AI industry faces recalibration as Altman delays AGI
Altman revises AGI prediction to 2030 as OpenAI faces financial and technical headwinds.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has again adjusted his timeline for achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI). After earlier forecasts for 2023 and 2025, Altman suggests 2030 as a more realistic milestone. The move reflects mounting pressure and shifting expectations in the AI sector.
OpenAI’s public projections come amid challenging financials. Despite a valuation near $500 billion, the company reportedly lost $5 billion last year on $3.7 billion in revenue. Investors remain drawn to ambitious claims of AGI, despite widespread scepticism. Predictions now span from 2026 to 2060.
Experts question whether AGI is feasible under current large language model (LLM) architectures. They point out that LLMs rely on probabilistic patterns in text, lack lived experience, and cannot develop human judgement or intuition from data alone.
Another point of critique is that text-based models cannot fully capture embodied expertise. Fields like law, medicine, or skilled trades depend on hands-on training, tacit knowledge, and real-world context, where AI remains fundamentally limited.
As investors and commentators calibrate expectations, the AI industry may face a reckoning. Altman’s shifting forecasts underscore how hype and uncertainty continue to shape the race toward perceived machine-level intelligence.
Would you like to learn more about AI, tech, and digital diplomacy? If so, ask our Diplo chatbot!
