Global Risks 2025 / Davos 2025

Summary

This panel discussion at the World Economic Forum focused on global risks identified in the 2025 Global Risks Report. The report highlighted state-based armed conflict as the top short-term risk, with misinformation and extreme weather events as key medium and long-term concerns. Panelists explored various dimensions of these risks and potential mitigation strategies.

The Vice President of Nigeria emphasized the impact of armed conflicts in Africa, stressing the need for holistic solutions addressing poverty and creating opportunities for youth. Economic fragmentation emerged as a significant concern, with potential tariffs and trade disruptions posing challenges to global supply chains. The rapid advancement of AI technology was noted as both a source of optimism and risk, with cybersecurity threats identified as a major concern.

Extreme weather events were discussed as an escalating risk, with the insurance industry grappling with how to respond to increasing catastrophic events. The panel also addressed the erosion of trust in institutions and the spread of misinformation, linking these issues to growing inequality and changing patterns of social trust.

Despite the focus on risks, panelists also highlighted opportunities, particularly in Africa’s young population and the potential of AI to drive economic growth and address global challenges. The discussion concluded by acknowledging the unprecedented scale of geopolitical and technological change, emphasizing both the risks and opportunities in this new global landscape.

Keypoints

Major discussion points:

– State-based armed conflict as the top short-term global risk, especially in Africa

– Economic fragmentation and potential impacts of trade tariffs

– Rapid technological change, especially AI, and associated risks and opportunities

– Extreme weather events and climate change risks

– Erosion of trust in institutions and spread of misinformation/disinformation

The overall purpose of the discussion was to examine the top global risks identified in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2025 and explore their potential impacts, interconnections, and possible mitigation strategies. The panelists aimed to provide expert perspectives on these risks from their diverse backgrounds in government, business, academia, and media.

The tone of the discussion was initially quite sobering as the panelists discussed serious global risks and challenges. However, as the conversation progressed, the tone became more balanced and cautiously optimistic. Panelists acknowledged the significant risks but also highlighted potential opportunities, particularly related to technological innovation and Africa’s future prospects. The discussion ended on a more positive note by focusing on opportunities rather than just risks.

Speakers

– Moderator: Introduced the session

– Martina Cheung: President and CEO of S&P Global

– Gillian R. Tett: Provost of King’s College, University of Cambridge; columnist at The Financial Times

– John Doyle: President and Chief Executive Officer of Marsh McLennan

– Zanny Minton Beddoes: Editor-in-Chief of The Economist; panel moderator

– Kashim Shettima: Vice President of Nigeria

Additional speakers:

– Mark: Mentioned as having presented the Global Risks Report findings

– Audience member: Asked a question about Iran

Global Risks and Opportunities: A Comprehensive Analysis

The World Economic Forum panel discussion on the 2025 Global Risks Report provided a nuanced examination of the most pressing challenges facing the world today and in the near future. The diverse panel, comprising leaders from business, academia, media, and government, offered multifaceted perspectives on these risks and potential mitigation strategies.

State-Based Armed Conflict and Regional Instability

The discussion opened with a focus on state-based armed conflict, identified as the top short-term global risk. Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-Chief of The Economist, highlighted this as a primary concern, while Kashim Shettima, Vice President of Nigeria, provided a poignant regional perspective. Shettima emphasised the compounding effect of armed conflicts on development challenges in Africa, stating, “Beneath the mayhem of Boko Haram, underneath the nihilism of Iswap lies the real cause which is extreme poverty.” This insight shifted the conversation towards the need for holistic solutions that address root causes rather than symptoms.

Shettima advocated for a combined approach of kinetic and non-kinetic solutions, stressing the importance of gender empowerment initiatives, investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure. He argued that creating hope for youth is crucial to breaking the cycle of conflict, highlighting the potential for Africa’s demographic dividend if these challenges are addressed effectively. Notably, Shettima emphasized that Africa is not coming with a “begging bowl” but rather seeking partnerships to unlock its potential.

Geopolitical Risks and Global Conflicts

The panel also addressed broader geopolitical risks, including the potential impact of leadership changes in major powers. Shettima offered a unique perspective on Donald Trump’s potential return to power, suggesting it might paradoxically reduce global conflicts due to Trump’s tendency to focus on domestic issues. This viewpoint provided an important counterpoint to the general concerns about geopolitical instability.

An audience member raised concerns about Iran as a potential risk, highlighting the complex web of geopolitical challenges facing the world. Zanny Minton Beddoes concluded that the range of potential geopolitical outcomes is larger than in previous years, underscoring the uncertainty in the global landscape.

Economic Fragmentation and Trade Risks

The discussion then turned to the risks of economic fragmentation in an increasingly complex global economy. Martina Cheung, President and CEO of S&P Global, raised concerns about the potential impact of US tariffs on global supply chains and trade. Zanny Minton Beddoes provided a concrete example of how trade restrictions could affect seemingly unrelated sectors, noting that data centers need to be built and require components from various countries, illustrating the intricate interconnectedness of global supply chains.

Cheung emphasised the need for vigilance and flexibility in response to potential trade policy changes, highlighting the importance of adaptability in a changing global economic landscape.

Technological Change and Artificial Intelligence

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) emerged as a significant topic, with panellists exploring both its potential benefits and risks. John Doyle, President and Chief Executive Officer of Marsh McLennan, characterised AI development as both an opportunity and a risk, emphasising its potential to improve risk modelling and management across various sectors.

Martina Cheung echoed this sentiment, providing a specific prediction that AI could generate up to $15.7 trillion in GDP growth by 2030. However, the discussion also touched on the associated risks, particularly in the realm of cybersecurity. Doyle identified systemic cyber events as a major concern for economies, underscoring the need for robust security measures as AI technology continues to evolve.

Trust, Misinformation, and Societal Cohesion

Gillian R. Tett, Provost of King’s College, University of Cambridge, and columnist at The Financial Times, provided a thought-provoking anthropological perspective on the changing nature of trust in society. She described a “fundamental epistemological crisis” characterised by the collapse of vertical trust in leaders and institutions, coupled with the rise of “distributed trust” or “mass lateral level trust” among peer groups. This shift, Tett argued, has profound implications for how information is disseminated and perceived in society.

Tett referenced the Edelman survey, which showed that people are more likely to trust their peers or people like themselves rather than traditional authority figures. This change in trust dynamics has significant implications for how information spreads and how society functions.

The panel identified misinformation and disinformation as top medium-term risks, linking these issues to growing inequality and changing patterns of social trust. Tett emphasised the need for leaders to acknowledge uncertainty and “error bars” when communicating, as a means of rebuilding trust in institutions and scientific communication.

Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events

The moderator highlighted extreme weather events as the top long-term risk identified in the Global Risks Report, underscoring the escalating threat of climate change. John Doyle discussed the challenges facing the insurance industry in responding to increasing catastrophic events, emphasising the need for improved risk modelling and management strategies. He stressed the importance of learning from these events and “building back in a different way,” shifting the focus from reaction to prevention in addressing climate-related risks.

Doyle also highlighted the insurance industry’s efforts to develop more sophisticated models to assess and price climate risks, emphasizing the need for a proactive approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Gillian Tett added that the climate crisis is driving innovation and awareness, suggesting that challenges can also spur positive change and adaptation.

Opportunities Amidst Challenges

Despite the sobering nature of many risks discussed, the panel also highlighted significant opportunities. Kashim Shettima emphasised Africa’s potential as a demographic dividend and talent pool, arguing that addressing current challenges could unlock tremendous growth and development on the continent.

Martina Cheung and John Doyle both emphasised the transformative potential of AI to drive economic growth and address global challenges across various sectors. This optimism about technological innovation provided a counterbalance to the discussion of AI-related risks.

Conclusion

The panel discussion at the World Economic Forum provided a comprehensive overview of the complex and interconnected nature of global risks as identified in the 2025 Global Risks Report. While the conversation highlighted serious challenges ranging from armed conflicts and economic fragmentation to climate change and erosion of trust, it also underscored opportunities for innovation, growth, and positive change.

The diversity of perspectives represented on the panel contributed to a nuanced understanding of these issues, emphasising the need for multifaceted, collaborative approaches to addressing global risks. As the world navigates an era of unprecedented geopolitical and technological change, the insights from this discussion provide valuable guidance for policymakers, business leaders, and civil society in developing strategies to mitigate risks and capitalise on emerging opportunities.

Moderator: Thank you very much for attending our session this afternoon on global risks. So the Global Risks Report, which you may have heard, was launched last week. It’s our 20th edition. It’s one of our flagship reports at the World Economic Forum, and today we’re delighted to have a flagship panel to follow up on the flagship report. So a flagship of a flagship, which is a great way to spend the next 45 minutes. So I’m just going to give you an extremely brief overview of what the main findings of our Global Risks Report 2025 were. So we asked 900 experts and decision makers from the World Economic Forum’s networks to give their assessment of the immediate term, so 2025, the short to medium term, 2027, and the long term, 2035. And we asked them to rank the risks that they were most concerned about. When it comes to 2025, it was extremely striking to note that 23% of respondents selected state-based armed conflict as the number one risk of concern. And this is especially striking when you compare it to the results from two years ago, when this risk, state-based armed conflict, was not even in the top ten of two-year risks. To 2027, the top risk was misinformation and disinformation, same as last year. And to 2035, the top risk was extreme weather events, and in fact, 2035, the risk outlook is dominated by environmental concerns. Five out of the top 10 risks were environmental concerns. Apart from extreme weather events, we have biodiversity loss, an ecosystem collapse, critical change to our systems, natural resource shortages, and pollution. And one final interesting finding from our survey is that when we asked respondents to identify which risks were most interconnected to other risks, the one that came top was inequality. So in other words, if only we could address inequality globally, then that would help and benefit a whole host of other risks. So with that brief overview, I’m going to turn to our moderator for today, Editor-in-Chief of The Economist, Zanny Minton Beddoes.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: Thank you, Mark. Hi, everybody. It’s very great to join you again. I wish I was joining you for a more uplifting session, though. I mean, we’re talking about global risks, and this is pretty sobering reading, but it’s important. And the opinions, the collective opinions of 900 experts of the WEF are not to be taken lightly. So we have, thankfully, a very interesting panel to help us make sense of this and to, I hope, not just assess the risks, but to give us a sense of what we might do to mitigate them. And now I’m going to introduce them, not, Mr. Vice President, in protocol terms, but I’m going to go because it’s good for the pictures from the right to the left. Gillian Tett, Provost of King’s College, University of Cambridge, columnist at The Financial Times, thank you for joining us. Next to her, John Doyle, President, Chief Executive Officer of Marsh McLennan. Thank you. Martina Cheung, President and CEO of S&P Global, thank you for joining us. And last, but absolutely not least, Kashim Shettima, the Vice President of Nigeria. Thank you, Mr. President, for joining us. I’m going to start with you. I introduced you last, but I’m going to turn to you first. Thank you. The biggest risk in the short term, as you heard, state-based armed conflict. I’d like to ask you about how you see that risk from two perspectives. Firstly, on the African continent, because it strikes me that in terms of lives lost, the place where state-based armed conflict is currently having the biggest impact is actually on your continent. And we talk about awful, awful wars in other parts of the world much more. But in your continent, it’s a really, really big challenge. So if you could start there, but then broaden your lens and tell me how much you as a leader of your country worry about a world where 900 of the world’s movers and shakers say that state-based armed conflict is the biggest risk.

Kashim Shettima: Thank you so much. The worst cause that the Chinese may wish for you is for you to live in interesting times. And indeed, globally, we are living in interesting times. Armed conflicts from the crisis in Ukraine, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, to the war, the unfortunate war in Sudan, has further compounded our misery as a people. It has disrupted supply chains, exacerbated our humanitarian challenges, and threatened global peace. And as John Dawn said, every man’s death diminishes me. So never send to know the hope the bell tolls, it tolls for thee. So I believe the armed conflicts in Africa is further compounding our challenges for development. There is an insensitive relationship between economy and ecology in the African continent. Sudan, which used to be a standard-bearer for peace. and development in West Africa, in Central Africa, and the whole of Africa has become a basket case. But I believe hope springs eternal from the hearts of men. We believe that collectively, as members of the same human family, we can find solutions to our challenges. Armed conflicts goes beyond state-based conflicts. In the Sahelian region, for instance, where I hail from, Boko Haram and Iswa, are wreaking a lot of havoc. In my nation, between the year 2020 to 2024, we’re witnessing 5,000 death annually, fatalities from insurgency and banditry. Yet the people have started declining by about 43%, but then, let’s not talk about the numbers. As Dele Giowa, one of Nigeria’s foremost journalists said, one life lost in pogrom is as gruesome as millions lost in that process. So we believe concerted efforts need to be done, but hope springs eternal from the hearts of men and women. But in the Sahelian region, some of the states are almost failed states. Niger is imploding. Burkina Faso is a basket case. Mali, nothing good comes out of it. Unfortunately, we have some very infringent juntas in those regions that are impervious to human reason. But I believe nations across the African region, we have dominant nations. Nigeria, with 250 million people. has a very pivotal role to play. In the North African region, you can look at Egypt, for instance, can be a source of stability. In the Horn of Africa, with all the conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia, Ethiopia can be a force for good. In the Southern African region, South Africa can be a force for stability. But we must look inwardly for our challenges and multilateralism is key. As I said, these challenges are global and we need to fuse into one common human family to address them.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: So it’s interesting, when you lay them out, it is again a powerful reminder of just how many conflicts, both state-based and, you used the word basket case, I’m not going to, but states that are imploding into conflict. Two questions, one, how much worse can things get? And two, when you talk about multilateralism, what multilateral institutions, organizations are you looking for to help turn this around?

Kashim Shettima: When it comes to multilateralism, I’m referring to organizations like the United Nations Organization, even the World Economic Forum, and all agencies for the good of humanity should fuse into one and find solutions. But honestly, I’m an eternal optimist, but the case in nations like Niger, which even in the best of times, we’re always facing existential threats, is very, very terrible. But efforts are ongoing. Through different platforms like the ECOWAS, like the Multinational Joint Task Forces, to come up with robust solutions to the challenges facing us. But most importantly my own perspective that we shall have a holistic approach Beneath the mayhem of Boko Haram Underneath the nihilism of Iswap lies the real cause which is extreme poverty Once we adopt a kinetic and non-kinetic solution to the challenges Unless we want to engage in an endless war of attrition Military solution cannot solve our problems. We have to combine it Gender empowerment initiatives Investments in education in health care and infrastructure once we Create hope for the youth. Once we create hope for a better tomorrow This insanity and madness will evaporate because and we are we are a very young continent Do you know the average age of the Nigerian nation? It’s 16.9 So the anticipated demographic bulge and nations like Nigeria by 2050 We are supposed to surpass the United States will be the third most populous Nation on earth. Our population will hit 440 million and this anticipated demographic bulge We have the window of Transforming them into demographic dividends or they will be the demographic disaster that will consume all of us I met some Western diplomats some Some few months back in Abuja. We were chatting on the night and I told them look just 2 million Syrians Knocking on the doors of Europe. They caused Brexit They led to the emergence of problem across the Atlantic. I said, what do you say? About 50 million cocky Nigerians. They will not cross through Libya. No, they will cross through Morocco They will invade Europe English-speaking cocky swashbuckling Nigerians But there is hope for a greater tomorrow The world is acutely aware of the challenges we are facing, and the world is ready to rise to the occasion. But there was one famous quote attributed to Warren Buffet, whereby he said, don’t chase the butterflies. Fix your garden, and the butterflies will come to you. To me, Africa has the resources, has the intellect. We miss the agricultural age. We miss the industrial age. We are now in the knowledge-driven post-industrial age. And I believe digital-savvy Africans are in a unique position to drive change in the African continent. And it might interest you, Cohn-Perry, a global consultancy outfit, said that by 2035, there will be 65 million global talent deficits. The United States, Brazil, and Russia will pay 6 million talent deficits. And we are in a unique position to fill this gap.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: Well, that’s, I think, an appropriate optimism to end after your sobering beginning. But you’re right. Africa is the opportunity beyond the WEF’s short medium, but in the long term, this is really where it’s at. This is going to define, in a lot of ways, where the world goes. You are doing so in an environment, a global economy, that is becoming more fragmented. You’re going to have to focus more on trade within Africa, as we are now, unfortunately, in a world potentially of more tariffs globally. And, Martina, I was going to turn now to you on that, because one of the risks kind of throughout this report is the question of what a more economically fragmented world means. You think about this kind of stuff the whole time. The environment that all of these swashbuckling young Nigerians are going to grow up in the globalized world that Davos, you know, celebrated for so long. It’s a different kind of world with an increasing risk of fragmentation. Talk me through how you think about that and how those risks should be mitigated.

Martina Cheung: Yeah, well, it’s certainly one of the key topics of this week here as it relates to news from the US administration on direction of trade for tariffs, for example, which I think is probably going to be possibly the most noteworthy piece that could drive change around global supply chains and trade over the next several years. So, now look, I mean, you know, nobody yet has the answers. The latest that, you know, that we expect is something possibly by early April, but of course the snap decision could be made before then and obviously we don’t necessarily know what rate that’s going to look like and for what, but…

Zanny Minton Beddoes: But by it you mean, just sorry to interrupt, but do you mean a broad-based tariff or you mean…

Martina Cheung: Any of the above, any of the above, yeah. So, you know, and what we find really is, you know, our job is to try to look at, you know, the various different scenarios and the second, third and sort of fourth order effects of this stuff. The first point I would say is, you know, when our teams look back on the last round of tariffs in the first Trump administration, it took some time for that to work its way through the system and that could, depending on the level, that could be the same case here. I mean, we have noted several industry sectors that have essentially, you know, imported and accelerated imports in advance and expectation of tariffs, so it could take a minute even with tariffs coming in for it to work its way through the system. However, Mark said a word that I think was incredibly important, which is connected, and that’s where this gets very interesting in terms of trying to figure out how this is going to play out, so I’ll just give maybe two examples. The first would be, you take the automotive sector. The US imports nine times as much from an automotive standpoint from Mexico as it exports to Mexico, and so, of course, you can see there could be some challenges there for the US from an automotive standpoint. standpoint for U.S. automotive manufacturers. And supply chains don’t just change on a whim. It could be, for example, that you may be able to find individual components more easily, maybe you can source them even domestically, but to get core components and completed units, that takes quite some time. And so what we’re hearing from our automotive clients is, you know, as much interest in what a tariff could look like today as whether or not that tariff persists two years from now, five years from now, 10 years from now. And really the message that, you know, that our teams are conveying is, you know, vigilance is important, flexibility is going to be very, very important as well. The second example, just to give in this, you know, kind of reiterating this point around connectedness is, you know, we also the announcement of the huge investment in data centers from the administration in partnership with several of the large technology firms. Data centers need material for construction, they need cooling units. Cooling units may source components from different countries around the world. And a shortage of those could actually, you know, delay construction of data centers. And so, you know, I think all these things need to be taken into consideration when we actually play out the longer term impact of, you know, tariffs. And that, you know, that’s not even addressing basic questions like will there be retaliation, you know, et cetera. And so, I think, you know, you got to look at it. It’s very important, I think, to really look at it sector by sector in as much as it is to look at it at the, you know, the macro level and, you know, how certain countries or regions might react to that.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: As I was hearing you describe those data centers requiring all that equipment, I was also suddenly thinking, yes, and those data centers need to be built by someone. Indeed. Which is an interesting thought given the rest of this administration’s agenda. But can I just push you a little bit more on how you, when you’re thinking about this, how much weight are you putting to the risk of retaliation? Do you see it differentially by different countries? Do you think that… Because that’s what when it really starts getting dangerous right when you have a tit-for-tat response to tariffs now in your in the mental model that you have is it How do you make sense of this uncertainty you think if there’s a tariff as a negotiating tool? Maybe there won’t be retaliation if it’s a broad-based. What’s it called the External revenue service I think so if it’s tariff as a revenue raiser will there be retaliation like how do you? Think about that different countries more likely to less likely to yeah

Martina Cheung: I think you mentioned the word certainty, and I think uncertainty will prevail for some period of time here Look, I mean there are scenarios that our teams have looked at where you take it Europe for example could be is it possible that? You’re could be a net beneficiary for example if tariffs happen to be lower and therefore European goods are selected over Goods from countries with higher tariffs for example, and so again. I think we have to wait and see the extent to which as you say Retaliation occurs, but you know it’s gonna start with exactly how much in it or and in what direction these tariffs come and and you’ve heard 1025 60 100 in the last couple of weeks and so I think we have to give it a little bit more time here as we as we watch through it and There have been opinions that have been voiced this week that have suggested. Well. You know we think it’s really a negotiating posture I think we just need to Wait and see how how the policies come through.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: I think we all actually have no idea And but it’s it’s it’s helpful to have a framework to think about what the different Consequences might be John all of this is happening geopolitical change economic fragmentation at a time of unprecedentedly rapid technological change I was talking yesterday to on a panel to Daria Amadei who the CEO and founder of anthropic who assured me that by 2027 the AIs would be at better than human capability across every range of human intelligence. So that’s not very long away. I mean, it’s not even the medium term in the WEF.

John Doyle: Probably has an outcome or something at stake in that outcome.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: Yes, I’m sure he does. But even if he’s out by a little bit, it’s going to be pretty soon. And certainly, the improvements to date have been pretty remarkable. So tell me how you think about all of this happening at a time when we’re in the midst of this very dramatic technological transformation.

John Doyle: Sure, and you talked about this being a discussion around risks. We’ve participated with the forum in putting together this report for many years. It’s an important conversation. To be clear, I’m optimistic about our future, our collective future. There’s extraordinary innovation coming. We’ll talk about it. I’ll talk about AI in a second. But innovation in other sectors as well. Economies in some major markets are relatively healthy. Labor markets are operating relatively not everywhere in the world, of course. But in some really important economies that have collateral effects, inflation coming down, cost of capital coming down in some places that I think are good for our future. At the same time, the risks are big, the potential risks. And we just obviously talked about a couple of them. The rapid technology development is, I think, again, a source of optimism. It certainly comes with great risk. And we’re working with businesses all over the world trying to help them think through how to deploy AI into their workplaces. And so we’ll see, of course, how impactful it is by 2026 and 2027. But clearly, it will be impactful over time. And the economy, the global economy, has benefited in an extraordinary way from all the digital tools that are part of our everyday lives and our personal lives and our professional lives. And that’s led to just outstanding growth all over the world. And so there’s a lot to be celebrated. But it also comes with great risks. And what I worry about, not just where it ranks on the list up on the board, but when I think about the conversations I’ve had during the course of this week, it’s been dominated by trade discussions, geopolitical risks, and again, I’m not trying to take anything away from that. But I worry about the impact of a systemic cyber event, particularly in the context of what’s happening geopolitically. There’s state-based actors out there trying to disrupt economies all over the world. And I feel like most major economies and countries are not prepared for that type of an event. And so those are the kind of risks that concern me, Zannie.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: That’s alarming, since it’s your job to think about this.

John Doyle: Well, we help companies think it through, and we help them think about risk mitigation and steps that they can take. And then we also help them finance some of their risk into the insurance market by buying cyber insurance, which is terrific. It’s a fast-growing part of our business, and businesses are looking to us to provide that type of advice. But you play out certain systemic type of scenarios where a power grid goes down in a major economy for a period of time, for example. And we’ve seen smaller examples of risks that have happened like that. The costs can be in the trillions and trillions of dollars, and the insurance industry cannot finance those types of risks.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: Just one other risk that’s very high on here that I think you are best placed to talk to, which is the extreme weather event risk. And I think it’s undoubtedly, we’re seeing it all over the place. Are we, is your industry collectively going to be able to respond in new ways to what is clearly a predictably ongoing risk?

John Doyle: Yeah. Well, I would say that it’s not so much about insurance, it’s more about the risk, right? And so what steps do we take all over the world in. in more exposed parts of the world to catastrophic weather events. And to me, these conversations are what makes this moment so unique. There’s this extraordinary promise and opportunity around technology and innovation that’s happening in the world, yet, again, armed conflict, geopolitical risks, extreme weather, cyber events. But I’m an American. I live in New York. But what’s happening in California right now is absolutely tragic. And our hearts go out to that community. And we have 1,000 people in our company that live there. And we’re doing the best we can to support our colleagues, but also our clients that are hurting and suffering. And so we need to build better resilience into communities that, particularly more extreme exposed communities, but really all communities all over the world. And so we certainly have a lot of data in our industry and at our company that can help with that planning. It’s challenging, though, because some of the steps that need to be taken can be politically unappealing and can be quite expensive. But it’s a moment here. California has always been exposed to wildfire risk. This is an extraordinary event, will very likely be a top 10 insured catastrophe loss in the history of record keeping in our industry. There’s never been a wildfire in the top 10 before, right? So this is an extraordinary. That’s right. They’re all but for one earthquake, wind, and flood events. And so it’s an extraordinary event. Right now, the focus is on recovery. And that’s what it should be at this moment, of course. But we need to learn from this event and prepare and build back in a different way.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: Thank you. Gillian, I want to turn to you about two of the risks that are, I guess, harder to quantify but extraordinarily important. important. One is one close to my heart, disinformation and misinformation and the other is this question of underlying inequality as Mark said. I think both of those two together are compounding factors for the loss of trust, the loss of trust in institutions, the loss of trust in elites, the loss of trust by many even in democratic systems. You’ve, you know, come from, well I think half a foot of yours is still in my world of the media, but you’ve come from journalism, you’re an anthropologist as everybody knows by training and now you are provost of one of the most distinguished colleges in the UK. From all of those educator, journalist, academic perspectives, I think you’re well qualified to tell us how we start rebuilding this trust so we get those risks down. Right, well I was going to say a couple of things.

Gillian R. Tett: First of all, I love this annual survey because I find it so fascinating to see how it evolves over time, but we have to recognise that it’s biased to be gloomy because you’re asking people about what risks they’re worried about and it’s always very interesting as an anthropologist would say to look at the social silence about what’s not on this list and what’s not on this list and barely even on the other one-year list is economic downturn, which is quite remarkable, or financial crisis and if you go back 15 years, those dominated the lists, economic and financial issues. So one way of looking at that is actually we have the luxury of worrying about other things because we’re not facing an immediate dramatic recession. Another way of looking at it is to say actually given the fact that Davos consensus is usually a fantastically good contraindicator of what’s going to happen, we’re probably about to go into a massive financial crisis and recession, which will make the issue of inequality a lot worse and also I would argue the issue of misinformation, disinformation, because it’s very easy to say that what’s happening today with misinformation… and the reason why it’s top of that list is all down to two things. One is AI and the spread of social media and fakes. And the other of course is down to Donald Trump. That’s what a lot of people would say if they are progressive and they’ve been anti-Trumpian. And if they’re upset by the combination of what Graham Allison calls the facts, fictions and fantasies that mark out Donald Trump’s rhetorical style and which have become very normalized recently. First time around when he was in office, there was horror every time he told a lie and people pointed it out. Now it’s expected. Now, it’s easy to blame it on that. In fact, I think it’s much deeper. I think Donald Trump is a symptom, not a cause. And if you look at the Edelman survey, which came out on Monday, what is shocking is apart from the fact that a majority of people now feel profound grievance against elite, particularly amongst the mass public. In fact, they feel so angry that 40% now back violent resistance. And amongst the 18 to 35 year olds, I believe it’s 53% that back violent resistance. What’s even more shocking is two thirds say that business, government and the media deliberately lie to them. The elites are worried often about why the mass people don’t think the same way that they do and they put it down to disinformation. And you have a large part of the population who just do not believe leaders anymore. So we have a fundamental epistemological crisis. Why has this happened? I won’t be professorial and give you a lecture on this, but I think in a nutshell, one of the key issues is that anthropologists used to teach that there were two types of trust that glued society together. trust where you trust your peer group you know intimately on a lateral level peer-to-peer or when groups became too big you had vertical trust where you basically trusted leaders and institutions and rules. This has created a new type of trust which is mass lateral level trust so-called distributed trust and what you’re seeing in almost every area of life today is that people are trust in leaders is collapsing but trust in peer groups remain high particularly in terms of practical lived experience and the problem is that this has also taught us to think that we have a God-given right to pick a mix every aspect of our consumer existence so we pick a mix our coffee choices our food try giving everybody in a family a set meal one size fit one size fits all meal for many generations these days and good luck is all I can say people pick a mix their music choices their political choices their identities their friendship groups almost everything and we’re pick a mixing self-selecting into tribal groups who are looking to each other for advice not overarching authority figures and that is a recipe for misinformation disinformation a lack of belief and another quick point of mention to illustrate this I’ve been working with jigsaw who doing a lot of ethnographic research into what Gen Z does or does not trust and Gen Z not only trusts personalized bots more than human doctors because I would argue personalized bots are part of our online tribe they’re at the end of our fingers and they’re customized but they also read newspapers or read consume media content by essentially reading the headlines and then the comments about the article to ascertain whether it’s true or not and then the article because validity verification is done by the lateral tribe, not the authority figures. The danger of this is it’s prone to enormous manipulation, potentially, and it creates polarization. The upside, though, is that it can also create a sense of empowerment. And the other upside is that there are many reasons why people in the world today might actually want to feel angry against the elites, against us. And that is not a fiction.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: Thank you. Fascinating. Questions? I’m conscious that I want to make time for some questions, comments. What other risks would you like to add, or any perspective on the risks that you’ve heard about? Don’t be shy. I’m going to give you another chance. There. Two, three rows back.

Audience: I haven’t heard the word Iran, so I was wondering whether even you wanted to comment on this as a risk for 2025.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: I’m happy to, but I will – does anybody else want to take a view on that?

Gillian R. Tett: I would argue that Iran is really one of many potential sources of conflict going forward. I mean, you know, if you look at the 2025 league table and look at the state violence risk, I mean, there’s a very long list of countries which you could actually attach that risk to. So Iran is definitely one of them, but then it’s only one of many.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: I would perhaps – yes, Mr President.

Kashim Shettima: I think the upside of the Trump presidency is that people are not willing to give to him. People see him as irrational, as erratic, but this is an image he has deliberately created for negotiation purposes. He is much more brilliant than we are willing to give him. Yes, he’s transactional, but he has great credibility, such that the peace in the Middle East, the ceasefire in Gaza, might not be unconditional. connected with the influence of Trump. And Trump being a transactional leader, I don’t think he’s obsessed with global dominance. So it’s my permanent hope and belief that in the coming months he will find a solution or will get a solution to the crisis even in Ukraine. Because of his strict credibility and because he often calls a spade not by any other thing but his name, I believe that there are the positive sides of all negativities and the world will be ushered into an era of some civil peace, especially even the Iranian question. We will bluff, we will shout, but at the end of the day it’s just a negotiation tactics. That’s my own take on him. He’s much more brilliant than we are willing to give him.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: Thank you. Next question. Yes, Mattias.

Audience: The collapse of vertical trust, you have described it. Do you think it’s desirable to recreate it? And if so, which role should media play, social media and journalistic media?

Gillian R. Tett: Well, as somebody who obviously benefited in the past as being part of the media from vertical trust, obviously everyone who’s ever been in a position of authority would love to have vertical trust, love to have more of it. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas. However, what I would say is first of all, can we recreate it? I would argue only with great difficulty. I don’t see any easy way to recreate it anytime soon. Should we simply shun it and howl in outrage? I think not. I think we need to recognize it and work with it. And so to give you some examples of what I mean by that, I think one of the biggest problems with misinformation today, one thing that’s fueled it is the fact that leaders have forgotten the importance of what scientists call the error bar. That’s a principle in science of admitting the level of certainty with which you have reached your results and how much they could be wrong. wrong. During COVID, for entirely understandable reasons, let me stress, entirely understandable reasons, there was such a sense of panic that politicians made very dogmatic black and white statements about medical issues that were actually quite grey. And nobody actually acknowledged the error bar, that they were doing their best, but didn’t exactly know. And that, I think, just to give one example, has fostered this lack of confidence and credibility of science and experts. And I do think that if leaders want to command more credibility in future, we need to start talking very actively about that error bar and acknowledge it honestly. We need to recognise we have a lateral, you know, world of trust. We can’t just assume that people will give us credibility because we speak anymore. There are good sides. As a journalist, you know, a world of lateral communication and trust means that you can lob an idea or a call out for help into the media landscape, and suddenly you not only get lots of feedback, which richens your perspective and gives you three or four dimensions, but actually enables you to potentially foreshadow criticisms and learn more. But it requires a shift in mentality.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: Is that a question? No? Any more questions? OK, I’m going to take the remaining time we’ve got, which is to flip the question of risks, because the opposite of a risk is an opportunity. And I would like us to end – I know this is the Global Risks Report, but I think for each of you who have thought so much about the risks in your particular area, could we end by – we’ve only got just under about seven minutes left – you giving us a sense of the opportunity. And I think, Mr Vice President, I’d like to start with you because – and keep it not too extensive, because there are so many opportunities in Africa – but just give us the sense of why, despite the risks that you’ve spoken of, there is also a profound sense of opportunity. There’s three of you to do it too.

Kashim Shettima: Well, the word for crisis in the Chinese language is wei desu, wei stands for danger and desu for opportunity. Yes, we have challenges, but those challenges are also pregnant with opportunities to re-engineer our society and build back better. The crisis has given us a unique opportunity, a unique window to invest on the people, but especially on education, on gender empowerment initiatives, on smart agriculture, and leapfrog our economies into the post-industrial revolution. I don’t believe in AIDS. I believe in partnership. I would rather carry my poverty with dignity and deal with people and nations and companies on a pedestal of equality, but a master-servant relationship. I don’t come with a begging bowl. My continent is the richest in the world, and the trajectory of global growth is facing Africa, and Nigeria will make or mar that transition. So I move in with confidence, with cautious optimism, with hope for a better tomorrow. But most importantly, I believe that the youth of Africa are the drivers of change in Africa.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: You will need to drive that change yourselves. Absolutely. In a more fragmented world. Martina, you’re laying out how to think about the risks of fragmentation for your clients. What are the opportunities in this world?

Martina Cheung: I would say, and I think it connects to a number of the topics here, the potential for generative AI is, in our view, very, very significant. Our teams believe that it could generate around a half a percent of GDP growth every year over the next five to 10 years. that scale of productivity brings tremendous potential, whatever one of these risks you’re talking about. We are very encouraged, for example, with the ability to spot things like methane leaks, cap them off, reduce carbon emissions, where we see smart meters that can also reduce carbon emissions. We see the tremendous benefits in healthcare, potential for longevity. And that’s one of the areas where, I don’t know if I was in the same place as Dario. I heard him say some of the same stuff this week, but I agree with you. It’s closer, not further in general. And I think it’s a tremendous opportunity for all of us to embrace.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: Thank you, John.

John Doyle: We’re excited about AI as well and what it can mean. I’ll talk about it in the context of our own business. You know, and I try to simplify everything. We’re a big company and we advise lots of different enterprises around the world on a wide range of issues, but it will make us faster. It will make us more efficient and it will enable risk insights that we haven’t yet seen. And so we’re already seeing evidence of faster and more efficient emerge in our workplace, which is exciting. It’s not material, but it’s meaningful. And we’re learning from those experiments that we’ve been taking. And we see possibility for more scaled impact in our workplace. But back to, you asked me about catastrophic weather events, right? This technology will transform how we think about and how we model against catastrophic weather events going forward. And clearly that’s an impact. You know, there’s a lot of discussion about the insured loss when these types of events happen. Take Southern California, the likely economic impact of these events is gonna be three times or more than the insured loss. And so it has a very, very meaningful impact and these technologies will enable us to manage these risks in a better way.

Gillian R. Tett: I would simply echo that point and say the only silver lining to the cloud of extreme weather events is that it will wake more people up to climate change and hopefully unleash more innovation around ways to try and mitigate some of the weather problems. And one of the silver linings of all the misinformation and polarization and growing stress, I would argue, is that it at least is forcing us all, even or especially the elites at Davos, to recognize that we have a world of growing inequality and unless we create a more inclusive approach, these challenges are going to get worse and worse. And as I say, the only silver lining about the current sense of crisis and gloom in many parts of the world today is that at least it will wake people up.

Zanny Minton Beddoes: Thank you. I will end only by saying that this – and I agree with you, Gillian, that this report year after year, looking back at it, you really get a sense of the kind of – the pulse of the moment of what people worried about. I wish – where’s Mark? In addition to ranking the risks, you had some measure of the scale of uncertainty and impact of the outcomes. The error bar again. Because I think – the error bar again, because I think I would close by saying that I am – this, to me, compared to previous Davoses, is we are in a era where the potential range of geopolitical outcomes is fundamentally larger than it has been. And I completely agree with you that the – there is huge upside as well as risk. I think an international order that has been in existence for 80 years is now over and we’re in a whole new world and we need to – the potential range of outcomes in that world is enormous. And it’s happening, as you, Martina, and you, John, have said, at the same time as we are in the midst of an unprecedentedly enormous and unprecedentedly fast technological revolution. You put those things together and they are huge risks, but my goodness, they’re also huge opportunities. So have an error bar. That’s Gillian’s admonition and I fully agree with it. Thank you all very much indeed.

Agreement Points

State-based armed conflict as a major global risk

speakers

– Kashim Shettima
– Zanny Minton Beddoes

arguments

Armed conflicts in Africa compounding development challenges

State-based armed conflict as top short-term global risk

summary

Both speakers emphasized the significant impact of armed conflicts on global stability and development, particularly in Africa.

AI as both an opportunity and a risk

speakers

– John Doyle
– Martina Cheung

arguments

Rapid AI development as both opportunity and risk

Potential for AI to generate significant GDP growth

AI’s role in improving risk modeling and management

summary

Both speakers highlighted the potential benefits of AI in various sectors while acknowledging associated risks and the need for proper management.

Climate change and extreme weather events as major long-term risks

speakers

– Moderator
– John Doyle
– Gillian R. Tett

arguments

Extreme weather events as top long-term risk

AI’s role in improving risk modeling and management

Climate crisis driving innovation and awareness

summary

Speakers agreed on the significance of climate change and extreme weather events as major long-term risks, while also seeing potential for innovation in addressing these challenges.

Similar Viewpoints

Both speakers see AI as a transformative technology with significant potential to improve economic growth and risk management across various sectors.

speakers

– Martina Cheung
– John Doyle

arguments

Potential for AI to generate significant GDP growth

AI’s role in improving risk modeling and management

Both speakers identified opportunities arising from global challenges, with Shettima focusing on Africa’s demographic potential and Tett on innovation driven by the climate crisis.

speakers

– Kashim Shettima
– Gillian R. Tett

arguments

Africa’s potential for demographic dividend and talent pool

Climate crisis driving innovation and awareness

Unexpected Consensus

Importance of acknowledging uncertainty in leadership

speakers

– Gillian R. Tett
– Kashim Shettima

arguments

Need for leaders to acknowledge uncertainty and “error bars”

Africa’s potential for demographic dividend and talent pool

explanation

While discussing different topics, both speakers emphasized the importance of leaders being honest about uncertainties and potential for change, which is an unexpected area of agreement between an academic and a political leader.

Overall Assessment

Summary

The speakers generally agreed on the significance of global risks such as armed conflicts, climate change, and technological disruption. They also shared optimism about opportunities arising from these challenges, particularly in areas of technological innovation and demographic shifts.

Consensus level

Moderate consensus was observed among the speakers, with general agreement on major global risks and opportunities. This level of consensus suggests a shared understanding of key global challenges among diverse stakeholders, which could facilitate coordinated efforts to address these issues. However, the diversity of perspectives also highlights the complexity of these challenges and the need for multifaceted approaches.

Different Viewpoints

Approach to addressing global risks

speakers

– Kashim Shettima
– John Doyle

arguments

Armed conflicts in Africa compounding development challenges

Systemic cyber events as major concern for economies

summary

While Kashim Shettima emphasizes the need to address armed conflicts and development challenges in Africa, John Doyle focuses on the risks of systemic cyber events to global economies. This highlights different priorities in addressing global risks.

Focus on short-term vs long-term risks

speakers

– Zanny Minton Beddoes
– Moderator

arguments

State-based armed conflict as top short-term global risk

Extreme weather events as top long-term risk

summary

Zanny Minton Beddoes highlights state-based armed conflict as the top short-term risk, while the Moderator emphasizes extreme weather events as the top long-term risk. This shows a difference in focus between immediate geopolitical concerns and long-term environmental issues.

Unexpected Differences

Trust in leadership and institutions

speakers

– Gillian R. Tett
– Kashim Shettima

arguments

Collapse of vertical trust and rise of distributed trust

Africa’s potential for demographic dividend and talent pool

explanation

While Gillian Tett discusses the collapse of vertical trust and the rise of distributed trust, Kashim Shettima expresses confidence in Africa’s potential and leadership. This unexpected difference highlights contrasting views on trust in institutions and future prospects.

Overall Assessment

summary

The main areas of disagreement revolve around prioritizing different global risks, focusing on short-term versus long-term challenges, and varying perspectives on trust and leadership.

difference_level

The level of disagreement among speakers is moderate. While there are differing priorities and perspectives, there is a general consensus on the existence of significant global risks and the need for innovative solutions. These differences in viewpoints contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the complex global risk landscape, but may also present challenges in developing unified strategies to address these risks.

Partial Agreements

Both speakers agree on the potential of AI to bring significant benefits, but they differ in their focus. John Doyle emphasizes both opportunities and risks, while Martina Cheung primarily highlights the economic growth potential.

speakers

– John Doyle
– Martina Cheung

arguments

Rapid AI development as both opportunity and risk

Potential for AI to generate significant GDP growth

Similar Viewpoints

Both speakers see AI as a transformative technology with significant potential to improve economic growth and risk management across various sectors.

speakers

– Martina Cheung
– John Doyle

arguments

Potential for AI to generate significant GDP growth

AI’s role in improving risk modeling and management

Both speakers identified opportunities arising from global challenges, with Shettima focusing on Africa’s demographic potential and Tett on innovation driven by the climate crisis.

speakers

– Kashim Shettima
– Gillian R. Tett

arguments

Africa’s potential for demographic dividend and talent pool

Climate crisis driving innovation and awareness

Key Takeaways

State-based armed conflict is seen as the top short-term global risk for 2025

Economic fragmentation and potential trade barriers pose significant risks to global supply chains

Rapid AI development presents both major opportunities and risks across various sectors

There is a collapse of vertical trust and rise of distributed trust, leading to misinformation challenges

Extreme weather events are viewed as the top long-term risk, highlighting climate change concerns

Africa has significant potential for growth and development despite current challenges

Resolutions and Action Items

Need for vigilance and flexibility in response to potential trade policy changes

Importance of investing in education and empowerment initiatives in Africa

Leaders should acknowledge uncertainty and ‘error bars’ when communicating to rebuild trust

Unresolved Issues

Specific policy responses to address economic fragmentation risks

Concrete steps to mitigate systemic cyber event risks

How to effectively combat misinformation and rebuild trust in institutions

Detailed plans for addressing extreme weather risks and climate change

Suggested Compromises

Balancing AI development opportunities with associated risks

Finding ways to work within a more fragmented global economy while still pursuing cooperation

Acknowledging both the challenges and opportunities present in Africa’s development

Beneath the mayhem of Boko Haram, underneath the nihilism of Iswap lies the real cause which is extreme poverty. Once we adopt a kinetic and non-kinetic solution to the challenges, unless we want to engage in an endless war of attrition, military solution cannot solve our problems. We have to combine it with gender empowerment initiatives, investments in education, in health care and infrastructure once we create hope for the youth.

speaker

Kashim Shettima

reason

This comment provides a nuanced perspective on the root causes of conflict in Africa, moving beyond surface-level explanations to highlight systemic issues like poverty and lack of opportunity.

impact

It shifted the discussion from a focus on immediate security threats to longer-term development challenges and solutions, emphasizing the importance of holistic approaches to addressing conflict.

Data centers need material for construction, they need cooling units. Cooling units may source components from different countries around the world. And a shortage of those could actually, you know, delay construction of data centers.

speaker

Martina Cheung

reason

This comment illustrates the complex interconnectedness of global supply chains and how seemingly unrelated sectors can be impacted by trade policies.

impact

It deepened the conversation about economic fragmentation by providing a concrete example of how tariffs and trade restrictions can have far-reaching and unexpected consequences.

We need to learn from this event and prepare and build back in a different way.

speaker

John Doyle

reason

This comment highlights the importance of resilience and adaptation in the face of increasing extreme weather events, shifting the focus from reaction to prevention.

impact

It broadened the discussion on climate risks to include the need for proactive measures and long-term planning in infrastructure and community development.

We have a fundamental epistemological crisis… Anthropologists used to teach that there were two types of trust that glued society together… This has created a new type of trust which is mass lateral level trust so-called distributed trust and what you’re seeing in almost every area of life today is that people are trust in leaders is collapsing but trust in peer groups remain high particularly in terms of practical lived experience.

speaker

Gillian R. Tett

reason

This comment provides a deep anthropological perspective on the changing nature of trust in society, offering a framework for understanding current social and political dynamics.

impact

It reframed the discussion on misinformation and distrust, moving it beyond surface-level explanations to explore fundamental shifts in how people relate to information and authority.

The upside of the Trump presidency is that people are not willing to give to him. People see him as irrational, as erratic, but this is an image he has deliberately created for negotiation purposes. He is much more brilliant than we are willing to give him.

speaker

Kashim Shettima

reason

This comment offers a contrarian perspective on a controversial figure, challenging assumptions and encouraging a more nuanced analysis of political strategies.

impact

It introduced complexity to the discussion of global leadership and negotiation tactics, prompting a reconsideration of how we evaluate political figures and their actions.

Overall Assessment

These key comments shaped the discussion by consistently pushing it towards deeper, more systemic analysis of global risks. They moved beyond surface-level descriptions of problems to explore root causes, interconnections, and potential solutions. The comments encouraged participants to consider multiple perspectives, challenge assumptions, and think more holistically about complex global issues. This approach led to a richer, more nuanced conversation that highlighted the interconnectedness of various global risks and the need for multifaceted, long-term solutions.

How much worse can conflicts in Africa get?

speaker

Zanny Minton Beddoes

explanation

Understanding the potential escalation of conflicts is crucial for assessing future risks and developing mitigation strategies.

What multilateral institutions or organizations can help turn around the conflicts in Africa?

speaker

Zanny Minton Beddoes

explanation

Identifying effective international bodies for conflict resolution is important for addressing state-based armed conflicts.

How will the risk of retaliation to potential U.S. tariffs differ by country?

speaker

Zanny Minton Beddoes

explanation

Understanding the varying responses of different countries to trade policies is crucial for assessing global economic risks.

How can trust be rebuilt in institutions and leaders to address misinformation and inequality?

speaker

Zanny Minton Beddoes

explanation

Rebuilding trust is essential for addressing the risks of misinformation and societal polarization.

What role should media play in recreating vertical trust?

speaker

Audience member (Mattias)

explanation

Understanding the media’s role in rebuilding trust is crucial for addressing misinformation and societal cohesion.

How can the potential of AI be harnessed to address various global risks?

speaker

Martina Cheung

explanation

Exploring AI’s potential applications could provide solutions to multiple risks identified in the report.

How can AI transform the modeling and management of catastrophic weather events?

speaker

John Doyle

explanation

Improving risk modeling for extreme weather events is crucial for addressing climate-related risks.