Thinking through Augmentation
17 Jan 2024 09:00h - 09:45h
Event report
As AI propels us towards a new economic era, its potential for generating trillions in value hinges on how it is deployed in the workforce, with several scenarios possible of high to low employment and high to low productivity outcomes.
What are the most likely jobs and productivity scenarios and how should leaders shape the most desirable outcomes for economies and societies?
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Knowledge Graph of Debate
Session report
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Francine Lacqua
The analysis reveals concerns and arguments raised by Francine Lacqua and Azeem Azhar regarding the rapid progress of technology. Lacqua expresses concerns about the potential implications of technology surpassing human behavior. Azhar points out flaws in current technology, particularly mentioning LLMs. This highlights the importance of addressing these shortcomings and ensuring technological advancements are reliable.
Both Lacqua and Azhar believe retraining efforts may struggle to keep up with technological advancements. Lacqua emphasizes the need for business leaders to consider long-term impacts and challenges posed by new technologies.
Privacy and data protection are prominent themes in Lacqua's arguments. She voices concerns about her data being everywhere and advocates for robust data protection measures.
Lacqua also raises concerns about collaboration and reduced competition in life sciences. She questions whether this could stifle innovation and emphasizes the role of competition in driving progress.
Lastly, Lacqua acknowledges the reliability of current architectural systems in supporting technological advancements.
In conclusion, the analysis highlights common concerns raised by Lacqua and Azhar. These include the potential for technology surpassing human behavior, flaws in current technology, challenges of retraining efforts, the need for business leaders to consider long-term impacts, data privacy and protection, competition and innovation, and the reliability of current architectures. Addressing these concerns while promoting technological progress and societal well-being is crucial.
Joe Ucuzoglu
Joe Ucuzoglu, CEO of Deloitte, believes that transformative technology has the potential to revolutionize various industries. He points to examples such as drug discovery and transforming manufacturing through the creation of digital twins. He also suggests that this technology can make call centres more efficient. Ucuzoglu asserts that a significant amount of IT modernisation is necessary to prepare for the adoption of transformative technology. He highlights the need for improvements to get data into a usable state and the importance of companies protecting their data and intellectual property.
While Ucuzoglu is optimistic about the long-term impact of transformative technology, he acknowledges that it is not an overnight process. He feels that people tend to overstate the short-term impact and underestimate the long-term impact of transformational technology. He believes that technological advancements are rapidly accelerating and taking on tasks that were previously done by humans. However, there is concern that this rapid advancement may not replicate the positive outcomes observed in previous waves of innovation. Ucuzoglu highlights the potential social consequences if there is a significant gap in the time it takes to replace jobs.
On the topic of artificial intelligence (AI), Ucuzoglu asserts that it is being widely used and has the potential to solve humanity's greatest challenges. He specifically mentions its potential in solving issues related to climate science, improving quality of life, and addressing food security. However, there is also discussion surrounding the risks and concerns associated with AI. Some believe that it could lead to job loss and pose privacy concerns. Ucuzoglu cautions that too much emphasis on these risks and concerns might negatively influence the acceptance and implementation of AI. He believes that it is important to consider the potential benefits of AI and not solely focus on its risks.
Data sharing is a topic debated by CEOs and industry leaders. Initially, there is a tendency to protect proprietary data. However, Ucuzoglu recognises the societal value in sharing data in certain use cases. He suggests that if it can be demonstrated that aggregating patient data across organisations leads to better healthcare outcomes, there is compelling societal value in such data sharing. He also highlights the need for mechanisms, such as industry consortia or government regulation, to facilitate data sharing.
Ucuzoglu acknowledges the challenges in collecting uniform data, particularly in relation to climate change and legacy systems within corporate IT environments. He believes that the IT environment needs to be modernised before delving into the potential of large language models. He asserts that the current corporate IT environment with legacy systems, patched together solutions, and manual processes is not equipped to efficiently feed large language models.
Ucuzoglu suggests that artificial intelligence in vehicles could significantly reduce the number of deaths caused by human driving errors. He presents a theoretical scenario in which AI-driven vehicles might result in only 50,000 deaths internationally, a 90% decrease compared to the approximately half a million deaths caused by human beings each year.
Another noteworthy observation by Ucuzoglu is that people tend to hold technology to higher standards than they do human beings. Despite the potential for AI technology to dramatically reduce death rates, he speculates that the public might still reject it if it still leads to deaths. He notes that people often compare technology to an ideal of perfection, rather than comparing it to the flawed decision-making processes of humans.
Ucuzoglu emphasises the importance of embracing technological progress while also ensuring that it is handled in an ethical and responsible manner. He believes that Deloitte is fully committed to technological progress. The analysis highlights Ucuzoglu's insights on the potential of transformative technology, the concerns surrounding it, the importance of data sharing, the need to modernise IT environments, the benefits and risks of AI, and the societal response to technology.
Paul Hudson
AI is prevalent and beneficial, with 11,000 people using it daily at Cineph and achieving incredible results. However, concerns regarding data privacy and security have been raised. There is a belief that human-AI collaboration is superior to AI alone. A culture change regarding data sharing is needed, as well as a focus on retraining and reskilling in the workplace. AI brings significant productivity gains and speedy task execution. In healthcare, AI enables drug discovery for undruggable diseases. Sanofi is pioneering the use of AI in healthcare, while discussions around cloud sovereignty and cybersecurity threats overshadow its potential. Sharing data can lead to superior insights and a competitive advantage. Companies should fully adopt AI, and sectors need to understand the benefits of working together. AI has streamlined the budget process and can be accurate with proper context. The next generation of science heavily depends on AI. AI can improve safety in transportation and plays a different role than humans in defense. AI is integral in imagining and treating complex health issues. It is already disrupting industries like transportation, making services more predictable and convenient. Finding the right rules and regulations for AI is crucial, and leading during this transformative time is considered a privilege.
Azeem Azhar
The analysis explores various perspectives on the impact of AI on workforce productivity and the economy. One perspective argues that AI tools have the potential to augment creative, discretionary, and strategic thinking. These tools were initially predicted to tackle routine cognitive tasks but have also proven useful in more complex and creative work. Research shows that high-salaried jobs in consulting and strategy can benefit from AI augmentation, leading to increased productivity and efficiency.
On the other hand, some cautionary observations are made about the implications of AI. While AI can bring significant productivity gains across job tasks and categories, there is a need to be wary of its potential consequences. The historical example of automation in manufacturing causing a decline in wages relative to economic growth, known as the Engels pause, serves as a cautionary reminder. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully consider the long-term implications of AI and ensure that workers' rights and wellbeing are protected.
The analysis highlights the importance of collective bargaining and respect for workers' rights. Political unrest in the past, driven by automation, ultimately led to the establishment of a better social contract by the 20th century. Therefore, it is crucial to prioritize workers' rights and create a fair and inclusive environment amidst the technological advancements brought about by AI.
Additionally, there is a call for proactive planning for the effects of technology on the workforce. Executives are urged to consider both how technology can augment current jobs in the short term and the possibility of task replacement in the future. Retraining and creating new roles in response to technological changes are advocated as important strategies for ensuring decent work and economic growth.
The analysis highlights the need for visionary politicians who can effectively articulate the digital transition from major economies. While there is a struggle to find such leaders among the major economies, smaller economies like Estonia are praised for their ability to discuss the digital transition articulately.
The discussion acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding the effects and future developments of AI. Planning for AI's impact on the workforce is challenging due to the unpredictable and evolving nature of the technology. However, it is essential to consider the potential consequences and plan ahead to minimize negative outcomes.
Interestingly, the analysis suggests that AI may actually increase empathy, contrary to initial beliefs. Recent studies show that doctors who use language models with higher-level machine learning deliver news with greater empathy. This demonstrates a positive application of AI in enhancing human empathy and communication.
The debate about the performance of general models compared to specialist models in AI is also addressed. While historically, specialists have outperformed generalists in specific use cases, there is ongoing exploration and development in the AI field to improve the capabilities of general models.
Regarding regulation, the timing and approach to implementing AI regulations are deemed crucial. Premature regulations could lead to decisions that need to be reversed. Therefore, it is recommended to approach AI regulation with caution and allow adequate time to consider the potential consequences before implementing any rules or regulations.
Overall, the analysis concludes that while leaders should seize the opportunities presented by AI, it should be done with an understanding of its unpredictability. It is important to adopt a flexible and safe approach to exploring and deploying AI to ensure positive outcomes for workers, productivity, and society as a whole.
In summary, the analysis presents a comprehensive and multi-faceted examination of the impact of AI on workforce productivity and the economy. It advocates for the augmentation of creative and strategic thinking through AI tools while urging caution and consideration of workers' rights. It emphasizes the need for proactive planning, visionary leaders, and the promotion of positive narratives surrounding AI and augmentation. The analysis also highlights the uncertainties surrounding AI and the importance of regulation, empathy, model performance, and leveraging AI in smaller economies. Ultimately, the analysis concludes with an optimistic outlook on the potential of AI and technology to positively transform society.
Christy Hoffman
Workers across various sectors are expressing fears over their job security in light of rapid technological advancements. This is particularly evident in call centers, where the implementation of new technologies has already begun. Christy, an advocate for workers' rights, supports negotiations to ensure the fair implementation of technology and the protection of workers' benefits.
She argues that technological transitions do not necessarily lead to significant job displacements but rather require a gradual adjustment. Christy cites examples of past transitions in the banking industry, where roles were eliminated over time through attrition and early retirement. This suggests that changes in the workforce can be managed without causing sudden displacements.
Furthermore, Christy suggests that a shorter working week could be a solution to increase productivity. She refers to a study indicating that, by 2030, 80% of white-collar workers could complete their tasks in four days instead of five. By utilizing technologies like ChatGPT, university staff have already been able to accomplish the same amount of work in less time, suggesting that a reduced working week could result in improved work-life balance and greater efficiency.
Additionally, Christy emphasizes the necessity of involving workers in the AI transformation process. She believes that workers should have an active role in shaping the implementation of artificial intelligence in their workplaces. This worker-inclusive approach ensures that workers' concerns and perspectives are taken into account, leading to better outcomes for both businesses and employees.
However, there is still limited application of Generative AI (Gen AI) in large service situations, beyond call centers. This indicates untapped potential for the use of AI in the service sector, which could lead to exciting advancements in the industry.
Another significant issue highlighted by Christy is the use of actors' and writers' images and voices in the media sector. This raises questions about ownership and control, which need to be addressed through copyright law and collective bargaining. Careful consideration of rights and compensation for using actors' and writers' intellectual property is necessary to establish a fair and equitable system.
In the banking and finance sector, the use of technology has raised concerns regarding worker surveillance and job losses. The application of technology, particularly algorithmic management, has been met with opposition from workers. This emphasizes the need for increased engagement in the process of technology adoption in the finance industry.
Christy strongly advocates for addressing workers' anxiety and fear related to job loss caused by AI advancements. She argues for a worker-inclusive approach in the development and implementation of AI and augmentation technologies. This approach emphasizes transparency, consultation, retraining, and the understanding and support of workers for successful deployment.
In conclusion, workers' concerns regarding job security in the face of technological advancements, especially in call centers, are growing. Christy supports negotiations and fair implementation of technology to safeguard workers' benefits. She argues that transitions can be managed without significant job displacements and proposes a shorter working week for increased productivity. Inclusion of workers in the AI transformation process is crucial, and the limited application of AI in certain sectors, such as large service situations, presents opportunities for future growth. The use of actors' and writers' image and voice in the media sector raises questions about ownership and control that must be addressed through copyright law and collective bargaining. The banking and finance sector has experienced worker surveillance and job losses due to technology adoption, underscoring the need for greater engagement. Overall, Christy emphasizes the importance of worker inclusion, transparency, consultation, retraining, and support for the successful deployment of AI and augmentation technologies.
Nicolas Hieronimus
L'Oréal, one of the world's leading beauty companies, is fully embracing artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance various aspects of its operations. They see significant potential in using AI to boost creativity and product development, as well as in improving customer service and employee training.
The company has been using AI for a long time to streamline and optimize its formulation processes. They believe that AI can bring fresh perspectives and innovative ideas to their product development efforts. L'Oréal is investing in training its employees on AI technology, with plans to provide AI training for all 90,000 employees. They recognize the importance of AI and data-related jobs and have been hiring individuals with expertise in these areas.
L'Oréal embraces AI as a tool that can boost efficiency and improve work-life balance for employees. They still value the benefits of employees working together in an office environment and promote a hybrid approach where employees have the flexibility to work from home for two days a week.
In terms of customer service, L'Oréal is using AI to improve their interactions with customers. They have introduced Beauty Genius, a conversational AI tool that analyzes customers' faces and hair to recommend personalized beauty routines. L'Oréal aims to reduce response times to customer queries and improve accuracy.
AI is also making a significant impact on L'Oréal's research and product development efforts. The company is using AI-powered formulation tools to reformulate products under regulations. These tools are faster and can come up with structures and formulas that scientists may not have thought of.
L'Oréal emphasizes the importance of data privacy and ethical algorithms in their AI implementations. They are committed to ensuring data privacy and developing algorithms that are unbiased and ethical.
L'Oréal acknowledges the potential negative impact of advanced AI systems on the environment and is mindful of sustainability. They recognize the need to address the sustainability issues associated with AI systems due to their significant computing power.
Overall, L'Oréal's embrace of AI reflects their commitment to innovation and leveraging technology to enhance their business. AI is seen as a tool that can drive efficiency, improve outcomes, and meet the evolving needs of consumers. L'Oréal's approach highlights the importance of striking a balance between technological advancements and human involvement while maintaining ethical and sustainable practices.
Saadia Zahidi
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Large Language Models (LLMs) have received significant attention at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The impact of LLMs on jobs has been extensively examined, involving an analysis of 19,000 tasks from 800 jobs. The analysis revealed that approximately 40% of these tasks could potentially be affected through automation or augmentation.
The potential for AI and LLMs to automate or augment tasks in various industries raises concerns about job displacement. However, it is important to note that not all tasks are equally vulnerable. The analysis showed that around 60% of the tasks remain unaffected by AI and LLMs. This indicates that while certain areas may experience disruptions, there are still a considerable number of tasks that these technologies cannot easily replace.
Additionally, the analysis conducted by the World Economic Forum highlighted the potential for job augmentation. Many jobs demonstrate a high potential for augmentation, which can enhance job roles and increase productivity. This suggests that AI and LLMs have the capacity not only to replace certain tasks but also to support and assist workers in their existing roles. Therefore, augmentation can positively contribute to job growth and productivity across various sectors.
The analysis and findings presented at the Forum underscore the complex and nuanced impact of AI and LLMs on the future of work. While addressing and mitigating potential job displacement is imperative, it is equally crucial to recognize the potential for job enhancement and increased productivity through the use of these technologies. This emphasizes the need for businesses and policymakers to develop strategies that embrace the potential benefits of AI and LLMs while ensuring a smooth transition for workers potentially affected by automation.
In conclusion, the World Economic Forum's examination of the impact of AI and LLMs on jobs reveals that approximately 40% of tasks across 800 jobs could potentially be affected, while approximately 60% of tasks remain unaffected. Moreover, many jobs demonstrate a high potential for augmentation, providing opportunities to enhance job roles and productivity. Striking a balance between addressing potential job displacement and harnessing the benefits of AI and LLMs is essential.
Speakers
AA
Azeem Azhar
Speech speed
209 words per minute
Speech length
1391 words
Speech time
400 secs
CH
Christy Hoffman
Speech speed
202 words per minute
Speech length
1390 words
Speech time
412 secs
FL
Francine Lacqua
Speech speed
237 words per minute
Speech length
1480 words
Speech time
375 secs
JU
Joe Ucuzoglu
Speech speed
185 words per minute
Speech length
1481 words
Speech time
482 secs
NH
Nicolas Hieronimus
Speech speed
197 words per minute
Speech length
1502 words
Speech time
457 secs
PH
Paul Hudson
Speech speed
209 words per minute
Speech length
1855 words
Speech time
531 secs
SZ
Saadia Zahidi
Speech speed
173 words per minute
Speech length
346 words
Speech time
120 secs
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