Toncoin faces bear market with risk of further decline

Toncoin continues to face significant challenges, with its price down more than 30% from its year-to-date high, trading at $5.81 as of 30th September. Despite strong on-chain activity, including a surge in activated wallets and an increase in the number of burned Toncoins, its role in the decentralised finance space is fading. The total value locked in Toncoin’s network has plunged from $765 million in July to $427 million, causing the token to slip in DeFi rankings.

Contributing to this decline is the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov in France and the poor performance of newly launched tap-to-earn tokens, which have seen steep drops in value. Alongside these setbacks, Toncoin’s futures open interest has also declined, indicating weaker demand. Technically, Toncoin is approaching a critical point where the 50-day and 200-day moving averages may form a death cross, which could trigger further price declines if it fails to break above these levels.

Unless Toncoin can regain momentum, a bearish breakout to the $4.45 support level appears likely. The last time this pattern formed, Toncoin experienced a significant drop, and its future remains uncertain unless it can overcome its current technical and market challenges.