ASML forecast triggers semiconductor market concerns
Analysts suggest chipmakers are becoming more efficient, reducing their need for new ASML equipment.
ASML’s lowered 2025 sales forecast has triggered a significant sell-off in semiconductor stocks, reflecting concerns over global chip demand. While the Dutch company’s revised forecast indicated €30 billion to €35 billion in net sales, this figure sits near the bottom of previous projections. Its stock plunged to record its biggest one-day drop in 25 years, sending shockwaves throughout the chipmaking sector.
The shift in outlook suggests that factory overcapacity, rather than weak demand, is affecting orders. Many manufacturers, including Intel, Samsung, and TSMC, had stocked up on ASML’s advanced tools during the pandemic. As production efficiency improved, fewer new machines were needed to keep up with stabilising demand. Analysts noted that chip factories have become better at maximising output with existing equipment.
Chip usage at production facilities remains around 81%, far from the 95% threshold where manufacturers typically invest in new tools. Industry experts also reported that new technology could reduce the reliance on ASML’s machines. Samsung, for example, is exploring advanced chip-etching techniques to minimise the use of ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, potentially creating excess capacity.
Despite challenges, analysts maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry. AI-related chips and memory solutions remain in high demand, though the broader market continues to experience some volatility. Experts believe the current slowdown is a temporary phase before the sector resumes growth.
