Study says AI is rewiring global trade and reshaping economic power

A new Allianz Research report argues that AI is transforming global trade, supply chains, digital infrastructure, and geopolitical influence.

The report says AI growth increasingly depends on global semiconductor production, cloud infrastructure, hyperscale data centres, and cross-border digital services. It also argues that trade is increasingly shaped by who controls AI infrastructure, data flows, and cloud capacity.

Allianz Research says exports of AI-enabling goods rose from USD 1 trillion in 2014 to USD 3.8 trillion in 2025, accounting for 15% of global trade and far outpacing overall goods trade growth. Asia dominates the supply side, accounting for 65% of global AI-related exports and seven of the top ten exporters, led by China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.

The report also highlights the United States’ role as a centre of hyperscale AI infrastructure. It says the US has tripled its AI-related imports since 2023 and is home to 5,427 operational data centres, equivalent to 45% of the global total.

Europe faces a different challenge. According to Allianz Research, the region has less than 10GW of operational data-centre capacity, compared with 60GW in the US, while US hyperscalers already control 35% of European computing capacity and are consolidating a 70% share of the cloud market. The report points to fragmented regulation, complex permitting processes, grid connection delays, limited funding, and the absence of a domestic hyperscaler as factors that reinforce European dependence.

The study also warns that AI diffusion could widen EU-US service imbalances by requiring recurring payments to American AI providers and cloud platforms. In a high-adoption scenario, annual payments by eurozone users to US AI services providers could rise from EUR 2.7 billion to EUR 34 billion, according to the report.

Allianz Research concludes that AI governance, industrial policy, export restrictions, subsidies, and digital trade regulation are becoming central components of global economic competition. Governments are increasingly treating semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, data centres, and AI services as strategic assets linked to national security, economic resilience, and geopolitical influence.

Why does it matter?

The report frames AI as a trade and industrial policy issue, not only a technology story. Its findings suggest that control over semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, data centres, and AI services could shape which economies capture AI-driven productivity gains and which become more dependent on foreign platforms, supply chains, and infrastructure. For Europe, the key concern is a possible double dependence on US cloud and AI services and Asian hardware supply chains.

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