Microsoft faces pressure ahead of AI growth forecast

Microsoft’s upcoming quarterly forecast will reveal whether its significant investments in AI, including its partnership with OpenAI, drive growth in its key Azure cloud business. Despite earlier optimism, Azure’s growth has slowed for two consecutive quarters, and investors are anxious about Microsoft’s ability to monetise AI. The company has committed about $80 billion in capital spending this year, but doubts linger over the effectiveness of its strategy, especially after a sharp drop in stock price following the launch of a competitive AI model by Chinese startup DeepSeek.

Azure, which contributes around a third of Microsoft’s revenue, is expected to show 31.8% growth in the second quarter, a slight slowdown from the previous quarter. Microsoft’s relationship with OpenAI remains a key growth driver, with Azure set to handle much of OpenAI’s cloud traffic. However, investor sentiment has soured, with growing concerns about AI monetisation, margins, and capital expenditure. Microsoft also faces the impact of a stronger dollar, which could hurt its international earnings.

In addition to Azure, Microsoft is banking on the success of its Microsoft 365 Copilot AI assistant, but adoption has been slower than anticipated. To stimulate demand, the company has adjusted its pricing, adding AI features to lower-tier Microsoft 365 plans. While the Copilot’s potential remains high, analysts project a modest penetration rate of 10%, suggesting it could add significant revenue in the coming years. Despite these challenges, Microsoft’s productivity division, which includes 365 Copilot and LinkedIn, is expected to see continued growth.

Overall, Microsoft is forecasted to report slower growth for the second quarter, with revenue expected to rise by 10.9% compared to 16% in the first quarter. Net profit is also projected to increase at a slower pace, raising questions about whether the company’s AI investments will pay off as anticipated.