The rise of quantum computing is sparking fresh concerns over the long-term security of Bitcoin. Unlike classical systems, quantum machines could eventually break the cryptography protecting digital assets.
Experts warn that Shor’s algorithm, once run on a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, could recover private keys from public ones in hours, leaving exposed funds vulnerable. Analysts see the mid-to-late 2030s as the key period for cryptographically relevant breakthroughs.
ChatGPT-5’s probability model indicates less than a 5% chance of Bitcoin being cracked before 2030, but risk rises to 45–60% between 2035 and 2039, and nearly certainty by 2050. Sudden progress in large-scale, fault-tolerant qubits or government directives could accelerate the timeline.
Mitigation strategies include avoiding key reuse, auditing exposed addresses, and gradually shifting to post-quantum or hybrid cryptographic solutions. Experts suggest that critical migrations should be completed by the mid-2030s to secure the Bitcoin network against future quantum threats.
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