Google researchers have revealed that breaking RSA encryption—the technology securing crypto wallets—requires far fewer quantum resources than previously thought. The team found cracking 2048-bit RSA could take under a week using fewer than a million noisy qubits, 20 times less than previously estimated.
Currently, quantum computers like IBM’s Condor and Google’s Sycamore operate with far fewer qubits, so crypto assets remain safe for now. The significance lies in the rapid pace of improvement in quantum computing capabilities, which calls for increased vigilance.
The breakthrough stems from improved algorithms that speed up key calculations and smarter error correction methods. Researchers also enhanced ‘magic state cultivation,’ a technique that boosts quantum operation efficiency by reducing resource waste.
Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography, similar in principle to RSA. If quantum computers can crack RSA sooner, Bitcoin’s security timeline could be shortened.
Efforts like Project 11’s quantum Bitcoin bounty highlight ongoing research to test the threat’s urgency.
Quantum threats extend beyond crypto, affecting global secure communications, banking, and digital signatures. Google has begun encrypting more traffic with quantum-resistant protocols in preparation for this shift.
Despite rapid progress, challenges remain. Quantum computers must maintain stability and coherence for long periods to execute complex operations. Currently, this remains a major hurdle, so there is no immediate threat.
It seems likely the first quantum-resistant blockchain upgrades will arrive well before any quantum attack on Bitcoin’s network.
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