming to address intellectual property (IP) concerns. The project remains unfinished seven months later, with critics claiming it was never prioritised internally. The tool was intended to identify copyrighted text, images, audio, and video, allowing creators to include or exclude their work from OpenAI’s training datasets. However, its future remains uncertain, with no updates since August and missed deadlines.

The delay comes amidst growing backlash from creators and a wave of lawsuits against OpenAI. Plaintiffs, including prominent authors and artists, allege that the company trained its AI models on their works without authorisation. While OpenAI provides ad hoc opt-out mechanisms, critics argue these measures are cumbersome and inadequate.

Media Manager was seen as a potential solution, but experts doubt its effectiveness in addressing complex legal and ethical challenges, including global variations in copyright law and the burden placed on creators to protect their works. OpenAI continues to assert that its AI models transform, rather than replicate, copyrighted material, defending itself under ‘fair use’ protections.

While the company has implemented filters to minimise IP conflicts, lacking comprehensive tools like Media Manager leaves unresolved questions about compliance and compensation. As OpenAI battles legal challenges, the effectiveness and impact of Media Manager—if it ever launches—remain uncertain in the face of an evolving IP landscape.

Tech leaders embrace nuclear energy

Prominent figures in technology are heavily investing in nuclear energy, viewing it as crucial for future innovation. OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates are spearheading initiatives in advanced nuclear technology, with Altman chairing Oklo, a company developing sustainable nuclear reactors.

Data centres, essential for AI and cloud technologies, have seen electricity demands surge by 50% since 2020, now accounting for 4% of US energy use. Projections indicate this figure could rise to 9% by 2030, emphasising the need for scalable, carbon-free energy solutions. Nuclear power offers a consistent energy supply, unlike solar or wind, making it an attractive choice.

Microsoft has committed to reviving the Three Mile Island reactor by 2028, aiming to meet the energy needs of its growing AI operations. Experts, however, caution that tech-driven nuclear investments may prioritise corporate demands over broader public benefits.

Oklo and similar ventures highlight the increasing convergence of technology and energy, as industry leaders strive to support AI advancements sustainably. The debate continues on whether these moves truly serve societal needs or primarily benefit the tech sector.

Plans for major structural change announced by OpenAI

OpenAI has unveiled plans to transition its for-profit arm into a Delaware-based public benefit corporation (PBC). The move aims to attract substantial investment as the competition to develop advanced AI intensifies, and the proposed structure intends to prioritise societal interests alongside shareholder value, setting the company apart from traditional corporate models.

The shift marks a significant step for OpenAI, which started as a nonprofit in 2015 before establishing a for-profit division to fund high-cost AI development. Its latest funding round, valued at $157 billion, necessitated the structural change to eliminate a profit cap for investors, enabling greater financial backing. The nonprofit will retain a substantial stake in the restructured company, ensuring alignment with its original mission.

OpenAI faces criticism and legal challenges over the move. Elon Musk, a co-founder and vocal critic, has filed a lawsuit claiming the changes prioritise profit over public interest. Meta Platforms has also urged regulatory intervention. Legal experts suggest the PBC status offers limited enforcement of its mission-focused commitments, relying on shareholder influence to maintain the balance between profit and purpose.

By adopting this structure, OpenAI aims to align with competitors like Anthropic and xAI, which have similarly raised billions in funding. Analysts view the move as essential for securing the resources needed to remain a leader in the AI sector, though significant hurdles remain.

AGI linked to profits in Microsoft and OpenAI agreement

OpenAI and Microsoft have reportedly agreed on a financial benchmark to define AGI. According to ‘The Information’, AGI will be achieved only when OpenAI’s AI systems generate profits exceeding $100 billion. This definition departs from traditional technical interpretations of AGI and suggests the milestone is many years away.

Despite growing speculation about the progress of models like OpenAI’s o3, the company is currently unprofitable. It expects significant losses this year and predicts profitability only by 2029. The high computational costs associated with advanced AI models pose additional challenges to meeting the ambitious profit target.

Microsoft’s access to OpenAI’s technology hinges on this definition. Under their agreement, Microsoft retains access to OpenAI’s models until AGI is achieved. This provision has sparked discussions, as some believe OpenAI could prematurely declare AGI to gain strategic advantage, though the profit-centric definition may delay such claims.

Experts remain divided on whether the o3 model represents meaningful progress toward AGI. Its performance gains are tempered by substantial expenses, underscoring the tension between innovation and commercial viability in AI development.

OpenAI services suffer second outage in December

OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Sora, and developer API experienced a significant outage on Thursday, disrupting services for over four hours. The issue began around 11 a.m. PT, with partial recovery reported by 2:05 p.m. PT. By 3:16 p.m. PT, OpenAI stated that Sora was operational, though ChatGPT users might still encounter issues accessing their chat history.

According to OpenAI’s status page, the outage was caused by one of their upstream providers, but the company did not provide further details. This marks the second major outage for OpenAI’s services in December. Two weeks ago, a similar incident attributed to a telemetry service malfunction resulted in a six-hour disruption, a notably longer downtime than usual.

Interestingly, popular platforms utilising OpenAI’s API, such as Perplexity and Siri’s Apple Intelligence integration, appeared unaffected during the outage, as confirmed by their status pages and independent testing. OpenAI is actively working to ensure full restoration of its services while addressing the root causes behind these recurring disruptions.

Microsoft expands AI beyond OpenAI models

Microsoft is taking steps to diversify the AI powering its flagship product, Microsoft 365 Copilot. While OpenAI’s GPT-4 model has been a cornerstone of the AI assistant since its launch in March 2023, Microsoft is now integrating internal and third-party AI models, including its proprietary Phi-4, to reduce costs and improve efficiency. This move reflects Microsoft’s broader strategy to lessen reliance on OpenAI, its long-time partner, as it looks to offer faster, more cost-effective solutions to enterprise customers.

The shift is driven by concerns over the high costs and slower speeds associated with OpenAI’s technology for enterprise users. A company spokesperson confirmed that OpenAI remains a partner for advanced models but emphasised that Microsoft customises and incorporates a range of AI models depending on the product. Beyond its collaboration with OpenAI, Microsoft is also customising open-weight models to make its services more accessible and affordable, with potential cost savings for customers.

Microsoft’s approach mirrors similar changes in its other business units. For example, GitHub, acquired by Microsoft in 2018, has started incorporating AI models from Anthropic and Google as alternatives to OpenAI’s offerings. These efforts align with Microsoft’s goal of demonstrating the return on investment for its AI tools, particularly as some enterprises remain cautious about adopting 365 Copilot due to concerns over pricing and utility.

Despite these challenges, Microsoft reports growing adoption of 365 Copilot. The company states that 70% of Fortune 500 companies are using the AI assistant, and analysts predict that more than 10 million users will adopt it this year. As Microsoft continues refining its AI technology, leaders like CEO Satya Nadella are keeping a close watch, underscoring the company’s commitment to innovation in enterprise AI.

o3 models set to enhance OpenAI’s capabilities

OpenAI has announced internal testing of its latest reasoning models, o3 and o3 mini, which aim to tackle complex problems more effectively than their predecessors. The o3 mini model is expected to launch by January, with the full o3 model to follow. These developments signal increased competition with rivals like Google, which recently released its second-generation Gemini AI model.

OpenAI’s advancements build on its earlier o1 models, released in September, which demonstrated improved reasoning in science, coding, and mathematics. The company is inviting external researchers to test the new o3 models before public release.

The announcement follows OpenAI’s $6.6 billion funding round in October, highlighting its growing influence in the generative AI market. As competition intensifies, both OpenAI and Google aim to push the boundaries of AI technology.