Quantum breakthroughs could threaten Bitcoin in the 2030s
Rising probabilities point to Bitcoin facing critical quantum threats by the 2030s, unless proactive measures strengthen its network security.
The rise of quantum computing is sparking fresh concerns over the long-term security of Bitcoin. Unlike classical systems, quantum machines could eventually break the cryptography protecting digital assets.
Experts warn that Shor’s algorithm, once run on a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, could recover private keys from public ones in hours, leaving exposed funds vulnerable. Analysts see the mid-to-late 2030s as the key period for cryptographically relevant breakthroughs.
ChatGPT-5’s probability model indicates less than a 5% chance of Bitcoin being cracked before 2030, but risk rises to 45–60% between 2035 and 2039, and nearly certainty by 2050. Sudden progress in large-scale, fault-tolerant qubits or government directives could accelerate the timeline.
Mitigation strategies include avoiding key reuse, auditing exposed addresses, and gradually shifting to post-quantum or hybrid cryptographic solutions. Experts suggest that critical migrations should be completed by the mid-2030s to secure the Bitcoin network against future quantum threats.
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