Quantum computing could render today’s encryption obsolete

The rise of quantum computing poses a serious threat to modern encryption systems, with experts warning that critical digital infrastructure could become vulnerable once quantum devices reach sufficient power.

Unlike classical computers that process binary bits, quantum computers use qubits, allowing them to perform vast numbers of calculations simultaneously.

This capability could make breaking widely used encryption methods, like RSA, possible in minutes—something that would take today’s computers thousands of years.

Although quantum systems powerful enough to crack encryption may still be years away, there is growing concern that hackers could already be collecting encrypted data to decode it once the technology catches up.

Sensitive information—such as national security data, intellectual property, and personal records—could be at risk. In response, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology has introduced new post-quantum encryption standards and is encouraging organisations to transition swiftly, though the scale of the upgrade needed across global infrastructure remains immense.

Updating web browsers and modern devices may be straightforward, but older systems, critical infrastructure, and the growing number of Internet of Things (IoT) devices pose significant challenges.

Satellites, for instance, vary in how easily they can be upgraded, with remote sensing satellites often requiring full replacements. Cybersecurity experts stress the need for ‘crypto agility’ to make the transition manageable, aiming to avoid a chaotic scramble once quantum threats materialise.

For more information on these topics, visit diplomacy.edu.