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AI model forecasts Bitcoin to fall below $100,000

Bitcoin has slipped below $110,000, and according to Finbold’s use of ChatGPT-5, a further drop could occur in the coming weeks. The model outlined technical resistance and seasonal factors pointing to September weakness.

Key levels around $112,000 and $106,000 are under pressure, with the AI projecting a sharp decline toward $98,000 if support breaks. Historically, September has been one of Bitcoin’s worst-performing months, adding to the bearish outlook.

Despite the short-term caution, demand from ETFs and long-term holders may offer support between $95,000 and $98,000. Longer-term technicals remain intact, with the 200-day average sitting near $95,000.

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Bitcoin price drops after whale sell-off while Ethereum holds

Bitcoin price weakened sharply after a $2.7 billion whale sell-off sparked automated liquidations, pushing the cryptocurrency toward key support near $110,500. Over $846 million in liquidations doubled the total crypto capitalisation to about $3.83 trillion.

Indicators suggest short-term volatility and choppy price action.

Technical metrics highlight the divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin’s ADX at 16 and RSI near 42 signal low trend conviction and growing selling pressure, while the Squeeze Momentum Indicator points to potential volatility ahead.

Ethereum remains comparatively resilient, with an ADX around 41, a bullish 50–200 EMA spread, and RSI near 59, supporting continued positive momentum.

Traders are advised to emphasise risk management amid elevated uncertainty. Key Bitcoin support levels sit at $110,500 and $107,000–$107,600, with resistance at $116,000 and $120,000. Ethereum support ranges from $4,194 to $4,400, while immediate resistance reaches $4,954.

Tightening stop-losses, reducing leverage, and waiting for confirmed volatility resolution are recommended before initiating new positions.

The recent whale-induced volatility demonstrates how a large order can swiftly impact market dynamics. While Bitcoin shows fragile trend conditions, Ethereum’s technical strength provides a measure of stability.

Monitoring indicators and key levels remains essential for navigating the current environment.

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Brazil examines legislation for national Bitcoin reserve

Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies Economic Development Commission will hold its first hearing on 20 August to examine a proposal to establish a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. The legislation aims to diversify Treasury assets and protect reserves from currency and geopolitical risks.

Deputy Luiz Philippe de Orleans e Bragança requested the hearing to gather expert input from government agencies and financial institutions. Lawmaker Eros Biondini highlighted global examples such as El Salvador, the US, China, Dubai, and the EU to support the initiative.

The bill assigns custody responsibilities to Brazil’s Central Bank and Finance Ministry and requires biannual reports on RESBit performance and risk assessments.

Brazil leads Latin America in crypto adoption, ranking 10th globally, with nearly $76 billion in crypto traded last year. The proposal positions the country among nations exploring digital asset reserves as hedges against traditional currency.

Following the hearing, the proposal will undergo review by four Chamber committees before full consideration and Senate approval. Expert and monetary authority input will guide committee reviews and amendments, supporting a strong legislative framework for Brazil’s proposed Bitcoin reserve.

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Bitcoin and Ether fall ahead of Fed speech

Bitcoin and Ether fell on Tuesday as traders took profits following a recent market rally and positioned themselves ahead of upcoming macroeconomic events. Bitcoin dropped 2.78% to $113,234, briefly trading as low as $112,709, while Ether fell 5.44% to $4,108.

Analysts attribute the declines to profit-taking and leveraged liquidations after Bitcoin reached an all-time high earlier this month. Market participants take a wait-and-see approach, with ether key levels at $4,200 support and $3,900 downside risk.

Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs are also being closely monitored. ETFs have recently seen net outflows after strong inflows in July and early August, signalling cautious investor sentiment.

Traders are now focused on July’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday could trigger sharp market movements depending on policy signals.

Investors remain cautious, positioning for Powell’s remarks while weighing the potential impact of expected rate cuts in September. Analysts suggest the market may consolidate until greater clarity emerges on monetary policy.

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Weekly #225 – Trump’s US-China chip export policy shifts, ODI’s manifesto and the EU AI and data policy, Musk–Altman antitrust battle

8 – 15 August 2025

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Dear readers,

In the past seven days, US–China tensions over AI chip exports unexpectedly reversed. The Trump administration pushed ahead with an unprecedented export-for-revenue-sharing model, and Beijing quietly countered. Namely, Washington granted Nvidia and AMD permission to resume sales of specific lower-end AI processors to China, including Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308, on the condition that 15% of related revenue goes directly to the US government. The administration framed the move as both commercially advantageous and strategically valuable, arguing it keeps Chinese AI development tied to less advanced US technology.

During the following days, President Trump said he is open to allowing a 30-50% less powerful version of Nvidia’s flagship Blackwell chip into the Chinese market. The proposal has fueled bipartisan concerns in Washington that even degraded chips could help Beijing accelerate its AI advancement. Critics, including Republican and Democratic lawmakers, condemned the decision and warned that monetising export licenses risks turning US national security policy into a ‘pay-for-play’ system, undermining the traditional principle that such controls are non-negotiable.

Beijing has responded with quiet but firm resistance, since regulators have instructed major Chinese tech companies, including Tencent, Baidu, and ByteDance, to avoid using Nvidia’s H20 chips, particularly in government or security-related projects, and to favour domestic options such as Huawei processors. Media have amplified doubts over the security and reliability of the US hardware, while officials signal a long-term push toward semiconductor self-sufficiency. At this point, we can pose the following question: Is Washington trying to balance economic gain and strategic control while Beijing is working to insulate its tech sector from foreign dependence?

In other news, the Open Data Institute (ODI) has published a manifesto setting out six principles for shaping the EU policy on AI and data. Aiming to support policymakers, it aligns with the EU’s upcoming digital reforms, including the AI Act and the bloc’s digital framework review.

Elon Musk has accused Apple of favouring ChatGPT on its App Store and threatened legal action, sparking a clash with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Musk called Apple’s practices an antitrust violation and vowed to take immediate action through his AI company, xAI. Critics on X noted rivals like DeepSeek AI and Perplexity AI have topped the App Store this year. Altman called Musk’s claim ‘remarkable’ on X, adding that Musk was alleged to ‘manipulate X to benefit himself and his own companies and harm his competitors and people he doesn’t like.’ Musk called him a ‘liar,’ prompting demands for proof he never altered X’s algorithm.

Bitcoin surged past $124,000, marking a fresh record, as positive US regulatory sentiment and expectations of upcoming rate cuts fueled gains. Ethereum is also near its yearly peak, riding broader bullish momentum across top cryptocurrencies.

One of the standout billionaire trade offers of the week is Perplexity AI’s unexpected US$34.5 billion bid to acquire Google’s Chrome browser, a move that could align with antitrust measures currently under consideration in the US.

Russian authorities have begun partially restricting calls on Telegram and WhatsApp, citing the need for crime prevention. Regulator Roskomnadzor accused the platforms of enabling fraud, extortion, and terrorism while ignoring repeated requests to act.

For the main updates, reflections and events, consult the RADAR, the READING CORNER and the UPCOMING EVENTS section below.

Join us as we connect the dots, from daily updates to main weekly developments, to bring you a clear, engaging monthly snapshot of worldwide digital trends.

DW Team

RADAR

Highlights from the week of 8 – 15 August 2025

Google IBM Pasqal UN Quantum computing 2025

Quantum computing breakthroughs push 2025 into a new era

Quantum computing is moving from labs to industries in 2025, with breakthroughs transforming finance, healthcare and security.

Small language models gain ground in AI translation

Straker says its small language models offer faster, cheaper, and more accurate translations by focusing on industry-specific context rather than general language coverage.

golden bitcoin on keyboard computer business money cryptocurrency

Bitcoin surges to a new all-time high above $124,000

The wider cryptocurrency market is thriving, with top 100 coins recording double-digit weekly gains amid a shift towards high-growth digital assets.

OpenAI DeepSeek Open weight AI models AI rivalry US China

DeepSeek’s efficiency forces OpenAI to rethink closed AI model strategy

DeepSeek’s low-resource AI success challenges US dominance and spurs OpenAI’s open-weight model release.

Beijing 2025 Robot Conference highlights China’s humanoid robotics growth

The humanoid robot market in China is projected to grow from $2.24 billion in 2024 to $41 billion by 2032 amid rapid AI advances and government support.

UAE Ministry of interior Cybersecurity Dubai Police

UAE Ministry of Interior uses AI and modern laws to fight crime

The UAE Ministry of Interior confirms the use of AI, surveillance, and modern laws to fight crime, noting that data analysis and legal updates are improving investigations.

NASA and Google develop AI doctor for Mars missions

Tested by medical experts, NASA’s AI assistant shows promising accuracy in treating common ailments.

Tesla Dojo AI chip supercomputer programme Peter Bannon Elon Musk

Musk ends in-house ‘Dojo’ AI chip programme, shifts focus to external partners

CEO Elon Musk ends in-house AI chip development, shifting staff to other projects.

Chinese researchers advance atom-based quantum computing with massive atom array

The AI-driven system achieves near-perfect qubit operations and could allow atom-based quantum computers to scale to tens of thousands of qubits.

James Cameron warns AI could spark a real-life Terminator apocalypse

Despite fears, Cameron nonetheless suggests AI superintelligence might also help solve humanity’s biggest challenges.

Instagram users report account suspensions over alleged policy violations

Reports of wrongful Instagram account suspensions have led to a petition urging Meta to address moderation errors and clarify the impact of recent policy updates.

GPT 5 OpenAI ChatGPT Sam Altman Launch User feedback controversy

GPT-5 launch sparks backlash as OpenAI removes ChatGPT model choice

GPT-5 promises better reasoning and fewer hallucinations, but critics say responses are shorter, slower, and less engaging.

DeepSeek delays next AI model amid Huawei chip challenges

Persistent technical issues with Huawei’s AI chips have forced DeepSeek to delay its R2 model launch and rely on Nvidia for training.

Turkish authorities detain Ethereum developer amid legal probe

Legal risks for blockchain privacy tools are increasing as Carrone faces charges in Türkiye connected to his work on privacy protocols.

View all updates

READING CORNER

Stablecoins unlocking crypto adoption and AI economies

Is global finance on the verge of discovering the missing piece that unlocks crypto’s full promise and reshapes the future of the digital era?

BLOG featured image 2025 The European Accessibility Act

The European Accessibility Act is here: What it means, and why it matters

The European Accessibility Act (EAA) is here. Learn what this landmark law means for digital accessibility, businesses, and users with disabilities across the EU.

The soft power of sexuality

The term ‘sexual diplomacy’ circulates within historical, political, and popular discourse, yet it avoids a single, stable definition.

Elections as collective catharsis

Elections aren’t expressions of a unified ‘will’ – they’re emergent, unintended outcomes. Aldo Matteucci takes aim at Max Gallo’s sweeping historical determinism.

Bitcoin jumps after US delays China tariffs deadline

US President Donald Trump has extended the pause on tariffs against Chinese goods by 90 days, postponing the deadline initially set for 12 August. The announcement triggered a sharp rise in Bitcoin’s price, which climbed to nearly $119,800 before returning to around $119,000.

Market watchers remain cautious, debating whether the price surge represents a lasting rally or a brief ‘Dead Cat Bounce.’ A CME futures gap below $119,000 may need to be filled before Bitcoin can sustain an uptrend.

The crypto market also awaits key US inflation data, with consumer and producer price figures expected in mid-August. These statistics could influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions, with a rate cut forecast for September growing more likely.

Crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa outlined two possible paths for Bitcoin’s near-term movement. One scenario expects a gradual pullback to form a stable base, while the other anticipates a quick liquidity test near $120,000 influenced by treasury and economic factors.

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Indonesia considers adding Bitcoin to national reserves

Indonesia is considering adding Bitcoin to its national reserves, with support from the Vice President’s office and other key parties. The proposal suggests allocating about $18.3 billion to Bitcoin through the Daya Anagata Nusantara Investment Management Agency (BPI Danantara).

Proponents say this could help reduce national debt and diversify reserves.

Bitcoin advocates recently presented to the Vice President’s office, proposing Bitcoin mining as part of the national reserve strategy. Discussions focused on Bitcoin’s potential to strengthen Indonesia’s economy long-term, aligning with milestones like the country’s centenary of independence.

BPI Danantara, launched in February 2025, manages state assets independently to boost development. The Bitcoin allocation could secure up to 200,000 BTC, generating profits to ease debt pressures.

If approved, Indonesia would be among the first Southeast Asian countries to include Bitcoin in its sovereign wealth fund, marking a significant step in the region’s crypto landscape.

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Brazil weighs national Bitcoin reserve plan

Brazil’s House of Representatives will convene on 20 August to evaluate a bill proposing the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve. If approved, the legislation would allow up to 5% of the nation’s treasury reserves, equivalent to nearly $15 billion, to be invested in Bitcoin.

The hearing will involve several key institutions, including the Central Bank of Brazil, the Ministry of Finance, a crypto advocacy group, and financial sector stakeholders.

Supporters of the bill claim that a Bitcoin reserve would shield Brazil’s foreign reserves from currency volatility and geopolitical threats. They also argue it would encourage broader adoption of blockchain technologies.

The proposal follows similar global movements. India and Sweden are also rumoured to be exploring similar strategies.

Reactions in Brazil are mixed. While Vice President Alckmin’s chief of staff praised the initiative, calling Bitcoin’ digital gold,’ officials at the Central Bank have cautioned against integrating crypto into official reserves.

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Bitcoin set for strong August after historic monthly close

Bitcoin finished July with its highest monthly close in history, settling around $115,800 on Coinbase. The milestone came despite a late dip linked to global economic volatility, including recent US tariff increases.

Market analysts view the drop as a bullish retest, signalling continued strength in Bitcoin’s uptrend.

Historical trends highlight August as a mixed month for Bitcoin, usually yielding modest gains. However, post-halving Augusts stand apart, with significant price surges seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

Analysts like Alpha Finder and Crypto B point to these patterns as reasons to expect strong performance this August.

Technical indicators suggest Bitcoin’s price could soon accelerate sharply, with some analysts forecasting a target near $172,000 — a 50% rise from current levels. Traders should expect some volatility, but Bitcoin’s outlook remains positive for the coming months.

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DOJ seizes $2.3 million Bitcoin from Chaos ransomware

The US Department of Justice has moved to seize over $2.3 million in Bitcoin tied to a member of the Chaos ransomware group. The funds, taken from a wallet linked to the individual known as ‘Hors’, are alleged to be proceeds of extortion and money laundering.

Chaos operates as a ransomware-as-a-service group, renting its malware to affiliates targeting Windows, Linux, and NAS systems. The group has been active since early 2025 and is known for encrypting victims’ data while demanding crypto payments under threat of public leaks.

US Federal agents accessed the wallet in April using a recovery seed phrase from an older Electrum platform and transferred the assets to a government-controlled address. The DOJ said the operation demonstrates growing success in disrupting ransomware-related crypto flows.

Despite the seizure, challenges remain as such groups evolve their tactics and benefit from the relative anonymity of decentralised platforms. Authorities stress that continued cross-agency cooperation and advances in blockchain forensics are essential in combating future threats.

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