On Guard, from Deep Sea to Orbit
21 Jan 2026 12:15h - 13:00h
On Guard, from Deep Sea to Orbit
Session at a glance
Summary
This panel discussion at Davos focused on the critical infrastructure that spans from deep sea cables to orbital satellites, examining both the opportunities and vulnerabilities of these systems that underpin modern life. The panelists included Josef Aschbacher from the European Space Agency, Jessica Rosenworcel from MIT Media Lab and former FCC chairwoman, satellite entrepreneur Rafal Modrzewski from ICEYE, and cybersecurity expert Robert M. Lee from Dragos.
Jessica Rosenworcel opened by highlighting that approximately 12,000 active satellites and 600 submarine cables handle 99% of international data traffic, supporting everything from GPS navigation to financial transactions, yet these systems remain largely invisible and extraordinarily vulnerable to threats ranging from space weather to malicious attacks. Josef Aschbacher emphasized how space infrastructure serves 11 of the 16 most critical sectors of society, noting that the number of satellites could reach 100,000 by decade’s end, creating unprecedented challenges around space debris and frequency management.
Rafal Modrzewski shared ICEYE’s journey from a student project to securing a €1.4 billion contract with the German military for a 40-satellite constellation capable of monitoring ground movements every 30 minutes regardless of weather conditions. He demonstrated how the same radar imaging technology serves civilian purposes, from insurance claim processing during natural disasters to forest management. Robert M. Lee warned that while companies invest heavily in enterprise IT security, they typically spend less than 5% of budgets protecting operational technology that actually generates revenue, leaving critical infrastructure vulnerable to cyber attacks that could cause physical harm.
The discussion revealed a fundamental challenge: while these technologies offer unprecedented capabilities for climate monitoring, emergency response, and global connectivity, the regulatory frameworks governing them remain outdated and fragmented. The panelists concluded that addressing these vulnerabilities requires unprecedented international cooperation, updated regulations, and alignment between government policies and private sector capabilities to protect infrastructure that has become essential to modern civilization.
Keypoints
Major Discussion Points:
– Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability: The discussion emphasized how modern life depends on approximately 12,000 satellites and 600 submarine cables that are largely invisible to the public but extraordinarily vulnerable to threats ranging from space weather and orbital debris to intentional jamming and malicious attacks by state actors.
– Rapid Growth and Democratization of Space Technology: The panel highlighted the exponential increase in satellite deployment (potentially reaching 100,000 by decade’s end) and how dramatically reduced costs have democratized space access, allowing even college students to launch satellites and small companies to build major constellations with military-grade capabilities.
– Cybersecurity Gaps in Physical Infrastructure: A significant focus was placed on the critical gap between enterprise IT security (well-developed) and operational technology (OT) security for physical systems like power grids, water systems, and satellite networks, with most companies spending less than 5% of their budget on protecting revenue-generating operational infrastructure.
– Dual-Use Applications and Military Implications: The conversation explored how satellite technology serves both civilian purposes (insurance claims, climate monitoring, navigation) and military/defense applications, with examples like Germany’s €1.4 billion satellite constellation for monitoring troop movements and the strategic importance of space-based assets in modern warfare.
– Need for International Cooperation and Governance: The panel stressed that current regulatory frameworks (some dating to the 1950s) are inadequate for managing shared spaces like orbit and ocean floors, requiring unprecedented global cooperation to address debris management, frequency allocation, and cybersecurity standards across borders.
Overall Purpose:
The discussion aimed to educate the audience about the critical importance of space and undersea infrastructure that underpins modern civilization, while highlighting the significant vulnerabilities and security challenges these systems face. The panel sought to raise awareness about how dependent society has become on these “invisible” technologies and the urgent need for better protection, regulation, and international cooperation.
Overall Tone:
The discussion maintained a balanced tone that was simultaneously informative and concerning. It began with an educational focus, explaining the scope and importance of the infrastructure, then shifted to a more urgent tone when discussing vulnerabilities and active threats. The conversation concluded on a cautiously optimistic note, with panelists emphasizing both the tremendous opportunities these technologies offer (connecting 2 billion unconnected people, advancing climate research, enabling new capabilities) and the achievable nature of the security solutions, while maintaining realistic concern about the challenges ahead. Throughout, the tone remained professional and expert-driven, with panelists drawing from extensive real-world experience rather than theoretical concerns.
Speakers
– Brian Wright: Moderator of the session, President of Georgia Tech (mentioned as Angel Cabrera in error during introduction), leads a large research university in Atlanta with growing focus on cybersecurity programs
– Rafal Modrzewski: European entrepreneur, co-founder of ICEYE (satellite company), leading operator of SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) satellites for Earth observation regardless of weather conditions
– Robert M. Lee: Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of Dragos, a company that helps organizations deal with cybersecurity incidents, specializes in operational technology (OT) security
– Josef Aschbacher: Director General of the European Space Agency (ESA), leads organization with almost 8 billion euros budget and more than 6,000 employees, manages complex partnerships for European space program
– Jessica Rosenworcel: Current Director of the MIT Media Lab, former Chairwoman of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission
Additional speakers:
– Audience: Multiple audience members asked questions, including:
– Tris Jahanian from Carnegie Mellon University (background in computer systems for financial institutions, networking)
– Vice Minister of high-tech industry from Armenia (working in orbital operation and space program, cybersecurity)
– Roman Larkin, Chief Executive Officer of Aldoria
Full session report
Critical Infrastructure in the Digital Age: From Deep Sea Cables to Orbital Satellites
Executive Summary
This comprehensive panel discussion at Davos examined the critical infrastructure that spans from submarine cables on ocean floors to satellite constellations in orbit, exploring both the unprecedented opportunities and extraordinary vulnerabilities of systems that have become essential to modern civilisation. Moderated by Angel Cabrera, President of Georgia Tech, the panel brought together leading experts including Josef Aschbacher, Director General of the European Space Agency; Jessica Rosenworcel, Director of the MIT Media Lab and former Chairwoman of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission; Rafal Modrzewski, co-founder of satellite company ICEYE; and Robert M. Lee, CEO of cybersecurity firm Dragos.
The discussion revealed a fundamental paradox of modern infrastructure: the systems most critical to daily life—approximately 12,000 active satellites and 600 submarine cables handling 99% of international data traffic—remain largely invisible to the public whilst being extraordinarily vulnerable to threats ranging from natural phenomena to deliberate attacks. The panel explored how rapid technological democratisation has transformed space from an exclusive domain of superpowers to an accessible frontier for university students, creating both remarkable opportunities and unprecedented security challenges that current regulatory frameworks are ill-equipped to manage.
The Invisible Foundation of Modern Life
Jessica Rosenworcel opened the discussion by highlighting a striking paradox that defines modern infrastructure dependency. She explained that approximately 12,000 satellites orbiting Earth and 600 submarine cables crossing ocean floors share two critical characteristics: “We don’t think about them very often, because satellites are in our upper atmosphere, most people don’t see them, and submarine cables are buried in the deep, dark depths of the ocean. The second thing that they have in common is… are both extraordinarily vulnerable.”
This infrastructure supports fundamental aspects of daily life that most people take for granted. GPS navigation systems guide everything from personal smartphones to commercial shipping. Financial transactions worth trillions of dollars flow through these networks daily. Emergency services rely on satellite communications for coordination during disasters. Yet this critical foundation remains largely invisible to the public consciousness, creating a dangerous disconnect between dependency and awareness.
Josef Aschbacher reinforced this point by emphasising the scope of space infrastructure’s integration into society. “Space infrastructure serves 11 of the 16 most critical sectors of society,” he noted, including banking, stock trading, navigation systems, and emergency services. The European Space Agency director highlighted how this dependency will only intensify as satellite numbers could reach 100,000 by the decade’s end, creating unprecedented challenges around space debris management and frequency allocation.
The Space Technology Revolution and Democratisation
The discussion revealed how dramatically the space industry has transformed over the past decade. Rafal Modrzewski provided a compelling personal narrative that illustrated this democratisation: “Ten years ago, I was actually a college student at the university and so was my friend Pekka, and we were building a satellite the size of a milk carton… Not only we managed to put it together but we actually have put it together in less than two years.”
This transformation from student project to major military contractor exemplifies how barriers to space entry have collapsed. ICEYE’s journey demonstrates the new reality where small teams can develop satellite constellations capable of monitoring ground conditions every 30 minutes regardless of weather. In December 2024, the company achieved what Modrzewski described as “the largest contract in new space company history” – a 1.4 billion euro contract with the German defence ministry.
The technological capabilities now available to relatively small organisations are remarkable. ICEYE’s synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites serve dual purposes: civilian applications including insurance claim processing during natural disasters and forest management, alongside military surveillance capabilities. Modrzewski explained how their technology has enabled innovative applications, such as helping Japanese car insurance companies detect flood damage by comparing before-and-after satellite images.
Josef Aschbacher highlighted how artificial intelligence integration is further revolutionising satellite capabilities. He described how a “70 euros” AI chip from Amazon can be integrated into satellites, enabling automatic detection of forest fires, cloud coverage, and other phenomena, reducing data transmission requirements and improving response times. This advancement allows satellites to process information autonomously, transmitting only relevant data rather than raw imagery.
The democratisation extends beyond commercial applications. Modrzewski referenced how even Elon Musk’s Tesla launch into space demonstrated the new accessibility of space technology, illustrating how what was once the exclusive domain of superpowers has become accessible to private companies and even university students.
Advanced Space Missions and Scientific Applications
Aschbacher described several cutting-edge missions that demonstrate the frontier possibilities of space technology. The European Space Agency’s Euclid mission is exploring dark matter and dark energy, fundamental components of the universe that remain poorly understood. The Hera mission, working in conjunction with NASA’s DART mission, involves sending spacecraft to asteroids to study planetary defence capabilities.
These missions showcase how modern space technology combines scientific exploration with practical applications. The same AI capabilities that enable autonomous asteroid exploration also support Earth observation systems that provide unprecedented insights into climate change, disaster response, and environmental monitoring.
Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities in Critical Infrastructure
Robert M. Lee brought a sobering perspective to the discussion by highlighting critical gaps in cybersecurity protection for operational technology systems. His expertise in industrial cybersecurity revealed a dangerous disconnect between public perception and reality regarding infrastructure protection.
“Companies typically spend less than 5% of their budget on operational technology security despite generating all revenue from that side,” Lee explained. This creates a fundamental vulnerability where organisations invest heavily in protecting enterprise IT systems whilst leaving the systems that actually generate revenue and control physical processes largely unprotected.
The implications of this gap are severe and immediate. Lee shared disturbing insights from his experience: “I’ve been involved in many cases where people were hurt or explosions or impacts and they didn’t think cyber was involved and it was.” This revelation suggests that cyber attacks on critical infrastructure may already be occurring more frequently than recognised, with physical consequences being attributed to other causes due to lack of visibility and detection capabilities.
The cybersecurity expert emphasised that basic protective measures are often absent from critical systems. “There’s 55,000 water systems in the United States, most of them don’t have a firewall, like let’s start there, let’s do the basics,” he noted, highlighting how discussions of advanced cybersecurity measures often overlook fundamental protections that remain unimplemented.
Lee also addressed the moral dimension of infrastructure security, challenging traditional notions of corporate risk autonomy: “You can make all the risk decisions you want about your company, but the moment it goes outside your fence line and kills my kids, I don’t think that you’re authorized to have that risk choice.”
Space Debris and Traffic Management Challenges
The rapid proliferation of satellites has created an urgent need for space traffic management and debris mitigation. Josef Aschbacher outlined the scale of the challenge: satellite numbers are projected to grow from the current 12,000 to potentially 100,000 by the end of the decade, creating significant collision risks and debris concerns.
The European Space Agency has implemented the Zero Debris initiative, which requires satellite operators to remove satellites from orbit at the end of their operational life to prevent collisions and explosions. However, Aschbacher acknowledged that not all space actors are responsible participants in debris mitigation efforts, creating ongoing risks for all orbital operations.
Rafal Modrzewski explained how modern satellite operators address these challenges through automated collision avoidance systems, but noted that not all space actors are responsible participants. ICEYE’s satellites can autonomously adjust their orbits to avoid potential collisions, but this capability is not universal across all satellite operators.
The need for comprehensive space traffic management systems similar to air traffic control has become urgent. Current approaches are insufficient for managing the projected growth in orbital objects, requiring international cooperation and standardised protocols for orbital operations.
International Cooperation and Regulatory Challenges
A central theme throughout the discussion was the inadequacy of current regulatory frameworks for managing modern space and submarine cable infrastructure. Jessica Rosenworcel highlighted this challenge, noting that current regulatory frameworks are outdated, relying on treaties from decades past for managing modern space infrastructure.
The international nature of these systems creates complex governance challenges. Rosenworcel explained: “I don’t think it’s enough for individual governments to manage this risk because we’re dealing with facilities that depend on shared spaces, upper atmosphere, the ocean, and we’re going to have to globally wrap our arms around the fact that we could have 100,000 satellites in space.”
Robert M. Lee identified specific challenges in aligning different regulatory approaches, noting that economic regulators often don’t align with national security policies, preventing companies from investing in necessary security measures. This disconnect creates situations where governments mandate cybersecurity requirements whilst economic regulators resist funding the necessary investments.
The panel discussion included perspectives from international audience members, including a Vice Minister from Armenia working in orbital operations and cybersecurity, who emphasised the need for both global and local cooperation mechanisms. This highlighted how smaller nations are also grappling with these challenges and seeking frameworks that accommodate both international standards and local priorities.
Josef Aschbacher acknowledged the regulatory challenges whilst expressing caution about over-regulation: “I’m not a big friend of huge regulations,” he stated, whilst recognising that some regulatory framework is necessary for managing space traffic and debris.
Dual-Use Applications and Security Implications
The discussion explored how satellite technology increasingly serves both civilian and military purposes, creating complex security and policy challenges. ICEYE provides a clear example: the same radar imaging technology that helps insurance companies process claims during natural disasters also enables military surveillance capabilities for defence contracts.
This dual-use nature creates strategic vulnerabilities, as civilian infrastructure becomes militarily significant and therefore potentially targeted by adversaries. Roman Larkin, CEO of Aldoria, raised this concern during the audience questions: “How can we protect space infrastructure from hostile attacks, not just debris?” This question highlighted how the increasing military relevance of civilian satellites creates new categories of threats beyond traditional space hazards.
The dual-use nature of these technologies means that civilian scientific missions often have potential military applications, complicating international cooperation and technology sharing whilst creating new security considerations for infrastructure protection.
Future Opportunities and Global Connectivity
Despite the significant challenges discussed, the panel maintained an optimistic outlook regarding the transformative potential of space and submarine cable technologies. Jessica Rosenworcel highlighted how space technology can provide internet access to billions of people currently without connectivity at lower costs than terrestrial solutions.
The democratisation of space technology creates unprecedented opportunities for innovation and global connectivity. Real-time Earth imaging capabilities offer revolutionary possibilities for emergency response, climate monitoring, and disaster management. The ability to monitor global conditions continuously and respond rapidly to emerging threats represents a fundamental advancement in human capability.
An audience member from Carnegie Mellon University raised questions about distributed processing and AI capabilities in space systems, highlighting the potential for even more sophisticated applications as computing power becomes more accessible in orbital environments.
Areas of Consensus and Key Disagreements
The panel demonstrated remarkable consensus on several fundamental issues whilst revealing important disagreements about implementation approaches. All speakers agreed on the critical dependency of modern society on space and submarine cable infrastructure, the extraordinary vulnerability of these systems, and the urgent need for international cooperation.
However, significant disagreements emerged regarding the appropriate balance between government regulation and private sector innovation. Robert M. Lee advocated for stronger regulatory intervention to force companies to invest in cybersecurity, whilst Josef Aschbacher expressed scepticism about extensive regulations, preferring market-driven solutions where possible.
Another area of disagreement concerned priorities for security improvements. Lee emphasised the need to focus on basic security fundamentals before pursuing advanced technologies, whilst Aschbacher highlighted the importance of implementing cutting-edge AI solutions in space infrastructure.
Unresolved Challenges and Future Directions
The discussion identified several critical challenges that remain unresolved and require urgent attention. The enforcement of responsible behaviour among space actors presents a particular challenge when market entry barriers are low and international regulations are weak. The question of how to protect satellite infrastructure from hostile military attacks, especially when civilian satellites serve military purposes, remains largely unanswered.
The fundamental tension between increasing satellite numbers for enhanced capability versus growing debris risk requires careful management through international cooperation and technological solutions. The development of active debris removal systems represents both a technical and regulatory challenge that demands coordinated international effort.
Cybersecurity visibility remains a critical gap, with many infrastructure systems worldwide lacking the capability to detect cyber attacks. This lack of visibility means that many incidents may go unrecognised as cyber-related, potentially masking the true scope of current threats.
Conclusion
This comprehensive discussion revealed the complex interdependencies that define modern critical infrastructure, from the ocean depths to orbital space. The technological capabilities now available offer unprecedented opportunities for global connectivity, climate monitoring, and emergency response, but the security and governance frameworks necessary to protect these systems require urgent development and international coordination.
The panel’s insights emphasised that addressing these challenges requires unprecedented international cooperation, updated regulatory frameworks, and alignment between government policies and private sector capabilities. The combination of technological innovation, international cooperation, and appropriate regulatory frameworks can address current vulnerabilities whilst enabling the transformative potential of these critical infrastructure systems.
The discussion ultimately demonstrated that whilst the challenges are significant, the opportunities for positive impact are equally remarkable. From university students launching successful space companies to AI-powered satellites autonomously detecting global threats, the democratisation of space technology represents both the greatest opportunity and the greatest challenge facing critical infrastructure in the digital age.
Session transcript
Good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to what’s going to be, I’m sure, an exciting and very informative session on guard from deep sea to orbit. And I want to welcome all of you for having chosen wisely this exciting session, but also to everybody following us online. We really have an outstanding panel to help us further understand how all of our lives and our businesses depend on basic infrastructure crossing the bottom of our oceans and orbiting the earth from all those assets to working well and also to dig a little deep into what can go wrong if we don’t take care of those assets.
With me are Josef Aschbacher, who’s the director general of the European Space Agency, a pretty big organization, almost 8 billion euros, more than 6,000, and a huge amount of very complex partnerships to lead European space program.
Also next to us, Jessica Rosenworcel, who is now the director of the MIT Media Lab, just absolutely very unique organization in American higher education. But before that, she served as chairwoman of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission.
Next to her, we have a European entrepreneur, Rafael Matruski, who cofounded an incredibly interesting satellite company with, I think, a Finnish co-founder, and it’s now the leading operator of a type of satellite that can make observations of the earth no matter what the weather conditions.
might be. He uses radar as opposed to light waves. We’ll learn about it in a second and why that kind of technology matters.
And at the end, we have Robert M. Lee, who’s the co-founder and chief executive officer of Dragos, a company that helps organizations deal when things go wrong. This is the man you call.
I’m Angel Cabrera, president of Georgia Tech, a large research university in the great city of Atlanta, and increasingly busy with issues around cyber security. We have not only research programs, but increasingly academic programs. There’s a growing interest in this space, and what I’ve learned from my colleagues is that some of the most interesting and complex challenges are not just software challenges, but at the intersection between software and physical systems.
But we’re going to learn a little bit about all of that. But to get us started, I would love for Jessica, since she had that very unique policy position in the United States, to help us understand why and how deeply our lives depend on all of that infrastructure, space assets, undersea cables, and all of the above.
Jessica?
Sure. Let me start with the big picture. There are about 12,000 active satellites in our skies and about 600 submarine cables.
Almost everything in modern life depends on them. Global positioning systems that are used by vehicles, militaries, financial transactions, earth monitoring, weather, 99% of the world’s international data traffic. And they have two things in common.
We don’t think about them very often, because satellites are in our upper atmosphere, most people don’t see them, and submarine cables are buried in the deep, dark depths of the ocean. The second thing that they have in common is… are both extraordinarily vulnerable.
Our satellites are vulnerable to everything from space weather to intentional jamming to orbital debris and anti-satellite missile technology. And our submarine cables, well, aquatic life could nibble at them and cause real harm or there could be malicious actors who actually cut them and we’ve seen some of that in hot spots around the world like the Red Sea.
So these two facilities that most people never think about are so fundamental for modern life and they’re also fundamentally vulnerable.
Thank you, thank you for that overview. We’ll get back to you with a couple more questions, but before that, Josef, of course, you’re more involved with assets orbiting above us and are we doing all we need to be doing to protect those assets and make sure that our phones continue to work, our GPS and more important systems continue to work?
No, first of all, thank you and what Jessica was just saying is absolutely right. We have all these assets in space, there are thousands of satellites, today about 12,000 and the number keeps increasing literally by the day. There are some predictions that say that this will go into the tens of thousands if not close to 100,000 by the end of the decade or within a couple of years.
So this is really asymptotically increasing and yes, your question is a very good one. Do we do enough to protect them? First of all, space, and this is not so widely known, is literally serving many domains of society.
You mentioned navigation, also telecommunications, Earth observation and many other hardware space-based information is really serving people every day, every single minute. If you make a bank transfer from one place to another, if you trade on the stock market, you need very precise timing from P&T systems. If the precise timing is not there, you can not compare the quotes, and there for you stock trade for example could not be executed.
The same applies if you retrieve money from the ATM machine, navigation, it’s literally used not only in the mobile phone to go here to there, cars and many other things, but also for security and defence, space literally is entering many of those.
The OLCD is doing studies to access most critical sectors of society. There are 16 of those, from transport, to energy, to health and many others, 11 of those need space infrastructure or could not do without space infrastructure, because space is not only serving the space domain, but many other domains.
So this is really something that people don’t realize how dependent we are, and therefore your question is very valid one. I think there we have to catch up, we have to do more. This is on one side to make sure our assets are protected against jamming, against interferences and disturbances, but also, and you mentioned something earlier in the morning that I fully agree with you, is the usage of frequencies in one side, but also debris, debris becomes more and more of an issue.
Those satellite at the end of their life are not controllable, they are flying in orbit, with orbit space agency initiated something what we call a Zero Debris initiative, or Zero Debris Chapter where more than a 180 signatures today confirm that if they sign up to this chapter, they promise that at the end of the life of the satellite they take the satellite of the orbit, and that is essential, because otherwise you have a dead satellite in orbit, which of course can cause harm, can be colliding with others or can, the fuel tank is exposed to very high temperature changes between the night side and the day side, and therefore sometimes explodes, and therefore causes debris.
So all of this causes the danger that is out there that has to be managed, that has to be taken out of orbit. And this is something we are working on a lot, both in terms of awareness, but also implementing technologies that help doing that. So yes, there is a lot to be done, and I think people now become more and more aware of how much needs to be done to protect space assets for our daily life.
because the cost of building a satellite and launching a satellite has declined so exponentially that now virtually a student in college can create a CubeSat and have it launched. Do you mind telling us a little bit of the story of how these two European young men decide to create a satellite company and why it matters? Because I’ve heard some of the applications of your technology and it’s pretty impressive.
Sure, thank you very much for having me over here and I think the topic is exceptionally important today for two main reasons. One, we know that this satellite technology as well as the deep sea cables, they are infrastructure supporting our civilian lives, but they are also an element which has a dual use and this the second part of the use, which is the military use, is probably even more important today than it has been in the past.
And the capabilities that the satellites provide us when it comes to military technology and the provision of security is actually extremely important. And the second element over here is that there actually has been quite a big transformation when it comes to how we look at space and who produces space capabilities and why. And this is indeed a little bit of the starting part of ICE’s story.
I will take it maybe a little bit from the back because, you know, just This December, so about three weeks ago, from the perspective of our company, we have reached a major milestone. That was a major milestone both for us but also for the European Security and Defense. The German government, Bundeswehr, has decided to build a 40-satellite constellation, 40-satellite, SAR-satellite constellation, purely for Earth observation, and that’s a 1.4 billion euro contract.
So that’s the largest contract that we have seen when it comes to new space companies in the history of new space companies. That’s one of the largest single Earth observation contracts and it’s by far the largest constellation of satellites dedicated to Earth observation. Now this contract has gone to ISAI in partnership with a company, which obviously you’re all familiar with, called DryMetal.
Both of us work on that but, you know, that happened this December. Ten years ago, I was actually a college student at the university and so was my friend Pekka, and we were building a satellite the size of a milk carton. Back then it was three kilograms, it was a bunch of students, maybe there were 15 of us, all of us up 23, 22 years old, and we were all starting to put it together.
Not only we managed to put it together but we actually have put it together in less than two years. Now that transformation is very recent and it has basically allowed significantly smaller groups of people with less infrastructure than we had in the past build capabilities that are comparable to what we used to launch into space and very often actually significantly superior.
Now where does the superiority of the small satellites lie and why the German government is spending so much money? They have a Panzer Brigade stationary in Lithuania and they are interested to know what’s happening around the Panzer Brigade. Should they be ready for an attack or should they not be ready for an attack?
How to combine this information? When they put together a constellation of 40 satellites using a radar imaging system like ours, they can take a picture of all the surrounding areas of this Panzer Brigade every 30 minutes. Every 30 minutes, regardless of weather conditions or time of day, They are going to get an information of, is there any movement of foreign adversarial troops around the Panzer Brigade, or do they have to prepare for being attacked or not?
This kind of capabilities is strictly linked to the amount of satellites that we have launched. And that’s why Josef has been mentioning that today we have 12,000. Probably five years ago, there was 2,000.
We’re actually expecting up to 100,000 by the end of the decade. And the reason why this number is growing so quickly is because the capabilities that we can unlock with the mass amount of satellites are actually significantly better and more capable than what we used to do with one satellite.
That’s why Starlink is ultimately so many satellites. And this is why it’s important to pay attention to this. Because as you can see, not only a complete new set of capabilities is being uncovered, but also a whole new set of actors.
Significantly smaller companies moving much faster, moving at speed that is highly unprecedented, brings capabilities that become a lever for international global politics.
That’s terrific. Do you mind sharing also the insurance application and the natural design? I was fascinated by that application.
Sure, and look, the interesting thing about the company, if you look at the name EyeSight, it actually has nothing to do with defense. It’s a combination of words eyes and I. We have just removed one of the Es.
That’s how clever we were back then. When we started the company, the intention of it was to use this frequent imaging capability to support climate research and information gathering about the climate change. It’s actually fascinating because the other biggest Earth observation system that exists today that has this particular purpose is the Sentinel system or the system of Sentinel satellites under Copernicus.
And the father of that system is Josef, who is sitting over here. So the connection between us is uncanny. But look, that was the intention.
are going to look at the ice cap in order to support the future of vessel traffic in the Arctic Ocean. Now the important thing about the satellites and why we should actually build them today is look, they are important to secure our defense capabilities and ensure that our nation stays safe. But the exact same infrastructure, the same way as GPS is both being used to target missiles as well as make sure that you get to home safely, is actually going to be used for making sure that insurance companies can function more efficiently, that we can manage our forests, that we can manage our mines.
The ability to observe Earth with frequency as high as 20, 30 minutes with resolutions as low as 15 centimeters means that when, for instance, recently when we did a fire in Los Angeles, Los Angeles fire happens.
It turns out that when a fire happens, not every house burns. We actually don’t know how many houses have burned in what neighborhood. How are you going to deploy your resources when you have always limited amount of fire brigades?
How are you going to deploy them not knowing where the fire has consumed majority of the infrastructure and where they didn’t? Space offers a solution to problems like this, where it is actually paying claims at the end of the day from the insurance infrastructure perspective or just helping save those people out there. And to give you a glimpse of the future, I actually love this example that we did in Japan.
So we are deploying our satellite technology to help support car insurance. So if you own a car in Japan, you’re actually insuring it against floods. It floods so often in Japan that very often a flood happens.
It consumes your car and then obviously it’s destroyed and you have to get your insurance claim. Now today when a flood happens, we detect the flood. We take a picture of the flood.
We measure the depth of the water. The insurance companies actually know where your car is at any given point in time. We are able to determine the depth of the water within 24 hours from the moment the flood starts.
If they realize that there was more than one meter of water where your car is located, you’re automatically getting your claim.
I’m guessing that most companies overestimate how safe their business models are and that that’s actually good business for you right because then they call you when they’re they’re they’re in trouble.
What’s your assessment?
I like to be called before much better than being the guy that’s just representing your worst day in life but generally speaking when we look at this infrastructure we’re talking about like a space revolution and a lot of discussions on like the AI revolution all these different things require infrastructure and there’s all the data centers and energy grids and every component that goes into it and it’s all physical and forever like for the entire sort of history of cybersecurity we’ve talked about things in the world of data and systems and enterprise IT and while those are very important all the stuff that we’re actually talking about here is all the physical stuff we talk about that as operations technology OT and that’s been something that’s just been massively under invested it’s an area that largely gets very little attention and what you’ll find even in government briefings and executive briefings and board of director briefings is they’ll get all the pretty slides and all the green KPIs and everything that we’re okay we’re okay we’re okay and they’re only talking about the enterprise IT side the operation side where they generate all the revenue generally they’re spending less than 5% of their budget actually dealing with that so all that operational side and turns to therapy sessions honestly in the instant response cases with the CEOs they said well I thought it were invested or I thought I did that I made all these things I had this regulation and compliance and we’re good it’s like that side of the business not that side of the business and others.
That side of the business is what we’re all talking about here. And I think it’s really important to understand that while companies are awesome and private companies are great and I run one, they’re still going to do things in the interest of profit. They’re still going to do interest of let’s get into the market as quickly as possible.
Not everybody is as thoughtful as let’s take our satellites down when we’re done with them. And that’s true of infrastructure companies as well and the startups that support them. What that largely means is the cybersecurity stuff and the cybersecurity spend gets put last.
And what you end up having is a lot of connected infrastructure. We’ve seen a cyber attack against the Polish grid last year in December. That’s going to become more and more normal.
We started seeing that as early as 2015. Dealing with a lot of the incidents, dealing with a lot of customers that have our software deployed all over the world, we see a lot more than you’ll ever see in the media. And it is a very, very large ongoing thing.
It’s not a one day we’re going to see these attacks. We see them all the time. We’re talking about attacks that explicitly target human life.
We had one of those cases where somebody, a state actor, broke in just trying to kill people. These things become more and more and more real. And as we get more and more connections and more and more infrastructure, and we continue to ignore the very real scenarios that are already taking place, we could very much find ourselves in a world where we’re causing societal harm by the very innovation that we’re trying to capture.
Are businesses hearing your message when you get to them before?
Yeah. Yes. And so what’s really interesting, I think, on this topic is I find it easier to talk to a president or a prime minister or a board member or CEO about this topic than I do many in the security community.
It’s very quick that a CEO goes, oh, yes, of course, I operate wind farms. Those are important. The cybersecurity of those matter.
But a lot of the cybersecurity community has been, again, built up on enterprise IT. So if you’ve come out of help desk, if you’ve come out of IT infrastructure support, you’ve had a beautiful career that’s wonderful, and thank you for all that you’re doing, but you’ve never spent time at the plant, you’ve never gone to the substation, you don’t know any of that side of the business.
and others. And I think what is really important is that we have a very strong understanding of the role of government in protecting the privacy of our citizens. I think that’s a really important thing to understand.
And I think that’s a really important thing to understand. So, I’m finding that governments are actually more ahead on this topic than some of the individual companies themselves that should be, but at the same time, those governments oftentimes have economic policies that are not in line with the national security policies.
Your electric operators in Spain and Portugal, as an example with the power outages that happened there earlier last year. You talk to those CEOs, you talk to the CEO of ADP and so forth, I had a conversation here with them, extremely well-informed, knows exactly what to do. Many of these asset owners and operators understand it, but there’s not the money and resources to actually do something about it.
And so, at the same time that the Australian government, as an example, goes out and says we have this new SOCI regulation, we’re going to really start requiring companies to do this, those companies turn around and go to their economic regulator, and the economic regulator says we’re not paying for that.
And so, it’s very difficult, I think, for these companies to really get ahead of this, and there really needs to be an alignment in governments to understand that, and especially when you look at very connected governments, like here in the continent of Europe, we have a lot of governments that have to work together.
Spain, Portugal, Poland, they’re all connected on the same electric system, and that electric system is supporting your satellite system, it’s supporting everything else, so it’s very complicated, but at the same time, what I would leave you with is the scenarios of what we need to prepare for are very well known, and we know exactly what to do sometimes on these things, the investments are very straightforward, it’s not like we’re trying to come up with some net new innovation to keep ahead of the adversaries, sometimes it’s very basic, I got asked in Congress last year, why aren’t we doing more in our water sector and so forth, and do we need quantum encryption and AI and everything else, I said, Congressman, with all due respect, there’s 55,000 water systems in the United States, most of them don’t have a firewall, like let’s start there, let’s do the basics, and then we can be a much better place.
Fascinating. And Jessica, as someone who’s been inside of government until relatively recently, do you think government is fully aware of the risks, and that we’re doing an offer, what’s your assessment?
The risks are enormous. and I think we have to develop a more cooperative relationship between our governments and our industry to try to understand what those problems are, where those vulnerabilities are, and how to fix them.
That’s cool. Josef, you mentioned that there’s a whole bunch of exciting new technologies. Give us, what are those exciting technologies that you think hold the greatest promise?
I mean, there are literally a large variety of technologies that are quite, I would say, breaking the frontiers of what we know today, and this really starts exploring our universe. If you really want to understand how the universe is composed and what it is made of, very few people know that our universe, everything we see, all the stars, the moon, the sun, all the planets, everything we see is only 5% of the universe.
95% we don’t see, because they are what we call dark energy and dark matter. And yes, we have a mission called Euclid, which is exploring exactly these secrets of the universe. But let’s get a bit closer to our planet Earth.
Everyone talks here in Davos about artificial intelligence and how this is being utilized. Of course, in space, this is something we utilize a lot. ESA was, in fact, the first one who used an AI chip, which we bought on Amazon, not making promotion of any of the distributors, but for 70 euros.
And I was challenging my own team whether such an AI chip could be brought into space together with an imaging sensor, which is looking at the Earth. We trained the AI chip to recognize certain patterns. Today, you may say this is common practice.
Yes, it is in the meantime, but we were the first one to test it. We trained the AI chip to distinguish cloud-covered… from cloud-free areas, to therefore reduce the amount of data that is being transmitted down to Earth because the cloud-covered areas we couldn’t use.
And at the time when we did it, people said, no, no, this will never work, this is too complicated, this is too exciting, this is too difficult to do. It worked, and today we have many satellites doing exactly that. In fact, we have a more clever AI chip now flying, who is looking at forest fires automatically, a bit what Rafal was saying before, that you detect from space already when a fire starts, not until somebody discovers it and then informs the fire brigade, but you already see it from space the moment the satellite flies over, there’s a fire, and sends an alarm to whoever needs to act upon it, and of course you can use the same AI chip to detect troops or movements or whatever for security and defence.
So AI is something quite important. We use it, of course, also for our missions. I’ll give you another example.
We have one mission called Hera that is flying to an asteroid, actually two asteroids, that have been, one of them has been hit by NASA with the DART mission, literally with an impact on the asteroid in order to see how the asteroid is, what it is made of, and how, you know, whether it breaks apart or whether there’s a crater and how it looks like.
But why do we do that? NASA was hitting the asteroid, we observe it in order to understand what happened and what material it is composed of. And we do it because there’s another asteroid coming and there we have to use artificial intelligence because our mission flies there, the distance is so large that it would take 20 minutes and forth and back to command a satellite.
So the satellite has its own imaging sets and sensors, detects what is around, an asteroid is not just one chunk of rocks and other material, it’s really accompanied by many different breakages. to study it and make sure that, of course, there is nothing happening. We know that it’s so everyone can be reassured.
It’s not it’s not hitting our planet, but it is coming very close to within the what we call the geostationary arc. So you would see it with your open eyes. It will be making headlines for sure before, during and after.
But we have a mission there in order to really accommodate what happened. So this is another good example where AI is needed in order to act and work in space. And there are plenty more examples, of course, analyzing images like the ones Rafal was talking about automatically.
When you get all these data volumes down to detect automatically something that interests you, changes on the surface and so on. So, yes, sir, we are. This is our job working on the frontiers of science and technology.
Let’s plan our trip to Hawaii, darling, before just in just in case. So, Rafal. So, yeah.
Now, having a constellation like we know from from from the SpaceX solution, having a constellation probably increases the resilience of of the system, I suppose. But at the same time, having a constellation increases dramatically the numbers of assets that we’re throwing that we’re launching into space, increases the probability of assets running into each other, producing debris.
We still don’t have. and Kevin, European Space Agency trash truck flying and collecting. So are you, I mean, in a way your solution makes your system safer, but makes the overall resilience of the overall system a little harder.
Any thoughts about that conundrum?
Look, I think this is one of those challenges which sort of reflects on the fact that very often technology develops much faster than our international laws and regulations that are supposed to govern it, right?
This is true for AI, as obviously we’re all aware, and it’s true for drones, but I think exactly why we are speaking about space over here is we’re kind of a little bit more aware of the AI and drones, and I think we are significantly less aware of the space-based challenges.
Now we are probably treating this quite seriously. There is a reason why our constellation performs much better if each satellite has maneuvering capability. And the fact that they do have a maneuvering capability means that they ultimately are able to execute on something which would be called a avoidance maneuver.
So you actually move away from the route of a different satellite. We do that, SpaceX does that too, and we do it honestly more and more frequently, right? Like I think right now it’s with Constellation that we are operating, there’s about 40 satellites.
We do it so often that we don’t do it manually anymore. There is an algorithm that detects a potential collision. It sort of tries to identify whether it should move.
And the satellite ducks, that’s correct. Now so far it’s worked well, but…
But everyone is not a good actor like that.
That’s correct.
And that’s the problem.
Because the truth is that, I mean, look, it actually takes a lot of effort. It takes certain… and many others.
So, I’m going to start with you. I know everybody is not a good actor because they don’t want to. The ability to launch stuff into space today, it’s actually relatively easy, right?
People often ask me, oh my God, I mean, building satellite, that’s not an issue. How do you launch it? And the funny thing is that today, launching stuff into space is a commoditized market, right?
There is actually rockets provided by a variety of different partners. People believe that SpaceX is the only rocket factory out there. That’s actually not true.
They are launching the most often, but there is Ariane, there is Japanese rockets, there is Indian rockets, there is rockets built in New Zealand. So there’s a lot of variety of access. And the regulations aren’t very strict.
You can actually launch stuff into space with ease, right? I mean, Elon himself launched a Tesla, which I don’t believe is executing on any avoidance maneuvers over there. It looks cool.
And look, and it is a problem that we actually will have to address as a community, right? So there is a situation over here, which is very true. I mean, if you think of the whole spectrum of technologies that are going to even be enabled, we have all these technologies that are observing the Earth, and we have all these technologies that are providing us on Earth with capabilities, things like communication or of observation.
But there is going to be a whole new host of capabilities that we will have to develop in order to maintain the infrastructure in space that actually provides us with those capabilities, right? Whether that’s space situational awareness, which is still in a little bit early stages, or whether that’s an active way of removing those capabilities, which for whatever reason or not cannot be removed.
Thank you. Thank you. I’m going to open it up for questions.
If you do have a question, I ask that you stand up, please, and identify yourself. And we can, please, the back of the room.
Hi. My name is Tris Jahanian. I am from Carnegie Mellon University.
Hi, Beth. Hi. And I have a question.
My career was in computer systems for financial institutions, specifically networking. And so I am very versed in distributed processing. I guess mostly this question is for you, Mr.
Lee, but I bet you I’ve got a part that’s about government, too. So in my career, we had quite a good distributed system. And then as things got commoditized and there was competition, we went from four to three to two data centers.
And then things like, well, the capacity of the… of the second data center didn’t have to be as much as the first, and then we had a couple of disasters and found out what disaster that was. So my question for you is, would AI help build trust among CEOs and those people who have essential services as their business?
If it were described to them what was necessary for distributed processing or fault tolerance, would that help CEOs put more money toward that problem? And also, for governments, is there a role in regulation? If you’re in an industry where the community requires this service, can it be regulated that you do put a certain percentage of your business into the fault tolerance of your business?
All right.
Yeah, perfect. So I think it’s a very good idea to have like the governmental discussion as it relates to resilience. If we’re going to end up having services that we all depend on, then it’s a public good in some manner, even if it’s an investor-owned company or so forth.
And so I don’t think, as an example to your question, let’s say there’s a chemical manufacturing plant trying to help out with space-based systems and they’re producing chemicals, and they know there’s a realistic scenario that a cyber attack could cause an issue with the safety equipment, releasing those chemicals and killing people at the plant.
Inside the plant, there still needs to be certain regulations, but let’s say in that scenario, it can get outside the plant and then go into the local town or community. The CEO and board understands that risk and then decides to accept the risk and not do anything about it. Should that really be that company’s choice?
I would argue no. You can make all the risk decisions you want about your company, but the moment it goes outside your fence line and kills my kids, I don’t think that you’re authorized to have that risk choice. Now, what are the realistic scenarios and how to do that and what is the actual manners?
It’s a very complicated question and answer, so I don’t want to skirt over it, but it’s not being had very often. Now, in the AI discussion for… and I think there’s a lot of cool things that we’ll find.
I don’t think it’s trust so much that the CEOs are not putting into the financial outcomes for the company. I don’t think it’s a lack of trust in cybersecurity. I don’t think it’s a lack of trust in any given answer.
I think it’s simply the motivations of the company, the regulatory environment that they live in. It’s not just like the power company, as an example, doesn’t do something because they don’t want to. It’s usually a public utility commission or someone local that’s not allowing them to do those things.
Let’s use the water example. If a water company wanted to actually go and put cybersecurity into their systems on the operations side, they’d almost have to hold like a town vote. Now you’ve got to convince the community that, oh, there’s foreign state actors and they can hurt us with targeting the drinking water.
I don’t think that’s going to go very well in most local communities around the world. I would argue that the most important thing is alignment between the private sector and the government with a very clear understanding of what the scenarios are they’re going to deal with and a very clear understanding that enterprise IT security is very different than operations technology security.
Let’s get to the things that have actually demonstrated success and less to the research and projects and things like that. Those are great. They have a role and responsibility, but if we know something that works now, let’s just do that now.
Jessica, do you want to add to that?
I don’t think it’s enough for individual governments to manage this risk because we’re dealing with facilities that depend on shared spaces, upper atmosphere, the ocean, and we’re going to have to globally wrap our arms around the fact that we could have 100,000 satellites in space, several hundred more submarine cables in the next decade.
And the vulnerabilities are all shared, but our regulatory frameworks around the world are pretty old. They’re pretty dated. They largely rely on things like the Outer Space Treaty from the end of the 1950s.
And we’re going to have to figure out how to make sure that there’s enough orbital space for all different countries around the world, all different satellite systems, that satellites are maneuverable, and that when they lose pieces of junk that, you know, stay up there, we’re going to have to build robotic systems to start taking them down.
This is a profound level of international cooperation to manage these risks. And we’re just in early days, but it’s really clear to me we’ve got to work on it.
Very interesting. We have another question here. I don’t know if we have time for all of them, but if you can keep your question short.
I’m the vice minister of high-tech industry from Armenia, working in orbital operation arm in the space program and also cyber security. Two questions. Okay, one question.
So talking about cyber security, we just adopted cyber security law, thinking how to create a security environment. So what’s your vision? What do you think?
Because I like how you said, we are in a shared space, but there is no shared responsibility that much, to be honest. Everybody’s doing it, they’re quite fragile. So how do you think we need to cooperate in a global level, in a local level, let’s say glocally, to come to that level from the private perspective?
As you said, you a little bit touched that point, but how you would do it if you do it that way?
So don’t just talk about the problem and have the answer, yeah, that’s a fair thing. I think it’s going to require all of it, right? You’re going to have local sites that have local security regulations and so forth, and you’re going to have international cooperation that’s required.
But state it simply, when you have a global company that ends up operating in all these different areas, and you end up having all these different regulatory regimes over top of them, it becomes extraordinarily cost prohibitive to do anything.
And then you don’t get to an outcome, and it’s very expensive. So honestly, there’s a real need for global cooperation on certain cybersecurity standards and efforts and just responsibility in terms of being a global company. And then it’s also okay to then have more prescriptive local discussions if it’s more interesting to your country for one topic over another.
But either way, I’m not this huge fan of let’s regulate everything, so just to go on the record with that. But I do think at the very end of the discussion, we’re going to find that our role and responsibility of government does have regulations and compliance and laws for these companies, and we just need to get aligned on what those are.
Terrific. One last question. I’m sorry, because I want to give you a chance to have a closing comment.
Thank you. Roman Larkin, the Chief Executive Officer of Aldoria. I love the way you put it, Jessica, the space and deep sea infrastructure is fundamental and fundamentally vulnerable.
We’ve heard about some very interesting use cases from Rafael in particular. I love the example with the German army being protected by your civilian service. Then obviously, you become a target, right?
If the German army is going to be subject to an attack on that part of the Eastern Front, they’re going to aim at your satellites as well, if not first, as we’ve seen in Ukraine at the beginning of the war in Ukraine with part of the…
So what is the question? So how do you protect yourself, not only you? or how do we collect, how do we protect the space infrastructure from not only debris, because you provided part of the answer I guess, but also from hostile attacks.
So this is not a question only for ISAI but also for your customers and for all the institutions that you collaborate with, including Josef I guess.
Look, I think this is another one of those more challenging ones, and I’m looking at the clock having four minutes, I’m not sure whether I will be able to solve the problem right now, but I will, but Josef will.
So how about we turn that into your closing comment, which is what is the message that you wish people who are following your line or here that they take home in terms of what the stakes are?
Okay, being very short, time is ticking. You need space traffic management and really understanding what happens where, with very high accuracy and very high confidence. Of course, and here I think you’re absolutely right, we need a policy at global level in order to manage it.
It’s not possible that just everyone is, I would say, using space, I would say relatively uncontrolled or unregulated, not a big friend of huge regulations, but there needs to be some regulation as you have in air traffic.
So I think this needs to work together. And in some extreme cases, Jessica said it, you need to take debris out of orbit. We are also working on that, on these technologies to really literally grab a spacecraft, take it out if it is a very, I would say, important one or a dangerous one in order to really work together.
So it’s a lot of things that need to be done together, but we are working on this. But I really would like to say we are on day one at the very beginning of this, a lot more needs to be done.
All right, Jessica, you’re closing.
All right, we’ve been talking a lot about the risks associated with these technologies. I just want to have a boost of optimism. Please.
It’s amazing. We have Earth imaging capabilities in real time that can help with emergency response, monitoring climate. Higgins, and John Chapman.
We have to be able to understand what’s going on in the world around us like never before in human history. And on top of that, there are more than 2 billion people on this planet who don’t have internet access. And it is cost prohibitive right now to supply it on a terrestrial level.
We can do it from our skies. So there are opportunities with these technologies that are phenomenal and that’s why it’s worth working through all these risks.
And I think that’s a big cry to all the aerospace engineering students at places like Georgia Tech. We’re really looking up to you and what’s possible. Go ahead.
Excellent. Look, I will maybe just quickly addressing the question, I’ll say I think that the first thing we have to do, and this is actually not true for most of the countries, you have to realize that that infrastructure in space is actually critical infrastructure.
Because once you legally define it as a critical infrastructure, then you even start having a legal regime that allows you to act in case somebody is about to destroy it, right? But in my closing comment, look, I think as it has been mentioned, the capabilities that the technologies offer today are amazing. And I think, you know, we’ve been at it for 10 years, and every single day it feels like we’re just at the beginning of a major revolution.
We’re scratching the surface. Barely. Day one, as Josef was saying, we know that we have to be amazing, but there are still 2 billion people without Internet, right?
And that’s just the most obvious capability. So to all students out there, look, I can tell you for a fact, you can start a space company from a university with two people and be successful. It doesn’t have to take an army of people anymore.
So go and do it, solve the problems that are out there, and let’s make this world a better place. Awesome. Peter, closing.
Now that I’ve already said it, I’m going to say it again. So go and do it, solve the problems that are out there, and let’s make this world a better place.
Awesome. Peter, closing.
Now that everyone’s being inspiring, then it comes back to these hacks. Be afraid. Look, defense is doable.
We know how to do it. We can get together and actually accomplish this, but let’s also be aware of the facts. Somewhere around 90% of all of the guidance ever given to any of our infrastructure owners and operators has been about trying to prevent things from happening in their systems.
Sub 10% of any of the systems around the world, could we even detect that something was a cyber attack or that we have visibility into those systems and networks. And the reality is I’ve been involved in many cases where people were hurt or explosions or impacts and they didn’t think cyber was involved and it was. We can change that and as we start learning what the threats are actually doing and getting better visibility into them, we can take that expertise with a lot of innovative and wonderful folks and we can change the discussion.
Perfect. Well, thank you. Please join me in thanking our amazing and fun panel.
Thank you for joining us and thank you to everybody following online. Thank you all and enjoy Davos.
Jessica Rosenworcel
Speech speed
160 words per minute
Speech length
543 words
Speech time
202 seconds
Modern life depends on 12,000 satellites and 600 submarine cables for GPS, financial transactions, communications, and data traffic
Explanation
Rosenworcel emphasizes that there are approximately 12,000 active satellites and 600 submarine cables that handle 99% of the world’s international data traffic. These systems are fundamental to modern life, supporting global positioning systems used by vehicles, militaries, financial transactions, earth monitoring, and weather systems.
Evidence
99% of the world’s international data traffic goes through submarine cables; satellites support GPS for vehicles, militaries, financial transactions, earth monitoring, and weather systems
Major discussion point
Critical Infrastructure Dependency and Vulnerability
Topics
Infrastructure | Cybersecurity
Agreed with
– Josef Aschbacher
– Rafal Modrzewski
Agreed on
Critical infrastructure dependency on space and submarine cable systems
Both satellite and submarine cable infrastructure are extraordinarily vulnerable to various threats including space weather, jamming, debris, and malicious attacks
Explanation
Rosenworcel argues that despite being invisible to most people, these critical systems face numerous vulnerabilities. Satellites can be affected by space weather, intentional jamming, orbital debris, and anti-satellite weapons, while submarine cables can be damaged by marine life or deliberately cut by malicious actors.
Evidence
Satellites vulnerable to space weather, intentional jamming, orbital debris, anti-satellite missile technology; submarine cables can be damaged by aquatic life or malicious actors cutting them, as seen in the Red Sea
Major discussion point
Critical Infrastructure Dependency and Vulnerability
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure
Agreed with
– Josef Aschbacher
– Robert M. Lee
Agreed on
Extraordinary vulnerability of critical space and submarine infrastructure
Current regulatory frameworks are outdated, relying on treaties from the 1950s for managing modern space infrastructure
Explanation
Rosenworcel contends that existing international regulations are inadequate for managing the rapid expansion of space infrastructure. The regulatory frameworks largely depend on old agreements like the Outer Space Treaty from the late 1950s, which cannot adequately address current challenges with potentially 100,000 satellites and hundreds more submarine cables expected in the next decade.
Evidence
Regulatory frameworks rely on the Outer Space Treaty from the end of the 1950s; projection of 100,000 satellites and several hundred more submarine cables in the next decade
Major discussion point
Government and International Cooperation Needs
Topics
Legal and regulatory | Infrastructure
Global cooperation is essential because vulnerabilities in shared spaces affect all nations, but regulatory frameworks remain fragmented
Explanation
Rosenworcel argues that individual governments cannot manage these risks alone because the infrastructure operates in shared spaces like the upper atmosphere and oceans. She emphasizes the need for profound international cooperation to manage orbital space allocation, satellite maneuverability requirements, and debris removal systems.
Evidence
Facilities depend on shared spaces (upper atmosphere, ocean); need for international cooperation on orbital space allocation, maneuverable satellites, and robotic debris removal systems
Major discussion point
Government and International Cooperation Needs
Topics
Legal and regulatory | Infrastructure
Agreed with
– Josef Aschbacher
– Robert M. Lee
Agreed on
Need for global cooperation and updated regulatory frameworks
Space technology can provide internet access to 2 billion people currently without connectivity at lower costs than terrestrial solutions
Explanation
Rosenworcel highlights the positive potential of space technology, noting that more than 2 billion people lack internet access and that satellite-based solutions could be more cost-effective than building terrestrial infrastructure. This represents a significant opportunity for global connectivity and development.
Evidence
More than 2 billion people don’t have internet access; cost prohibitive to supply terrestrial internet to these populations
Major discussion point
Future Opportunities and Innovation Potential
Topics
Development | Infrastructure
Real-time Earth imaging capabilities offer unprecedented opportunities for emergency response and climate monitoring
Explanation
Rosenworcel emphasizes the transformative potential of current Earth imaging technologies that provide real-time monitoring capabilities. These systems offer humanity an unprecedented ability to understand and respond to events on Earth, supporting both emergency response efforts and climate change monitoring initiatives.
Evidence
Earth imaging capabilities in real time can help with emergency response, monitoring climate
Major discussion point
Future Opportunities and Innovation Potential
Topics
Infrastructure | Development
Josef Aschbacher
Speech speed
221 words per minute
Speech length
1500 words
Speech time
406 seconds
Space infrastructure serves 11 out of 16 critical sectors of society, including banking, stock trading, and navigation systems
Explanation
Aschbacher explains that space-based systems are integral to most critical sectors of society, with 11 out of 16 sectors identified by OECD studies being dependent on space infrastructure. He emphasizes that space serves domains beyond just space applications, including precise timing for financial transactions and stock trading that would be impossible without satellite systems.
Evidence
OECD studies identify 16 critical sectors, 11 need space infrastructure; bank transfers and stock trading require precise timing from GPS systems; ATM transactions and navigation depend on satellites
Major discussion point
Critical Infrastructure Dependency and Vulnerability
Topics
Infrastructure | Economic
Agreed with
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Rafal Modrzewski
Agreed on
Critical infrastructure dependency on space and submarine cable systems
Satellite numbers are projected to grow from 12,000 to potentially 100,000 by the end of the decade, creating significant debris risks
Explanation
Aschbacher warns about the exponential growth in satellite numbers, with predictions suggesting the current 12,000 satellites could increase to tens of thousands or close to 100,000 within a few years. This dramatic increase poses significant challenges for space traffic management and debris mitigation.
Evidence
Current 12,000 satellites increasing daily; predictions of tens of thousands to close to 100,000 by end of decade
Major discussion point
Space Debris and Traffic Management Challenges
Topics
Infrastructure | Legal and regulatory
Agreed with
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Robert M. Lee
Agreed on
Extraordinary vulnerability of critical space and submarine infrastructure
The Zero Debris initiative requires satellite operators to remove satellites from orbit at end of life to prevent collisions and explosions
Explanation
Aschbacher describes ESA’s Zero Debris initiative as a critical measure to prevent space debris accumulation. The initiative has over 180 signatories who commit to removing their satellites from orbit at end of life, preventing dead satellites from becoming hazardous debris that could collide with other objects or explode due to temperature changes.
Evidence
Zero Debris Charter has more than 180 signatures; dead satellites can collide with others or explode due to temperature changes between night and day sides; fuel tanks exposed to high temperature changes
Major discussion point
Space Debris and Traffic Management Challenges
Topics
Infrastructure | Legal and regulatory
AI integration in satellites enables automatic detection of forest fires, cloud coverage, and troop movements, reducing data transmission and improving response times
Explanation
Aschbacher explains how ESA pioneered the use of AI chips in satellites, starting with a 70-euro Amazon-purchased chip that could distinguish cloud-covered from cloud-free areas. This technology has evolved to enable automatic detection of forest fires and military movements, sending immediate alerts without waiting for human discovery and reducing unnecessary data transmission.
Evidence
ESA first to use AI chip bought on Amazon for 70 euros; AI trained to distinguish cloud-covered from cloud-free areas; current AI chips detect forest fires automatically and send alarms; same technology can detect troops or movements
Major discussion point
Space Technology Revolution and New Capabilities
Topics
Infrastructure | Cybersecurity
Agreed with
– Brian Wright
– Rafal Modrzewski
Agreed on
Rapid technological transformation and democratization of space technology
Disagreed with
– Robert M. Lee
Disagreed on
Priority focus for cybersecurity improvements
Space traffic management and global regulations are needed similar to air traffic control systems
Explanation
Aschbacher advocates for implementing space traffic management systems with high accuracy and confidence, similar to existing air traffic control. He argues that while not favoring extensive regulations, some level of global regulation is necessary to prevent uncontrolled use of space, and in extreme cases, active debris removal technologies are needed.
Evidence
Comparison to air traffic management systems; need for high accuracy and confidence in space traffic management; ESA working on technologies to grab and remove dangerous spacecraft
Major discussion point
Space Debris and Traffic Management Challenges
Topics
Legal and regulatory | Infrastructure
Agreed with
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Robert M. Lee
Agreed on
Need for global cooperation and updated regulatory frameworks
Disagreed with
– Robert M. Lee
Disagreed on
Role and extent of government regulation in cybersecurity and space infrastructure
Advanced missions using AI for autonomous asteroid exploration demonstrate the frontier possibilities of space technology
Explanation
Aschbacher describes ESA’s Hera mission to study asteroids hit by NASA’s DART mission, which requires autonomous AI operation due to 20-minute communication delays. The mission must use AI to navigate around complex asteroid environments and debris fields, demonstrating cutting-edge applications of artificial intelligence in space exploration.
Evidence
Hera mission flying to asteroid hit by NASA DART mission; 20-minute communication delay requires autonomous AI operation; satellite has imaging sensors to detect and navigate around asteroid debris
Major discussion point
Future Opportunities and Innovation Potential
Topics
Infrastructure | Development
Rafal Modrzewski
Speech speed
183 words per minute
Speech length
2109 words
Speech time
690 seconds
Small satellite technology has transformed from student projects to billion-dollar military contracts, with ICEYE securing a 1.4 billion euro German defense contract
Explanation
Modrzewski illustrates the dramatic transformation in space technology accessibility by contrasting his company’s origins as a student project building milk carton-sized satellites with their recent major military contract. This represents the largest contract for new space companies and demonstrates how small teams can now achieve capabilities previously requiring massive organizations.
Evidence
Started as 15 students aged 22-23 building 3-kilogram satellite; December 2024 secured 1.4 billion euro German Bundeswehr contract for 40-satellite constellation; largest new space company contract and largest single Earth observation contract
Major discussion point
Space Technology Revolution and New Capabilities
Topics
Infrastructure | Economic
Agreed with
– Brian Wright
– Josef Aschbacher
Agreed on
Rapid technological transformation and democratization of space technology
Satellite constellations can provide real-time monitoring every 30 minutes regardless of weather conditions, revolutionizing military surveillance and civilian applications
Explanation
Modrzewski explains how large satellite constellations using radar imaging can monitor specific areas every 30 minutes regardless of weather or time of day. This capability allows military forces to detect troop movements and potential threats in real-time, representing a significant advancement in surveillance and security capabilities.
Evidence
German Panzer Brigade in Lithuania can be monitored every 30 minutes; radar imaging works regardless of weather conditions or time of day; can detect movement of foreign adversarial troops
Major discussion point
Space Technology Revolution and New Capabilities
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure
Agreed with
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Josef Aschbacher
Agreed on
Critical infrastructure dependency on space and submarine cable systems
Space technology offers solutions for insurance claims, disaster response, and climate monitoring with unprecedented frequency and resolution
Explanation
Modrzewski describes practical applications including automatic insurance claim processing for flood-damaged vehicles in Japan and real-time fire monitoring in Los Angeles. The technology can measure water depth within 24 hours of flooding and determine which houses burned in fires, enabling more efficient resource deployment and faster insurance processing.
Evidence
Japan car insurance automatically processes flood claims by measuring water depth within 24 hours; Los Angeles fire monitoring shows which specific houses burned; 15-centimeter resolution imaging every 20-30 minutes
Major discussion point
Space Technology Revolution and New Capabilities
Topics
Economic | Infrastructure
Modern satellites use automated collision avoidance systems, but not all space actors are responsible participants
Explanation
Modrzewski explains that responsible satellite operators like ICEYE have implemented automated collision avoidance systems that can detect potential collisions and execute avoidance maneuvers without manual intervention. However, he acknowledges that not all space actors follow these responsible practices, creating ongoing risks in the increasingly crowded space environment.
Evidence
ICEYE’s 40-satellite constellation performs avoidance maneuvers so frequently they use algorithms instead of manual control; satellites can ‘duck’ to avoid collisions; launching to space is now commoditized with multiple rocket providers
Major discussion point
Space Debris and Traffic Management Challenges
Topics
Infrastructure | Legal and regulatory
Small teams can now start successful space companies from universities, making space technology more accessible
Explanation
Modrzewski encourages students by demonstrating that space technology is now accessible to small teams, citing his own experience of starting a successful space company with just two people from university. He emphasizes that the barriers to entry have significantly decreased, making it possible for students to solve real-world problems through space technology entrepreneurship.
Evidence
Started ICEYE with two people from university; achieved success over 10 years; launching to space is now commoditized with rockets from multiple countries including Ariane, Japanese, Indian, and New Zealand providers
Major discussion point
Future Opportunities and Innovation Potential
Topics
Development | Economic
Robert M. Lee
Speech speed
225 words per minute
Speech length
2036 words
Speech time
542 seconds
Companies typically spend less than 5% of their budget on operational technology security despite generating all revenue from that side
Explanation
Lee argues that while companies invest heavily in enterprise IT security, they severely under-invest in protecting their operational technology systems that actually generate revenue. This creates a dangerous gap where the most critical systems for business operations remain vulnerable to cyber attacks.
Evidence
Companies spend less than 5% of budget on operational technology security; operational side generates all revenue; executives get briefings showing green KPIs for enterprise IT but not operational systems
Major discussion point
Critical Infrastructure Dependency and Vulnerability
Topics
Cybersecurity | Economic
Cyber attacks against critical infrastructure like power grids are already occurring regularly, with explicit attempts to target human life
Explanation
Lee warns that cyber attacks on critical infrastructure are not future threats but current realities, citing attacks on the Polish grid and cases where state actors explicitly tried to kill people. He emphasizes that these attacks are ongoing and often unreported in media, with some specifically designed to cause physical harm and loss of life.
Evidence
Cyber attack against Polish grid in December; state actor case where someone tried to kill people at a plant; attacks that could release chemicals and kill people both inside and outside plant facilities
Major discussion point
Cybersecurity Threats to Physical Infrastructure
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure
Agreed with
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Josef Aschbacher
Agreed on
Extraordinary vulnerability of critical space and submarine infrastructure
Most cybersecurity focus has been on enterprise IT rather than operational technology that controls physical systems
Explanation
Lee explains that the cybersecurity community has primarily focused on enterprise IT systems like help desks and IT infrastructure, while neglecting operational technology that controls physical systems. This creates a knowledge gap where cybersecurity professionals lack understanding of plant operations, substations, and other critical physical infrastructure.
Evidence
Cybersecurity community built up on enterprise IT; professionals come from help desk and IT infrastructure support; many have never spent time at plants or substations
Major discussion point
Cybersecurity Threats to Physical Infrastructure
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure
Companies often believe they are protected based on enterprise IT security while remaining vulnerable on the operational side
Explanation
Lee describes how executives receive reassuring briefings with green indicators about their cybersecurity posture, but these briefings only cover enterprise IT systems. The operational side of the business, which generates revenue and controls physical processes, remains unprotected, leading to a false sense of security among leadership.
Evidence
Executive briefings show green KPIs for enterprise IT side; CEOs think they’ve invested in cybersecurity but only on enterprise IT side; operational side that generates revenue remains unprotected
Major discussion point
Cybersecurity Threats to Physical Infrastructure
Topics
Cybersecurity | Economic
Basic security measures like firewalls are still missing from many critical infrastructure systems
Explanation
Lee emphasizes that the cybersecurity challenges in critical infrastructure are often not about advanced technologies like quantum encryption or AI, but about implementing basic security measures. He points out that most of the 55,000 water systems in the United States lack even basic firewalls, highlighting the need to focus on fundamental security before pursuing advanced solutions.
Evidence
55,000 water systems in the United States, most don’t have firewalls; Congressional testimony about water sector security; emphasis on doing basics before quantum encryption and AI
Major discussion point
Cybersecurity Threats to Physical Infrastructure
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure
Disagreed with
– Josef Aschbacher
Disagreed on
Priority focus for cybersecurity improvements
Economic regulators often don’t align with national security policies, preventing companies from investing in necessary security measures
Explanation
Lee identifies a critical misalignment between government security requirements and economic regulation. While governments may mandate cybersecurity improvements through national security policies, economic regulators often refuse to approve the costs, leaving companies unable to implement necessary security measures even when they understand the risks.
Evidence
Australian SOCI regulation requires cybersecurity improvements but economic regulators won’t pay for it; Spanish and Portuguese power companies understand risks but lack resources; CEO of ADP is well-informed but constrained by economic regulation
Major discussion point
Government and International Cooperation Needs
Topics
Legal and regulatory | Economic
Disagreed with
– Josef Aschbacher
Disagreed on
Role and extent of government regulation in cybersecurity and space infrastructure
International standards and cooperation are needed to manage global companies operating across multiple regulatory regimes
Explanation
Lee argues that the current fragmented regulatory environment creates cost-prohibitive compliance burdens for global companies operating across different jurisdictions. He advocates for global cooperation on cybersecurity standards while allowing for local customization, emphasizing that the current system prevents effective security outcomes due to complexity and cost.
Evidence
Global companies face multiple different regulatory regimes; becomes extraordinarily cost prohibitive; need for global cooperation on cybersecurity standards with local customization options
Major discussion point
Government and International Cooperation Needs
Topics
Legal and regulatory | Cybersecurity
Agreed with
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Josef Aschbacher
Agreed on
Need for global cooperation and updated regulatory frameworks
Brian Wright
Speech speed
134 words per minute
Speech length
1002 words
Speech time
446 seconds
The cost of building and launching satellites has declined exponentially, making space technology accessible to students
Explanation
Wright highlights how dramatically the barriers to entry for space technology have decreased. He notes that the cost reduction has been so significant that even college students can now create CubeSats and have them launched into space.
Evidence
Virtually a student in college can create a CubeSat and have it launched
Major discussion point
Space Technology Revolution and New Capabilities
Topics
Infrastructure | Economic
Agreed with
– Rafal Modrzewski
– Josef Aschbacher
Agreed on
Rapid technological transformation and democratization of space technology
The most interesting cybersecurity challenges occur at the intersection of software and physical systems
Explanation
Wright emphasizes that modern cybersecurity challenges are not purely software-based but involve complex interactions between digital systems and physical infrastructure. This perspective highlights the growing importance of protecting operational technology alongside traditional IT systems.
Evidence
Some of the most interesting and complex challenges are not just software challenges, but at the intersection between software and physical systems
Major discussion point
Cybersecurity Threats to Physical Infrastructure
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure
Satellite constellations increase system resilience but also create more debris risks and collision probabilities
Explanation
Wright identifies a fundamental conundrum in space technology where having multiple satellites in a constellation makes the overall system more resilient to individual failures, but simultaneously increases the total number of objects in space. This creates higher risks of collisions and debris generation, even while making individual systems safer.
Evidence
Having a constellation probably increases the resilience of the system, but at the same time increases dramatically the numbers of assets that we’re launching into space, increases the probability of assets running into each other, producing debris
Major discussion point
Space Debris and Traffic Management Challenges
Topics
Infrastructure | Legal and regulatory
Audience
Speech speed
160 words per minute
Speech length
535 words
Speech time
200 seconds
AI could help build trust among CEOs by explaining the necessity of distributed processing and fault tolerance for essential services
Explanation
An audience member from Carnegie Mellon University suggests that artificial intelligence could be used as a tool to help business leaders understand the technical requirements for resilient systems. The question stems from experience in financial systems where cost-cutting led to reduced redundancy and eventual disasters.
Evidence
Experience with financial institutions going from four to three to two data centers, with capacity reductions leading to disasters when systems failed
Major discussion point
Cybersecurity Threats to Physical Infrastructure
Topics
Cybersecurity | Economic
Regulation may be necessary to require companies in essential service industries to invest a certain percentage in fault tolerance
Explanation
The audience member questions whether government regulation should mandate that companies providing essential services allocate specific budget percentages to system resilience and fault tolerance. This addresses the gap between private company profit motives and public infrastructure needs.
Evidence
Question about whether industries where the community requires the service can be regulated to put a certain percentage of business into fault tolerance
Major discussion point
Government and International Cooperation Needs
Topics
Legal and regulatory | Economic
Space infrastructure becomes a military target when it supports defense operations, requiring protection strategies
Explanation
An audience member points out that civilian satellite services become legitimate military targets when they provide critical support to armed forces, as demonstrated in the Ukraine conflict. This dual-use nature of space infrastructure creates new vulnerabilities that need to be addressed through protective measures.
Evidence
German army being protected by civilian satellite service makes the satellites targets; reference to attacks on space infrastructure at the beginning of the war in Ukraine
Major discussion point
Cybersecurity Threats to Physical Infrastructure
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure
Countries need to legally define space infrastructure as critical infrastructure to enable protective legal frameworks
Explanation
An audience member from Armenia’s high-tech ministry emphasizes that space infrastructure must be formally classified as critical infrastructure in national legal frameworks. This legal designation is necessary to establish the regulatory authority and legal mechanisms needed to protect these systems from threats.
Evidence
Need to realize that infrastructure in space is actually critical infrastructure; legal definition allows for legal regime to act when somebody is about to destroy it
Major discussion point
Government and International Cooperation Needs
Topics
Legal and regulatory | Infrastructure
Agreements
Agreement points
Critical infrastructure dependency on space and submarine cable systems
Speakers
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Josef Aschbacher
– Rafal Modrzewski
Arguments
Modern life depends on 12,000 satellites and 600 submarine cables for GPS, financial transactions, communications, and data traffic
Space infrastructure serves 11 out of 16 critical sectors of society, including banking, stock trading, and navigation systems
Satellite constellations can provide real-time monitoring every 30 minutes regardless of weather conditions, revolutionizing military surveillance and civilian applications
Summary
All speakers agree that modern society is fundamentally dependent on space-based and submarine cable infrastructure, with these systems supporting everything from financial transactions to military operations and civilian communications.
Topics
Infrastructure | Economic | Cybersecurity
Extraordinary vulnerability of critical space and submarine infrastructure
Speakers
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Josef Aschbacher
– Robert M. Lee
Arguments
Both satellite and submarine cable infrastructure are extraordinarily vulnerable to various threats including space weather, jamming, debris, and malicious attacks
Satellite numbers are projected to grow from 12,000 to potentially 100,000 by the end of the decade, creating significant debris risks
Cyber attacks against critical infrastructure like power grids are already occurring regularly, with explicit attempts to target human life
Summary
There is strong consensus that critical infrastructure systems are highly vulnerable to multiple types of threats, from natural phenomena to deliberate attacks, and these vulnerabilities are increasing as systems become more complex and numerous.
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure
Need for global cooperation and updated regulatory frameworks
Speakers
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Josef Aschbacher
– Robert M. Lee
Arguments
Global cooperation is essential because vulnerabilities in shared spaces affect all nations, but regulatory frameworks remain fragmented
Space traffic management and global regulations are needed similar to air traffic control systems
International standards and cooperation are needed to manage global companies operating across multiple regulatory regimes
Summary
All speakers agree that current regulatory frameworks are inadequate for managing modern infrastructure challenges and that international cooperation is essential for effective governance of shared spaces and global systems.
Topics
Legal and regulatory | Infrastructure
Rapid technological transformation and democratization of space technology
Speakers
– Brian Wright
– Rafal Modrzewski
– Josef Aschbacher
Arguments
The cost of building and launching satellites has declined exponentially, making space technology accessible to students
Small satellite technology has transformed from student projects to billion-dollar military contracts, with ICEYE securing a 1.4 billion euro German defense contract
AI integration in satellites enables automatic detection of forest fires, cloud coverage, and troop movements, reducing data transmission and improving response times
Summary
There is consensus that space technology has undergone dramatic democratization, with barriers to entry dropping significantly and small teams now capable of achieving capabilities previously requiring massive organizations.
Topics
Infrastructure | Economic | Development
Similar viewpoints
Both speakers emphasize the importance of implementing basic protective measures before pursuing advanced solutions, whether in cybersecurity or space debris management.
Speakers
– Robert M. Lee
– Josef Aschbacher
Arguments
Basic security measures like firewalls are still missing from many critical infrastructure systems
The Zero Debris initiative requires satellite operators to remove satellites from orbit at end of life to prevent collisions and explosions
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure | Legal and regulatory
Both speakers highlight the transformative potential of space technology for addressing global challenges and improving quality of life, particularly for underserved populations.
Speakers
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Rafal Modrzewski
Arguments
Space technology can provide internet access to 2 billion people currently without connectivity at lower costs than terrestrial solutions
Space technology offers solutions for insurance claims, disaster response, and climate monitoring with unprecedented frequency and resolution
Topics
Development | Infrastructure | Economic
Both speakers recognize that the most critical cybersecurity challenges involve the intersection of digital and physical systems, not just traditional IT security.
Speakers
– Robert M. Lee
– Brian Wright
Arguments
Most cybersecurity focus has been on enterprise IT rather than operational technology that controls physical systems
The most interesting cybersecurity challenges occur at the intersection of software and physical systems
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure
Unexpected consensus
Optimism about technological potential despite security concerns
Speakers
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Rafal Modrzewski
– Josef Aschbacher
Arguments
Real-time Earth imaging capabilities offer unprecedented opportunities for emergency response and climate monitoring
Small teams can now start successful space companies from universities, making space technology more accessible
Advanced missions using AI for autonomous asteroid exploration demonstrate the frontier possibilities of space technology
Explanation
Despite extensive discussion of vulnerabilities and threats, all speakers maintained strong optimism about the transformative potential of space technology, viewing current challenges as manageable obstacles rather than insurmountable barriers.
Topics
Development | Infrastructure | Economic
Agreement on need for regulation from diverse stakeholder perspectives
Speakers
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Josef Aschbacher
– Robert M. Lee
– Audience
Arguments
Current regulatory frameworks are outdated, relying on treaties from the 1950s for managing modern space infrastructure
Space traffic management and global regulations are needed similar to air traffic control systems
Economic regulators often don’t align with national security policies, preventing companies from investing in necessary security measures
Countries need to legally define space infrastructure as critical infrastructure to enable protective legal frameworks
Explanation
Unexpectedly, speakers from different backgrounds (government regulator, space agency director, cybersecurity entrepreneur, and international audience) all agreed on the need for stronger regulatory frameworks, despite typically different perspectives on government intervention.
Topics
Legal and regulatory | Infrastructure | Cybersecurity
Overall assessment
Summary
The speakers demonstrated remarkable consensus on the fundamental challenges facing critical infrastructure, the urgent need for international cooperation, and the transformative potential of emerging technologies. Key areas of agreement included the critical dependency of modern society on space and submarine infrastructure, the extraordinary vulnerability of these systems, the need for updated global regulatory frameworks, and the rapid democratization of space technology.
Consensus level
High level of consensus with significant implications for policy and industry action. The agreement across diverse stakeholders (government officials, industry leaders, academics, and international representatives) suggests a mature understanding of the challenges and a foundation for coordinated action. The consensus indicates that the infrastructure protection challenges are well-understood and that solutions require coordinated international effort rather than individual national or corporate responses. This level of agreement suggests potential for effective policy development and implementation, though the speakers also acknowledged that current efforts are insufficient and much more work is needed.
Differences
Different viewpoints
Role and extent of government regulation in cybersecurity and space infrastructure
Speakers
– Robert M. Lee
– Josef Aschbacher
Arguments
Economic regulators often don’t align with national security policies, preventing companies from investing in necessary security measures
Space traffic management and global regulations are needed similar to air traffic control systems
Summary
Lee advocates for stronger regulatory alignment and government intervention to force companies to invest in cybersecurity, while Aschbacher explicitly states he is ‘not a big friend of huge regulations’ but acknowledges some regulation is necessary for space traffic management.
Topics
Legal and regulatory | Cybersecurity
Priority focus for cybersecurity improvements
Speakers
– Robert M. Lee
– Josef Aschbacher
Arguments
Basic security measures like firewalls are still missing from many critical infrastructure systems
AI integration in satellites enables automatic detection of forest fires, cloud coverage, and troop movements, reducing data transmission and improving response times
Summary
Lee emphasizes the need to focus on basic security fundamentals like firewalls before pursuing advanced technologies, while Aschbacher highlights the importance of implementing cutting-edge AI solutions in space infrastructure.
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure
Unexpected differences
Technology advancement versus basic security implementation
Speakers
– Robert M. Lee
– Josef Aschbacher
– Rafal Modrzewski
Arguments
Basic security measures like firewalls are still missing from many critical infrastructure systems
AI integration in satellites enables automatic detection of forest fires, cloud coverage, and troop movements, reducing data transmission and improving response times
Small satellite technology has transformed from student projects to billion-dollar military contracts, with ICEYE securing a 1.4 billion euro German defense contract
Explanation
Unexpectedly, there’s a fundamental disagreement about whether to prioritize basic security measures or advanced technological capabilities. Lee argues for focusing on fundamentals first, while Aschbacher and Modrzewski showcase cutting-edge innovations, suggesting different philosophies about technology development and security implementation.
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure | Economic
Overall assessment
Summary
The panel shows surprising consensus on the importance of international cooperation and the critical nature of space/submarine cable infrastructure, with disagreements primarily centered on implementation approaches rather than fundamental goals.
Disagreement level
Low to moderate disagreement level. Most conflicts are methodological rather than philosophical, focusing on whether to prioritize basic security measures versus advanced technologies, and the appropriate level of government regulation. The implications are significant as these different approaches could lead to divergent policy recommendations and resource allocation decisions in critical infrastructure protection.
Partial agreements
Partial agreements
Similar viewpoints
Both speakers emphasize the importance of implementing basic protective measures before pursuing advanced solutions, whether in cybersecurity or space debris management.
Speakers
– Robert M. Lee
– Josef Aschbacher
Arguments
Basic security measures like firewalls are still missing from many critical infrastructure systems
The Zero Debris initiative requires satellite operators to remove satellites from orbit at end of life to prevent collisions and explosions
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure | Legal and regulatory
Both speakers highlight the transformative potential of space technology for addressing global challenges and improving quality of life, particularly for underserved populations.
Speakers
– Jessica Rosenworcel
– Rafal Modrzewski
Arguments
Space technology can provide internet access to 2 billion people currently without connectivity at lower costs than terrestrial solutions
Space technology offers solutions for insurance claims, disaster response, and climate monitoring with unprecedented frequency and resolution
Topics
Development | Infrastructure | Economic
Both speakers recognize that the most critical cybersecurity challenges involve the intersection of digital and physical systems, not just traditional IT security.
Speakers
– Robert M. Lee
– Brian Wright
Arguments
Most cybersecurity focus has been on enterprise IT rather than operational technology that controls physical systems
The most interesting cybersecurity challenges occur at the intersection of software and physical systems
Topics
Cybersecurity | Infrastructure
Takeaways
Key takeaways
Modern society is critically dependent on space and undersea infrastructure that most people never think about, with 12,000 satellites and 600 submarine cables supporting everything from GPS to financial transactions
The space industry is experiencing a revolution where small teams can now build satellite companies from universities and compete for billion-dollar contracts, democratizing access to space technology
Current cybersecurity approaches focus heavily on enterprise IT while neglecting operational technology that controls physical infrastructure, creating dangerous vulnerabilities
Space debris is becoming a critical issue as satellite numbers could grow to 100,000 by decade’s end, requiring immediate action on debris removal and traffic management
International regulatory frameworks are outdated and inadequate for managing modern space infrastructure, relying on 1950s treaties for today’s complex challenges
AI integration in satellites is enabling autonomous detection of fires, weather patterns, and security threats, revolutionizing real-time Earth monitoring capabilities
Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure are already occurring regularly, with some explicitly targeting human life, making this a present rather than future threat
Space technology offers unprecedented opportunities including internet access for 2 billion unconnected people and real-time disaster response capabilities
Resolutions and action items
Implement the Zero Debris initiative requiring satellite operators to remove satellites from orbit at end of life
Develop space traffic management systems similar to air traffic control
Create international cooperation frameworks for managing shared space and ocean infrastructure
Establish legal definitions of space infrastructure as critical infrastructure to enable protective actions
Align economic and national security policies in government to enable proper infrastructure investment
Focus on basic cybersecurity measures like firewalls for critical infrastructure before pursuing advanced solutions
Develop robotic systems for active debris removal from orbit
Unresolved issues
How to enforce responsible behavior among all space actors when market entry barriers are low and regulations are weak
How to protect satellite infrastructure from hostile military attacks, especially when civilian satellites serve military purposes
How to achieve effective international cooperation when different countries have fragmented regulatory regimes
How to balance rapid innovation and market access with safety and security requirements
How to fund necessary cybersecurity improvements when economic regulators resist paying for security measures
How to manage the fundamental tension between increasing satellite numbers for capability versus debris risk
How to develop comprehensive global standards while respecting national sovereignty and local needs
Suggested compromises
Combine global cybersecurity standards with local regulatory flexibility for country-specific priorities
Allow rapid market entry for space companies while implementing mandatory end-of-life satellite removal requirements
Balance private sector innovation incentives with government regulation for public safety
Develop shared international frameworks for space traffic management while maintaining national control over domestic infrastructure
Focus on proven, basic security measures now while continuing research on advanced solutions for the future
Thought provoking comments
Almost everything in modern life depends on them… and they have two things in common. We don’t think about them very often, because satellites are in our upper atmosphere, most people don’t see them, and submarine cables are buried in the deep, dark depths of the ocean. The second thing that they have in common is… are both extraordinarily vulnerable.
Speaker
Jessica Rosenworcel
Reason
This comment brilliantly frames the central paradox of modern infrastructure – the most critical systems are simultaneously invisible and vulnerable. It establishes the fundamental tension that drives the entire discussion by highlighting how our dependence on these systems is inversely related to our awareness of them.
Impact
This opening insight set the tone for the entire panel, establishing the framework that all subsequent discussions would build upon. It shifted the conversation from technical details to existential dependencies, making the abstract concept of infrastructure vulnerability tangible and urgent.
Ten years ago, I was actually a college student at the university and so was my friend Pekka, and we were building a satellite the size of a milk carton… Not only we managed to put it together but we actually have put it together in less than two years… [leading to] a 1.4 billion euro contract.
Speaker
Rafal Modrzewski
Reason
This narrative demonstrates the democratization of space technology and the speed of transformation in the industry. It illustrates how barriers to entry have collapsed, making space accessible to students while also showing how this accessibility creates both opportunities and risks at unprecedented scale.
Impact
This comment fundamentally shifted the discussion from viewing space as a domain of large institutions to understanding it as an accessible frontier for small actors. It introduced the theme of rapid technological democratization that runs throughout the panel and explains why the regulatory and security challenges are so complex.
Congressman, with all due respect, there’s 55,000 water systems in the United States, most of them don’t have a firewall, like let’s start there, let’s do the basics, and then we can be a much better place.
Speaker
Robert M. Lee
Reason
This comment cuts through the complexity of advanced cybersecurity discussions to reveal a stark reality – we’re debating sophisticated solutions while fundamental protections are absent. It highlights the dangerous gap between our technological ambitions and basic security implementations.
Impact
This observation grounded the entire discussion in practical reality, shifting focus from futuristic threats to immediate, solvable problems. It influenced subsequent comments about the need for basic standards and regulations, and reinforced the theme that innovation is outpacing security infrastructure.
The CEO and board understands that risk and then decides to accept the risk and not do anything about it. Should that really be that company’s choice? I would argue no. You can make all the risk decisions you want about your company, but the moment it goes outside your fence line and kills my kids, I don’t think that you’re authorized to have that risk choice.
Speaker
Robert M. Lee
Reason
This comment reframes cybersecurity from a business risk to a public safety and moral imperative. It challenges the traditional notion of corporate risk autonomy by introducing the concept of externalized consequences, making the abstract concept of infrastructure vulnerability deeply personal and ethical.
Impact
This shifted the discussion from technical and economic considerations to moral and regulatory ones. It influenced Jessica’s subsequent comments about the need for international cooperation and helped establish the framework for discussing government’s role in regulating critical infrastructure.
I don’t think it’s enough for individual governments to manage this risk because we’re dealing with facilities that depend on shared spaces, upper atmosphere, the ocean, and we’re going to have to globally wrap our arms around the fact that we could have 100,000 satellites in space… This is a profound level of international cooperation to manage these risks.
Speaker
Jessica Rosenworcel
Reason
This comment elevates the discussion from national security concerns to global governance challenges. It recognizes that traditional regulatory frameworks are inadequate for managing shared global commons, introducing the complexity of international coordination in an era of rapid technological change.
Impact
This observation expanded the scope of the discussion beyond individual company or country solutions to systemic global challenges. It influenced the final questions about international cooperation and helped frame the closing comments about the need for new forms of global governance.
Sub 10% of any of the systems around the world, could we even detect that something was a cyber attack or that we have visibility into those systems and networks. And the reality is I’ve been involved in many cases where people were hurt or explosions or impacts and they didn’t think cyber was involved and it was.
Speaker
Robert M. Lee
Reason
This reveals a chilling reality – we may already be under attack without knowing it. It suggests that our current threat assessment is fundamentally flawed because we lack basic visibility into our own systems, making the discussion of advanced threats almost academic when we can’t even detect current ones.
Impact
This comment served as a sobering conclusion that recontextualized the entire discussion. It suggested that while the panel focused on future risks and solutions, we may already be experiencing the consequences of inadequate security, adding urgency to all the previously discussed solutions.
Overall assessment
These key comments shaped the discussion by establishing a progression from awareness (invisible dependencies) to democratization (student entrepreneurs), to practical gaps (basic security failures), to moral imperatives (externalized risks), to governance challenges (global cooperation needs), and finally to hidden realities (undetected attacks). Together, they created a comprehensive narrative that moved beyond technical discussions to address the fundamental mismatch between our technological capabilities and our institutional, regulatory, and security frameworks. The comments collectively argued that while the opportunities are unprecedented, our approach to managing the associated risks is dangerously inadequate and requires both basic improvements and revolutionary changes in international cooperation.
Follow-up questions
How can we develop better international cooperation and regulatory frameworks for managing shared space and ocean infrastructure?
Speaker
Jessica Rosenworcel
Explanation
Current regulatory frameworks are outdated (relying on treaties from the 1950s) and inadequate for managing 100,000+ satellites and hundreds of submarine cables expected in the next decade
How can we align economic policies with national security policies for critical infrastructure protection?
Speaker
Robert M. Lee
Explanation
There’s a disconnect where governments mandate cybersecurity requirements but economic regulators won’t fund the necessary investments
What specific cybersecurity standards and global cooperation mechanisms are needed for operational technology (OT) systems?
Speaker
Vice Minister from Armenia
Explanation
There’s a need for both global and local (‘glocal’) cooperation on cybersecurity standards, particularly for infrastructure that operates across borders
How can we protect space infrastructure from hostile attacks, not just debris?
Speaker
Roman Larkin (Aldoria CEO)
Explanation
As civilian satellite services become critical for military operations, they become targets for adversaries, requiring new protection strategies
How can we develop effective space traffic management systems with high accuracy and confidence?
Speaker
Josef Aschbacher
Explanation
With satellite numbers growing exponentially, there’s an urgent need for systems similar to air traffic control for space
What technologies and methods are needed for active debris removal from orbit?
Speaker
Josef Aschbacher
Explanation
Current debris mitigation efforts are insufficient; active removal technologies are needed to grab and deorbit dangerous spacecraft
How can we improve detection and visibility capabilities for cyber attacks on operational technology systems?
Speaker
Robert M. Lee
Explanation
Less than 10% of infrastructure systems worldwide can detect cyber attacks, and many incidents go unrecognized as cyber-related
How can AI help build trust among CEOs for investing in fault tolerance and distributed processing for essential services?
Speaker
Tris Jahanian (Carnegie Mellon University)
Explanation
There may be opportunities to use AI to better communicate the necessity and benefits of resilient infrastructure investments to business leaders
Disclaimer: This is not an official session record. DiploAI generates these resources from audiovisual recordings, and they are presented as-is, including potential errors. Due to logistical challenges, such as discrepancies in audio/video or transcripts, names may be misspelled. We strive for accuracy to the best of our ability.
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