AI investments weigh on Microsoft as Copilot demand remains sluggish

Microsoft is anticipated to report its slowest revenue growth in a year as investors focus on AI-related earnings and the impact of heavy investments in the technology. While Microsoft has led the way in generative AI, helped by its significant stake in ChatGPT creator OpenAI, adoption of its enterprise AI assistant, Copilot, has lagged. Recent reports suggest a hesitant market for Copilot’s $30-per-month subscription, with many companies still in pilot phases.

Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Visible Alpha expect Microsoft’s capital expenditures in the September quarter to have surged nearly 72% year-on-year, driven by high AI and cloud computing costs. Azure, Microsoft’s cloud unit, likely grew by 33% for the quarter, although that marks a slight dip from prior growth. Despite this, Microsoft hopes for stronger AI-driven revenue in Azure and is targeting faster growth in the second half of the fiscal year.

In the wake of a financial reorganisation in August, Microsoft’s earnings have become harder to predict. With high AI-related costs weighing on margins, Microsoft’s shares have seen minimal growth since July, underperforming the S&P 500. Meanwhile, analysts anticipate a revenue rise of around 14% to $64.5 billion, a modest improvement amid investor concerns over Microsoft’s AI strategies.

Scepticism around Microsoft’s 365 Copilot assistant remains, though some analysts believe recent AI upgrades could drive demand. Microsoft’s productivity unit, including LinkedIn and Office, is expected to maintain steady growth, and the company remains optimistic about AI’s potential to strengthen its productivity suite.