NVIDIA eyes recovery in China after export deal ahead of Q2 report
Analysts forecast nearly 50 percent year-on-year revenue growth for NVIDIA in Q2 2026, driven by Blackwell GPU demand and renewed China chip access.
NVIDIA is due to report its Q2 2026 financial results after the US market closes on 27 August, and analysts are expecting strong performance.
Consensus forecasts place revenue at around US $45.9 billion, up about 50 percent year-on-year, driven by ongoing demand for Blackwell GPUs, data centre expansion and redistribution of AI infrastructure investments globally.
Export changes are also pivotal. After entering a deal to resume H20 chip sales to China, despite revenue-sharing conditions, NVIDIA could reclaim as much as US$8 billion during Q2, mitigating past losses caused by restrictions.
Beyond geopolitical shifts, the Blackwell Ultra GPU is central to growth. Offering up to 50 times faster AI inference than earlier models, it is increasingly stocked by cloud providers and hyperscalers. Markets view this as a strategic advantage, fueling long-term AI momentum.
Risks remain. Gross margins may recover from prior pressure due to licensing charges, but margin expansion depends on supply and TAM realisation. China’s policy environment is also uncertain, making future guidance cautious for some analysts.
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