The nuanced impact of AI on jobs: less severe than initial predictions suggested
As concerns regarding AI capabilities and potential job displacement have heightened, economists have grown increasingly optimistic. Recent studies indicate a more positive outlook, suggesting that fewer American workers face the risk of job automation than was previously believed.
Recent studies suggest that the impact of job automation may not be as severe as initially predicted. Economists Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne had previously estimated that 47% of American jobs were at risk of automation, but newer research indicates that fewer workers are actually exposed to automation. However, concerns about job displacement have intensified due to advancements in AI capabilities.
Despite these concerns, economists have become more optimistic as they delve deeper into the effects of AI on the job market. For example, recent studies have shown that newer AI technologies are more targeted at skilled jobs, excelling in areas such as coding and creativity. This suggests that low-skilled jobs may be less vulnerable to automation. Moreover, experiments have demonstrated that AI tools can actually boost the productivity of lower-ability workers more than higher-ability workers.
To understand the impact of AI adoption, the article examines three industries: translation, customer service, and sales. In the translation industry, AI plays a significant role, with workers now editing translations generated by AI. This has created more work opportunities, although the pay per word has decreased. In customer service, AI automation has been challenging, as chatbots often frustrate customers. Employee turnover rates in contact centres reflect worker dissatisfaction.
However, AI has proven beneficial for less-skilled workers in customer service. Experiments have shown that AI assistants offering real-time suggestions can improve the productivity of the least-skilled agents. In sales, AI has the potential to enhance the performance of top salespeople, creating sales “superstars.” AI tools can analyze sales calls, identify effective tactics, and assist in contacting multiple potential customers simultaneously.
The impact of AI on different industries varies, with some industries benefiting from AI adoption while others face challenges. Increased productivity can lead to higher thresholds for sales representatives, potentially displacing low-performing workers. Additionally, high turnover rates in the sales industry may result in fewer hires rather than mass firings.
The article also explores the potential for new job opportunities arising from AI disruption, particularly in industries where greater efficiency is achieved. The impact of AI on inequality is also highlighted, with potential benefits for superstars but struggles for low performers.
Source: The Economist
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