Hard Power: Wake-up Call for Companies / DAVOS 2025

Summary

This panel discussion at the World Economic Forum focused on the global economic outlook following Donald Trump’s inauguration as US President. The panelists, including government ministers and business leaders, explored the potential impacts of Trump’s policies on international trade, geopolitics, and economic cooperation.

Key topics included the investment climate in Ukraine amid ongoing conflict with Russia, the UAE’s economic growth and diversification efforts, and China’s role in the global economy. Panelists discussed the shift away from globalization towards more nationalist economic policies, with governments taking a more active role in managing trade and industrial policy.

There were differing views on the risks facing the global economy. Some panelists emphasized climate change and geopolitical tensions as major concerns, while others focused more on issues like government deficits and inflation. The potential for trade conflicts, particularly between the US and China, was debated.

Regarding Trump’s presidency, panelists generally expected a more business-friendly regulatory environment in the US, but also more unpredictability in international relations. The discussion touched on specific issues like the future of TikTok and US chip export controls.

Overall, while acknowledging various risks and challenges, most panelists expressed cautious optimism about global economic prospects. They emphasized the need for countries and businesses to adapt to a changing geopolitical landscape while seeking opportunities for growth and cooperation.

Keypoints

Major discussion points:

– The impact of Donald Trump’s election on global trade, geopolitics and business

– China’s economic challenges and its role in the global economy

– The ongoing war in Ukraine and prospects for peace

– The UAE’s economic growth and vision for the future

– Changing dynamics of globalization and government intervention in economies

Overall purpose/goal:

The discussion aimed to analyze the global economic and geopolitical landscape in light of Donald Trump’s re-election, exploring implications for different regions and industries. Panelists offered perspectives on key challenges and opportunities facing the world economy.

Tone:

The overall tone was cautiously optimistic. While acknowledging significant geopolitical and economic risks, most panelists expressed a generally positive outlook. The Ukrainian representative understandably had a more somber tone when discussing the war, but still conveyed resilience and hope. The UAE minister was notably upbeat throughout, emphasizing opportunities even in challenging circumstances.

Speakers

– Hadley Gamble: Al Arabiya Chief International Anchor, columnist for Semaphore

– Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: Minister of Economy of the United Arab Emirates

– Nader Mousavizadeh: Founding partner and CEO of Macro Advisory Partners in the U.K.

– Nir Bar Dea: CEO of Bridgewater Associates

– Yuliia Svyrydenko: Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy of Ukraine

Additional speakers:

– None identified

Global Economic Outlook and Geopolitical Shifts

This panel discussion at the World Economic Forum focused on the global economic outlook in light of Donald Trump’s potential re-election as US President. The panellists, including government ministers and business leaders, explored the impacts of shifting geopolitical dynamics on international trade, economic cooperation, and investment climates across various regions.

A key theme that emerged was the ongoing shift from globalisation towards increased government intervention and geopolitical fragmentation. Nir Bar Dea of Bridgewater Associates characterised this as a move towards “modern mercantilism”, where governments are taking a more active role in managing trade and industrial policy. This shift was seen as a response to the unequal distribution of benefits from decades of globalisation, which has contributed to rising populism and nationalism.

Despite acknowledging various risks and challenges, most panellists expressed cautious optimism about global economic prospects. Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy of the United Arab Emirates, emphasised opportunities for growth despite geopolitical risks, noting that major economic risks were absent from global risk assessments. Nader Mousavizadeh of Macro Advisory Partners echoed this sentiment, citing several positive factors contributing to a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Impact of Trump’s Potential Second Term

The potential impact of a second Trump presidency was a significant focus of the discussion. Panellists generally expected a more business-friendly regulatory environment in the US, but also more unpredictability in international relations. Bar Dea suggested that if the world embraces the changes happening, there could be positive outcomes, including the resolution of global conflicts. However, he also warned that failing to adapt could lead to significant challenges.

Yuliia Svyrydenko, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine, expressed hope that a change in US leadership could potentially lead to an end to the war in Ukraine. Mousavizadeh noted that a second Trump administration would inherit a strong economic foundation, which could lead to positive outcomes if managed correctly.

In their final assessments, panellists offered varied perspectives on the outlook for the next four years under a potential Trump presidency, ranging from cautious optimism to concerns about increased volatility in international relations.

China’s Role in the Global Economy

China’s position in the global economy was another key topic of discussion. Despite ongoing tensions with the US, panellists agreed on China’s crucial role in global trade and manufacturing. Al Marri highlighted China’s economic complexity and export strength, arguing that China’s internal economic issues, particularly in the real estate sector, do not negate its global export prowess. Bar Dea emphasised China’s importance in investment portfolios for geographic diversification, suggesting that China offers opportunities to diversify from US-centric investments.

The discussion also touched on US-China competition in advanced technologies like artificial intelligence, with Mousavizadeh mentioning recent US policies on AI chip exports and their implications for global competition.

Ukraine’s Economic Situation and Reforms

Svyrydenko provided insights into Ukraine’s economic situation amidst ongoing conflict with Russia. She highlighted significant progress in fighting corruption and oligarchy, as well as the implementation of judicial reforms and measures to improve the business environment. Svyrydenko emphasised the resilience of Ukrainian businesses and the country’s focus on incentivising domestic production and consumption, particularly in the defence sector.

However, she stressed the critical need for security guarantees to attract foreign investment, calling on businesses to be more vocal about the kind of security assurances they require to invest in Ukraine. This underscored the importance of private sector advocacy in promoting peace and stability.

UAE’s Economic Strategy and Outlook

Al Marri presented an optimistic view of the UAE’s economic prospects, focusing on the country’s efforts towards diversification and innovation. He highlighted the UAE’s strong trade relationships with both the US and China, positioning the country as a bridge in global trade and supply chains. Al Marri also expressed interest in growing the UAE’s space industry, potentially through collaboration with the US, indicating a forward-looking approach to economic development.

The UAE’s approach to climate change and sustainability was briefly touched upon, with Al Marri noting the country’s commitment to balancing economic growth with environmental considerations. He also addressed the UAE’s position on frozen Russian assets, emphasizing the need for a careful and considered approach to such sensitive issues.

AI and Geopolitical Implications

Mousavizadeh highlighted the growing importance of artificial intelligence in shaping geopolitical dynamics. He discussed recent US policies on AI chip exports and their implications for global competition, particularly in the context of US-China relations. This underscored the increasing intersection of technology, economics, and geopolitics in shaping the future global order.

Unresolved Issues and Future Challenges

The discussion highlighted several unresolved issues and potential challenges for the global economy. These included:

1. Providing security guarantees for Ukraine to attract foreign investment

2. The future of US-China trade relations under a potential Trump administration

3. Addressing mounting deficits and potential debt issues in major economies

4. Defining Europe’s role in the changing global economic landscape

5. Balancing economic growth with climate change mitigation efforts

The panellists also touched on specific issues like the future of TikTok in the US and the need to balance global trade and manufacturing relationships with China while addressing national security concerns.

Conclusion

Overall, while acknowledging various risks and challenges, the panellists expressed cautious optimism about global economic prospects. They emphasised the need for countries and businesses to adapt to a changing geopolitical landscape while seeking opportunities for growth and cooperation. The discussion underscored the complex interplay between economic policies, geopolitical tensions, and technological advancements in shaping the future of the global economy.

Hadley Gamble: Hi, everybody. My name is Hadley Gamble. I am the Al Arabiya Chief International Anchor, as well as a columnist for Semaphore. I’m thrilled to be on this panel and introducing this topic for all of you. We’re talking about hard power and the wake-up call for companies in the wake of the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, his inauguration, of course, yesterday, and what that will mean for the global economy over the next four years and over the next few decades. We’ve also been talking a bit about reshoring on corporate earnings. It’s been something that’s on the rise, global tensions unlikely to ease in the coming years. So we’re going to get all into it. Now I want to introduce my panelists. I’m very thrilled to have this lady next to me, Her Excellency Yuliia Svyrydenko, His Excellency, the Minister of Economy of the United Arab Emirates, Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri, the founding partner and CEO of Macro Advisory Partners in the U.K., Nader Mousavizadeh, as well as Nir Bar Dea, the CEO of Bridgewater Associates. Gentlemen, Your Excellencies, welcome. I want to kick it off, actually, with Her Excellency and just get a sense from you about where we are in the investment case for Ukraine. Donald Trump inaugurated yesterday. He’s been very clear about the fact that he wants to end the war as soon as possible between Ukraine and Russia, and there are a lot of companies that are present here at the World Economic Forum who’ve committed to getting into Ukraine and investing. Where are we with that?

Yuliia Svyrydenko: First of all, I think that Ukraine wants to end this war more than others, but it’s not the matter of the criteria that it should be so quick, but it should be criteria of the peace based on the understandable terms and conditions for Ukraine, and it should be, of course, the component for the guarantees, because you just tried the issue on the businessmen and businesses and private sector. All businesses were met with during Davos and previously, rising just one issue, so how you can help us to solve the problem with security guarantee, because we need confidence and we need to be sure that this guarantee will prevent Putin from invasion to Ukraine in the next few years, so even if the war will be ended during this year. So that’s why I think that we are doing our homework. We are providing reforms, even during the war time, we are responding all requirements from EU side, because we are on our path to EU, and we are providing war risk insurance right now with DIVA. DFC, with MIGA, with EBRD, our own expert credit agency, I mean local one, also providing insurance guarantee because it was requested during the first, I remember, during the wartime in 2022, and we allocate all projects from private sector and public, actually one single project pipeline and investment guide. Now we understand perfectly well that everybody is waiting for the ending of the active phase of war. But then the question is, what would be the security guarantee? And here we have businesses in this room, so, and I want to, you know, to apply to you and to say, look, you’re waiting until the government of Ukraine, of U.S., European Commission will solve the problem with guarantee. But you also have the market power and you also can change the global order. To do so, you need also to give the description, what kind of security guarantee you need. You need more anti-missile system in the industrial walls, or you need troops, or you need NATO. So that’s why it’s also, on this stage, I think that it’s also time for businesses to be more vocal on this kind of things and also to help us in this issue. Because actually, I think that we need to get to you and you need Ukraine, not less and vice versa. You know, we…

Hadley Gamble: So you’re saying businesses, corporates should be pressing their governments to end this conflict?

Yuliia Svyrydenko: More vocal, because they should believe in themselves that they also can definitely change the global order. And if they need security guarantee, that should apply together with us.

Hadley Gamble: Yeah. Your Excellency, you’re also, of course, an investor in Ukraine. We just discussed this backstage. Minister Al Marri, when you think about things going forward, if Donald Trump is successful in ending this conflict, all those Russians that have taken up residence in the UAE, do you believe they’re going to head home?

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: Well, I think the… First of all, we are very supportive to the Ukraine government. We have signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement. We are very advocate on pushing the trade between us and Ukraine and moving the Ukrainian products as well, and redesigning supply chain across. Our economy is very vibrant. We are growing from 5% to 6% every year. We have growth this year expected by the IMF, about 5%, total GDP. Non-oil GDP, we are expecting more than 6%. I’m very greedy on 7%. I’m 75% non-oil GDP in my economy. So overall economy is on growth. Three years ago, I had 500 to 600,000 companies registered in my National Economic Registrar, and it was that average population of registry for the last three decades. Today, I have 1.2 million, and I’m expecting another 300,000 companies to come in. UAE always build a bridge, always designs a supply chain. We have 20 plus CEPAs signed, and the target is to sign 26 more, and this was three years ago target. My 1 million company target was three years ago. I hit it this year, and it was for seven years ahead. I need to change my targets, increase it to 2 million companies registered in my National Economic Registrar. Now, that’s a problem for traffic in the country. We have a lot of traffic happening. It’s true. I am. But Dubai has something as well. Dubai came up with a plan, said we need to make the city more of a 20-minute city to get people moving in and out easily, and that’s going to need another decade or so to design the infrastructure in doing so. So yes, we are ready for the world. We are very open. We need the corporations as well to really think about the UAE as a place. Now, when you look at the UAE, we are about 9 to 10 million, 12 million population. But when we go into trade, we are more than, let’s say, 3 trillion dirhams, which is about $800 billion worth of trades. But we are 12 million. Where does this 800 billion go, right? So when you look at it, we don’t offer 9 to 10 million population. We offer the 300 million population of the region. A lot of companies who are based in the UAE operate from everywhere, anywhere. 8 a.m. in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, is about 12 p.m. or midday in Japan. Midday in Dubai is about 8 a.m. or depends on the winter timing in London. And 5 p.m., those in New York and D.C. is about 8 a.m. in the morning in the U.S. So if you open shop in Dubai, on the Abu Dhabi, you’re actually operating the whole world.

Hadley Gamble: It’s a 24-hour environment, as I know. I haven’t been sleeping for a few years.

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: You’re based in Dubai, and you’re based in…

Hadley Gamble: But again, sir, Russians. You’re not worried about them headed home?

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: Well, we have an economy that I want to increase, and we are predicted to grow even bigger and bigger. And that’s what I always bet on and bench on, and I think that’s where we’re going to keep on going. I’ve been in the Cabinet as a minister 4 1⁄2 years ago. Let’s go 4 1⁄2 years ago. What was it? COVID. I was assigned in July 2020, three months into COVID. I’ve been in the trenches. I’ve been in the deepest parts of the economy. I’ve seen the worst. I think from there, it went up, and I’ve managed to change 40 legislation and laws and regulations to make the economy more agile, more advanced, more fast, more recovery, more speed, more younger. That’s where I am.

Hadley Gamble: Yeah, I want to ask you, how do you see that political theater that we witnessed 24 hours ago? Because the markets, of course, have reacted. What, in your mind, was the most significant thing that we heard Donald Trump say?

Nir Bar Dea: So, as I said to you earlier, I think mostly within expectations. The thing I think that is happening is there’s a change in the world that is significant and probably the most significant one in our lifetime, especially in the economies and markets. We’re coming off of decades. decades of relative stability. So since the fall of the Berlin Wall, China joining the WTO in 2001, we’ve been on this long stretch of globalization, global collaboration, that led to a very efficient world, disinflationary even when things are going amazingly well, governments were trying to get out of the way, free trade, it’s been incredible. But that has been shifting. It has been shifting because a couple things happened. One, while this created a lot of benefits and the kind of disinflationary pressures, it also created tremendous gains that were distributed very unequally in the world. So the rise of China, some of the emerging markets benefited, but also in the developed world especially, there was a hollowing out of the manufacturing base, kind of the middle class. You take that process slowly and then you see political shifts in reaction to that. So when you see the inauguration yesterday, it’s mostly a reflection of processes that have been in place for years. If you look at Europe and you’re seeing governments fall in Europe and in Canada, those are all reflections of changes that have been happening in the world for a long time. The other thing that has been happening over the last 30 years is a lot of economies became very interconnected. That had a lot of benefits because it created strength, but at the same time, starting COVID and then the Russia-Ukraine war, that vulnerability of, hey, wait, I’m not self-sufficient. Not only can I get hurt because of changes that are happening in the world, but people can also use that as levers over me in different ways has come to be front of mind. And you take the series of things that I just said, which is the rise of China, the unequal distribution of the gains from the globalization, the political changes that brought about, the fact that people realize the vulnerability and how that could be used as a lever, it started a shift in the world over the last three, four years from a global. globalizing world, it’s like a slow-moving ship that has now basically faced the exact opposite direction of what we call, Bridgewater, modern mercantilism, which is a world where governments are much more involved in what’s happening. They’re much more worried about the vulnerabilities of globalization. They would try to avoid trade deficits. I look at Trump’s speech yesterday, and it’s basically laying out that world perspective. And I think we should expect the world to continue that direction in government, investors, and corporates should be preparing for that.

Hadley Gamble: We saw the dollar moving. How worried should we be about the world’s reserve currency with Donald Trump?

Nir Bar Dea: I don’t see concerns in the near term. If there are worries about the dollar, they come from another one of these long-term changes that are happening, which is mounting deficits. One of the things that has happened in more populous regimes is the very easy environment, financing money, deficits that are only equivalent to war time, but now they’re happening at a time where economies are prosperous. There’s going to be a point that if we don’t deal with that, there’s going to be a question about what’s the right storehold of wealth. I don’t think that is something that is going to happen imminently, but it’s, again, one of those things that create a lot of uncertainty going forward.

Hadley Gamble: One thing that Donald Trump didn’t say yesterday was any mention of Europe, and that leads one to suppose that, to the Trump administration at least, Europe is completely irrelevant. In your mind, what does that mean for Western democracy?

Nader Mousavizadeh: I think the first thing I’d say, and I pick up on a couple of points Nir made, is that we should just really understand this as a juncture in a longer change in the global economy and in global order, and we’re a third of the way in, in a three, four-decade period. I think what, for Europe, the challenge is that it is structurally in a very difficult place in the nature of its own economy. You have political crises in most of the governments, and then you have a president of the United States. who will look at Europe, partly through longstanding, very public grievances he has about European governments and certain European countries. But where the opportunity lies, and certainly this is the work we do with our clients, is to say that this is actually a moment, this kind of change in globalization, this moment where you have a outperforming US economy overlaid with Trump coming in with much more business-friendly deregulatory and other measures compounding that effect, where I think the opportunity for Europe, which right now looks a little dark because he didn’t talk about Europe, he has these grievances, is actually one of the things we have to get used to in this new world, is seeing countries as the main unit is going to be going away. So Donald Trump already is engaging with European businesses, has been doing since he was elected. And so thinking of the European opportunity set and where the vectors of European power and engagement will be with the United States, much more through companies, much more through individuals, again, what he’s used to from the United States, I think is one of the very big changes Europe is going to have to get used to, because otherwise it’s going to be a very, very difficult engagement. Because fundamentally, again, part of what Nir was pointing to is you have in Donald Trump, and he brought this when he was first elected, a view which was such a break with US tradition, which was rather than globalization being seen as a key US asset, he came to office saying globalization is actually parasitic on the United States. And Europe, more than any other part of the world, is parasitic on the United States. You can debate this. There’s something called NATO that has existed for 75 years. It’s done a pretty good job. But that has been the mindset. And so Europe starts this relationship in a challenging place, but I think where the opportunities will lie will be with European businesses and European investors.

Hadley Gamble: Deputy Prime Minister, how worried is Ukraine today about the fact that not only it seems Donald Trump is going to turn off the taps when it comes. to economic support, but also that Europe, as we’ve just heard, is struggling itself to make ends meet. Because that obviously has direct implications for how much they can give to Ukraine, whether it be on the weapons front or economically.

Yuliia Svyrydenko: I’ve been listening very carefully today’s address of our president. And he was very concrete on the fact that Ukraine can bring more to the European Union and to make it stronger so the European Union can also be able to provide security guarantees and other measures to prevent from others’ invasion or worse. And I think that we need to be focused on, of course, we are very focused on our economy and on being more self-sufficient. And it was a goal that we announced last year. So we put like five steps to be more self-sufficient because we understand that because of geopolitical risks and because of that stage, we are right now staying.

Hadley Gamble: But if the US isn’t going to help pay and Europe is in decline, who’s going to foot the bill?

Yuliia Svyrydenko: I would say that, just for your understanding, all macro-financial aid that goes from abroad are covering the social expenditures in Ukraine. Everything related to war situation, I mean, ammunition, weaponry, salary to our soldiers, we covered by our own budget. I mean, by taxes of Ukrainian companies and the revenues that we got from expert operation or revenues from the state-owned company operation. So it means that we need to incentivize the production within the country and to survive the consumption within the country. And that’s why we are very focused on development on defense sector. And I think that all European countries right now reconsidering their strategy on defense and security. And everybody understand that the production capacity that Europe has is not enough to protect the self or give the confidence. I would repeat it once again. And so that’s why I think that we would be able to increase the production within the country. It’s one way, but of course, we will see how we can support Europe and Europe in such a way can support Ukraine. Because I think that our common goal should be how to make European Union more self-sufficient in many senses. In economic and political sense, we need, I would say, I would talk like a Trumpist right now to make European Union great again. But it’s true. But it’s true. And in financial sense, I just want to reassure you that we are rather confident this year because we set as one of the goal how we can get the self-sufficiency. It’s like energy production and defense production. And one of the step, it was getting frozen Russian assets.

Hadley Gamble: Where are you in that process?

Yuliia Svyrydenko: So we have that. Confirmation for 50 billion loan Like that would be covered by frozen Russian assets for now. I would say in our budget. We have around five so it means that we have source for for reconstruction and for starting reconstruction and that’s why in in financial sense, I would say that we are rather Stable and confident but Of course we did the increasing of the Texas last year and economic sense I just want to give you the numbers of personally a year of large-scale innovation. We drop up to 30% of GDP last so 2023 we grew 5% and last year’s 3.6. So we are also Something I look at your listen to your KPI you should put in your KPI some security guarantee You’re good in the getting your KPI. So I think that you can be very helpful. I’ll listen to you. I think

Hadley Gamble: Minister I want to ask you specifically Minister Omari about Those frozen Russian assets. Does it bother you that? Countries can seize assets and then decide it will to distribute them

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: The when we look at Total risks global risks I’ll take you back at the to the left risk report that has been issued six days ago and The risk report that has been issued six days ago by the wealth I was looking into it just two days ago to see the major risk on the economy and You know what there was nothing The Economic risks are even an economic downturn, which is I think number 15 High inflation rate will be 20 Top very down on the list top 10. There’s nothing on the economy What’s on the economy is focused on it says climate change severe the climate issues that might hit the planet Earth. So you’re worried more about climate issues than frozen assets? Well, we are in the session of a wake-up call for cooperation. I think the UAE plays a big role in the COP28, in the climate agenda and in the green growth agenda. The world needs to understand that there is a huge opportunity. Now, when there is no economic downturn and there is no inflation, no interest rates, risks that would slow down the economies, I think there is an opportunity that this risk report says that the all-the-world economy is going to grow. And if we can go there, these growth is very important. Now, what’s the IMF prediction, not just on the UAE, 5 or 6 or 7%, but the whole globe, even Europe, is going to grow. In spite of itself? In spite of itself, it’s going to grow. There’s a positive growth there. That’s the opportunity. That’s what we’re seeing at the moment. We’re starting the year, January 2025. I think there’s a lot of, for me at least, four and a half years in the trenches, behind. I have a lot of wounds. And I think it’s good to look at, to see the world on a positive side today here in Davos. I’m looking at this risk report and saying, thank God, economic risks are not there. At least they’re not top 15. And I think that’s a great opportunity for us to really think. And by the way, the WEF risk report went from – they categorised it even on age. The youngsters, up to 70 plus, none of them saw any economic risks. That’s actually potential for the world. And I think that’s where we should look at. Climate change, severe climate, weather conditions, and we’re going to see more of that. The University of Kabbalah, LA, and the fire that’s happening there, the risks of this fire that’s happening in the dry atmosphere, the humidity. I don’t know if it’s a human made, but at the end of the day, it has a climate aspect as well of what’s happening worldwide.

Hadley Gamble: I want to ask the audience, just to weigh in on this one. Given what we heard from US President Donald Trump yesterday, how worried are you? you today about a trade war with China? Raise your hand if you’re worried about a trade war with China. No one. Nir, is this a good assessment?

Nir Bar Dea: No, I think that’s exactly the problem that we have. Meaning, in all seriousness, I think that we see the biggest problem is, we talked earlier about what the previous decades looked like. It’s been awesome. And people just assume that what they’ve experienced is gonna be the same thing going forward. We see a lot more risks.

Hadley Gamble: Do you see a trade war?

Nir Bar Dea: We definitely see a world where aspects of a trade war. So I think Trump means what he says when he talks about terrorists. I think he means what he says when he talks about even Panama, I think, and others as well. I mean, I think China means what they say when they’re saying, hey, we’re not gonna stand by and watch these things happen. I think technology’s gonna disrupt and dislocate many jobs. We look forward and we see a lot of uncertainty and it’s interesting, because when you ask the audience or when the minister speaks, it makes sense. It’s what a lot of people kind of are geared towards. You also look at asset prices in the US and there’s zero risk premiums priced in. So it means everybody is basically thinking it’s gonna be even more awesome in the next decade than it was in the previous decade. Now, it’s not an impossibility. It could happen. But it’s priced to have an uncertainty, 100%. This is what’s gonna happen going forward. We see that as incredibly unlikely. We talked about the deficit earlier. All these things are gonna, people know it’s a big deal. They know something’s gonna happen. They don’t know exactly how and what. We think that has to be taken into consideration as much more risk going to the next decade than there was in the previous one. And we just all have a bias to assume that we’re gonna keep being in the environment that we’ve been to until this point.

Hadley Gamble: So Ray has recently said that the UK is in danger of going into a debt death spiral, given the US deficit. Is that a bit of the pot calling the kettle black?

Nir Bar Dea: No, I think Ray has. also criticism, or not criticism, has also advice to how the U.S. should be managing its deficit. I think he has views around how, what kind of cuts should be done in the U.S., and he has views about what would happen if the U.S. doesn’t deal with the deficit. So I think he’s as critical about the U.S. as he has, and these are, this is not personal. This is about studying history over and over again and seeing what happened in similar economies that have run into similar issues. Every time, we just have the memory of our lifetime, but these things are happening over and over and over again, and we keep making the same mistakes.

Hadley Gamble: What’s your outlook today on the regulators? How will that change under Donald Trump?

Nir Bar Dea: I mean, the environment, again, I think, you said it earlier, I think he means what he says, and I think the focus on within the U.S. It’s funny, because when you think about the U.S. as a participant in the global markets, they’re gonna be very activist. When it’s talking about internal regulation, I think they mean what they say, of deregulate. There’s certainly an environment, when you walk here in Davos, whether people voted for Biden or for Trump, there’s a consensus of, in the short term, this is a more business-friendly environment, less regulatory, less heavy, and I think that’s the way it’s gonna play out.

Hadley Gamble: Nader, you’re half-dangerous. Tell us all about Greenland. Are you worried that there’ll be an invasion?

Nader Mousavizadeh: Well, I think, before speaking to Greenland, which I will, Hadley, I think it’s really important for this moment for global businesses. This is a kind of signal from noise moment, and it’s very much a moment to understand that really a lot more is possible by way of scenarios across the continuum, and that has everything to do with the fact that the structural effect, both of the geopolitical fragmentation and governments intervening much more. The big change was in the United States under Biden was the IRA, and the decision by this administration to say there’s a huge role for the government to play, primarily through tax credits, not just in addressing competition with China, but addressing resilience, addressing equity, what they thought, and certainly addressing the opportunity for the United States to be a leader in this going forward. These are very. new historical shifts, certainly relative to the economy of the last 30 years. And so there’s a lot that can go wrong in governments intervening much more. There’s a lot that can go wrong in this fragmentation, having, you know, occasional routes this way and that. And certainly there’s a lot that can go wrong where you have a situation where the United States, again, the designer of globalization, the chief beneficiary of globalization, meaning now to undo so much of it and start with, starting with its closest allies. So turning to a country like Denmark, founding member of NATO, largest loss of life per capita among its soldiers in Afghanistan compared to any other country despite the United States, and finds itself what it thought to be a joke now being a dead serious challenge to what has been for a very long time, and you can argue, of course, it’s some kind of colonialism historically, but self-rule by the Greenlandic population under Danish sovereignty. And I think what we’re seeing is that this is another aspect of the world we’re entering is a lot of conventions and norms, a lot of which were not necessarily good for the global economy, not good for disruption, not good for innovation, but a lot of norms and conventions we may start missing or going out the window. So for example, simply to say, I kind of like Greenland, it’s good kind of real estate play and there’s some security geopolitical aspects to it with Russia and China, but to go so hard at an ally and basically now put a very difficult onus on the Danish government to justify why it should have its rules. So where does it end? Again, anything is possible. The Danes are hoping they can play this out, that, you know, attention may go elsewhere, but it’s entirely possible that the Greenlandic people decide to have a referendum, that that referendum goes in favor of independence. And again, this is not geopolitically or globally a significant event. What is significant, I think, is the precedent of it, and that we shouldn’t lose sight of.

Hadley Gamble: Your Excellency, when you take a step back and you look at the region, at the Gulf Arab countries, is Donald Trump good for the Gulf?

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: I think when you look at the Gulf and region, have a very strong relationship with the United States for the last 50 years. Even us, we’ve been working with the United States. We have over $40 billion worth of trade coming in. We’re the number one partner for the U.S. in trade for the region, and I think we’re we’re going to go, what we want for the next 50 years is we want more growth. Now, the region has a very strong relationship as well. The Sultanate of Oman and the Kingdom of Bahrain has direct free trade agreements with the United States. We do have a huge, as well, growth happening in the last five years or four years, not considering the COVID year, but these years have been a very strong growth for the GCC country, and I think that’s what will reflect even more and more where we’d like, as well, to see that growth happening further. Now, what we want in the region, we want more peace, and we want more stability, and we want more growth for the region, and that’s where our leadership, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, is focused on, is to keep that kind of peace happening and stability happening and opportunity for youth. Let’s go to 2016. When the UAE, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rajed, announced the probe to Mars, right, what did he call it? He called it the Arab hope, the hope mission. And why is it hope, and why is it Arab hope? He wanted to create hope for the youth of the region, that there is a nation in the region that focuses on science and technology and really pushes further these buttons forward. And this is where we are at the moment, and the UAE will really focus on this to create that kind of hope, as well, for the region and, as well, create opportunities. I am tasked at the moment to focus on space cluster, economic space cluster, focusing on diversifying my economy towards space. That’s something which is very interesting for us. We want to push for that. I have about 50 companies of space in the UAE. I want to grow that.

Hadley Gamble: Do you anticipate working with the United States to go to Mars?

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: Of course. Of course. I would like to – there’s the Florida space in Florida I would like to visit to understand how can we actually grow a bridge together in the space industry, in the space cluster, especially with the United States on that. And this is an area where there is technology, there is science, there is innovation, there is a lot of things that’s happening around space. Now, going to Mars or going to the moon – I don’t know if we’re going to have a life over there, but the kind of the science behind it creates what we have today, microwaves, you know, other technologies that we’re using in our households. So the kind of overspend that’s happened from this kind of research goes back to consumers as well and helps the economy even forward.

Hadley Gamble: So Donald Trump, good for the Gulf?

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: And I think it is going back to the relationship with the United States. And I think we need to look at it from a macro level, a level where it’s, we have a strong relationship and we want that strong relationship to even go forward, you know, with Trump.

Hadley Gamble: Yeah. Nir, how worried are you when you look at the end of the commodity super cycle in China and the slowing growth of China and a Beijing that has not at least so far come forth with a plan to get their economy back on track, which was what had been anticipated?

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: A question for me?

Nir Bar Dea: I mean, I’m not.

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: I can answer that.

Nir Bar Dea: I know. I mean, I’m not, I’m not, worry is the wrong word. We are indifferent at Bridgewater. We try to understand what is going on and then we can make our outlook in either direction. So to us, it’s much more just about objectively understanding what’s going on. And I’d say two things. I mean, the question of in this world that we’ve kind of described in this conversation, the rise of China, I think the long-term role of China as a part of any investor’s portfolio is actually clearer than ever in a lot of ways, again, put your opinions aside. If you’re saying what I need is to have geographic diversification because everything got really concentrated in the US over the last 15 years, 75 cents of every dollar that went into equities went into equities in the US. So China makes a lot of sense. If you look at places that diversify from an economic environment perspective. So China is in an easing cycle if they choose to do as you kind of suggested. suggested the US is in a tightening cycle. So you’re saying, okay, I don’t wanna just have bias to disinflationary pro-growth environments. It makes a lot of sense to anybody trying to balance a portfolio to actually say, how do I get exposure to China? By the way, the UAE has been very smart and deliberate about doing that consistently and kind of constructing their portfolio in ways that make a lot of sense. Then there’s questions within the Chinese economy of are they gonna take the steps? They have the tools, they have the means, the roadmap is kind of pretty clear to stimulate their economy. It’s anyone’s guess. I agree that if they won’t, they will keep going through what we call an ugly de-leveraging, which is going through all the pains of austerity versus stimulating the economy, stimulating the demand side of the economy in order to kind of create the prosperity. In either case, China has a very, very important role. And let me say one last thing about that. I wouldn’t say that about every area. We talked about Europe as an example earlier. When we look at kind of where the world is headed, China has clear advantages that gives it a big space in anybody’s mind. There are places like Europe that are structurally disadvantaged. They are getting out-competed by the US in innovation. They’re getting out-competed in manufacturing by China. They have a governance problem. It’s not easy to make big. So in China, they can make a decision tomorrow. We’re gonna ease. In Europe, it’s a lot harder to make big decisions. So you’re not only disadvantaged, you also have the governance problem. It just shows kind of how divergent the conditions are, US, Europe, China, Japan, and how every one of us has to be looking at the world through that lens kind of going forward.

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: Can I jump in?

Hadley Gamble: Yeah.

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: You have a good answer. I’ll answer this as well differently. I wanna pitch and say that when you look at the economic complexity of China exports, these are the KPI that economists looks at, the complexity of export. How complex is your export product? China is one of the top. China doesn’t have an external problem. China has an internal problem. And let’s differentiate between internal issues with commodities and prices and real estate problem. China has a real estate problem. They do not have an export problem. With their export complexity, they are very strong. They are one of the top in exporting everything. Now, when you look at it on GDP per capita, when you put the export complexity of China, but on GDP per capita, it’s very low, given the diversity, given the land size, given the population. It’s one of the low. But what does it say? It says that there’s a lot of opportunities for China, prosperity, people of China, to really prosper and grow because their economic complexity of their exports is so high and their productivity is even higher. That’s an economy which is very strong. Now, when it comes to prosperity and GDP per capita, not GDP, total GDP, but per capita, they’re very low. But there’s an opportunity. This action is going to catch up. And if it catches up, China will not have a problem. They’re going to be strong. But they have at the moment kind of wait and see. They had a stimulus programme to stimulate the entire China economy. They’re waiting to see how that stimulation is going to work in effect. But I think they’re going to come back again and it may be stimulated more. But this is an internal China economic problem. It will not affect the world. The slowdown will not affect the world. They will still export complex products. They will still export to the world and they will still push for that.

Hadley Gamble: Do you anticipate the China-UAE relationship will be a flashpoint again for the Trump administration?

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: Well, we have $80 billion worth of trade between us and China. China is one of the top trading with us, but not with us totally. We export and re-export China products as well to the world. Now, the movement that’s happening as well, this is something which is important. That complexity of export is needed. Now, with, you say, we don’t get from China, where is the inflation rate going to happen? There’s a lot of inflation that will really hit consumers globally, UAE, region and the world. You cannot say, I need the world without China. And you cannot have the world without China. Let’s be clear on that. You need China in the kind of trade domain, and you need to really focus on the kind of export complexity marker of their export. And that’s something nobody looks at. We look at it, and we see how important to complex your export. Are you exporting five products, six products, seven products? Or are you exporting thousands, and how important it is for consumers and consumptions around the world? That’s the kind of narrative we need to be speaking about.

Hadley Gamble: I want to weigh in on this just briefly, because I was speaking with Joe Kaeser last week in Saudi Arabia, and he was saying to me, well, the whole world isn’t China. More is happening. What’s your take?

Nader Mousavizadeh: Well, I think the first thing absolutely to underscore is that when it comes to advanced manufacturing and robotics and the application of AI in advanced manufacturing, the Chinese are doing phenomenally well, and probably better than anywhere else in the world, including the United States. We haven’t talked much about AI, but I think I would emphasize for the topic of this conversation, and really that captures a lot of what we’re talking about in terms of government intervention and geopolitics, two really important things are happening around AI right now. One is that there is a growing nexus around the AI energy infrastructure combination there, where you’re seeing new opportunities, new investments, and new partnerships happening, both globally but particularly around data centers and the like. But the second aspect about the AI question which is important and speaks to what we’re talking about is exemplified in what was announced last week by the Biden administration in their AI diffusion framework. And basically what they did there was to say that when it comes to the export of high-end chips, we’re dividing the world in three. The United States is going to divide the world in three. Eighteen countries that can import all they want, a bunch of countries that will never be able to import any of these high-end chips, and everyone else in the middle. And I think what that tells you is that we have geopolitical competition at the top. This is all about our competing China in terms of where the AI frontier is. Then you have government intervention, and then you have, and we’re going to see I think both from the Trump administration but also also certainly countries like UAE, which will be able to position themselves as the kind of partners that are both responsible at home and responsible globally, so that they can be part of this advanced manufacturing. But right now, it’s also an example of where the outperformance of the US economy and US companies at the frontier AI, overlaid with a new Trump bullishness on this, overlaid with the view that the United States can have this chokehold on the global economy, that tells you a lot about where the global economy is going to go forward.

Hadley Gamble: It’s interesting, isn’t it? Because just to take it from macro to micro, yesterday when the president was signing his executive orders, he was pausing on the order on TikTok. There’s a Russian proverb that says, and I’m sure you know it, which is, if you muddy the waters, then you’ll find some fish. And that does seem to speak to his doctrine, at least for the first administration, and as we’ve been discussing, most likely for the second. Are you anticipating that the US is going to get a chunk of TikTok?

Nader Mousavizadeh: I think this will settle not where we are now, and not with a total ban. So I think where the exact transaction ends up, I think, is unclear. I think the bulk of the US national security establishment, including a lot of the people who are coming in with Donald Trump, have very substantial concerns about TikTok from a US national security perspective. But you also have 107 million users. And a very important source of business and economic growth. So I think it will land somewhere in the middle. But I think that’s the kind of transaction that, in the kind of Trump approach to Xi on his phone call, Trump going to Beijing, becomes much more possible than you would have imagined a month ago or a year ago.

Hadley Gamble: Deputy Prime Minister, just looking at the Ukrainian economy, I’ve spent a good deal of time in Ukraine. I’ve spent a lot of time in Russia. And I would love to ask you to just give us an assessment of the corruption in Ukraine today. Where are we? How much has been cleaned up?

Yuliia Svyrydenko: I think that we have progressed a lot during the last three years. And you know, at the beginning of the 90s, there was a few oligarchs that owned, I would say, sectors, not only enterprises. And during these last three years, actually, maybe it would sound very vocal. But our president, you know, he put a number one task for himself to beat the corruption and to fight with the oligarchs. And you might see that now on Ukrainian markets, so actually, the power less and less and less. And a few of them are just out, just flee from the country and just leave all their assets and left. So I think it’s important. And also, if you might look at the index, so we have increased incredibly in the list of the countries that have the risk for corruption. I will give you the correct name. But actually, I think that we are following all the requirements. from US side, EU side, in terms of corruption and anti-corruption, in terms of judicial reform, in terms of economic reforms. And during the last year, I can tell you definitely that we have implemented all requirements that we have. And if you look at them, it calls in Ukraine matrix of reform. We are trying to combine all the requirements from the partners in all areas and in one document. So if you look at the matrix of reform, so last year we implement around 200 indicators. So 200 indicators in different areas, because we understand that we need and we want to be the part of EU. It’s our irreversible way. We see ourself as a part of EU, and we need to go this path. Also, we understand perfectly well that we need to improve our business environment, because we need to reconstruct the country. And it should be reconstructed on the new basis. It was a moment of new technology and green transition. So we understand that we need to improve this business environment. And oligarchy is one of the characteristics of the former Ukrainian economy. So now I would say that it’s absolutely different ecosystem on the ground. And I think that we are, as I said, doing our homework. Of course, there are a lot of things that need to be improved, that’s for sure. But I think that now we keep fighting and working and implementing reforms. And our main task, of course, is to get settlement or to end this war, active phase of the war. Because when I’m listening to the risks that globally companies or populations see, and there is no war, for me, it’s very strange. Because I think that you’re absolutely right. When you see about the long-term perspective, anyway, you need to bring peace to the region, and you need to bring safety. And you have, if you have the war, the one of the continent, so actually it has like butterfly effect. I remember perfectly well that at the beginning of large-scale invasion, some countries in Africa just recognized that they have been receiving the wheat from Ukraine because the price become like $450 per ton. So it was one shocked. Another was a fresh example, it was covered by Bloomberg when Russia attacks underground storages of gas. So it also caused the increasing of the price on the European market. So that’s why I don’t believe in the least, where there is no war risks and there is climate change as a risk. Because I, you know, Ukraine seems to be the most contaminated country in the world because of the mines. Yes, because of the mine situation. And we have like 30% of our territory is full of mines and we need to clear during the decades. And so that’s why for me, I think that what is the most important, globally. Because yes, I agree that it’s a period of turbulence and we are witnessing this turbulence. I think that last time we saw it after the World War II. But we need to be focused on not bringing peace and stability to all regions and I think it’s the main priority.

Hadley Gamble: Deputy Prime Minister, it is no doubt that President Zelenskyy has done an amazing job in keeping Ukraine in the headlines, in spite of the fact that most of the world has a very, very short attention span. But do you believe that President Zelenskyy has a place in a post-war Ukraine?

Yuliia Svyrydenko: I think it’s better to ask him on that. But he’s definitely a person that changed the global order, even now, when the war is not ending. And of course it depends on him and on the… ended of the war, because there was many discussion on the second term of his presidency. So I think that it’s something that he should answer to himself.

Hadley Gamble: I would be happy to talk to him any time. Ladies and gentlemen, unfortunately, we are out of time. But I just wanted to take one moment to ask the panelists to just do a round robin. We’re talking about someone who changed the world. Donald Trump, presumably, is going to change the world again, given what we heard yesterday. Nader, if you want to kick off briefly, just giving me an assessment of, are you positive or negative in this outlook for the next four years?

Nader Mousavizadeh: I think there’s every reason to be cautiously optimistic. I think there are a lot of tailwinds with the global economy. I think the inheritance that Trump has, both in terms of the US economy, as well as a number of these geopolitical crises, be in the Middle East, be in Russia, Ukraine, even in East Asia. I think there is every reason to believe that this actually can be a positive environment. Not a reason to be complacent, not a reason to think that things can’t go wrong, or markets can’t correct, or debts don’t matter. But I think the inheritance is actually very strong. And stewarded in the correct way, I think we can be optimistic.

Hadley Gamble: Nader, are you bullish on Donald Trump?

Nir Bar Dea: Neither. I mean, as I said, I think if we embrace the change that’s happening, it could be great. Because that change would lead areas to be more competitive that’s been complacent. We talked about some of them here. It would lead to resolution in some of the global conflicts. If we don’t embrace the change that’s happening, and we keep driving the world looking backwards, I think it could be really tough, really fast. And it will teach our generation that hasn’t. I mean, I’m from Israel. There’s Ukraine. There’s pockets of populations that have gone through adversity, but much of the world has not in our generation. It’s been just a great period. We might bring upon ourselves the first real period of adversity if we don’t embrace this change and really try to shift what we do in order to handle it well.

Hadley Gamble: Excellency, excited about the next four years?

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: I think I’m very excited and very positive. You’re talking to a tribesman, a man from the desert. 50 years ago in the UAE, we had nothing, right? No Burj Khalifa, no Emirates A09, no DP World, nothing. And today, we live in scarcity. percent of our food are imported. We desalinate the sea to drink water. So we’re talking to the wrong man. We see opportunities in everything to transform the world that we live in, and that’s where we are coming from. His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, the leader of Dubai, and His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the lead president of the UAE, these are tribesmen who have the ethnicity, the ethical aspects of to find opportunity from deserts to the world, and we are full of abundance to the world, that we give the world so much things that we don’t have. We don’t live on lakes. We don’t live on gushing rivers. We desalinate the water. We cannot grow. Ninety-five percent of our food are imported, but we can create opportunities. That’s the opportunity. So when you ask me about positivity, of course I’m positive. If you asked me last year, I would say, yeah, I’m still positive, that we are still going forward and the world is great.

Hadley Gamble: Deputy Prime Minister, is Donald Trump good for the world?

Yuliia Svyrydenko: I have the most complicated question from you.

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri: I can help you.

Yuliia Svyrydenko: It’s because we’re women. I know that you can answer all questions that we have today, but I think that the Trump administration or President Trump would be very efficient if he really can end up a war in Ukraine, and I think that for me it’s one of the criteria, keep that for myself, of his efficiency. Sorry for that, but he also has some promises. He gave it publicly. But in general, I would say that Ukraine is very optimistic if we would be able to end up this war during this year, and I just want to repeat, but sorry, it’s our pain, and we’ll be able to get some guarantees. So we’re very optimistic as a nation. You might see that we’re showing resilience, and it comes from many places, and Ukrainian business are extremely resilient, extremely innovative, and they’re looking for hope in the darkest time. I gave one example of, just a very short example, but it’s a business that are growing flowers near Kiev region, and during the large-scale invasion, first day, so the village have been occupied and owners have been fleeing from the country. And people in this village, they have been hiding in these greenhouses. And when the owners returned back, they were surprised that the people that was hiding in this greenhouse, they found a relief in taking care of these roses. Can you imagine, just under the bombs, under drones attacks and missiles attacks, so they have been taking care of all these roses. And for me, it’s an example of resilience and hope, and you asked me about Trump. So you look at Ukrainian business and our people, and this is just one story, and another one, it’s a publishing house that have been destroyed six months ago, and now they restored, and yesterday I gave a notebook that have been published there, and there are 100 stories. So that’s why, in general, we are very optimistic. Of course, we want from Trump to be more helpful, that’s for sure, and China as well, because you’re absolutely right that it’s impossible to say there is no China during the negotiation, because even for Ukraine, it’s the biggest trade partner. So that’s why it will be a challenging time, and I would say that this year will be historical, I absolutely believe in it and feel it inside, but we are rather optimistic. I like this, cautiously optimistic.

Hadley Gamble: Your Excellencies, gentlemen, ladies and gentlemen, thank you so much. Thank you.

Agreement Points

Global economic shift and changing dynamics

speakers

– Nir Bar Dea
– Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri
– Nader Mousavizadeh

arguments

Shift from globalization to government intervention and fragmentation

Opportunity for growth despite geopolitical risks

Cautious optimism about global economy with some tailwinds

summary

The speakers agree that there is a significant shift in global economic dynamics, moving away from globalization towards more government intervention. Despite this change and geopolitical risks, they see opportunities for growth and express cautious optimism about the global economy.

Importance of China in the global economy

speakers

– Nir Bar Dea
– Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri

arguments

China’s importance in portfolio diversification

China’s economic complexity and export strength

Need for China in global trade and manufacturing

summary

Both speakers emphasize the crucial role of China in the global economy, highlighting its importance for investment diversification, its export strength, and its indispensable position in global trade and manufacturing.

Similar Viewpoints

Both speakers suggest that a potential second Trump administration could lead to a more business-friendly environment in the US and potentially positive economic outcomes, given the strong economic inheritance.

speakers

– Nir Bar Dea
– Nader Mousavizadeh

arguments

More business-friendly, deregulatory environment in the US

Strong economic inheritance that could lead to positive outcomes

Both speakers express a cautiously optimistic outlook for the global economy, while emphasizing the importance of addressing geopolitical risks and achieving stability, particularly in relation to the war in Ukraine.

speakers

– Yuliia Svyrydenko
– Nader Mousavizadeh

arguments

Need for peace and stability to address global risks

Cautious optimism about global economy with some tailwinds

Unexpected Consensus

Positive outlook on global economic prospects

speakers

– Nir Bar Dea
– Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri
– Yuliia Svyrydenko
– Nader Mousavizadeh

arguments

Potential for resolving global conflicts if change is embraced

Optimism about future growth and opportunities

Resilience of Ukrainian businesses despite war

Cautious optimism about global economy with some tailwinds

explanation

Despite representing different countries and facing various challenges, all speakers expressed a surprisingly positive outlook on global economic prospects. This unexpected consensus suggests a shared belief in the resilience and adaptability of economies worldwide, even in the face of significant geopolitical and economic challenges.

Overall Assessment

Summary

The main areas of agreement among the speakers include the recognition of a significant shift in global economic dynamics, the importance of China in the global economy, and a generally optimistic outlook for future economic growth despite various challenges. There is also a shared acknowledgment of the need for adaptation to changing geopolitical and economic landscapes.

Consensus level

The level of consensus among the speakers is moderately high, particularly on broad economic trends and outlooks. This consensus implies a shared understanding of the major forces shaping the global economy, which could lead to more aligned strategies in addressing global economic challenges. However, there are some differences in emphasis and specific concerns, particularly regarding regional issues like the war in Ukraine, which suggests that while there is general agreement on the big picture, there may be divergences in how different countries or regions approach these challenges.

Different Viewpoints

Outlook on global economic risks

speakers

– Nir Bar Dea
– Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri

arguments

Bar Dea argues that if the world embraces the changes happening, there could be positive outcomes including resolution of global conflicts. However, he warns that failing to adapt could lead to significant challenges.

Al Marri expresses optimism about global economic growth despite geopolitical risks. He argues that the absence of major economic risks in global risk assessments presents an opportunity for growth.

summary

While both speakers express some optimism, Bar Dea emphasizes potential challenges and the need for adaptation, while Al Marri focuses more on opportunities and positive growth prospects.

Perception of China’s role in the global economy

speakers

– Nir Bar Dea
– Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri

arguments

Bar Dea emphasizes the importance of China in investment portfolios for geographic diversification. He argues that China offers opportunities for diversification from the US-centric investments of recent years.

Al Marri highlights China’s strong position in terms of economic complexity and export strength. He argues that China’s internal economic issues do not negate its global export prowess.

summary

While both speakers recognize China’s importance, Bar Dea focuses on China’s role in investment diversification, while Al Marri emphasizes China’s export strength and economic complexity.

Unexpected Differences

Perception of global risks

speakers

– Yuliia Svyrydenko
– Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri

arguments

Svyrydenko emphasizes the importance of peace and stability, particularly ending the war in Ukraine, as crucial for addressing global risks. She argues that the war has far-reaching effects on global economy and security.

Al Marri expresses optimism about global economic growth despite geopolitical risks. He argues that the absence of major economic risks in global risk assessments presents an opportunity for growth.

explanation

The unexpected difference lies in their perception of global risks. While Svyrydenko emphasizes the war in Ukraine as a major global risk affecting the economy and security, Al Marri seems to downplay geopolitical risks and focuses on economic opportunities. This difference is significant given the global impact of the Ukraine conflict.

Overall Assessment

summary

The main areas of disagreement revolve around the perception of global economic risks, China’s role in the global economy, and the impact of geopolitical events on economic prospects. There are also differences in the level of optimism about future economic growth and the emphasis placed on various factors affecting the global economy.

difference_level

The level of disagreement among the speakers is moderate. While there are clear differences in perspectives, particularly regarding risk assessment and economic outlook, there are also areas of partial agreement. These differences reflect the complex and multifaceted nature of global economic issues, with each speaker bringing insights from their specific context and experience. The implications of these disagreements suggest that policymakers and business leaders need to consider a range of perspectives when making decisions about global economic issues, particularly in relation to geopolitical risks, investment strategies, and international trade relationships.

Partial Agreements

Both speakers express cautious optimism about the global economy but emphasize different aspects. Bar Dea focuses on embracing change and adaptation, while Mousavizadeh highlights the strong economic inheritance and potential for positive outcomes if managed correctly.

speakers

– Nir Bar Dea
– Nader Mousavizadeh

arguments

Bar Dea argues that if the world embraces the changes happening, there could be positive outcomes including resolution of global conflicts. However, he warns that failing to adapt could lead to significant challenges.

Mousavizadeh expresses cautious optimism about the global economy, citing several positive factors. However, he also warns against complacency and ignoring potential risks.

Similar Viewpoints

Both speakers suggest that a potential second Trump administration could lead to a more business-friendly environment in the US and potentially positive economic outcomes, given the strong economic inheritance.

speakers

– Nir Bar Dea
– Nader Mousavizadeh

arguments

More business-friendly, deregulatory environment in the US

Strong economic inheritance that could lead to positive outcomes

Both speakers express a cautiously optimistic outlook for the global economy, while emphasizing the importance of addressing geopolitical risks and achieving stability, particularly in relation to the war in Ukraine.

speakers

– Yuliia Svyrydenko
– Nader Mousavizadeh

arguments

Need for peace and stability to address global risks

Cautious optimism about global economy with some tailwinds

Key Takeaways

The global economy is shifting from globalization to increased government intervention and geopolitical fragmentation

There is cautious optimism about global economic growth despite geopolitical risks

Donald Trump’s potential second term could bring a more business-friendly environment in the US but also geopolitical uncertainties

China remains a crucial player in the global economy despite tensions with the US

Ukraine has made progress on reforms and fighting corruption but still needs security guarantees to attract investment

The UAE is focused on economic diversification and innovation, maintaining strong trade relationships with both the US and China

Resolutions and Action Items

None identified

Unresolved Issues

How to provide security guarantees for Ukraine to attract foreign investment

The future of US-China trade relations under a potential Trump administration

How to address mounting deficits and potential debt issues in major economies

The role of Europe in the changing global economic landscape

How to balance economic growth with climate change mitigation efforts

Suggested Compromises

Finding a middle ground on regulating TikTok in the US rather than a total ban

Balancing the need for global trade and manufacturing with China while addressing national security concerns

We’re coming off of decades of relative stability… But that has been shifting. It has been shifting because a couple things happened. One, while this created a lot of benefits and the kind of disinflationary pressures, it also created tremendous gains that were distributed very unequally in the world.

speaker

Nir Bar Dea

reason

This comment provides important historical context and identifies a key driver of current geopolitical shifts – inequality resulting from globalization.

impact

It framed much of the subsequent discussion around changing global dynamics and the rise of populism/nationalism.

I think that we need to incentivize the production within the country and to survive the consumption within the country. And that’s why we are very focused on development on defense sector.

speaker

Yuliia Svyrydenko

reason

This highlights how the war is reshaping Ukraine’s economic priorities and strategy in a significant way.

impact

It shifted the conversation to focus more specifically on Ukraine’s economic situation and needs.

We see a lot more risks… We definitely see a world where aspects of a trade war. So I think Trump means what he says when he talks about terrorists.

speaker

Nir Bar Dea

reason

This comment challenges the prevailing optimism in the room and warns of significant economic risks ahead.

impact

It injected a note of caution into the discussion and prompted more nuanced consideration of potential downsides.

China doesn’t have an external problem. China has an internal problem. And let’s differentiate between internal issues with commodities and prices and real estate problem. China has a real estate problem. They do not have an export problem.

speaker

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri

reason

This provides an insightful and nuanced perspective on China’s economic challenges, countering some prevailing narratives.

impact

It deepened the discussion around China’s economic situation and global role.

Overall Assessment

These key comments shaped the discussion by providing historical context for current geopolitical shifts, highlighting specific economic challenges and strategies (particularly for Ukraine and China), and injecting a note of caution about future risks. They helped move the conversation beyond surface-level analysis to consider deeper structural factors and potential future scenarios. The diversity of perspectives represented – from Ukraine, the UAE, and global investment – also enriched the dialogue by providing multiple lenses through which to view global economic dynamics.

How can businesses help provide security guarantees for Ukraine?

speaker

Yuliia Svyrydenko

explanation

She emphasized the need for businesses to be more vocal about what kind of security guarantees they need to invest in Ukraine, suggesting this could influence global policy.

What are the implications of modern mercantilism for global trade and economic policies?

speaker

Nir Bar Dea

explanation

He described a shift towards ‘modern mercantilism’ where governments are more involved in economies and worried about vulnerabilities of globalization, suggesting this trend needs further exploration.

How can Europe strengthen its position in the changing global economic landscape?

speaker

Nader Mousavizadeh

explanation

He highlighted Europe’s structural challenges and suggested the need to explore how European businesses and investors can engage with the changing global economy, particularly in relation to the U.S. and China.

What are the long-term implications of mounting U.S. deficits for the global economy?

speaker

Nir Bar Dea

explanation

He mentioned concerns about U.S. deficits and their potential impact on the dollar as a store of wealth, indicating a need for further research on this topic.

How can the UAE further develop its space economic cluster?

speaker

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri

explanation

He expressed interest in growing the UAE’s space industry and potentially collaborating with the U.S., suggesting an area for further research and development.

What are the global implications of China’s internal economic challenges?

speaker

Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri

explanation

He discussed China’s internal economic issues, particularly in real estate, and their potential global impact, indicating a need for further analysis of this situation.

How will AI development and regulation impact global economic competition?

speaker

Nader Mousavizadeh

explanation

He mentioned recent U.S. policies on AI chip exports and their implications for global competition, suggesting this as an important area for further research.