World Bank says AI may reshape global growth trajectory

The World Bank says AI could become a major catalyst for global growth, but the scale and distribution of its impact remain highly uncertain. In its June 2026 Global Economic Prospects report, the Bank says AI could influence global growth primarily through increased investment in the near term and faster productivity growth over the medium term.

The analysis comes as global potential growth continues to slow. The World Bank says global potential growth declined from 3.6% a year in the 2000s to 2.8% in the 2010s and is projected to fall to about 2.2% this decade if recent trends persist.

AI could alter that trajectory if productivity gains prove substantial, sustained and widely distributed across economies. The report says estimates of AI’s productivity impact vary widely, ranging from modest gains to more transformative effects, depending on assumptions about adoption, task exposure, productivity improvements, and wider economic spillovers.

Illustrative scenarios suggest that under optimistic assumptions, AI-driven productivity gains could lift global growth in the 2030s above the average recorded in the 2000s, making it the strongest decade for global growth since the 1970s. Under less optimistic assumptions, the gains would be much smaller and would not fully reverse the slowdown.

The World Bank says benefits are likely to vary across countries. Economies with weaker digital infrastructure, lower skills levels, limited data centre capacity, and less developed regulatory frameworks may find it harder to capture AI-related gains. As a result, emerging markets and developing economies could fall further behind if AI adoption remains limited.

The report argues that policy choices will play a decisive role in determining whether AI becomes a broad-based engine of growth or a more narrowly concentrated source of efficiency gains. It points to the need for investment in digital infrastructure, human capital, local data ecosystems, adaptable regulation, start-up environments, and social protection systems that help workers adjust.

Why does it matter?

The World Bank’s analysis places AI at the centre of the debate on future economic growth. With global productivity and potential growth slowing for decades, AI is increasingly viewed as one of the few technologies capable of generating large-scale productivity gains across multiple sectors of the economy.

At the same time, the report highlights the risk of an emerging AI divide. Countries with strong digital infrastructure, skilled workforces and supportive policy environments are likely to capture the greatest benefits, while others may struggle to participate. This makes AI adoption not only a technology challenge, but also a development, governance and economic policy issue with implications for global inequality and competitiveness.

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