Geopolitics of Materials

20 Jan 2026 16:30h - 17:15h

Session at a glance

Summary

The discussion at the World Economic Forum focused on “The Geopolitics of Materials,” examining how the global scramble for critical minerals and materials is both shaping and being shaped by geopolitical tensions. Moderated by Foreign Policy’s Ravi Agrawal, the panel included Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Industry Bandar Alkhorayef, Development Bank of Southern Africa CEO Boitumelu Mosako, Tech Resources CEO Jonathan Price, and Sandbox AQ CEO Jack Hidary.

Jonathan Price outlined the supply-demand crisis, noting that copper demand will outstrip supply by 30% by 2035 due to electrification, digitalization, and decarbonization trends. He emphasized that while data centers can be built in 1-3 years, new mines take 10-20 years to develop, creating a dangerous timeline mismatch. Minister Alkhorayef highlighted Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify from oil by making mining their third industrial pillar, dramatically reducing permitting times from the typical 10 years to just 30-90 days while ensuring community engagement and environmental responsibility.

Boitumelo Mosako stressed that Southern Africa, rich in critical minerals like copper and cobalt, must avoid traditional extraction models and instead focus on regional coordination and beneficiation to create development outcomes. Jack Hidary argued that AI and quantum computing could revolutionize materials discovery, enabling the creation of alternative alloys and reducing dependence on scarce minerals like neodymium.

The geopolitical dimension emerged as participants discussed how countries navigate between major powers, with examples ranging from potential U.S. interest in Greenland’s minerals to China’s dominance in battery production (85% globally). The panelists generally advocated for collaboration and diversification rather than choosing sides, emphasizing that technological innovation and regional cooperation could help create more resilient and equitable supply chains in an increasingly fragmented world.

Keypoints

Major Discussion Points:

– Supply-Demand Crisis in Critical Materials: There is a significant gap emerging between the rapidly growing demand for critical minerals (driven by AI, electrification, and decarbonization) and supply capacity. For example, copper demand is expected to double by 2035, but supply will fall 30% short, creating real-world consequences for infrastructure development.

– Regulatory and Permitting Challenges: Mining permitting processes vary dramatically between countries – from 10 years in Canada to 30-90 days in Saudi Arabia. This regulatory bottleneck is identified as a major constraint on supply chain development, with calls for more predictable and streamlined processes while maintaining environmental and community standards.

– Geopolitical Fragmentation and Resource Security: The discussion highlighted growing concerns about resource concentration (85% of batteries made in China, 92% of lithium processed there) and how geopolitical tensions are forcing countries and companies to reconsider supply chain resilience. Questions arose about whether nations will need to “pick sides” between competing blocs.

– Technology as Both Driver and Solution: AI and quantum computing are simultaneously creating massive new demand for materials while potentially offering solutions through the development of alternative materials and more efficient processing methods. Technology could help break current resource concentration patterns.

– Regional Cooperation and Development Models: The conversation explored different approaches to resource development, from Saudi Arabia’s rapid permitting model to Southern Africa’s emphasis on regional coordination and beneficiation rather than simple extraction, highlighting the need for more equitable development outcomes.

Overall Purpose:

The discussion aimed to examine how the global scramble for critical materials is both shaping and being shaped by geopolitics, exploring the intersection of supply chain challenges, technological advancement, regulatory frameworks, and international relations in the context of AI revolution and energy transition.

Overall Tone:

The tone was professional and analytical, with participants generally optimistic about technological solutions while acknowledging serious structural challenges. The conversation maintained diplomatic courtesy even when addressing sensitive geopolitical topics (like potential US actions regarding Greenland), with speakers carefully balancing national interests with calls for international cooperation. The tone remained constructive throughout, focusing on collaborative solutions rather than confrontational positions.

Speakers

– Ravi Agrawal – Editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy magazine, Host of FP Live

– Bandar Alkhorayef – Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources

– Boitumelo Mosako – CEO of the Development Bank of Southern Africa

– Jonathan Price – President and CEO of Tech Resources

– Jack Hidary – CEO of Sandbox AQ

Additional speakers:

– John Martinez – Mentioned in the audience, recently recognized by the Nobel Committee for work in quantum, former colleague of Jack Hidary at Google

– Howard Lutnick – Commerce Secretary (mentioned as speaking right before this session)

Full session report

The Geopolitics of Materials: Critical Mineral Supply Chains and Global Competition

Executive Summary

At the World Economic Forum, a distinguished panel examined “The Geopolitics of Materials,” exploring how the AI revolution and global energy transition are creating a new scramble for critical minerals. Moderated by Foreign Policy’s Editor-in-Chief Ravi Agrawal, the discussion featured Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef, Development Bank of Southern Africa CEO Boitumelo Mosako, Tech Resources President and CEO Jonathan Price, and Sandbox AQ CEO Jack Hidary.

The conversation revealed how technological advancement is creating unprecedented demand for materials while simultaneously offering potential solutions through AI-driven material design. Panelists identified critical supply-demand imbalances, regulatory bottlenecks, and dangerous geographic concentrations in processing, while exploring how emerging technologies might transform resource dependency patterns.

The AI-Driven Demand Surge

Agrawal opened by contextualizing the discussion within the AI revolution, noting that data center investments alone are projected at “$3-7 trillion in the next five years,” alongside the need for “600 million kilometers of new transmission lines.” This infrastructure boom is driving what he termed a “new scramble” for critical materials.

Jonathan Price outlined the stark mathematics: copper demand will double by 2035, but supply will fall 30% short. This crisis stems from three converging forces: electrification, digitalization, and decarbonization. The temporal mismatch proves particularly acute—while data centers can be built in 1-3 years, new mining operations require 10-20 years from conception to production.

Price emphasized that the challenge extends beyond copper to encompass all critical minerals needed for the energy transition and AI infrastructure. The scale of demand growth, driven by both renewable energy deployment and massive computational infrastructure requirements, far exceeds historical precedents.

Regulatory Bottlenecks: A Tale of Two Approaches

The panel highlighted dramatic variations in regulatory approaches across jurisdictions. Price described Canada’s permitting process extending up to 10 years, which Minister Alkhorayef found surprising, noting “I was shocked when I heard that number.”

In stark contrast, Saudi Arabia has reduced permitting times to 30-90 days. “The reason for that is we learned very, very early that permitting is a bottleneck in the system,” Alkhorayef explained. This dramatic reduction reflects Saudi Arabia’s strategic recognition of mining as their “third industrial pillar” alongside oil and petrochemicals.

When Agrawal challenged whether other countries could replicate this model, Alkhorayef acknowledged Saudi Arabia’s unique advantages while emphasizing the importance of political will and streamlined processes. Price agreed on the need for faster permitting while noting that environmental baseline work and community consultation require adequate time for responsible development.

Technology as Game-Changer: AI and Material Design

Jack Hidary presented perhaps the most transformative perspective, arguing that AI and quantum computing could fundamentally alter resource dependency. His central thesis: rather than competing for scarce materials, emerging technologies might enable designing new materials from abundant elements.

“We can now ask the question of the software, help us design a different alloy, an alloy of other materials that are readily available, that we’re already mining, already have permits, already at scale, and already plentiful, that can give us the performance of a neodymium-based magnet,” Hidary explained. This capability, he noted, simply didn’t exist two years ago.

The implications prove profound for materials like neodymium and praseodymium, currently essential for high-performance magnets but geographically concentrated. If AI can design alternatives using abundant materials, the entire geopolitical competition for critical minerals might be transformed.

Hidary also highlighted the scale of opportunity in stationary battery storage, describing it as “100 times the size of the electric vehicle battery market,” suggesting massive potential for technological solutions to address grid-scale energy storage needs.

Regional Development Strategies

Boitumelo Mosako emphasized Southern Africa’s approach to avoiding historical extraction patterns: “What is key for us as a continent is to ensure that the previous models of extraction are not adopted. We actually need to have this opportunity having certain development outcomes. When we extract the minerals, it’s not extracting from pit to port, but there is an element of beneficiation.”

This approach involves regional coordination through the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to ensure mineral wealth translates into sustainable development. Mosako described the Development Bank of Southern Africa’s role in facilitating partnerships, including the Lobito Corridor project with U.S. DFC, connecting mineral-rich regions with processing and export infrastructure.

The strategy emphasizes value-added processing rather than raw material export, creating local employment and technological capabilities while building regional coordination to enhance collective bargaining power in international negotiations.

Dangerous Concentration Patterns

The discussion revealed alarming concentration levels in critical mineral processing. Hidary presented stark statistics: “85% of all the batteries in the world are made in one country. You can guess where it is, China. 92% of all the lithium for those batteries is processed in China.”

This concentration creates systemic vulnerabilities as geopolitical tensions intensify. The concentration reflects strategic investment decisions rather than geological necessity—China’s dominance results from deliberate infrastructure development and supply chain integration, not exclusive resource access.

Minister Alkhorayef advocated for maintaining neutrality amid these tensions: “Saudi has been a neutral country forever and it will continue to do so. Our first priority is our national interest.” This perspective suggests middle powers may seek diversified partnerships while avoiding forced alignment with competing blocs.

International Cooperation Initiatives

Despite competitive pressures, panelists emphasized international cooperation’s importance. Alkhorayef highlighted Saudi Arabia’s Future Mineral Forum as a global platform, noting its success in attracting “almost 100 countries, 60 international organizations” and convincing the World Bank to reintroduce their minerals strategy.

The concept of a “super region” involving Africa, Middle East, and Central Asia represents another collaborative approach. Alkhorayef noted this region represents “33% of global mineral reserve but only contribute to 6%” of current production, suggesting enormous development potential through coordinated strategies.

Bilateral agreements also play crucial roles, including partnerships between Saudi Arabia and the United States on critical minerals, and various technology transfer arrangements that create frameworks for investment and supply chain development.

Sustainable Mining Practices

Price addressed environmental concerns by describing modern mining approaches, specifically referencing a Chilean operation using renewable power, desalinated water, and community partnerships. He emphasized that contemporary mining can achieve both speed and sustainability through proper planning and technology deployment.

The challenge lies in balancing rapid development needs with environmental protection and community engagement. Different countries face varying constraints based on governance structures, environmental conditions, and community dynamics, making one-size-fits-all approaches impractical.

Alkhorayef noted that Saudi Arabia’s positive experience with oil development influences current mining approaches: “people still in Saudi remember the impact of oil when oil was discovered. It had a great impact on our people, our society, the quality of life, education, health care, and the standard of living.”

Economic Diversification Models

Saudi Arabia’s diversification strategy represents an ambitious model, with Alkhorayef noting that “today, actually, the majority, or more than 50% of our GDP is actually coming from non-oil revenue.” This achievement demonstrates successful economic diversification while positioning mining as a key future pillar.

The approach extends beyond extraction to encompass entire value chains, including processing capabilities, manufacturing infrastructure, and technological development. However, not all countries possess Saudi Arabia’s financial resources or governance advantages, requiring different approaches adapted to local circumstances.

Future Outlook and Unresolved Challenges

The discussion revealed several unresolved challenges requiring continued attention. The fundamental timeline mismatch between mining development and infrastructure needs remains problematic, with no clear solutions for accelerating responsible mine development to meet urgent requirements.

Geopolitical tensions create ongoing uncertainties about cooperation and supply chain stability. The scalability and timeline of technological solutions remain uncertain—while AI offers promising possibilities, developing and deploying these technologies at global scale requires substantial time and investment.

The balance between development speed and sustainability continues challenging policymakers and industry leaders. Creating frameworks that enable rapid development while maintaining environmental protection requires ongoing refinement and adaptation to diverse contexts.

Conclusions

The panel demonstrated remarkable consensus on key challenges while offering complementary perspectives on solutions. The emergence of AI and quantum computing as potential game-changers represents perhaps the most significant development in resource strategy, potentially transforming zero-sum competition into collaborative innovation.

However, the transition period creates substantial challenges. Countries and companies must navigate current resource scarcity realities while investing in technological alternatives that may take years to mature. Success requires combining accelerated responsible resource development, technological innovation investment, international partnership building, and strategic flexibility in an uncertain geopolitical environment.

The transformation of global materials supply chains represents both challenge and opportunity. While current concentration patterns and supply-demand imbalances create significant risks, the combination of technological innovation, international cooperation, and strategic resource development offers pathways to more resilient outcomes.

Session transcript

Ravi Agrawal

I’m Ravi Agarwal, the editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy magazine. A warm welcome to all of you inside this room, and also a warm welcome to our global audience watching this live on WEF’s website, but also Foreign Policy’s website where we are live streaming this on my show, FP Live.

Our session today is called The Geopolitics of Materials. Now material is a very big word, and it encompasses a lot of different things, and that could include metals and wood and glass and plastics and critical minerals as well. Now most of these things have been around and been in demand for a very, very long time, going back to the Industrial Revolution.

If you can agree that we are now in a new revolution, an AI revolution, it would follow then that there is a new scramble for many of these kinds of materials, and in particular critical minerals, and this scramble is both being shaped by geopolitics and is shaping geopolitics in a very profound way.

And when you add in to that the growing forces of protectionism, nationalism, nearshoring, which accelerated after the pandemic, all of this in a moment of intense geopolitical flux where alliances are shifting in a world in which it seems that might is right.

These materials then become ever more important. They are truly the building blocks of competition between countries and companies. So I have a great panel here to talk about all of that.

I’m just going to quickly introduce them, and then we’ll dive in. To my immediate left, we have Bandar Alkhorayef, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Industry. To his left, Boitumelu Mosako, the CEO of the Development Bank of Southern Africa.

To her left, Jonathan Price, the President and CEO of Tech Resources. and to his left, we’ve got Jack Hidary, CEO of Sandbox AQ. Welcome all of you.

Thank you for making the time to be here. Jonathan, I’m gonna start with you. There’s, as I said, I mean, little doubt that there is a global scramble for materials.

And I’m just gonna name one of them. Copper, for example. It’s quite clear that research suggests that by the year 2035, demand is going to outstrip supply by 30%.

Just give us a big picture overview of that race and the gap between demand and supply, given the profound need for minerals and material more broadly.

Jonathan Price

Yeah, I think as a starting point, if we look at what the major macro drivers of metals demand are at the moment, in addition to the baseline of sort of industrialization and the day-to-day lives that we live, there’s a trend around electrification.

We’re seeing that globally, there’s a trend around digitalization and there’s a trend around decarbonization. And all of those three things are very metal-intensive industries. If you look at data centers, for example, we expect to see a tripling in data centers between now and 2035 with investments of between three and $7 trillion in the next five years alone.

So that’s a huge center of demand. Another one would be electricity transmission. Of course, if we’re gonna create all this new energy, this green energy, we have to move those electrons to where it will be consumed.

And we’re seeing there the need for around 600 million kilometers of new transmission lines to be built. Again, a very metals-intensive activity. We’re also still seeing, despite what you might read in the press, significant growth in the adoption of electric vehicles, perhaps not in the US to the same extent right now, but certainly in China and certainly in Europe.

So all of these are very metals-intensive applications. What we see on the supply side. And you’re exactly right, you know Ravi if we take copper as an example by by 2035 We expect to see a doubling in the copper that’s required relative to today and based on known supply Forecasts we expect to fall 30% short by then and that’s a huge problem Because supply and demand always meet and if the metals aren’t available It means that we can’t build the grid that we need or we can’t develop the data centers that are required or we’ll have less EVs on the roads.

There are real-world consequences of this and and the reasons are numerous One is that the timeline to develop a new mine can be very long from from identification of the resource Through all of the technical work the planning the permitting in particular It can take 10 to 20 years to bring a new mine online Whereas a data center can be developed in in one to three, so we’ve got a discontinuity of timelines Secondly, we’re working across national boundaries and as we’ve experienced recently that is more challenging than it’s ever been before so Predictable and resilient supply chains are now at risk through what we’re seeing happening with with trade and tariffs And then finally and it’s something we talk about in all areas as a supply chain.

It impacts data centers It impacts the grid. It also impacts mines, but is permitting and permitting is challenging in most jurisdictions It’s very slow, but it’s also very unpredictable so I think what we see is huge growth in demand now for things that the world wants and the world needs and we see a Mining sector which ultimately is the sector that produces the the metals and critical minerals Not moving at the same speed to to provide reliable supply into the future.

Ravi Agrawal

So that’s a great overview, especially from the private sector. Let’s try and understand how countries fit in minister Alkhorayef, you started Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Industry and mineral resources in 2019 and You’re making mining now your country’s third industrial pillar after oil and petrochemicals.

Talk to us a bit about how quickly the investments you’re making pay off. And in general, given the growing interest as described by Jonathan in materials, what is the role of a country versus a company?

Bandar Alkhorayef

Well, thank you, and it’s great to be here with you. I will start with how we look as a government to the mining sector. And for us, really, it’s an economic play.

We are very mindful that to develop a sector like mining, it is very hard to expect returns that are coming quickly. But we realize that unlocking the value that we have in our natural resource of the different minerals that we have will definitely help our economy to grow, to diversify. If I have to summarize our vision 2030, it’s all about diversifying our economy from an oil-based economy to a more diverse.

And we have been able to show, since the launch of our vision, that today, actually, the majority, or more than 50% of our GDP is actually coming from non-oil revenue and non-oil GDP. And the quality of that is very strong. It’s affecting our exports.

So we have record high exports in 24, 25, 24 and 25. And we expect to continue. And that’s an important element just to set the scene with regards to the return.

The other thing is, as my colleague here mentioned, that the timeline of investment in mining is very long. We as a country, and this comes back to your question, we try to solve this. So permitting, for example, and I remember when I visited Canada in my way to meet the minister, I was reading just the profile.

And it says it takes 10 years to have a permit. I thought there must be something wrong. So I asked my team, there must be a typo.

Are you sure? They said, yeah, we are sure. So even when I was there, I was still not sure.

So I said, I understand that it takes three to seven years to have a license in Canada. He said, no, it takes 10 years. So this is really.

Ravi Agrawal

How long does it take in Saudi Arabia?

Bandar Alkhorayef

Exactly. Now it takes in Saudi Arabia between 30 and 90 days. And the reason for that is we learned very, very early that permitting is a bottleneck in the system.

And it has to do, I think, especially with countries who started a while back in mining. We all know, and we have to be very, very frank about this, mining doesn’t have a good reputation globally. And because of that.

Often with good reason. For good reasons, definitely. For good reasons.

And that’s why we are trying to change. We are trying to change this. And cutting down the licensing process doesn’t only solve it.

You need also to show the communities, you need to show the people the impact of the mining on their life. And I think one of the things that we are probably lucky about, people still in Saudi remember the impact of oil when oil was discovered. It had a great impact on our people, our society, the quality of life, education, health care, and the standard of living.

And today we see that also. So coming back again, and I remember the first site we offered for auction in Saudi, maybe five years ago. The companies who did some of the drilling, they said, it’s very, very strange in this area.

Normally, when you get to a country, when we get to an area, everybody’s trying to push us out. Here, people are even offering to go to their farms and do the digging. So I think governments need to ensure that the community understand the impact.

Sure. And also the policies. So when we issued our new mining investment law, it had a great emphasis on the development of the society and the community.

Of course, the environment, the emphasis of technology because we believe that we want to build the future mines. We don’t want to build old mines. Sure.

And I think that’s the role of governments. In addition, and I want to close with this, as a result of all of this, we realized also that it’s not enough to do this in our jurisdiction. It’s very important to have a global movement.

And that’s why we launched the Future Mineral Forum, which today, I’m proud to say, it is the most important platform of global mining leaders coming in one place in Riyadh, different stakeholders from governments to mining companies, financial institutions, academia, technology providers.

It was just last week, we had more than, almost 100 countries, 60 international organizations, the top companies in mining, in financing, and so on. And I think that’s our contribution, at least as a country, also to the global community.

Ravi Agrawal

Sure. Boitumelo, all of this sounds great. But I have to say, Saudi Arabia has unique advantages.

I mean, most countries don’t have its money. Most countries have checks and balances that are much more messy and onerous and simply can’t cut down the permitting from 10 years to 90 days, as you said. Very impressive, but other countries, it’s not a model that every country can follow as easily as Saudi Arabia has.

And I worry that we could be entering a world of haves and have-nots. And given the work you do in Southern Africa and the countries and investments you oversee, what is your sense of models that we can put forward that are more equitable and sustainable and available as things that countries that aren’t as rich as Saudi Arabia can pull off?

Boitumelo Mosako

Thank you. Greetings to my fellow panelists and good afternoon, everyone. Saudi Arabia has the money.

The region that I come from has the minerals. I come from the Southern Africa region and we are a development finance institution. Yes, we’re wholly owned by the South African government, but we operate across Sub-Saharan Africa.

Now, if we look at critical minerals in the Southern Africa region, we have the copper belt through Zambia. We have cobalt, 60% of that, most of it, even I think it’s about 70% coming out of the DRC. We have PGM metals coming out of South Africa.

We, together with the World Economic Forum, when we wanted to really understand the depth of this opportunity, we did a study to really understand what is the level of the opportunity within the region and the role that we can play as a development finance institution.

over and above what we have been doing in the mining space. We did the research on that, and what we are seeing is a big opportunity for the region where these critical minerals are not only a commodity, but we’re seeing a strategic asset in these critical minerals, considering that there is also, I mean, when you listen to the G7 countries, when you add the engagements at the G20, the conversation was around critical minerals.

What is key? What is key for us as a continent is to ensure that the previous models of extraction are not adopted. We actually need to have this opportunity having certain development outcomes.

When we extract the minerals, it’s not extracting from pit to port, but there is an element of beneficiation. We do understand that putting that level of infrastructure takes time, but the sooner we do that, the better. The second thing I would like to mention that because we cannot do it, you know, we can go country by country, but that would be inefficient.

As a region, we actually need to negotiate the terms of how we’re going to take advantage of this opportunity together. So the role of SADC countries coming together and actually, you know, having a plan of how they’re actually going to do this is going to be key. The minister was mentioning the ease of permits, the regulatory environment.

Those elements are key. And if there is a standardized plan across the region, both on the key corridors for development, I’ll give an example. We’ve recently just funded, signed for the Lobito Corridor together with USD, DFC for the Lobito Corridor.

We need to agree on the terms around permits and all of these things. And I think that is what we need to do differently. That coordination, that integration within the region to adequately take advantage of this opportunity.

And what we will do for it, it will give us more leverage. I think when we are a collective, it gives much more leverage. And we’ve seen the strength of that regional leverage with how the EU, for instance, does its negotiations.

Ravi Agrawal

Excellent. Jack, let me bring you in. You run Sandbox AQ.

If I were to just throw a little bit of a curve ball into this, what if we’re in an AI bubble? What happens to all of this investment that we’re talking about and the excitement and critical minerals globally? Do you see that unraveling if this is a bubble?

Jack Hidary

Ravi, it’s good to be here and it’s good to be the curve ball that comes in. So, excellent. That’s why I made sure not to wear the tie.

I’m the tech guy here. It’s a great question. And let me just first step back because even beyond the needs of the AI industry, which is driving some of the needs for data centers, and John, you spoke about that very eloquently, the worlds of AI and quantum, these twin engines of computation, are just as we speak now, smashing right into the mineral supply chain and the hydrocarbon supply chain.

And there are two main drivers to that, Ravi, that I think are more fundamental and secular and will survive any. potential correction or even a reset of a bubble. The first is that when we look at materials, traditionally when we said, we need neodymium.

I know neodymium is on the top of mind of everyone here in this room. It is something that you use every day. If you drive a car, if you’re in a plane, you’re using high-performance magnets.

And high-performance magnets, one of the key ways to make them is either neodymium, part of the rare earth, those lanthanides. Remember back from periodic table land, that crazy thing on the bottom. And then it’s neighbor, prosodymium.

And traditionally, in the mining and materials space, we said, well, we need to get at that. Right now, the majority of the processing of neodymium happens in one country, China. It is sourced from a number of countries, but it is processed there mainly.

Recently, the United States government did a deal with MP Materials, Mountain Pass Materials, to start mining some neodymium in the Mountain Pass mine in California and to scale it up. But that will take a number of years. So traditionally, when we wanted to get a material, we’d have to go find it, mine it, and process it.

But now with computation, both quantitative AI, not language AI, not chat GPT or Gemini, but new and novel AIs that understand physics, materials, and energy, and engineering, these kinds of AIs, combined with new quantum techniques, allow us to ask a very different question.

A question that, what is the end goal? We want a high-performance material, a high-performance magnet, as an example. Every fighter jet, every electric vehicle car, every train, everything we use, many things we use in transportation use these high-performance magnets.

We can now ask the question of the software, help us design a different alloy, an alloy of other materials that are readily available, that we’re already mining, already have permits, already at scale, and already plentiful, that can give us the performance of a neodymium-based magnet.

That’s a very different question. And until two years ago, Ravi. We didn’t have the technical ability to answer that question.

But that is now changing. So that’s the first driver. And I want to recognize John Martinez in the audience.

John was recently recognized by the Nobel Committee for his work in quantum. And we were colleagues at Google. And it’s great to see that this tool now is now being recognized.

But the second driver, I want to expand, if we could, from just materials to also include the hydrocarbon space. And the minister is here from Saudi, one of the leaders in the hydrocarbon space. Traditionally, when we thought about hydrocarbons, we bring it up from the ground.

And then we do some basic refining using platinum catalysts, other high-performance catalysts. And we turn it into fractions. We turn it into high-octane gasoline to use in our cars.

We turn it to naphtha to make industrial products such as plastics. But then the bottom of the stack is something that often is either waste or sold at very low cost. We now again have the ability to take those bottom of the stack, refining stack, and turn it into high value.

And SABIC in Saudi and many other companies are starting to do this now with this kind of software. So this is, Ravi, a much more fundamental secular trend that is well beyond the needs of an AI data center or things like that. This is something that now in the hydrocarbon space must happen.

Why? Because if you are Aramco, if you are Exxon, you want to have more revenue in EBITDA, traditionally you’d say, I want to either pump more or try to control the price via some control strategy like OPEC or things like that.

Now that so much is being pumped around the world in so many different places, we can no longer control price that way. Instead, we must go to value add. We must think of the SABICs of the world.

We must think of the Exxons, the Dows, the DuPonts, the BASFs of the world. And we must add value in new ways. This means taking raw materials and making them into high value products such as graphite and carbon fiber.

Ravi Agrawal

If I’m hearing you correctly, just a second, Minister, that was brilliant because you deflected my question about whether we’re in an AI bubble to essentially say that AI will will enable better mining and a perpetuation of this moment.

Jack Hidary

And new materials, beyond even this revolution.

Ravi Agrawal

That’s brilliant. Minister, jump in.

Bandar Alkhorayef

I totally agree. I think the way we predict the future demand of minerals, I think, need to be re-evaluated. So let’s take the beginning of this session when we talked about nickel, was it?

Or copper. Copper, sorry. We are predicting it based exactly how much we use it, what we use it for.

And also taking into account, I think we need to change the way we think about. Because I totally agree that today with technology, with a lot of science, there’s a lot of alternatives. That new materials, different materials, can be developed.

But also legacy systems, legacy ways of doing things. I used to be in private sector, and most of my experience was in machinery. And when you look at the machinery business, a lot of spare parts are sitting either in warehouses or stacks of equipment unused.

Today, with additive manufacturing and 3D printing, you can turn 100 million, let’s say, warehouse of spare parts into probably 1 10th. And you can have a small additive manufacturing or 3D printing. So this is the kind of advancement that we really need to look at to ensure that we are not only looking at the mining or minerals of the future as the same way we are doing it today.

We need to think by adding into the equation how things could be done, how we are doing things much faster.

Ravi Agrawal

Jonathan, let me bring you in, if I may. I’ll come to you in a second. But Jonathan, the minister earlier said that mining doesn’t have a good reputation.

And I just wanna give you a moment to address that because amid this talk of making permits easier of a lot more investment in that space, what are you doing and what can be done more broadly to ensure that mining is safer, cleaner and is incorporating some of these technologies to do things in a way that couldn’t have been done before?

Jonathan Price

Yeah, look, I think there are many responsible miners in the world who work very hard to operate to the highest levels of safety and sustainability in terms of their activities. In Canada, where we’re located, they have a very high performance set of mining standards and we’re working together with the International Council on Mining and Metals to pull together a global set of standards that we would ask all mining companies to subscribe to.

So we won’t have those regional or country differences.

Ravi Agrawal

That’s when you have a 10-year permit, of course.

Jonathan Price

Yes, well, I’ll come to that. As an example, in Chile, where we’ve recently built a very large mine, we started community consultation early. We have 22 agreements with communities and fishermen’s unions in that area.

All of our power is generated from renewable sources that we have contracted, so solar and wind in Chile. All of the water for the project is desalinated. We’ve built a desalination plant and we’ve actually handed water permits back to communities because we don’t want to use them.

I think it’s a great example of how mining can be done very well and sustainably. And of course, we offer jobs and we create capability within the local communities, including within the indigenous communities in this area. Now, from a permitting perspective, I’ll say I’m very surprised that you could permit any mine in 30 to 90 days for the reason that there is a significant amount of environmental baseline work you have to do to ensure that you can be a responsible miner.

Now, for sure, that shouldn’t take 10 years. And I think, as we work with the government in Canada at the moment. as they look to dramatically shorten timelines.

That technical work will still have to be done. The environmental work will have to be done. The consultation with indigenous groups in particular will have to be first and foremost in what we do.

But if you can simplify the regulation, if you can provide a predictable process so we know exactly when we will get a decision, and the decision, by the way, for every mine shouldn’t always be yes. I mean, there are some mines that shouldn’t be built because the environment should be protected or there are other sensitive reasons regarding the community that shouldn’t happen. What we’re looking for is a predictable and repeatable process so we can have more certainty around the way we invest.

But I do think there are many companies in the industry who hold themselves to the highest standards here. Yes, there’s been a checkered past in mining as there has been in many other industries across the world, but we’re working very hard to change that now. And we recognize that if we want our downstream partners to use our products, they’re going to hold us to account for having been responsible, as will end consumers.

Ravi Agrawal

Sure. So the World Economic Forum hasn’t always had these sessions on critical minerals and materials. It is now for a reason.

This is suddenly really, really important in geopolitics for many reasons, AI, as we’ve been discussing, but also the rising nationalism and protectionism that I mentioned at the start. So let me bring geopolitics front and center for a few minutes. Bartomeu, I’m going to come to you first.

South Africa, for example, is not on good terms with the United States for a variety of reasons. America has also put some very tough tariffs on South Africa. What is your sense of, from your vantage point where you are in Southern Africa, how geopolitical tensions and tariffs are going to make it a lot harder to do some of the investments that you’re interested in?

And talk a little bit about the flux here, because we’re in a moment of immense business uncertainty. We don’t know what kinds of geopolitical. decisions will upend businesses?

Boitumelo Mosako

I think we are navigating uncertain times, and when you look at, for instance, within the South African context and all the products that we export to the US, from agricultural products to automotive as well, obviously we are negatively impacted by that, but, you know, we, our government continues to engage with the US government, now there’s a plan to look at the extension of AGOA, and that is still, you know, that is still at play.

But the opportunity here is, you know, when Jack was talking, and he was talking about technology, and I’m looking at critical minerals, is it the new oil? Could be. Critical minerals, you know, that we have an opportunity here within the region to say, how do we leverage these technologies by reducing the cost of exploration, of mining, so that

Ravi Agrawal

But if I may, just to throw a little bit of a bombshell into this. This week at Davos, easily the biggest topic is whether the United States is going to invade Greenland at some point. One of the supposed reasons for America’s interest in it is critical minerals, rare earths in Greenland.

So let’s say you have great deposits of critical minerals in Southern Africa. Let’s say the United States says, you know what, we kind of want them, it’s in our national security to have some of this. What happens then?

Boitumelo Mosako

Well, what happens then – I will give an example. We’ve just recently signed an agreement with the U.S. DFC for the building of the corridor.

That’s a U.S. development finance institution. We are a development finance institution in Southern Africa.

So I have an example of something that just happened recently where there is collaboration that is actually happening. Yes, there are these uncertainties, but at the institutional level, we need to do what we need to do and take advantage of the opportunities that are available.

Ravi Agrawal

Minister, let me put you on the spot with a similar question. I mean, Saudi Arabia has great relations with the United States, especially under the Trump administration. When you look at a United States that is being a little bit more open in how it is expressing its national interest.

So not just…

Bandar Alkhorayef

That was very polite.

Ravi Agrawal

A United States that defines America first, in fact, Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary right before this session, he said it. He said, you know, I care about sovereignty. And then he said, our sovereignty, but not Canada’s, not Greenland’s.

He didn’t say that, but that was the implication. You know, as a senior politician who cares about sovereignty, how are you navigating in this moment?

Bandar Alkhorayef

I think, first of all, I mean, we signed with the US an agreement with regards to critical minerals also, and the company that you mentioned, MP, was interested also in doing work with our company in Saudi, still this is also ongoing.

So reality is that mining and materials and critical minerals cannot be done, countries need to work together. But do you trust the United States? Of course we do trust the United States.

and a very strong ally to Saudi Arabia. We have been doing strong partnerships, both on a government level, but also private sector, and it has been a very- So if the United States does invade Greenland, you’ll still trust them? We’ll wait and see.

We’ll wait and see. But I think here we are talking about, is the geopolitics as a standalone, or is the critical minerals the reason for geopolitics? And I would argue to say that the reason of the tension of geopolitics is actually the criticality of the minerals, the concentration in different areas of the world.

We have seen during COVID, I mean, as countries not getting vaccines, when we trusted the global trade community, the WTO was a trusted organization to ensure that there is where countries will produce, others can consume.

When reality hit, containers were stolen from ports. Container was redirected that had basic stuff like masks, and so we have to be also realistic in designing our resilience as countries. But again, it is very hard to imagine that you can produce things like magnets from one country.

China is a unique case, but they will need also, they will need access to the materials. The fact that they were able to develop in technologies, I mean, that’s good for them. I mean, we can’t say that this is something wrong.

Ravi Agrawal

With respect, Mr. Minister, this is part of the problem because if the United States and China five, ten years from now are much more antagonistic, then a lot of countries, geopolitical swing states like yours, may end up having to pick a side.

Bandar Alkhorayef

Saudi has been a neutral country forever and it will continue to do so. Our first priority is our national interest. It’s very clear.

I can assure you that with today’s advancement of technology, this concentration will be broken. We cannot stay and look at the world as it is, as it is stagnant. There is a change every day.

There is a lot of alternatives. Today in Saudi Arabia, for example, we developed with the Ministry of Energy, for example, a program that is introducing nonmetallic products that are becoming more and more reasonable in cost and very advanced in terms of their use and durability.

So I think people, when you pressure people, they are able to come up with new ideas. But we should not wait until we are cornered. I think the rational thing to do is to collaborate.

And that’s what we are doing. We are creating a platform of collaboration in Saudi Arabia. We have been able to convince the World Bank through the Future Mineral Forum to reintroduce their strategy for minerals and critical minerals.

We have been able to work with countries like Africa, Middle East and Central Asia, where we call the super region, who represent probably 30, 33 percent of the global mineral reserve. only contribute to 6%. We have been saying that without Africa, there will not be any energy transition.

They will, it will be very hard to figure out. So we are bringing countries together to work together to identify new players, new technologies, new areas. We need to help Africa in infrastructure.

Having a mine is not enough. You need a railway, you need port, you need, today I think the Minister of Congo at the Future Mineral Forum said, it is the cost of logistics is 30% of the overall cost. This is, this is a huge.

So you need to collaborate as countries to reduce the pressure on the minerals so that we don’t think about these scenarios.

Ravi Agrawal

So Jack, let me bring you in, because the question of how countries navigate a fraught geopolitical moment with a lot of competition, potentially countries forming blocks, whether it’s a US-China block or not, I guess we’ll find out in a few years.

But the answer here was great, because it’s clear that clout, whether it is finances or size, that matters. The other thing that matters is collective action. So having other countries that can go along with you.

What is the company version of that to secure your future, your resources in a world that is geopolitically fractured?

Jack Hidary

Well, when you’re building a company, if you want to build a global company, that’s, if you want to scale, you’ve got to build a global company. You’ve got to be active in North America, in Europe. We’re very active in the Gulf region.

And ultimately, you want to be active in Asia as well. And it is, right now, a barrier that we can’t be active in mainland China because of these issues. And it is a major issue.

I’ll give one example of a case study, batteries. We’re all familiar with batteries. When you think about large batteries, most people think of electric vehicles.

And that is one demand for batteries. A demand that is 100 times the size of the electric vehicle battery market is for stationary batteries the size of half this room that will store energy. And there’s some already deployed.

Saudi, for example, is deploying now to get to about 7%, 8% of total grid power generation to be stored in batteries. We’ll go beyond that eventually. In the US, we only have 1.5% storage of our grid in any kind of battery or hydro-powered solution.

But eventually, most of the grid will have to have some kind of storage solution. That’s about a $1 trillion market. 85% of all the batteries in the world are made in one country.

You can guess where it is, China. 92% of all the lithium for those batteries is processed in China. And so again, we’re in a world right now where due to traditional division of labor and globalization, we have one country producing batteries for the entire world.

That is not really sustainable. That’s not sustainable for a number of reasons. And when we think about the needs in Africa, Africa is the fastest growing continent in terms of population, in terms of electricity needs, in terms of a number of other applications.

And we think about deployment of these batteries, we have to think in a way that we can produce batteries in many parts of the world rather than just one part of the world. And so as a company, we have to think about alliances and partnerships. We have alliances and partnerships that allow us to thrive in the Gulf region, to thrive in Europe, to thrive in North America.

I hope we can one day thrive in Asia. Right now, we are stymied by some of the geopolitical tensions there. But I hope one day that there could be more detente so that allows us to do that.

Today, though, it is very difficult to have a truly global company the way people did 50, 60 years ago.

Ravi Agrawal

Right, Boitumelo, just from what Jack was saying here, China has the stuff Africa needs. There are a lot of Western companies that are racing now to develop those things. From an African perspective, and China’s been investing in Africa for many, many years now, when you look at this decision that African companies and countries need to make, do we get from China what we need now, or do we work with America and sort of the Western block , as it were, to develop things in the future?

How is that decision playing out?

Boitumelo Mosako

I think when what Jack said, to say to have only one place is not sustainable. So how do we create resilience? And creating resiliency, when you look at where the minerals are, which are in Africa, the opportunity is in Africa.

How do we process and beneficiate in Africa? Where technologies are being developed, there’s technology transfer opportunities as well. There’s African risk capital that can come into it, or from other places in the world, so that there’s African money in the game.

Ravi Agrawal

So you’re essentially saying you don’t want to choose between China and the United States, you want both?

Boitumelo Mosako

You could say the opportunity is to create global resilience. It’s not about choosing, but it’s about creating supply chain resilience for the globe and the solution being on the African continent.

Ravi Agrawal

Jack, if I can just come back to you on this, because there are some areas where you actually do have to pick. I mean, if you think of tech stacks, you either do the Chinese tech stack or, you know, an American tech stack. You really can’t do them both unless you have so much money that you do buy them both, but they never interact with each other.

Same with defense. I mean, you buy a Chinese fighter jet or an American one. It’s rare that you have them both.

How do you see that playing out longer term?

Jack Hidary

Well, we’re seeing it right now. If you look at DeepSeek, if you look at Qian Wen, known as QWEN, which is from Alibaba, These are large language models that have proliferated now around the world. In fact, the most popular large language models in the continent of Africa and in a number of Southeast Asian countries are Chinese large language models, not ChatGPT, not Google Gemini, not Anthropic.

They’re actually cheaper to use, and they may not perform exactly the same. But for most parties, it might be good enough. So already right now, people are voting with their feet and their keyboards in terms of what technologies they’re using.

Now, in the future, I think what’s going to happen is we’re going to talk about not just sovereign AI, because countries need to make sure they have the resilience of understanding how to use AI for themselves, but also sovereign battery production, sovereign magnet production.

And not to say that every country has to be a producer, but with automation of production, more countries will be producers than today. I don’t think we’re going to have the same concentration in manufacturing that we’ve allowed to happen for the last 30, 40 years. I think republics and nations are recognizing the danger in that.

And more and more, we use robotics and automation to bring manufacturing in a way that is very efficient back to their shores.

Ravi Agrawal

So once again, tech can be the source of the discussion and also the solution for the problems we’re discussing. We’ve started very, very broad with material, but there was a lot here that we learned from all of you. So let’s hear it for Jack, Jonathan, Boitumelu, and Minister Alkhorayef.

Thank you.

Jonathan Price

Speech speed

185 words per minute

Speech length

Supply and Demand Challenges for Critical Materials

Topics

Legal and regulatory | Infrastructure

Agreed with

– Bandar Alkhorayef

Agreed on

Permitting processes are major bottlenecks that need to be addressed

Disagreed with

– Bandar Alkhorayef

Disagreed on

Appropriate timeline for mining permits

Modern mining can be done responsibly with renewable energy, desalinated water, and strong community partnerships

Explanation

Price argues that responsible mining companies can operate to high safety and sustainability standards. He emphasizes that modern mining practices can address environmental concerns while providing economic benefits to local communities, including indigenous groups.

Evidence

Chile mine example with 22 community agreements, renewable power sources (solar and wind), desalination plant for water, returning water permits to communities, job creation for local and indigenous communities

Major discussion point

Sustainable and Responsible Mining Practices

Topics

Development | Human rights | Infrastructure

The mining industry is working toward global standards through organizations like the International Council on Mining and Metals

Explanation

Price contends that many responsible miners already operate to high standards and the industry is working to establish global standards to eliminate regional differences. He acknowledges mining’s checkered past but argues the industry is actively working to change its reputation through accountability measures.

Evidence

Canada’s high mining standards; International Council on Mining and Metals developing global standards; downstream partners and consumers holding mining companies accountable

Major discussion point

Sustainable and Responsible Mining Practices

Topics

Legal and regulatory | Development

Bandar Alkhorayef

Speech speed

136 words per minute

Speech length

1651 words

Speech time

725 seconds

Saudi Arabia has reduced permitting time to 30-90 days to address supply chain bottlenecks

Explanation

Alkhorayef explains that Saudi Arabia identified permitting as a major bottleneck and dramatically reduced the timeline from the 10 years common in other countries to just 30-90 days. He argues that governments can solve systemic issues that slow down mining development when they recognize the importance of the sector.

Evidence

Comparison with Canada’s 10-year permitting process; Saudi Arabia’s new timeline of 30-90 days; mentions learning early that permitting was a bottleneck

Major discussion point

Supply and Demand Challenges for Critical Materials

Topics

Legal and regulatory | Economic

Agreed with

– Jonathan Price

Agreed on

Permitting processes are major bottlenecks that need to be addressed

Disagreed with

– Jonathan Price

Disagreed on

Appropriate timeline for mining permits

Governments should focus on economic diversification and solving systemic issues like permitting delays

Explanation

Alkhorayef argues that governments play a crucial role in developing mining sectors as part of economic diversification strategies. He emphasizes that while mining investments take time to pay off, they are essential for reducing dependence on single revenue sources like oil.

Evidence

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 achieving over 50% non-oil GDP; record high exports in 2024-2025; mining as third industrial pillar after oil and petrochemicals

Major discussion point

Role of Countries vs Companies in Materials Development

Topics

Economic | Development

Countries need to show communities the positive impact of mining on quality of life and development

Explanation

Alkhorayef contends that governments must demonstrate to local communities how mining can improve their lives, similar to how oil discovery transformed Saudi society. He argues that community buy-in is essential and can be achieved when people understand the benefits to education, healthcare, and living standards.

Evidence

Saudi people’s memory of oil’s positive impact on society; example of communities offering their farms for drilling; new mining law emphasizing community development

Major discussion point

Role of Countries vs Companies in Materials Development

Topics

Development | Sociocultural

Additive manufacturing and 3D printing can dramatically reduce material waste and inventory needs

Explanation

Alkhorayef argues that technological advances like 3D printing can revolutionize how materials are used, potentially reducing warehouse inventory by 90% and changing demand predictions. He contends that legacy systems and traditional approaches need to be reconsidered in light of these technological capabilities.

Evidence

Example of machinery spare parts warehouses being reduced from 100 million to 1/10th through additive manufacturing; personal experience from private sector machinery business

Major discussion point

Technology’s Role in Transforming Materials and Mining

Topics

Economic | Infrastructure

Major discussion point

Geopolitical Tensions and Resource Security

Topics

Economic | Development | Infrastructure

Agreed with

– Boitumelo Mosako

Agreed on

International collaboration is essential for addressing critical minerals challenges

Mining serves as an economic diversification strategy, with Saudi Arabia achieving over 50% non-oil GDP

Explanation

Alkhorayef presents mining as a key component of Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification away from oil dependence. He argues that while mining investments take time to generate returns, they are essential for building a more resilient and diverse economy that can withstand commodity price fluctuations.

Evidence

Vision 2030 results showing majority of GDP now from non-oil sources; record high exports in 2024-2025; mining as third industrial pillar

Major discussion point

Economic Models and Development Strategies

Topics

Economic | Development

Boitumelo Mosako

Speech speed

124 words per minute

Speech length

853 words

Speech time

411 seconds

Regional coordination among African countries is essential to leverage collective bargaining power and avoid inefficient country-by-country approaches

Explanation

Mosako argues that Southern African countries must work together rather than individually to maximize their leverage in critical minerals negotiations. She contends that regional coordination through SADC can create more efficient development of key corridors and standardized regulatory frameworks that benefit all participating countries.

Evidence

SADC regional approach; Lobito Corridor project funded with USD DFC; comparison to EU’s collective negotiation strength; standardized permits across the region

Major discussion point

Role of Countries vs Companies in Materials Development

Topics

Economic | Development | Infrastructure

Agreed with

– Bandar Alkhorayef

Agreed on

International collaboration is essential for addressing critical minerals challenges

Development outcomes and beneficiation should be prioritized over simple extraction models

Explanation

Mosako emphasizes that African countries must move beyond traditional pit-to-port extraction models to ensure that critical mineral wealth translates into actual development outcomes. She argues that beneficiation and value-added processing should be integral parts of any mining strategy to maximize economic benefits for the region.

Evidence

Jack Hidary

Speech speed

188 words per minute

Speech length

1533 words

Speech time

486 seconds

AI and quantum computing can help design alternative alloys using readily available materials instead of scarce critical minerals

Explanation

Hidary argues that advanced computation now allows us to ask fundamentally different questions about materials, designing new alloys from abundant materials that can match the performance of scarce critical minerals like neodymium. He contends this represents a paradigm shift from simply finding and mining materials to engineering alternatives.

Evidence

Neodymium magnet example used in cars, planes, and transportation; China’s dominance in neodymium processing; Mountain Pass mine development in California; new quantum techniques enabling materials design

Major discussion point

Technology’s Role in Transforming Materials and Mining

Topics

Infrastructure | Economic

Agreed with

– Bandar Alkhorayef

Agreed on

Technology can transform materials demand and reduce reliance on traditional mining approaches

Advanced computation allows for value-added processing of hydrocarbon byproducts into high-value materials

Explanation

Hidary explains that AI and quantum computing can transform the bottom-of-the-stack refining products, traditionally waste or low-value materials, into high-value products like graphite and carbon fiber. He argues this represents a fundamental shift in how hydrocarbon companies can add value beyond traditional price control strategies.

Evidence

Ravi Agrawal

Speech speed

158 words per minute

Speech length

Economic | Infrastructure

Unexpected consensus

Technology as both driver of demand and solution to supply challenges

Speakers

– Jack Hidary
– Bandar Alkhorayef
– Jonathan Price

Arguments

AI and quantum computing can help design alternative alloys using readily available materials instead of scarce critical minerals

Additive manufacturing and 3D printing can dramatically reduce material waste and inventory needs

Demand will outstrip supply by 30% for copper by 2035 due to electrification, digitalization, and decarbonization trends

Explanation

Unexpectedly, speakers from both technology and traditional mining/government sectors agreed that technology could simultaneously create the problem (increased demand) and provide solutions (alternative materials, reduced waste). This consensus suggests a sophisticated understanding that technological disruption can be managed through further technological innovation

Topics

Infrastructure | Economic

Need for speed in development while maintaining responsible practices

Speakers

– Jonathan Price
– Bandar Alkhorayef
– Boitumelo Mosako

Arguments

Modern mining can be done responsibly with renewable energy, desalinated water, and strong community partnerships

Saudi Arabia has reduced permitting time to 30-90 days to address supply chain bottlenecks

Development outcomes and beneficiation should be prioritized over simple extraction models

Explanation

Despite representing different perspectives (private sector, government, development finance), all three speakers agreed that rapid development and responsible practices are not mutually exclusive. This consensus challenges the traditional trade-off narrative between speed and sustainability

Topics

Development | Legal and regulatory | Infrastructure

Overall assessment

Summary

The speakers demonstrated remarkable consensus on key structural challenges (permitting bottlenecks, supply-demand imbalances, need for international cooperation) and the transformative potential of technology. They agreed on the importance of responsible mining practices, value-added processing, and avoiding forced geopolitical alignments.

Consensus level

High level of consensus with complementary rather than conflicting perspectives. The agreement spans technical, policy, and strategic dimensions, suggesting that despite different roles and regions, there is shared understanding of both challenges and solutions. This consensus implies that coordinated global action on critical minerals is feasible if stakeholders can build on these shared foundations while respecting different national circumstances and capabilities.

Differences

Different viewpoints

Appropriate timeline for mining permits

Speakers

– Bandar Alkhorayef
– Jonathan Price

Arguments

Saudi Arabia has reduced permitting time to 30-90 days to address supply chain bottlenecks

Permitting processes are major bottlenecks, taking up to 10 years in some countries like Canada

Summary

Alkhorayef advocates for extremely fast permitting (30-90 days) while Price argues that proper environmental and community consultation cannot be rushed, though he agrees 10 years is too long. Price emphasizes that significant environmental baseline work and indigenous consultation must be done responsibly.

Topics

Legal and regulatory | Infrastructure

Feasibility of replicating Saudi Arabia’s mining development model

Speakers

– Ravi Agrawal
– Bandar Alkhorayef

Arguments

Most countries cannot replicate Saudi Arabia’s advantages in streamlining mining development

Countries should focus on economic diversification and solving systemic issues like permitting delays

Summary

Agrawal argues that Saudi Arabia’s model is not replicable due to unique advantages like wealth and governance structure, potentially creating inequality. Alkhorayef presents their approach as a solution that other countries should adopt through government focus and systemic problem-solving.

Topics

Economic | Legal and regulatory

Unexpected differences

Trust in geopolitical partnerships during territorial expansion

Speakers

– Ravi Agrawal
– Bandar Alkhorayef

Arguments

Geopolitical tensions may force countries to choose sides, potentially disrupting global supply chains

Countries must balance national interests while maintaining neutrality and avoiding forced alignment with major powers

Explanation

When Agrawal directly asked about trusting the US if it invades Greenland, Alkhorayef’s response ‘We’ll wait and see’ revealed unexpected pragmatic caution despite Saudi Arabia’s strong alliance with the US. This suggests even close allies maintain strategic flexibility when faced with aggressive territorial expansion scenarios.

Topics

Economic | Legal and regulatory

Overall assessment

Summary

The discussion revealed moderate disagreements primarily around implementation approaches rather than fundamental goals. Key areas of disagreement included permitting timelines, replicability of development models, and approaches to supply chain resilience.

Disagreement level

Low to moderate disagreement level. Most speakers agreed on core challenges (supply shortages, need for sustainability, geopolitical risks) but differed on solutions and timelines. The disagreements reflect different national contexts and capabilities rather than fundamental philosophical differences, suggesting potential for collaborative approaches despite implementation challenges.

Partial agreements

Economic | Infrastructure

Takeaways

Key takeaways

There is a critical supply-demand gap emerging for materials like copper, with demand expected to outstrip supply by 30% by 2035 due to electrification, digitalization, and decarbonization trends

Mining development timelines (10-20 years) are severely misaligned with infrastructure needs like data centers (1-3 years), creating systemic bottlenecks

Permitting processes are major obstacles, varying dramatically from 10 years in Canada to 30-90 days in Saudi Arabia

AI and quantum computing technologies can potentially solve material scarcity by designing alternative alloys using readily available materials instead of scarce critical minerals

Regional coordination and collective bargaining power are essential for resource-rich regions like Southern Africa to avoid exploitation and ensure beneficiation rather than simple extraction

Geopolitical concentration of critical material processing (85% of batteries and 92% of lithium processing in China) creates unsustainable vulnerabilities for global supply chains

Modern mining can be conducted responsibly using renewable energy, desalinated water, and strong community partnerships when proper standards are implemented

Countries are pursuing economic diversification strategies through mining development, with collaboration being essential due to the global nature of supply chains

Resolutions and action items

Saudi Arabia launched the Future Mineral Forum as a global platform for mining stakeholders to collaborate and coordinate efforts

The World Bank was convinced to reintroduce their strategy for minerals and critical minerals through the Future Mineral Forum

A ‘super region’ initiative was established involving Africa, Middle East and Central Asia countries representing 33% of global mineral reserves

The mining industry is working toward global standards through the International Council on Mining and Metals to eliminate regional differences

Southern Africa signed agreements including the Lobito Corridor development with U.S. DFC for infrastructure development

Specific bilateral agreements were mentioned between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. on critical minerals, and with MP Materials for collaboration

Unresolved issues

How to effectively balance national sovereignty with increasing geopolitical pressure from major powers seeking resource access

Whether current AI investment represents a bubble and how that might affect long-term materials demand projections

How to standardize permitting processes globally while maintaining necessary environmental and community protections

How to achieve equitable development models for countries without Saudi Arabia’s financial resources

How to manage the transition from concentrated manufacturing (particularly in China) to more distributed production without major disruptions

How to ensure African countries can move from extraction to beneficiation without being forced to choose between Chinese and Western partnerships

How to address the fundamental timeline mismatch between mining development and infrastructure needs

Whether technological solutions can scale quickly enough to address projected material shortages

Suggested compromises

Countries should maintain neutrality and focus on national interests rather than being forced into geopolitical alignment with major powers

Create supply chain resilience through diversification rather than forcing binary choices between Chinese and Western technology stacks

Develop regional coordination mechanisms that allow collective bargaining while respecting individual country sovereignty

Implement predictable and streamlined permitting processes that balance speed with necessary environmental and community protections

Use technology transfer and partnership models that allow multiple stakeholders to benefit from critical mineral development

This comment reveals how even close US allies are thinking about maintaining strategic autonomy in an increasingly polarized world, while expressing confidence that technology will break current monopolies.

Impact

This response to direct questioning about US-China competition and potential US actions in Greenland showed how middle powers are navigating great power competition. It reinforced the theme that technological innovation, rather than geopolitical alignment, might be the key to resolving resource competition.

Overall assessment

Explanation

Hidary suggested that countries will need to develop sovereign production capabilities for critical components, requiring research into how automation and robotics can enable distributed manufacturing

Disclaimer: This is not an official session record. DiploAI generates these resources from audiovisual recordings, and they are presented as-is, including potential errors. Due to logistical challenges, such as discrepancies in audio/video or transcripts, names may be misspelled. We strive for accuracy to the best of our ability.