The macroeconomic impacts of AI

The International Labour Organization is organising a session on the macroeconomic impacts of AI, featuring a new World Bank Group modelling framework that treats AI as a structural transformation of production rather than a simple productivity shock. By embedding the hardware–software production paradigm into its dynamic CGE model (MANAGE), the framework simulates how AI adoption affects sectors, occupations, and prices over time, using detailed task-level occupational data from the ILO-NASK Index of GenAI Exposure.

The tool models AI as a dual-capital bundle—combining data, software, and intangible assets—and allows policymakers to explore alternative adoption scenarios and their implications for growth, structural change, and equity. Moving beyond partial-equilibrium approaches, it provides governments with a macroeconomic lens for designing AI strategies that support inclusive and sustainable development.

In 2026, the framework will be applied in a first case study in Poland, with potential expansion to other emerging and middle-income economies, highlighting its relevance for policy design in shaping AI’s developmental impact.