Bitcoin divergence signals rising credit stress
Arthur Hayes says large-scale job losses could strain US bank balance sheets and trigger monetary easing, a scenario he views as bullish for Bitcoin.
A fresh analysis from Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin is signalling mounting stress in the global fiat system as it diverges from the Nasdaq 100. Hayes says Bitcoin is the most sensitive market gauge of credit supply, making its decoupling a possible early warning of systemic stress.
He links the risk to accelerating AI-driven layoffs among knowledge workers. Data cited from CBS News shows firms attributed roughly 55,000 job cuts in 2025 to AI adoption, a sharp rise from two years earlier.
A significant drop in employment, he argues, could translate into large mortgage and consumer-credit losses for US banks.
Estimates suggest a 20% drop in US knowledge workers could trigger about $557 billion in credit losses, hitting bank capital and regional lenders first. Hayes expects instability to force the Federal Reserve to add liquidity, a move he says could lift Bitcoin to new highs.
Beyond the flagship cryptocurrency, Hayes said his firm Maelstrom may allocate stablecoin reserves to Zcash and Hyperliquid once monetary policy shifts, although timing and price targets remain unspecified.
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