Cooperation in a Divided World / DAVOS 2025

Summary

This discussion presented the findings of the Global Cooperation Barometer 2025, a tool developed by the World Economic Forum and McKinsey & Company to measure global cooperation across five key pillars. Bob Sternfels, global managing partner of McKinsey, shared the results, which showed that overall cooperation has flatlined since 2020, though with significant variations across different areas.

The barometer revealed mixed trends in the five pillars: trade and capital flows, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security. While four of the five pillars remained relatively stable, peace and security showed a clear decline. Notable positive trends included growth in capital and services trade, continued investment in sustainable technologies, and improvements in health outcomes. However, concerns were raised about declining cross-border patents and R&D, insufficient progress on climate goals, and the ineffectiveness of multilateral organizations in addressing conflicts.

Sternfels suggested several ideas to improve cooperation, including innovating cooperation methods, practicing “planned opportunism,” redefining proximity in global trade, starting small while thinking big, and reimagining organizational models. The discussion highlighted the importance of proactive leadership in fostering cooperation and the need to balance climate action with energy availability and security.

The presentation also touched on the potential correlation between cooperation and global GDP growth, as well as the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, on cooperation trends. The decline in international student flows was noted as a potential concern for future innovation and collaboration. Overall, the barometer provides a tool for measuring and potentially improving global cooperation in the face of complex challenges.

Keypoints

Major discussion points:

– Overview of the Global Cooperation Barometer, a tool to measure global cooperation across 5 key pillars

– Detailed analysis of trends in each pillar: trade/capital flows, innovation/technology, climate/nature, health/wellness, and peace/security

– Overall cooperation has flatlined since 2020, with peace/security showing significant decline

– Suggestions for improving cooperation, including innovating collaboration methods and redefining proximity

– Discussion of specific issues like climate finance, US-China relations, and international student flows

Overall purpose:

The goal was to present and analyze the findings of the Global Cooperation Barometer 2025, providing insights into the state of global cooperation and areas for potential improvement.

Tone:

The tone was primarily informative and analytical, with speakers presenting data and insights in a professional manner. There was an undercurrent of concern about declining cooperation in some areas, balanced with cautious optimism about potential solutions. The tone became slightly more conversational during the Q&A session but remained focused on the data and implications.

Speakers

Speakers from the provided list:

– Samir Saran

Role: President of the ORF (Observer Research Foundation)

Expertise: Geopolitics, global cooperation

– Bob Sternfels

Role: Global Managing Partner of McKinsey & Company

Expertise: Global cooperation, business strategy

– Audience

Role: Attendees asking questions

Additional speakers:

– None identified

Global Cooperation Barometer 2025: Insights and Implications

The World Economic Forum recently hosted a discussion on the findings of the Global Cooperation Barometer 2025, a tool developed in collaboration with McKinsey & Company to measure global cooperation across five key pillars. The presentation, led by Bob Sternfels, Global Managing Partner of McKinsey, and moderated by Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation, offered a comprehensive analysis of cooperation trends and their implications for the future.

Overview of the Global Cooperation Barometer

The barometer measures cooperation across five pillars: trade and capital flows, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security. This tool aims to establish a baseline for measuring global cooperation, providing valuable insights for policymakers and business leaders. Sternfels emphasized the barometer’s humble goal of providing a measurement tool for cooperation, while Saran highlighted the project’s importance in the context of complicated geopolitics and global crises.

Key Findings

1. Overall Cooperation Trends

The aggregate trend in cooperation has remained relatively stable since 2020, neither significantly increasing nor decreasing. This finding challenges the common perception of declining global cooperation, offering a more nuanced view based on data.

2. Trade and Capital Flows

This pillar showed growth in capital and services trade, offset by a drop in physical goods flow, most pronounced in emerging markets. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) remained strong but became more concentrated in developed economies, potentially impacting emerging markets.

3. Innovation and Technology

While IT services and computer data flows continued to grow, there was a concerning decline in cross-border patents and research and development (R&D). This trend could have significant implications for future innovation and collaboration.

4. Climate and Natural Capital

The barometer revealed increased investment in sustainable technologies. However, the current rate of progress is insufficient to meet net-zero commitments, highlighting the need for accelerated action on climate change. In 2024, insurance costs due to natural disasters reached $135 billion.

5. Health and Wellness

Improvements in health outcomes, such as reduced child mortality and increased life expectancy, were noted. However, a significant 15% decline in cross-border R&D for life sciences raises concerns about future advancements in global health.

6. Peace and Security

This pillar showed an unambiguous decline due to geopolitical tensions and conflicts. The reduced effectiveness of multilateral organisations in addressing these issues was highlighted as a particular concern, with the UN Security Council passing the fewest resolutions in 2024.

Implications and Suggestions for Improvement

Sternfels emphasized the need for innovation in cooperation mechanisms, suggesting five ideas to enhance global collaboration:

1. Innovating cooperation methods to address complex global challenges

2. Practicing “planned opportunism” to balance adaptability with long-term goals

3. Redefining proximity in global trade to account for changing dynamics

4. Starting small while thinking big to achieve incremental progress

5. Reimagining organizational models to foster better cooperation

The discussion highlighted the importance of proactive leadership in fostering cooperation, with Sternfels arguing that leaders can actively influence outcomes rather than viewing cooperation as an exogenous force.

Q&A Session Highlights

During the Q&A session, several important topics were discussed:

1. The relationship between the US and China and its impact on global cooperation

2. The potential effects of policy changes under a new US administration on future cooperation trends

3. The connection between declining peace and security and problems in other areas of cooperation

4. The decline in international student flows and its potential impact on global cooperation and innovation

Future Considerations

The discussion raised several important questions for future consideration, including:

1. The impact of specific bilateral relationships on overall cooperation trends

2. The potential effects of policy changes on future cooperation trends

3. Factors driving the slowdown in cross-border patent investments

4. The impact of declining international student flows on global cooperation and innovation potential

In conclusion, the Global Cooperation Barometer 2025 provides valuable insights into the state of global cooperation across various sectors. While some areas show promise, others face significant challenges. The discussion emphasized the need for innovative approaches to improve cooperation and highlighted the crucial role of leadership in shaping future trends. As global challenges continue to evolve, tools like the Global Cooperation Barometer will be essential in guiding policy decisions and fostering international collaboration.

Samir Saran: Welcome to the presentation of the Global Cooperation Barometer 2025. I am Sameer Saran, and I’m the president of the ORF and a member of the expert advisory board for this year’s barometer. Those who have joined us in person, please collect your headsets to engage with this presentation. And those who are joining us online, a very warm welcome once again. Follow us with the hashtag WEF25. The Global Cooperation Barometer is a tool developed by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with McKinsey & Company to measure the state of global cooperation. In a moment, I will turn to Bob Sternfelds, global managing partner of McKinsey, to share this year’s finding. We will then leave about 10 minutes for Q&A, both from those who are online and those who are seated here. But before I do that, let me just make one point on why this is a very important project. We know geopolitics is complicated, and it is becoming even more so. We know there are increasing levels of conflict and competition in the years gone by. And we also know we are faced with a plethora of crises, a warming planet, an economy that is struggling. We know peace and security is in shambles. And, of course, we still have lots of black swans and grey swans to respond to. The barometer does not compel us to agree on everything. It tells us, or at least motivates us, to find ways of working together. It is measured across five key pillars, climate and nature, trade and capital flows, health and wellness, and peace and security, alongside innovation and technology. In a sense, what the barometer does is to tell us where we are and where we should be headed. Now, I’m going to be excited to learn more about this particular, the inaugural edition of this report, and I am going to turn the floor to Bob, who will walk us through the data. The floor is yours.

Bob Sternfels: Thanks, Samir. And thank you. And thanks for kicking us off here. Hi, everybody. It’s my privilege, on behalf of McKinsey & Company, to celebrate the second time that we’ve done this with the World Economic Forum. And when we set out on this idea of starting to measure global cooperation, we realized that there was no common definition to this. And before we start figuring out ways that we could cooperate or collaborate better, you need some baseline, right? You need a baseline. And so we set out to develop the cooperation barometer. If you delve into it, and I’ll explain it more in a moment, it has 41 indicators across five categories. We went back 10 years to start to get a trend line to this. And this is the second year in which we’ve done this. As Samir indicated, I think the reason this is so important and why we’re committed to continuing to do this is it allows us to keep score. Are things getting better or are they getting worse? We need some reference point as we figure out what we want to do. You have to be able to measure against this. And the barometer’s humble goal is just to provide a measurement tool around this. From the measurements, does it start to give us insight as to where cooperation might be warranted? It may also give us insights as to where future concerns may lie because some of the indicators are forward-looking. And how do we think about degradation in forward-looking indicators? Now, it comes against a backdrop where cooperation’s needed now more than ever. You look at some of the existential questions that we’re facing, the rapid adoption of technology and both the opportunities and disruption that that may entail, complicated geopolitics, how we continue to navigate climate transition but also fulfilling the energy needs of the global south and doing both. Demographic change that is more than any time since census was recorded in the 16th century. So there’s a real need for this. So maybe without further ado, what I’ll do is I’ll spend a little bit of time unpacking the findings and then we’ll open up to discussion. And so if I start with the first slide, which really just lays out the pillars. So as we start to break down cooperation, how have we defined it? And as Samir mentioned, there are five pillars that we’d like to go into. Trade and capital flows, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security. And from here, we’ll get more granular, but we need to start parsing this broad notion of cooperation into some types of categories. We’re refining these as we go, but there’s 41 indicators under these five categories. And so what do we find? And I’ll start at the top level. If you look at the aggregate trend in cooperation, what you find since we started recording this in 2012 is there was a rise in cooperation that in aggregate essentially flatlined since 2020. So not up, not down, flatlined in terms of cooperation. Now, there may be some good news in that because I think most people think cooperation is declining. And I’m going to point to some reasons why it stayed where it is. But I’m also going to point to how this chart is very misleading because the average misses the granularity of trends underneath it. And so at the high level, the optimist can say, hey, we’re still cooperating as we always have. I think a more concerning view starts to get into the detail. So let me then now look at the five pillars that we looked at. And what you see is a trend in these pillars that starts to diverge. So the good news, four of the five pillars are basically where they were pre-pandemic. And I’ll talk to those in a second with the real degradation being in peace and security. So at the next headline level, and I’m kind of peeling the onion on this,

Samir Saran: you’d say, hey, four of the five levers remain solid. Cooperation remains high. Peace and security is clearly declining. And I think we see that in the world around us when we just look at the number of conflicts that 2024 entailed. So that’s kind of headline one. But now let me get more granular because in each lever, you see ups and downs. And so I’m going to start with trade and capital. So if you look at trade and capital, and I’m an optimist, so I always start with the positive sides. What you see in terms of growth is you see real growth over the last year in capital and services. Now it’s offset by physical goods flow. So services grew, capital grew, but physical trade dropped. The largest concentration in physical trade dropping is in emerging markets. So we see a disruption in cooperation around physical supply chains, but a growth in services and capital. And I think we have seen some of the aspects of politicization of supply. supply chains, and that’s manifest in the index that we see. I might double-click just also on this while we stay on this slide for a second. FDI has remained strong, and you might say, hey, that’s great. People are investing cross-border. But it belies that that FDI got more concentrated into a small number of developed economies. So FDI in the emerging south dropped, global south dropped, and that’s kind of a concern as you think about where investment might be most needed, and that’s masked when you look just at aggregate FDI. Let me turn to innovation and technology, because you also see some ups and downs when you go to the second pillar in innovation and technology. And again, I’ll look at where growth has occurred. So we see IT services continue to grow. Computer data flows continue to grow at phenomenal rates. So those things give you optimism on innovation. Individuals using the Internet, in some ways the modern access to electricity has continued to go up, which provides people opportunity to be on the online world. So all those things are on the positive side on the innovation and technology front. But the worries come in some of the indicators that might be lead indicators. So what you start to see is stresses in knowledge sharing around innovation. Cross-border patents and cross-border R&D have dropped. And those are future indicators of cooperation and innovation. And they should be at least yellow flags in call out on this pillar. Let me take you to the third pillar, which is around climate and nature. And again, there are things to celebrate and things to call out as concern on this category. The good news is, despite a lot of the rhetoric over the last year, investment continued to flow into sustainable technologies. We saw a net increase in that over the course of the last year. It was in fact the largest acceleration in migration and adaptation financing that we’ve ever seen. So you’d call out that. The carbon intensity of GDP growth also went down. So we are seeing progress as sustainable technologies are implemented. The worry is the rate of progress is nowhere fast enough to hit any of the goals that we’ve articulated. And when we did an estimate around this, it’s only about 10% of the total investment required to hit our net zero commitments have actually been made. So we’ve moved, but we’ve moved 10% of the way.

Bob Sternfels: And there’s a long way to go. If I looked at cost side of this and took a natural disaster aspect, and this excludes, I’m from California, it excludes the fires in California, because that’s a 2025 aspect. In 2024 alone, the insurance industry had $135 billion in cost due to natural disasters. And that actually is at an all time high and likely will be exceeded in 2025 just based on California. So we’re also seeing that on the liability side of the climate. It’s coming home to cost. It’s coming home to cost. Let me go to pillar four, health and wellness. Again, things to celebrate, things to call out. The part to celebrate is on outcomes. Outcomes improved over the year. So if you look at child mortality, maternal mortality, and life expectancy, those all improved in 2024. They’re great outcome based metrics. But if you look at forward indicators, you start to get worried. And I’ll call out two forward indicators. Cross border R&D in life science dropped 15%. So the cooperation and collaboration around investment in future health technologies is declining. Further, I would just call out the failure of the World Health Assembly to agree on pandemic protocols. So are we ready for the next pandemic to cooperate? Maybe not. Right? And those are both future indicators around this. So you see puts and takes that might say, hey, I celebrate the success we had here, but I’m worried about the future cooperation of where this might head. Let me go to the last one, which I think should be the clearest. And this was the unambiguous decline pillar, which was around peace and security. And what really drove this were geopolitical tensions, proliferation of conflicts that we’ve seen around the world. The IRC watch list was at an all-time high. And the duration of civil conflicts was at its highest level since the Cold War. We know all those things, and they’re unambiguous declines in cooperation on this front. If you do look at, let’s say, the efficacy of multilateral organizations around this, 2024 was not a good year for the effectiveness of multilateral organizations in addressing these things. And if I just call out the UN Security Council, they haven’t mandated new peacekeeping operations since 2014. And there were no resolutions passed, or it was the, 2024 was the fewest number of resolutions passed by the UN Security Council. So the mechanisms we have to deal with this, at least the multilateral mechanisms, aren’t proving effective. And we’re going to need to figure out some new methods if we want to reverse this pillar. So those are five pillars. I will close with some thoughts from the barometer when we pulled up in collaboration with the WEF to say, well, what might be ideas to improve these trends? And there were five ideas that I wanted to highlight. The first is, we need to innovate on how we cooperate. I’ll just be blunt. Organizations don’t cooperate well, right? I work with a lot of private enterprise. You’re just geared for the antibodies not to cooperate up and down the value chain. Public-private often misses each other, and public-public often has tough times really figuring out real collaboration. So how do we innovate on mechanisms to collaborate better? The second is what we call planned opportunism. When you see something, can you mobilize quickly to find advances to cooperate, or do we dilly in the back-and-forth negotiation? How do we break that through and change the cycle time so that we can be opportune when a moment strikes to cooperate? The third is redefining proximity. And one of the things that we’ve done is we’ve looked at trade corridors around the world. You are seeing, actually, the world reconnect in different ways. Some seem intuitive. So if you look at the rise of flows between the U.S. and ASEAN, you’ve seen that rise. But you may not know that the rise between the GCC and Brazil, the rise between India and Central Europe, actually, around manufacturing and how it’s being reset, and also IT services. So there are new patterns and new connections here that may allow us to define proximity in different ways and reconnect the world. I love this one of think big but start small. This is the idea of if we stay in the grand, we never get going. So how do we pick places just to get start and start measuring progress? And then maybe finally, I’d close with this notion of, it’s a complicated word, structural segmentation. What this means is different organizational models going forward. How do we think about reimagining our supply chains? How do we think about reorganizing talent when we operate in multiple countries? How do we think about new capital structures if you operate around the world to get different sources of capital for different parts of your business in different parts of the world? There’s got to be some innovation on that front if we want to unlock cooperation. So that’s the report in a whirlwind. Samir, I’ll hand back to you and I think we can do some Q&A. So I’m going to come to you in a few minutes, but let me ask Bob a couple of follow-up questions. We see flatlining since I think the 20s, 2020s, we see a flatlining. That’s also when the Trump term ended. In some sense, we had a new moment. How do you see, what would your message be to global leaders today? Is there a sign of positive future that we could work towards? Or are we beginning to see the beginning of a decline of cooperation? You know, I think it’s a fundamental question of do you believe as a leader this is an exogenous force or an endogenous variable, right? Meaning is this being done to me or can I affect the outcome? And I think what’s clear since 2020 is we’ve had multiple shocks. We had a pandemic. We had the invasion of Ukraine. We’ve had the rethinking of the world order that you and I grew up in. What it’s turning to, I can’t say, but it’s changing, right? So one version is left to its own devices. I think you will see cooperation decay, right? But we don’t need to leave it to its own devices. Many of these aspects allow us as leaders, whether you’re private, public, social, to affect change. And I see this in the world around us where the CEOs that I talk to are trying to figure out this is their version of that story. There are challenges, but there are also opportunities. And I think one of the asks that I would have to leaders watching is how do we lean into the opportunities as well as the challenges so that we could actually ensure that this doesn’t flatline, but picks up.

Samir Saran: You know, let me turn to a very interesting slide you presented to us. You see really strong climate finance forces that are now investing in mitigation efforts, and yet you see a rise in emissions. Is that about money going to wrong places? I mean, the bigger question, what are your advice to those who are seeking to cooperate on getting the right… You know, that slide is really telling.

Bob Sternfels: Well, and look, you know this better than anybody from the part of the world that you sit in, but when you think about this challenge, often leaders talk about a trilemma that we need to solve for. We need to solve for climate change. Equally, we need to solve for energy availability. So, India consumes one-tenth of the energy of the United States. And denying India the growth path that it’s on, seven, eight percent, hopefully all the way through your hundredth, is not the right solution here. So we need affordable energy, we need clean energy, and I think also what the recent events showed us is you need secure energy, that the energy supply chains, in particular if you look at Europe, were not that resilient. They were fairly fragile. And so you have to solve all three of these at the same time. And I think what that leads you to is the thinking of and-based thinking. And this is an idea that says we do need to continue to invest. From a business perspective, we need the environment and framework that says I’m going to be rewarded for the time frame of that investment, and that there’s a policy and regulatory environment that makes those investments economic. So we need that. I think on the other side of the equation, we need an environment that’s conducive for all of you young bright minds out there to want to drive innovation in the space. We see enormous potential for future innovation in climate technologies. Is that going to be rewarded? And will our young best and brightest go into this space? But I think also there’s an aspect of, in this balance of leaders between adapting to current environment and maintaining true to your convictions, how do you hold some line in the middle that says I’m not abandoning these trilemma goals? And often that requires, I think, a shift in let’s start measuring year-by-year progress as opposed to end-date aspirations. And one of the things that I like about the index is we can start getting more granular and measure this year-by-year. I can go on with a few more questions. Fascinating slides and the report. Congratulations. Thank you for jumping in on this, too. It’s been great. And I’m opening it up to all of you now to Bob, those online, and those here with us. I’m going to put on a headset. Yeah, and I’ll try and listen along here so I can hear your questions.

Audience: I’ll remove my glasses. It doesn’t work, but I’ll do it. Go ahead. Please ask your questions. There’s a gentleman there. Which channel are you on here? Number two. Sorry. I’ve got to get on the right channel. Yeah. Are you on two yet? No, it’s… I don’t think I have a battery. You don’t have a battery? Yeah. Okay. Maybe I can… Oh, I’ve got one here. Thank you so much. Sorry. It’s easier to answer the question if you can hear the question. Well, that’s not necessarily true, as we all know. Hi. Go ahead. Ignorance is bliss. Sometimes people answer the question they want anyway. Bob, one of the things that occurs to me about the analysis you’ve done is you could abstract from the aggregate figures certain relationships. For example, the relationship between the United States and China. And I don’t know if you’ve done this analysis, but if you have, I’d be very interested in knowing which relationships are driving what the average figures are and which relations are driving them in a downward direction. Yeah. It’s a great, great question. And the answer is no. We haven’t started to get to correlations and relationships driving underlying drivers, but we do have sub-data that starts to see trends. So, for example, I had mentioned that physical trade flows had dropped. The largest drop in that was US-China. Does that imply a correlation? Probably. But we haven’t linked to that. We’ve identified the atomized driver that says, look, this is one of the biggest drops in the cooperation index. And I think the reason I’m excited about the index is it allows us to start to get to granular points to then say, how do we feel about that? And then does that start to lead to thinking of what we should do about it? So, Bob, just one quick follow-up on that same question.

Samir Saran: At some point, could some wise people be looking at the cooperation index and be thinking about impact on GDP, global GDP, and how certain decisions or certain lack of decisions or partnerships are affected? Well, there is a strong correlation if you go back to 2012 between the aggregate improvement in the index and the growth in GDP.

Bob Sternfels: And that’s one of the correlations that we have shown, and you’ve even seen since 2020 that change. What that foretells for the future is up for others to portend and predict. But I do think one of the areas of subsequent work could be then at a more granular level, do certain pillars matter more than others, right, as we think about this? And I think that’s a great input for perhaps the next iteration of the barometer. Another question here? Go ahead, please.

Audience: Thank you. Well, analyzing the historic information will help you try and forecast, after listening to Trump’s speech yesterday, if it will continue in a stable line or there will be some disruptions? You know, it’s probably too early to tell, I think is the honest answer to this.

Bob Sternfels: And, you know, what I would say on the one hand is one of the places that feels a little bit more certain, coming out of the new administration, is a move for less regulation. And you’ve already seen some of the pronouncements. You’re going to see several of the executive orders in a deregulation environment. From the three pieces of legislation that were passed in the past administration around infrastructure, IRA, and CHIPS Act, the current estimate, there’s over 100 billion of capital that was committed through those that is tied up in last mile permitting and regulation. By the way, half of that comes from companies outside the US. So if I just pick one granular thread that actually says you could see potentially a bump on one of these, it might be through speeding up the deployment of capital that’s already committed around that. On the other hand, one that I think is highly uncertain are around tariffs. And obviously tariffs do not drive an increase in these. So I think there’s puts and takes on this, and we’re going to have to get more granular as we unpack the actions of the current administration over the next little while. Okay, so we’re going to take the last question now, and we’re going to turn to you.

Audience: The question is, you know… Hi. The general decline in the peace and security line, is it driving the problems around cross-border cooperation in technology, general flow of goods? I mean, is that the cause? In which case, unless that line shifts, these are never going to reverse. So, you know, the levers that were outlined may or may not be relevant to actually stem the tide of those areas which were the lead indicators of, again, further future peace and security going down. Exactly. You know, it’s interesting, I think in part, but only in part.

Bob Sternfels: And the reason I say that is, when you look at the rise in conflict, clearly some of the slowdown in FDI in conflict-driven or conflict-near countries is understandable. So you see a drop in the trade number with a drop in the peace and security number because those are clearly linked. You know, others aren’t as linked. You know, when you think about cross-border patent investments, those largely so far have actually been in non-conflict geographies, right? And so when you think about the slowdown in future investments in technology, you could make a case that says, yes, I want to fix peace and security, but I could fix this one as a standalone, right? And what is driving a slowdown in that investment? And so I like these linkages, but I’d also try and not say everything is linked to everything because then it starts to slow down. Where can we actually atomize some of these for more targeted problem solving? Bob, the last three minutes, I noticed a very interesting bit of information that you presented. International students flow negative.

Samir Saran: Yes. Does that tell us the story of this? And you know what I’m talking about. No. It’s basically Chinese students going to America, right? Look, we’re on. And is that, in many ways, the story of this cooperation battle? Look, I have the privilege of leading a global company that operates in 70 countries. We have over 150 nationalities. And global experience is one of the key things in our own DNA. You do see a slowdown in cross-border students, particularly grad students, right? And when you actually think about the innovation potential, but maybe this is just Bob’s own version pulling up from the index, the potential for better understanding each other and therefore for real collaboration, not just cooperation, I think that’s one to watch and one we need to figure out. Great. I think this brings us to the end of a wonderful session where we got a glimpse of the index. Do get a copy. Do download it. Do read it. Do analyze it yourself and do write about it. And, Bob, thank you for doing this wonderful talk. Thank you. Thank you for co-hosting. This was fun. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, David. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Agreement Points

Importance of the Global Cooperation Barometer

speakers

– Samir Saran
– Bob Sternfels

arguments

Barometer measures state of global cooperation across 5 pillars

Tool developed to establish baseline for measuring cooperation

summary

Both speakers agree on the significance of the Global Cooperation Barometer as a tool to measure and understand global cooperation trends across various sectors.

Flatlining of global cooperation since 2020

speakers

– Bob Sternfels
– Samir Saran

arguments

Aggregate trend shows cooperation flatlined since 2020

summary

The speakers concur that global cooperation has remained relatively stable since 2020, neither significantly increasing nor decreasing.

Decline in peace and security cooperation

speakers

– Bob Sternfels
– Samir Saran

arguments

Unambiguous decline due to geopolitical tensions and conflicts

Reduced effectiveness of multilateral organizations

summary

Both speakers acknowledge a clear decline in cooperation related to peace and security, attributed to increasing geopolitical tensions and conflicts.

Similar Viewpoints

Both speakers emphasize the need for innovative approaches to improve global cooperation, suggesting that leaders have the power to influence outcomes through new strategies and perspectives.

speakers

– Bob Sternfels
– Samir Saran

arguments

Need for innovation in cooperation mechanisms

Importance of planned opportunism and redefining proximity

Leaders can affect outcomes rather than viewing cooperation as exogenous

Unexpected Consensus

Positive trends in sustainable technology investment

speakers

– Bob Sternfels

arguments

Increased investment in sustainable technologies

Progress rate insufficient to meet net zero commitments

explanation

Despite overall concerns about cooperation, there is an unexpected consensus on the positive trend in sustainable technology investment, although the rate of progress is still insufficient to meet goals.

Overall Assessment

Summary

The main areas of agreement include the importance of measuring global cooperation, the flatlining of cooperation since 2020, and the decline in peace and security cooperation. There is also consensus on the need for innovative approaches to improve cooperation.

Consensus level

Moderate consensus among speakers, with shared recognition of challenges and opportunities in global cooperation. This implies a common understanding of the current state of global cooperation but also highlights the complexity of addressing these issues across various sectors and regions.

Different Viewpoints

Interpretation of cooperation trends

speakers

– Bob Sternfels
– Samir Saran

arguments

Aggregate trend shows cooperation flatlined since 2020

Potential impact of cooperation on global GDP

summary

While Bob Sternfels presents data showing cooperation has flatlined since 2020, Samir Saran questions the potential impact on global GDP, suggesting a more nuanced interpretation of the data might be necessary.

Unexpected Differences

Impact of peace and security on other cooperation areas

speakers

– Bob Sternfels
– Audience

arguments

Unambiguous decline due to geopolitical tensions and conflicts

The general decline in the peace and security line, is it driving the problems around cross-border cooperation in technology, general flow of goods?

explanation

While Bob Sternfels presents peace and security as one of several pillars affecting cooperation, an audience member unexpectedly suggests it might be the primary driver of problems in other areas like technology and trade. This highlights a potential disagreement on the interconnectedness of different cooperation factors.

Overall Assessment

summary

The main areas of disagreement revolve around the interpretation of cooperation trends, the adequacy of current efforts in addressing global challenges, and the interconnectedness of different cooperation factors.

difference_level

The level of disagreement appears to be moderate. While there is general agreement on the importance of global cooperation and the challenges faced, there are differing perspectives on how to interpret the data and address these challenges. These differences could have significant implications for how global leaders and organizations approach cooperation efforts in the future.

Partial Agreements

Both speakers acknowledge the importance of addressing climate change, but while Bob Sternfels highlights increased investment in sustainable technologies, he also points out that the current rate of progress is insufficient to meet net zero commitments. This suggests agreement on the goal but potential disagreement on the adequacy of current efforts.

speakers

– Bob Sternfels
– Samir Saran

arguments

Increased investment in sustainable technologies

Progress rate insufficient to meet net zero commitments

Similar Viewpoints

Both speakers emphasize the need for innovative approaches to improve global cooperation, suggesting that leaders have the power to influence outcomes through new strategies and perspectives.

speakers

– Bob Sternfels
– Samir Saran

arguments

Need for innovation in cooperation mechanisms

Importance of planned opportunism and redefining proximity

Leaders can affect outcomes rather than viewing cooperation as exogenous

Key Takeaways

The Global Cooperation Barometer shows cooperation has flatlined since 2020 overall, with diverging trends across 5 key pillars

Trade and capital flows saw growth in services and capital, but decline in physical goods trade, especially in emerging markets

Innovation and technology showed growth in IT services and data flows, but decline in cross-border patents and R&D

Climate and nature saw increased investment in sustainable tech, but progress is insufficient to meet net zero goals

Health outcomes improved, but cross-border R&D in life sciences declined significantly

Peace and security showed unambiguous decline due to geopolitical tensions and conflicts

New approaches are needed to improve cooperation, including innovating cooperation mechanisms and redefining proximity

Resolutions and Action Items

Continue developing and refining the Global Cooperation Barometer to measure cooperation trends

Leaders should view cooperation as something they can actively influence, not an exogenous force

Focus on year-by-year progress measurement rather than just end-date aspirations for climate goals

Consider analyzing correlations between specific relationships (e.g. US-China) and cooperation trends in future iterations

Unresolved Issues

How to balance climate change mitigation, energy availability, and energy security

How to reverse the decline in peace and security cooperation

Impact of potential US policy changes (e.g. deregulation, tariffs) on future cooperation trends

How to address the decline in international student flows and its impact on innovation

Suggested Compromises

Adopt ‘and-based thinking’ to simultaneously pursue clean, affordable, and secure energy solutions

Balance adapting to current environment with maintaining conviction in long-term goals

Consider more targeted problem-solving for issues not directly linked to peace and security challenges

The barometer does not compel us to agree on everything. It tells us, or at least motivates us, to find ways of working together.

speaker

Samir Saran

reason

This comment frames the purpose and value of the Global Cooperation Barometer in a nuanced way, emphasizing cooperation over consensus.

impact

It set the tone for the discussion by positioning the barometer as a tool for fostering collaboration rather than enforcing agreement, encouraging a more open-minded approach to the findings.

If you look at the aggregate trend in cooperation, what you find since we started recording this in 2012 is there was a rise in cooperation that in aggregate essentially flatlined since 2020. So not up, not down, flatlined in terms of cooperation.

speaker

Bob Sternfels

reason

This observation challenges the common perception that global cooperation is declining, offering a more nuanced view based on data.

impact

It shifted the conversation from broad generalizations about declining cooperation to a more detailed examination of trends in specific areas, prompting a deeper analysis of the data.

Cross-border patents and cross-border R&D have dropped. And those are future indicators of cooperation and innovation.

speaker

Bob Sternfels

reason

This insight highlights potential future challenges in global innovation and cooperation, based on leading indicators.

impact

It introduced a forward-looking element to the discussion, prompting consideration of long-term trends and potential future issues in global cooperation.

We need to innovate on how we cooperate.

speaker

Bob Sternfels

reason

This comment shifts the focus from merely measuring cooperation to actively improving it, suggesting a need for new approaches.

impact

It moved the discussion from analysis to action, prompting consideration of practical steps to enhance global cooperation.

Is there a sign of positive future that we could work towards? Or are we beginning to see the beginning of a decline of cooperation?

speaker

Samir Saran

reason

This question challenges the interpretation of the data and pushes for a forward-looking perspective.

impact

It prompted a deeper reflection on the implications of the data and the role of leadership in shaping future cooperation trends.

Overall Assessment

These key comments shaped the discussion by moving it from a simple presentation of data to a more nuanced exploration of trends, future implications, and potential actions. They encouraged a deeper analysis of the complexities in global cooperation, challenged simplistic narratives, and prompted consideration of how to actively improve cooperation rather than just measure it. The discussion evolved from descriptive to prescriptive, considering not just what is happening but what could and should be done in response to these trends.

How do specific bilateral relationships (e.g., US-China) impact the overall cooperation trends?

speaker

Audience member

explanation

Understanding the impact of key bilateral relationships could provide deeper insights into drivers of global cooperation trends

What is the correlation between the cooperation index and global GDP growth?

speaker

Samir Saran

explanation

Exploring this relationship could help quantify the economic impact of changes in global cooperation

How will potential policy changes under a new US administration affect future cooperation trends?

speaker

Audience member

explanation

Anticipating the impact of policy shifts could help predict future cooperation trends

Is the decline in peace and security driving problems in other areas like cross-border technology cooperation and flow of goods?

speaker

Audience member

explanation

Understanding these relationships could help prioritize areas for improvement in global cooperation

What is driving the slowdown in cross-border patent investments, particularly in non-conflict geographies?

speaker

Bob Sternfels

explanation

Identifying specific factors affecting innovation cooperation could help address this issue

What is the impact of declining international student flows on global cooperation and innovation potential?

speaker

Samir Saran

explanation

Understanding this relationship could inform policies to promote cross-cultural understanding and collaboration