Change in the air: Disruptive developments in UAV technology

Summary

Armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have primarily operated in uncontested airspace. While states are developing larger unmanned combat aircraft (UCAVs) for contested environments, none have been successfully demonstrated or deployed. In contrast, smaller, cost-effective UAV projects are advancing rapidly. This briefing paper explores disruptive UAV technologies through verifiable open-source material, highlighting those that could significantly shift the military balance. Due to frequent failures in meeting deadlines and the secrecy of military programs, official statements offer limited insight. The focus is on select transparent states with substantial UAV investments. By examining historical developments, the research assesses whether small armed UAVs might offer disruptive capabilities more swiftly than larger UCAVs, emphasizing ongoing technological advancements that enhance these capabilities.