A fresh analysis from Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin is signalling mounting stress in the global fiat system as it diverges from the Nasdaq 100. Hayes says Bitcoin is the most sensitive market gauge of credit supply, making its decoupling a possible early warning of systemic stress.
He links the risk to accelerating AI-driven layoffs among knowledge workers. Data cited from CBS News shows firms attributed roughly 55,000 job cuts in 2025 to AI adoption, a sharp rise from two years earlier.
A significant drop in employment, he argues, could translate into large mortgage and consumer-credit losses for US banks.
Estimates suggest a 20% drop in US knowledge workers could trigger about $557 billion in credit losses, hitting bank capital and regional lenders first. Hayes expects instability to force the Federal Reserve to add liquidity, a move he says could lift Bitcoin to new highs.
Beyond the flagship cryptocurrency, Hayes said his firm Maelstrom may allocate stablecoin reserves to Zcash and Hyperliquid once monetary policy shifts, although timing and price targets remain unspecified.
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Dutch lawmakers have approved a new tax law that will impose a 36% levy on actual investment returns, including both realised and unrealised gains from cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The law, called the Actual Return in Box 3 Act, takes effect on 1 January 2028 and applies annually, meaning investors will owe tax even if assets are not sold.
Real estate and startup shares are exempt from mark-to-market taxation, raising concern among crypto investors. Critics say taxing paper gains may force investors to sell assets or consider moving to more favourable jurisdictions.
The government defended the measure as essential to prevent significant revenue losses.
The legislation includes some relief measures, such as a tax-free annual return for small savers and unlimited loss carry-forward above certain thresholds, allowing investors to offset downturns against future gains.
Despite these provisions, many crypto advocates argue that taxing unrealised gains remains problematic.
Crypto adoption in the Netherlands is growing rapidly. Indirect holdings by Dutch companies, institutions, and households reached $1.42 billion by October 2025, up from $96 million in 2020.
Officials say the long-term goal is to move towards a realised gains model, but annual taxation of paper gains is currently seen as necessary to safeguard public finances.
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BlockFills, an institutional digital asset trading and lending firm, has suspended client deposits and withdrawals, citing market volatility as Bitcoin experiences significant declines.
A notice sent to clients last week stated the suspension was intended ‘to further the protection of our clients and the firm.’ The Chicago-based company serves approximately 2,000 institutional clients and provides crypto-backed lending to miners and hedge funds.
Clients were informed they could continue trading under certain restrictions, though positions requiring additional margin could be closed.
The suspension comes as Bitcoin fell below $65,000 last week, down roughly 25% in 2026 and approximately 45% from its October peak near $120,000. In the digital asset industry, withdrawal halts are often interpreted as warning signs of potential liquidity constraints.
Several crypto firms, including FTX, BlockFi, and Celsius, imposed similar restrictions during prior downturns before entering bankruptcy proceedings.
BlockFills has not specified how long the suspension will last. A company spokesperson said the firm is ‘working hand in hand with investors and clients to bring this issue to a swift resolution and to restore liquidity to the platform.’
Founded in 2018 with backing from Susquehanna and CME Group, there is currently no public evidence of insolvency.
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South Korea’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange, Bithumb, is attempting to recover more than $40bn in Bitcoin after a promotional payout error credited customers with Bitcoin rather than Korean won.
The mistake occurred on 6 February during a ‘random box’ event, when prize values were entered in Bitcoin rather than in Bitcoin. Intended rewards totalled 620,000 won for 695 users, yet 620,000 bitcoins were distributed.
Only 249 customers opened their boxes, but the credited sums exceeded the exchange’s holdings.
Most balances were reversed through internal ledger corrections. About 13bn won ($9m) remains unrecovered after some users sold or withdrew funds before accounts were frozen. Authorities said 86 customers liquidated roughly 1,788 Bitcoins within 35 minutes.
Regulators have opened a full investigation, and lawmakers have scheduled an emergency hearing. Legal uncertainty remains over liability, while the exchange confirmed no hacking was involved and pledged stronger internal controls.
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Quantum computing concerns around Bitcoin have resurfaced, yet analysis from CoinShares indicates the threat remains long-term. The report argues that quantum risk is an engineering challenge that gives Bitcoin ample time to adapt.
Bitcoin’s security relies on elliptic-curve cryptography. A sufficiently advanced quantum machine could, in theory, derive private keys using Shor’s algorithm, which requires millions of stable, error-corrected qubits, and remains far beyond current capability.
Network exposure is also limited. Roughly 1.6 million BTC is held in legacy addresses with visible public keys, yet only about 10,200 BTC is realistically targetable. Modern address formats further reduce the feasibility of attacks.
Debate continues over post-quantum upgrades, with researchers warning that premature changes could introduce new vulnerabilities. Market impact, for now, is viewed as minimal.
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Roughly $500 billion has been wiped from the cryptocurrency market over the past week as a Bitcoin-led sell-off accelerated. Total digital asset capitalisation fell by about $467.6 billion since 29 January, reflecting broad risk-off sentiment across global markets.
Bitcoin briefly dropped to a 15-month low of $72,877 before rebounding 1.31% to $76,681.72. The asset remains down 13% year-to-date and nearly 39% below its October peak above $126,000, underscoring sustained selling pressure.
Macro forces are driving the downturn. Escalating US-Iran tensions pushed capital toward traditional safe havens, while currency shifts, interest rate differentials, and tightening liquidity conditions weighed on leverage and stablecoin flows.
Analysts say the decline reflects positioning resets and broader market nervousness rather than a single catalyst.
Near-term outlook remains cautious. Liquidation pressure persists, though key structural supports continue to hold. Technical analysts identify $73,000 as critical downside support, while reclaiming the $77,500–78,000 range would be needed to restore bullish momentum.
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Bitcoin traded sideways on Tuesday after a short-lived rebound from a 10-month low, as caution continued to dominate derivatives markets. Early Asian trading saw limited movement, with prices hovering below $78,500 following a sharp sell-off the previous day.
Options positioning suggests nerves have yet to ease fully. Data from Deribit showed heavy put option concentrations around $75,000, marking a key support level, while the next downside area is seen closer to $70,000.
Although downside protection demand has softened, positioning indicates traders remain defensive.
Signals from perpetual futures markets reinforced the cautious tone. According to CryptoQuant, funding rates turned negative, their weakest since mid-2024, pointing to a market dominated by short sellers.
Implied volatility stayed elevated near 48.8, based on data from TradingView.
Some traders highlighted early signs of stabilisation after aggressive selling. Analysts at FalconX and STS Digital noted that a weekly close below $75,000 could reignite downside pressure, while holding above that level may support a near-term recovery.
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Financial Conduct Authority research shows UK crypto ownership has declined even as Bitcoin prices surged. Adult participation fell from 12% in 2024 to 8% in the latest survey, equal to about 4.6 million people, although levels remain double those recorded in 2021.
A closer look suggests consolidation rather than collapse. Investors who stayed in the market are committing more capital, with higher-value portfolios becoming more common as retail activity gives way to institutional demand and Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Participants’ knowledge levels are improving. The regulator notes that active investors are more risk-aware and better informed, with ownership skewed towards men aged 18–34 from higher-income demographics and ethnic minority backgrounds.
Bitcoin retains the strongest recognition at 79%, while 57% of current investors hold BTC, a gradual year-on-year increase. Ether ownership stands at 43%, Dogecoin appears in 20% of portfolios, and awareness of newer altcoins remains limited, according to CoinMarketCap.
Stablecoin recognition has risen to 53%, reflecting broader discussion around payments and regulation.
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Indirect crypto securities holdings across Dutch households, institutions, and companies have expanded sharply over the past five years, according to central bank data. The increase reflects wider use of exchange-traded products linked to digital assets, while overall exposure remains limited.
Total indirect investments climbed from around €81 million at the end of 2020 to €1.2 billion by October 2025. Even with that increase, crypto-linked securities remain marginal, accounting for just 0.03% of overall securities holdings in the Netherlands.
Value growth has largely reflected rising prices of underlying crypto-assets rather than widespread new investment. Bitcoin, for example, recorded substantial gains before experiencing a sharp decline in late 2025, which influenced the valuation of related products.
Households hold the largest share of crypto ETFs and ETNs, while pension funds dominate crypto treasury shares. Holdings are highly concentrated, with seven foreign-issued securities accounting for roughly 70% of total Dutch indirect crypto exposure.
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In the US, Morgan Stanley has moved to launch exchange-traded funds linked to Bitcoin and Solana, signalling that major banks are no longer prepared to watch the crypto market from the sidelines.
Filings submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission show the bank intends to offer funds tied to the prices of both crypto assets, making it the first of the ten biggest US banks by assets to pursue crypto ETFs directly.
Interest from Wall Street has been strengthened by regulatory changes introduced under the Trump administration, which created clearer rules for stablecoins and crypto-related investment products.
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETFs have already become a major source of revenue, encouraging banks to seek a more active role instead of limiting themselves to custody services.
The trend is expected to have implications for European investors. US-listed crypto ETFs cannot normally be sold to retail investors in the EU because they do not comply with UCITS requirements.
The shift suggests crypto has become too commercially significant for Wall Street institutions to ignore, with banks increasingly treating digital assets as part of mainstream financial services rather than a peripheral experiment.
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