UNCTAD report notes global trade growth alongside increasing fragmentation risks

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development reports that global trade expanded by $2.5 trillion in 2025, reaching a total value of $35 trillion, driven by continued growth in goods and services.

Despite this expansion, the outlook has become more uncertain due to rising geopolitical tensions and disruptions to key shipping routes.

Conflicts in the Middle East and instability in critical maritime corridors are increasing energy and transport costs, placing additional pressure on developing economies. Higher import expenses and tighter financial conditions are limiting fiscal flexibility and constraining growth prospects in vulnerable regions.

While trade growth remains broad-based, services expansion has slowed, and much of the recent increase is linked to higher prices rather than volume gains. Emerging markets in East Asia and Africa remain central, supported by strong South–South trade and shifting supply chains.

The report notes that ongoing fragmentation in global trade, including US–China decoupling, is reshaping commercial flows and creating new ‘connector economies’. Although offering some value chain opportunities, inflation, debt pressures, and protectionism are expected to weigh on global trade growth in 2026.

Rising fragmentation and uneven growth highlight widening gaps in how countries benefit from globalisation, with developing economies most exposed to cost shocks and financial constraints.

Shifting global trade will shape investment flows, development prospects, and economic resilience, increasing the need for coordinated policy responses.

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China guidelines reshape e-commerce growth and digital trade strategy

New guidelines issued by China reflect an effort to reposition e-commerce as a structural driver of economic development rather than a purely consumer-facing sector.

Coordinated by the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, the policy links digital expansion with broader industrial strategy, aiming to integrate online platforms more deeply into manufacturing, supply chains, and regional economies.

A central policy objective is to extend the benefits of digital commerce to small and medium-sized enterprises and rural regions, where barriers to market access have historically limited growth.

By promoting industrial digitalisation and technological innovation, China seeks to enhance productivity and improve the quality of consumption, while reducing structural inequalities between urban and rural economies.

Instead of focusing solely on platform growth, the approach prioritises systemic economic transformation.

Internationally, China’s framework emphasises cross-border e-commerce and closer alignment with global digital trade rules, signalling an intention to expand participation in global markets while shaping emerging regulatory standards.

Initiatives linked to transnational digital trade corridors further indicate an effort to combine economic openness with strategic influence in rule-setting processes.

Regulatory measures form a parallel pillar of the policy, with clearer platform responsibilities and stronger oversight intended to balance innovation with accountability.

Combined with investments in data utilisation, financial support, and workforce development, the guidelines illustrate a governance model where the state actively structures digital markets to serve long-term economic and policy objectives.

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EU delegation in China calls for sustainable e-commerce and safety standards

Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) completed a visit to Beijing and Shanghai to address pressing e-commerce challenges affecting the European single market.

The delegation studied local business models and market supervision frameworks, engaging with Chinese regulators, e-commerce platforms, and the EU company representatives.

The discussions highlighted the surge of parcels from China, which now account for 91% of small shipments to Europe, and the resulting pressures on fair competition.

MEPs stressed that regulatory compliance must be consistent across all operators, ensuring consumer protection is not compromised by disparities in market practices or enforcement gaps.

The delegation urged representatives of e-commerce platforms to implement preventive measures, reinforcing accountability in areas such as product safety, customs compliance, and the removal of unsafe goods from the market.

MEPs underscored that these standards are essential to maintaining a sustainable and secure e-commerce environment for European citizens.

The visit, the first in eight years, demonstrated the EU’s commitment to safeguarding consumer rights, strengthening international cooperation, and ensuring digital commerce evolves in a manner that is fair, transparent, and safe for all citizens.

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Digital euro emerges as core pillar of EU financial independence

A speech by European Central Bank’s Member of Executive Board Piero Cipollone outlines how a digital euro could strengthen Europe’s resilience and autonomy in payments.

An initiative that responds to growing dependence on non-European financial infrastructure, which increasingly shapes transaction rules, costs, and access across the euro area.

According to Mr Cipollone, ‘dependence on a non-European infrastructure leaves users vulnerable to an outright withdrawal of access.

Most card transactions in the euro area depend on non-European schemes, while declining cash usage intensifies dependence on digital systems beyond European control.

He added that the proposed digital euro would function as a sovereign digital payment method, available online and offline, ensuring continuity and privacy.

It would also reduce reliance on foreign providers, lower transaction costs, and create a unified infrastructure supporting competition and innovation across the EU payment systems.

Beyond retail payments, the ECB emphasises a broader strategy including tokenised central bank money and distributed ledger technologies.

These measures aim to strengthen financial integration, prevent fragmentation, and ensure that the EU’s digital financial ecosystem develops on foundations aligned with its economic sovereignty.

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New quantum threat could weaken cryptocurrency encryption systems

A new warning from Google says advances in quantum computing could weaken widely used cryptographic systems protecting cryptocurrencies and digital infrastructure. A new whitepaper suggests future quantum machines may need fewer resources than previously estimated to break elliptic curve cryptography.

The research focuses on the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem, which underpins much of today’s blockchain security. Findings suggest quantum algorithms like Shor’s could run with fewer qubits and gates, increasing concerns about cryptographic resilience.

To address the risk, the paper recommends a transition to post-quantum cryptography, which is designed to resist quantum attacks. It also outlines short-term blockchain measures, including avoiding reuse of vulnerable wallet addresses and preparing digital asset migration strategies.

Google also introduced a responsible disclosure approach using zero-knowledge proofs to communicate vulnerabilities without exposing exploitable details.

The company says this balances transparency and security, supporting coordinated efforts across crypto and research communities to prepare for quantum threats.

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UK authorities have fined an Apple subsidiary over a sanctions breach

The UK has fined Apple Inc. subsidiary Apple Distribution International £390,000 for breaching sanctions linked to Russia. The penalty relates to payments routed through a UK bank to a Russian streaming platform.

The payments, totalling more than £635,000, were made to Okko from a UK-based account. The subsidiary, responsible for Apple product sales across Europe and the Middle East, instructed the transfers despite the platform’s ownership links to sanctioned entities.

The Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation found the funds were linked to Sberbank and a company later sanctioned after the 2022 Ukraine invasion. Payments were made shortly after those restrictions came into force.

Regulators said the firm had voluntarily disclosed the transactions and had not been aware of the sanctions breach at the time. Apple stated it follows all applicable laws and has strengthened its compliance procedures following the incident.

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South Korea sets ambition to become AI leader

South Korea has unveiled a national strategy to become one of the world’s top three AI powers by 2028. The plan combines investment in digital infrastructure, data systems and next-generation connectivity.

Authorities aim to expand networks by advancing 5G capabilities and preparing for the commercial deployment of 6G by 2030. Cybersecurity and data integration are also key priorities to support a stronger digital ecosystem.

The strategy includes developing talent across education levels and investing in core technologies such as semiconductors and quantum computing. AI adoption is expected to expand across sectors, including manufacturing, healthcare and agriculture.

The South Korean officials also plan to promote digital inclusion through learning centres and assistive technologies. Coordination between ministries will be strengthened to ensure effective delivery of the long-term roadmap.

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Cryptocurrency political donations banned under new Canada bill

Canada’s Liberal government has introduced Bill C-25 to prohibit cryptocurrency and other non-cash instruments from being used as political donations. The measure covers all registered parties, candidates, leadership, and nomination contests, and third-party advertisers, tightening campaign finance rules.

The proposal reverses a 2019 framework that had allowed limited crypto contributions under strict conditions, though uptake remained minimal and no major party reported receiving such donations in recent federal elections.

Authorities argue that pseudo-anonymous blockchain transactions make it difficult to verify the true source of funds, raising concerns about traceability and foreign interference risks.

Under the new rules, any prohibited donation must be returned, destroyed, or converted and forwarded to the Receiver General within 30 days. Enforcement includes fines of up to twice the illegal contribution’s value, reaching CA$25,000 for individuals and CA$100,000 for corporations.

Bill C-25 also revives provisions from the earlier Bill C-65, which collapsed in 2025 after Parliament was prorogued. The updated law aligns with UK restrictions and expands election oversight powers, including measures against deepfakes and foreign interference.

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WTO Ministerial: Members diverge on digital trade outcomes

At the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé, Cameroon, two parallel tracks concerning digital trade took centre stage, each with distinct outcomes. The first was the long-standing moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions, a temporary ban renewed every two years since 1998, which expires on March 31, since members were unable to agree on a new extension.

The second was the plurilateral Agreement on Electronic Commerce concluded in 2024 by the Joint Statement Initiative on e-commerce (JSI), aiming to establish digital trade rules, including a prohibition on e-commerce duties. While the moratorium lapsed without a multilateral consensus, a coalition of countries decided to move forward with implementing the plurilateral e-commerce agreement.

Moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions

The Ministerial Conference concluded without a final declaration and without an agreement on the moratorium, leading to its lapse on March 31. Negotiators were unable to reach a consensus on the length of a new extension, with differing views among members preventing a deal.

The outcome also meant that a broader set of discussions on WTO reform, which had been politically linked to the approval of the moratorium, remained unresolved. Discussions on both fronts, as well as about the future of the Work Programme on e-commerce (WPEC), are expected to continue at the next General Council meeting in May.

At the heart of the impasse were differing perspectives on how long the moratorium should be extended. While some members, particularly the US, sought a longer-term solution, others have traditionally advocated a shorter renewal, reflecting a desire for caution given the rapid pace of technological change and the need to preserve policy flexibility for the future.

During MC14, Brazil was the leading voice, emphasising the importance of caution in light of developments such as AI and 3D printing, suggesting that a shorter extension with room for review would allow members to reassess as the digital landscape evolves. Efforts to find a middle ground ultimately fell short as time ran out.

This is not the first time that the moratorium lapses; it happened at the 1999 Seattle ministerial, before the moratorium was reinstated at Doha two years later. The current expiry of the moratorium does not mean tariffs will automatically be imposed.

Still, it creates policy space for some countries to consider introducing tariffs if they are not bound by trade agreements that prohibit customs duties on electronic transmissions.

Plurilateral Agreement on E-commerce will be implemented on an interim basis

A coalition of 66 WTO members announced they would move forward with implementing the JSI e-commerce agreement through interim arrangements. Australia, Japan, and Singapore, serving as co-convenors, confirmed that the pact, which aims to facilitate digital trade and prohibit duties on e-commerce transactions, will enter into force once 45 members have formally notified their acceptance.

In the meantime, JSI members will continue to seek inclusion of the Agreement under the WTO legal architecture. Upon the entry into force, the signatories of the Agreement, which excludes major economies, such as the United States, Brazil, and India, will be bound by a moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions, offsetting some of the impact of the expiry of the WTO-wide moratorium.

The initiative received support from WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, who noted that participating economies are helping establish a shared regulatory framework that can lower costs and unlock new opportunities. However, the path for other plurilateral efforts remains uncertain, as India registered dissent against the incorporation of the agreement achieved within another plurilateral negotiation, on Investment Facilitation for Development, into the WTO rulebook.

The country argued that incorporating such frameworks into the WTO rulebook risks eroding the organisation’s foundational principles. It asked for a discussion of guardrails and legal safeguards before integrating any specific plurilateral outcome into the WTO.

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Lille proposed as EU customs hub

France has submitted a bid to host the future EU Customs Authority in Lille, positioning itself at the centre of efforts to modernise the customs union. The proposal highlights national expertise and a leading role in shaping recent reforms.

Authorities argue the new body will strengthen internal market security, improve oversight of e-commerce and enhance cooperation between member states. France has supported initiatives to tackle illicit trade and improve risk management.

Officials also point to strong operational experience, including international customs networks and the use of AI tools to screen postal shipments. Such capabilities are presented as key to supporting the authority from its launch, but questions are raised concerning the use of AI and its biases.

Lille is promoted as a strategic logistics hub with strong transport links and access to skilled workers. Its location near major European trade routes is expected to support recruitment and coordination across the bloc.

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