Thriving in Orbit / Davos 2025

Summary

This panel discussion at the World Economic Forum focused on the rapidly growing space economy and its impact across various sectors. Experts from space agencies, academia, and venture capital discussed key trends shaping the industry, including decreasing launch costs, commercial innovation, and diversification of investments. They highlighted the democratization of space, with more countries and private companies now able to participate in space activities.

The panelists explored commercial opportunities in areas like Earth observation, satellite communications, and space tourism. They emphasized the dual-use nature of space technologies for both civilian and defense applications, noting the increasing importance of space capabilities for national security. The discussion also covered the potential of space technologies to address sustainability challenges on Earth, particularly in monitoring climate change and greenhouse gas emissions.

The experts discussed the future of space exploration, including plans for returning to the Moon and eventual missions to Mars. They noted the need for international collaboration and public-private partnerships to drive innovation and make space missions more sustainable. The panel also touched on the challenges and opportunities in space-based health research, particularly in the context of the International Space Station’s planned decommissioning.

Throughout the discussion, there was a sense of optimism about the future of the space economy, balanced with pragmatic considerations about funding, technological challenges, and the need for responsible development of space activities. The panelists agreed that space is becoming increasingly integrated into daily life and will play a crucial role in addressing global challenges in the coming decades.

Keypoints

Major discussion points:

– The rapid growth and commercialization of the space industry, with decreasing launch costs and new technologies enabling more private sector involvement

– Applications of space technology for Earth observation, climate monitoring, and sustainability efforts

– The importance of international collaboration and public-private partnerships in space exploration and research

– The role of space in national defense and security

– The future of space tourism and human space exploration

Overall purpose:

The goal of this panel discussion was to explore the current state and future trajectory of the space economy, examining commercial opportunities, technological innovations, and potential impacts on society.

Tone:

The overall tone was optimistic and forward-looking. Panelists spoke enthusiastically about new possibilities in space while also acknowledging challenges. There was a mix of pragmatic discussion of business and policy considerations along with more aspirational comments about space exploration. The tone became slightly more cautionary when discussing defense applications, but generally remained positive throughout.

Speakers

– Rachel Morison: Moderator

– Zachary Bogue: Managing partner and co-founder of deep tech venture capital firm DCVC

– Hiroshi Yamakawa: President of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)

– Andrius Kubilius: EU commissioner for defense and space

– Dava Newman: Director of the MIT Media Lab

Additional speakers:

– Josef Aschenbach: CEO of European Space Agency (mentioned but did not speak)

– Kimberly Washington: CEO of Deep Space Biology and founder of Space for Girls

Space Economy and Exploration: A World Economic Forum Panel Discussion

This panel discussion at the World Economic Forum focused on the rapidly growing space economy and its impact across various sectors. Experts from space agencies, academia, and venture capital explored key trends shaping the industry and discussed the future of space exploration and utilisation.

Commercialisation and Democratisation of Space

A central theme of the discussion was the increasing commercialisation and democratisation of space activities. Zachary Bogue, managing partner at DCVC, highlighted how decreasing launch costs are enabling more commercial ventures. He noted that launch costs have decreased tenfold during his investing career, with potential for another tenfold decrease in the next decade. This trend is making space more accessible to a wider range of entities, including universities and small companies.

Dava Newman, Director of the MIT Media Lab, emphasised the role of public-private partnerships in driving innovation in space exploration. She discussed how these partnerships are allowing for greater participation in lunar missions and other space activities. However, there was a nuanced difference in perspective between Bogue and Newman on the reliance of commercial space companies on government partnerships. Bogue suggested that these companies could operate independently of political changes, while Newman highlighted the benefits of public-private collaborations.

Hiroshi Yamakawa, President of JAXA, discussed Japan’s efforts to foster its space industry through the Space Strategy Fund, which has an annual budget of $2 billion USD. This fund targets areas such as satellite development, space exploration, and space debris mitigation. Yamakawa emphasized the importance of international collaboration in these efforts, highlighting Japan’s partnerships with various countries and space agencies.

Earth Observation and Climate Monitoring

The panellists agreed on the critical role of space technology, particularly Earth observation satellites, in monitoring climate change and addressing sustainability challenges. Dava Newman explained that over 50% of Earth and climate data now comes from space, making it crucial for environmental decision-making. She specifically mentioned the ability to detect methane leaks from space, which is vital for addressing climate change.

Zachary Bogue emphasized this point, stating that over half the variables needed to track climate change can only be monitored from space. He highlighted the importance of satellite technology in monitoring pollution and enforcing environmental regulations.

Hiroshi Yamakawa discussed Japan’s contributions to Earth observation, mentioning the launch of GOSAT and GOSAT-2, the world’s first satellites dedicated to observing greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide. Andrius Kubilius, EU Commissioner for Defense and Space, discussed the EU’s Copernicus Earth Observation Satellite System and its ability to deliver crucial information about global warming trends.

Space for Defense and Security

The increasing importance of space for defense and security was another key topic. Andrius Kubilius emphasised the growing significance of space services for defence and the need for Europe to expand its capabilities in this area. Hiroshi Yamakawa discussed the collaboration between civil space programmes and national security efforts in Japan, mentioning JAXA’s involvement in both civil and national security space activities.

The discussion touched on the need for technologies to defend space assets and the potential for dual-use technologies that can serve both defence and civilian purposes. However, the tone became slightly more cautionary when discussing defence applications.

Future of Space Exploration and Tourism

The panellists explored the future of space exploration, including plans for returning to the Moon and eventual missions to Mars. Dava Newman discussed the importance of these missions for scientific discovery, emphasising the search for evidence of life and the need for advanced technology to support these endeavours. She also highlighted the potential for scientific breakthroughs by studying the spectrum of gravity, from microgravity to lunar gravity and beyond.

Zachary Bogue highlighted the potential for space tourism to provide transformative experiences and mentioned Impulse Space, a company working on moving satellites between different orbits. Dava Newman provided a vivid description of the ‘overview effect’ experienced by astronauts, describing how seeing Earth from space can change one’s perspective on the planet’s fragility.

Andrius Kubilius offered a broader view, suggesting that space will become “new normal,” with both romantic explorers seeking new frontiers and practical applications serving people’s everyday needs. He advocated for a “big bang approach” in space development to accelerate progress and innovation.

Space Technology in Daily Life

The discussion emphasized the growing importance of space technology in everyday life. A representative from the European Space Agency highlighted how space-based services are already integral to many aspects of daily activities, from navigation to weather forecasting. The panelists agreed that this integration would only increase in the future, with space technology playing a crucial role in addressing global challenges.

Challenges and Opportunities

The panel addressed challenges facing the space industry, including the planned decommissioning of the International Space Station (ISS) in 2030. The experts discussed the need to continue health research in space beyond the ISS, particularly in areas such as protein crystal growth experiments in microgravity for medicine design, as mentioned by Hiroshi Yamakawa. The potential transition to private space stations was explored as a solution to maintain research capabilities in low Earth orbit.

Andrius Kubilius raised the possibility of future space manufacturing and energy production, highlighting potential long-term opportunities in the space economy.

Conclusion

Throughout the discussion, there was a sense of optimism about the future of the space economy, balanced with pragmatic considerations about funding, technological challenges, and the need for responsible development of space activities. The panellists agreed that space is becoming increasingly integrated into daily life and will play a crucial role in addressing global challenges in the coming decades.

The discussion highlighted the need for continued international collaboration and public-private partnerships to drive innovation and make space missions more sustainable. It also underscored the importance of leveraging space technologies to address pressing issues on Earth, particularly in the realm of climate change and sustainability.

As the space economy continues to evolve and diversify, it will be crucial to balance scientific exploration, commercial opportunities, and practical applications to ensure that the benefits of space technology are maximised for society as a whole.

Rachel Morison: Joining us today to discuss thriving in orbit, we’re going to talk about the forces that will shape the trajectory of the space economy and how to capitalize on this shift. The space economy is growing at an unprecedented rate, going from niche to ubiquitous and creating value for multiple sectors. According to a WEF report, the space economy is forecast to be worth $1.8 trillion by 2035, which is just a staggering number. Space activity is not just confined to in orbit and increasingly plays a role in our daily lives through things like satellites. The integration of space is driven by multiple trends, including decreasing launch costs, commercial innovation, and diversification of investments. Joining me to discuss this, I’m delighted to welcome our panel. We have Hiroshi Yamakawa, who is president of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. We have Andrius Kubilius, who is EU commissioner for defense and space. We have Dava Newman, who is the director of the MIT Media Lab. And Zach Bogue, who is managing partner and co-founder of deep tech venture capital firm DCVC. Thank you, and welcome to those joining us online. And just a reminder that if you’re sharing your thoughts about what you’re hearing here, please use the hashtag WEF25. Now let’s get started. In the intro, I mentioned the democratization of space. First of all, what kind of commercial opportunities do you see, Zach?

Zachary Bogue: Sure. So yeah, DCVC, we’re an early stage deep tech venture fund. We back entrepreneurs solving hard real world problems with AI, which means that we also invest in space, rockets, and satellites. We’ve been investing in that sector since 2013. And venture capital dollars are very small compared to what you previously thought from space. And there’s really three megatrends driving this. You mentioned one of them, decreasing launch costs. Over the course of just my investing career, launch costs has decreased by at least. 10x, which is kind of a staggering decrease, as well as we think there’s probably another 10x decrease coming over the next decade. That makes it much more approachable. The next trend is the use of off-the-shelf technologies. Previously, the conventional wisdom was that you needed to spend millions of dollars to build a satellite, the cost of an office building. Now you can approach some of the microsatellites on the cost of a car, tens of thousands of dollars. These plunging costs have really made this accessible from a for-profit fund. Obviously, space stuff in orbit is very useful. It’s very exciting. But for us, there needs to be a real commercial use case back down on the planet. And so these are sort of what we think are the opportunities. And then the third megatrend is increasing frequency. SpaceX obviously drove down the commercial cost of launch. And then companies like Rocket Lab are making it so that you can launch satellites almost as much as weekly on a small payload capacity. All of these things make it much more approachable from a commercial perspective. And I’d say it’s no longer just the province of governments.

Rachel Morison: Thank you. And Dava, I’d love to hear about which areas of technology innovation you’re most interested in or what’s the most exciting.

Dava Newman: Oh, thank you so much. So again, from the Media Lab and our space exploration initiative, most exciting today and in front of my mind is getting back to the moon. Why? Because we have a launch one month, February 28. It’s really an interesting launch to talk about. If you don’t know, it’s what we started when I was back at NASA, the public-private partnerships. But really opening this up, it’s literally democratizing it. So these are small missions that industry has at a launch on a SpaceX capsule. But it’s barely millions. And we talk about space missions to the moon. You think billions and huge missions. Then you think hundreds of millions, tens of millions. We’re talking a few. And so here, university folks, researchers, we get to fly. payloads to the moon. It’s high risk, you know, might fail, but you know, it’s my job as the Apollo program person to like get my students’ ideas, you know, get our science to the moon. So we’ll launch hopefully in a month. The technologies that we’re flying are very important to scientific benefit. We’re going to the South Pole. All spaceflight is hard. The moon and specifically landing on the South Pole is going to be really tough, but we’re going to Shackleton Crater. It’s magnificent. 21, you know, kilometers wide. We’re going there to look at the ice. We know where there’s ice, water, you know, for exploration and we’ll be flying a camera. It’s fundamental. It’s the first time that humanity will, you know, go to another planet. Why don’t we take LIDAR and colors and RGB? Even in the vacuum of the moon, you have no depth perception. So that’s not good for our human missions coming up. Are you 10 meters or 100 meters away? So we’re going to take all those images. So if the mission succeeds, if the garage door comes up and that rover, that commercial rover comes out, we’ll be snapping photos, but there’ll be very interesting images. Then the students get to do small rovers and it just shows you just universities are participating, new small space companies, you know, intuitive machines. Maybe you’ve never even heard of it. All of these, all these, we’re all working together. We’re very excited about going well beyond low earth orbit to the moon and then to Mars. To Mars is for the, that takes a lot of advanced technology because we’re going there very purposely. Scientific purpose is to look at the evidence of life, probably past life and prove that. And there’s lots more, many more questions. Exoplanets to all of them. We just launched Europa Clipper, you know, to look at Europa, a wonderful water world in Jupiter. So, so many hundred space science missions going on.

Rachel Morison: Thank you. And Andreas, we see really fast paced growth from countries like the US and China. What do you see the role for Europe in the space industry and developing technologies?

Andrius Kubilius: Well, thanks a lot. I am quite a newcomer in to space issues, despite the fact that I graduated many years ago, physics, and was spending ten years in research. So I will try to say just a few words as I see the whole development and what is coming, not only where we are. Yes, we see the United States with great dreams, romantic, moving ahead, exploration, new frontiers and so on. We Europeans are a little bit, how to say, not so romantic maybe, I don’t know why. Much more romantic. We are practical people, not anymore looking where are new frontiers. We were during 20th century, how to say, retracting from some territories. But when I am looking into the space, first of all, my impression is very simple. If you look into some kind of historical perspective, 19th century was a century, if you look into historical perspective from communications, what people were using for communications. So 19th century was a century of railways. 20th century, now cars started to appear, automobiles and planes. Now at the end of 20th century, we started to move into the space. And from that point of view, my point is 21st century will be really the century of space. Space will become new normal. There will be romantic people looking to new frontiers, there will be also practical people like Europeans, making Galileo, making Copernicus, service to all the people. The best service, well, let me be proud that Galileo is better than American production and so on. But of course, we are losing in launching, we shall try to… to catch up, but it’s becoming new normal. I mean, and you can look, well, if you were looking to, for example, the cars industry, automobiles industry. At some time, it looks like that Ford is everywhere, everything. In some way, we see now also the situation that some companies are becoming global, leading almost monopolies and so on. But it will not stay forever. There will be normal development of industries, normal development of space, communications. People will become accustomed to that. So that’s what is coming. I am always asking very simple questions. Now, I have a grandson just three months old, the fourth one. And I’m asking, so what my grandson, Vincentus, what he will see at the end of the 21st century? What will be, you know, what will happen in space? I cannot predict, but I can say that really, now for us, it’s something totally new, but it will become absolutely, you know, new normal life of daily life with all the different sorts of, you know, space economy developing. But, you know, when we’re looking into space economy again, I see, you know, at least four branches. First of all, you know, space for economy, where we are good with, you know, Galileo and Copernicus. Then, you know, economy of space with launching, you know, satellites and things like that. Then economy in space, which perhaps is coming. I am, you know, trying to be also a realistic dreamer, that, you know, manufacturing, energy production in space perhaps will start to come, and that will be what I call economy in space. And there is economy, what I call economy of space exploration. You know, it’s a dream to start mining in the moon, for example. I don’t know if that’s realistic, but that also can come. So we shall see all those different developments and we need to be ready for that.

Rachel Morison: Thank you. And let me bring you in here, Hiroshi. We’re seeing quite a lot of commercial joint ventures, perhaps because of some of the funding issues with space projects. What do you think about JVs and partnerships between countries as well? Do you think that that’s the way to move forward quickly?

Hiroshi Yamakawa: Well, thank you very much. And the answer is yes. But let me start with describing the national goals of Japan. And then I’m going to talk about funding and finally international collaboration. So talking about national goals, the first goal is autonomous access to space, or maintaining or strengthening it. And the second is increasing international competitiveness. And third is space sustainability and economy. It’s not so romantic, but it’s national goals. And to meet those goals, JAXA is engaging in R&D, research and development. And also we are actually developing, launching and operating rockets and satellites. And a new role, which is funding, a funding function was added last year to JAXA, Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency. And the Space Strategy Fund is to foster the Japanese space industry and even non-space industry. And the budget for what we call the Space Strategy Fund is annually 2.0 billion US dollars. And it’s bigger than our own budget. I mean, JAXA’s annual budget is about 1.5 billion US dollars. And the total Japanese government budget for space is about $6 billion. So the remaining 2.5 will go to, for example, Ministry of Defense, Cabinet Secretariat, who is in charge of information gathering satellites, and the Cabinet Office in charge of Japanese navigational satellite systems. But I’d like to talk about something about the Space Strategy Fund, because the Space Strategy Fund is not for JAXA, it’s, of course, for space industry and also academia. And the main target includes so many things, like communication, optical communication, quantum key distribution communication and navigation, and also remote sensing satellite data analysis based on AI and machine learnings, and many others, like on-orbit service, space debris mitigation, and everything, and also space science exploration and space transportation system. I’m talking about rockets. So those are the key areas we would like to develop and help or assist the space industry. And the most important point is that based on those established technologies, we have to make it a real business. And in that sense, international cooperation is vital, very essential, because no single country can do everything. And that’s why we have to collaborate. But at the same time, it makes every space mission very sustainable. And that’s why we have to do international collaboration. And also, not only international space collaboration, but also we have to connect space sector and non-space sectors to produce innovation or produce new markets and to maximize the returns. on investments of the government or private venture capitals. So I think that’s the way we have to do, and right now we are pursuing that direction.

Rachel Morison: And Zak, sticking with rockets, how long do you think it will take before the players become more diversified in terms of who can actually raise money to be able to launch a rocket?

Zachary Bogue: I think there’s already pretty good diversification. Obviously, there’s the sort of well-known government players, and as we’ve heard, there’s more governments developing rockets, obviously SpaceX and Rocket Lab. I don’t know how much more redundancy we need, but another area of rocketry that I’m also really interested in that’s sort of coming is lots of the innovation we’ve spoken about has involved LEO, Low Earth Orbit, and these are sort of the planet labs and the existing satellites that we hear about of the new space economy. There’s a cool company called Impulse Space that’s sort of enabled by all of these plunging costs that now can commercially take satellites very quickly from LEO to MEO or GEO, and I’ll explain those. So MEO is Middle Earth Orbit. That’s often where GPS satellites are for sort of navigation. And then also GEO, which is Geostationary Orbit, which is where a lot of communication satellites are. Obviously, we’re also seeing communication satellites increasingly move back down to LEO. But this company, Impulse Space, is just basically a little booster that actually sort of rides along as payload, not part of the rocket, that will just take these commercial satellites now from LEO into these higher orbits, which sort of enables a whole new type of types of modalities for private companies in orbits that were previously dominated really by government as well as by sort of the big communications players, which is sort of an interesting related to rockets innovation that we’re seeing coming into the market right now.

Rachel Morison: of funding, I’d just like to ask about the sort of post-SPAC turndown and where you think the industry is in terms of finding funding.

Zachary Bogue: Sure. Obviously, you know, the SPAC boom, that is still sort of the rabbit still going through the bow constrictor. And obviously, we like seeing, you know, deep tech companies making it into the public markets because as member of the public markets is your lowest cost, your access to lowest cost of equity capital and lowest cost of debt capital, obviously much more transparency. Obviously, the SPAC boom pulled a bunch of space companies onto the public markets a little too soon. And it was actually almost sort of became a, you know, a defensive measure of these companies getting public too early. But that said, now that we have, you know, some great companies that are on the public markets by SPACs, you know, obviously, you know, Planet Labs is one, but we’re also seeing, you know, now SPACs actually coming into the public market and succeeding. So I think we’re also just seeing a thawing of the IPO market as well. So I think that there will be, you know, increasing number of companies that are able to make it public, which is terrific for sort of the commercialization of space.

Rachel Morison: Thanks. And, Dava, I’m going to ask you the Trump question. Do you think Trump is a romantic or a pragmatist? What impact do you think he’s going to have on the space industry and some of the either financing or innovations? Do you think it’s going to make any difference having Trump as president?

Dava Newman: Well, moving in to a new administration in the US, again, the public-private partnerships, this is consistency of purpose is how NASA and even space with allowing it, how it works in the US and globally, it’s not just the US, I think it’s globally. So when it comes to scientific missions and technology and more, you know, government seed funds to, you know, large, large funding. I hope that there will be some consistency of purpose. It’s gonna be chaotic, for sure. New opportunities to push forward, to accelerate some of the investments, especially with the new, not approved, but NASA select, they’re gonna be very focused on acceleration and hopefully still public-private partnerships, so hopefully there’s still partnerships, but there’s gonna be focus on acceleration for commercial. That’s great, but thousands and thousands of space companies probably aren’t gonna succeed, so that’s what we’ve heard here, I think, from the panel, the diversification, and maybe there’s some niche markets, so the innovation, hopefully it’s spurred by innovation, so I’m very optimistic on the innovation piece and the innovation play, that’s good, that’s good for all of us, in terms of partnerships and alliances and consistency of purpose, shared values. I’m more concerned on those areas.

Rachel Morison: Do you think, oh, sorry.

Zachary Bogue: Just to build on that, I feel like, from the very commercial perspective, all of these companies need to be able to operate with whomever’s in the White House, and so, obviously, the commercial companies, they will, I think, just continue forward without much change, because they’re not entirely reliant on partnership, so I think it’s going to be chaotic, but I think that from the purely for-profit space companies, they will largely just continue forward.

Dava Newman: Yeah, and again, anything with space is, you do think decades, it’s fantastic now that we get opportunities, and within months, we can design and develop CubeSats, and our students can, elementary schools, CubeSats, and launch it within a year, so that’s the democratization. Space is democratized, it’s for all, everyone has access. It was mentioned by the commissioner, so space is not so special anymore, low Earth orbit, it’s just available to everyone, so it’s just not the next frontier for Discovery Romance, it’s actually for business, economy, and hopefully. for the benefit of Earth and all of us on Earth. So that’s, again, where we see low Earth orbit. Now it’s much more discovery and do the business cases close for the moon and Mars. I haven’t seen them close myself. So that’s more what I put in discovery. And back to your question, I think that’ll be consistent. We go through administrations, but when you take, you have to take a 10-year decade look, you have to take the decade-long look, and then we take the immediate, you know, where’s, as you all, where’s the business model, how do you accelerate that? So I see it, hopefully we’ll get it in balance and just keep pushing forward. And when you’re mission-driven as, you know, NASA, when you’re mission-driven, that’s great because that’s great focus. So hopefully some of the other chaos and things like, just be mission-focused and get the job done.

Rachel Morison: Thank you. And Andrius, if we could talk a little bit about defense and how important do you think it is to be a strong player in the space industry for defense, you know, from threats from Russia, China, those kinds of things?

Andrius Kubilius: Well, very good question, you know. Definitely space, space services, you know, are becoming crucial in defense. We see that from, you know, Russian war against Ukraine, very clearly. And definitely, you know, well, I see here, you know, CEO of European Space Agency, Josef Aschenbach, you know, he knows much better what they are planning to do, you know, what kind of, you know, new installations and new services are going to be established, you know, using established services like, established installations like Galileo and Copernicus. Really, we are looking how to expand possibilities, you know, to have more services for security. Now we launched, you know, Iris Square for secure satellite communication again. new development and I hope that again it will be at the same highest level of quality, technologies with quantum and so on, so that’s where we’re going. So this is what I call space for defence. On another side, we need to be really very dynamic in developing what I call defence for space. We need technologies that are becoming crucial because it’s very clear that because of the significance of space services for security and defence, of course there are threats that they will be, by our adversaries, will be attacked in whatever way. Physically, like we have seen, something of that happening, hacking and so on, so we are looking also how to develop that side of the story and among so-called defence projects of common European interest, which we are now developing and perhaps we shall come with so-called white paper on European defence, with a whole list of those big projects which can be realised only by all together, by EU member states, not alone. One of those projects besides Air Defence Shield, for example, we’re also looking into Space Shield as a project, how to defend our installations. So that’s what is next. I don’t know if that sounds not very romantic perhaps, but that’s what we need to do.

Rachel Morison: Haroshi, do you have anything to add on the defence side of things?

Hiroshi Yamakawa: First I noticed today’s keyword is romantic. Well, talking about defence or national security, JAXA is… is doing both, civil space and national security space. And so we are very closely collaborating with the Japanese Ministry of Defense and other national security-related organizations. And for example, we are engaging in space situation awareness. We are observing space debris and, of course, active satellites. And the aim is to prevent collisions between our satellites or protect our satellites. And two years ago, Japanese Ministry of Defense also established their own SSA sensors on the ground. And so we have a direct interface with the Japanese MOD and also US DOD from about 10 years ago. And the other point is that we are also having contract with the MOD for space situation awareness. But what we call the next step is SDA, Space Domain Awareness Satellite, which will be designed and manufactured operated by MOD. But we also have a contract with MOD to contribute to that system. So we are doing many things together with not only MOD, but other security-related agencies or organizations like Japan Coast Guard. And so we are providing satellite data for maritime domain awareness. So that kind of activity is going on between us.

Rachel Morison: Thanks. And I’d like to bring things back to Earth for a few moments and just talking about the opportunities for leveraging space technology to address sustainability challenges. So according to a WEF report, Earth observation capabilities can help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 2 gigatonnes. annually in the next five years, what kinds of other applications could there be for helping to monitor things like greenhouse gas emissions, methane, that sort of thing? Dava, I don’t know if you’ve got any thoughts on that. Yeah,

Dava Newman: thank you very much. So again, people might not realize now more than 50%, we hit a tipping point, more than 50% of all of our Earth data, our Earth, our climate data is seen, is from space. So space, so we can’t, you can’t live a day without space. You can’t live a day without this. That’s the information, eyes on Earth. So our constellations of Earth-observing satellites are phenomenal in that they are, as you mentioned, really have an economic value as well. But I call them the vital signs. So monitoring and measuring and mapping, you mentioned greenhouse gases, but you know, CO2, methane in particular, for that’s, you know, industry really cares about that, you know, public cares too, but now it’s high precision, methane mapping, so that if you see methane, of course we know its consequences to greenhouse gas and to climate, so you want to stop those leaks, if it’s a pipeline, right away. That’s really, you know, very valuable. And on pollution, I want to, you know, talk about human health. So we just launched a new satellite mapping, so we have daily coverage of the Earth, and now in pollution, there’s, you take a look, so the, my example is, you know, over New York City, so now you look at the pollution on a daily basis of New York, and you give that data, it’s open data, it’s government data, private folks, so you give that to the hands of people, because it’s not just New York is polluted, right, it’s boroughs, it’s specific areas, critically important for human health, where are the hospitals, where are people getting sick, what’s unhealthy, so really now close to real-time measuring, mapping, and monitoring, where space, you know, connects with health and wellness, we hope, just one example, but it’s a great example of the empowerment of that data, that very useful data, coming down from space. Put that into people’s hands, and the decision-makers. And, you know, people, disasters, of course, natural disasters are the other, you know, very important use case and scenario. How do we get data as soon as possible in real time to people on the front lines, whether it’s fire or floods, how do you get it to decision makers, how do you get people out of harm’s way? Because at the end of the day, then that’s saving lives.

Rachel Morison: Very important. Go ahead. Thank you.

Hiroshi Yamakawa: Well, talking about climate change, I’m very proud to say that Jackson has launched the world’s first satellite dedicated to observing carbon dioxide in 2009. And the name of the satellite is GOESAT. And we are currently operating two GOESAT satellites. So we already have accumulated about 15 or 16 years of carbon dioxide data variation seasonally and also globally. Last year, we are also very proud that together with the European Space Agency, we have launched EarthCare satellite dedicated to tackling climate change. And I think the EarthCare has already produced so many valuable data to contribute to climate change issues. And so there’s a lot to do. There’s a lot we have to do together, I mean, internationally, and not only with the United States, not only with the European Space Agency. But I mean, we have to collect every data, I mean, related to climate change.

Rachel Morison: Zach.

Zachary Bogue: Yeah. And just sort of building on both these great comments. Over half the variables we need to track to address climate change can only be tracked from space. And double clicking on methane. So methane is responsible for one third of current climate change. So it’s a huge number because it’s a very potent greenhouse gas. As it turns out, much of that either comes from agriculture or from installed oil and gas infrastructure. For installed oil and gas infrastructure, it’s actually easiest to pinpoint the leaks from airplanes, which is interesting. So that’s just, you know, it’s very densely installed infrastructure, so you really need to be able to pinpoint it that will actually enable a truck to go fix it. But from orbit, there’s things that you can only really do from orbit. For instance, you can’t really just go into Saudi Arabia or Kazakhstan and rent a Cessna and go fly over the oil fields. So spotting the super emitters sort of globally and really actually being able to address those mega, mega leaks is one. And the other is actually there’s satellites that look at sort of the net output per large unit of area. Because right now, we’re doing sort of a bottoms-up analysis on methane, and we’re missing a lot of it because the owners of the oil and gas infrastructure aren’t necessarily reporting their best estimates. And so understanding actually, hey, from this unit area, there’s this much methane coming out. And where is it actually all coming from? Because currently, the numbers aren’t adding up. So these are two great use cases from orbit. Interesting.

Rachel Morison: And Andrius, you have something to add?

Andrius Kubilius: Yeah, just one small comment, small info. If you remember at the beginning of this year, of January, just two weeks ago, there was a publication of Global Climate Highlights Report 2024. And I put my comment on Twitter, which starts with a very clear statement. EU Earth Observation Satellite System, Copernicus, warns you 2024 was the warmest year on record, and the first to exceed 1.5 Celsius degrees above the pre-industrial level. So that’s where Copernicus system really is able to provide sometimes not very nice conclusions.

Rachel Morison: Thank you. And before we open up to some questions from the floor, I would just like to touch on the topic of space tourism. and whether you think it’s a good idea, whether it’s something that we should be spending money on rather than before we get enough satellites up into space. Would you want to go as a space tourist? Maybe we can start with you, Andrius.

Andrius Kubilius: Sure. Good. Tomorrow, you know. No, we shall talk with the Commissioner on transport and tourism. Should we join our efforts to… A different department.

Rachel Morison: OK. Zak, what do you think?

Zachary Bogue: Sure. So my friend actually went into space on one of these commercial tourism endeavours and he actually went with William Shatner on the same mission. And he basically said as soon as he got back down to the planet, he just wanted to get back up there because the human eye can see in so many degrees of colour that the photos just don’t capture. The blackness of space, he said, was just staggering. You just can’t actually understand how black it is compared to the blueness of the planet. He said it really was sort of a transformational endeavour. So I’m net positive on that as long as it’s not pulling away from basic R&D and all of this stuff. But, you know, why not? I’m sure, yes, I would like to go to space.

Rachel Morison: Dava, what about you?

Dava Newman: Oh, yeah, I’m in. Yeah, I’m all in, you know. Not just space. We have someone who’s been in space here in the audience. Let’s talk about it. But for me, again, it’d be a little bit more scientifically driven. So Mars, I mean, I’d prefer to go to Mars. It’d be OK. I’ve flown a lot in microgravity. We test in all of our experiments. We fly microgravity problems. We experience weightlessness through microgravity, lunar gravity, 1-6G, Mars, 3-8G. So, you know, I’m fascinated with performance of humans and the physics of it and, again, finding life, the scientific questions. But, yeah, we’re all in. And I think we’ll see many, many people in low-Earth orbit. I think the tourism in low-Earth orbit, as your friend, as private missions are here. So yeah, that’s going to scale. It’s going to be fun. You can all tell me about the business case, but I think we’re just right on the cusp. Many people to the planets and other things. I think that’s a whole different question. I don’t see that in near time. But I’ll just end on the overview fact. It’s real. Not just the colors. When you’re in microgravity and you look down on spaceship Earth, the pale blue dot, when you look down and you see our thin atmosphere, if I take a soccer ball, who lives in Europe, is Earth to scale, if Earth to scale is the size of a soccer ball, our life support system, our beautiful life support system, our atmosphere, it’s three human hairs thick. So I can tell you that. And maybe it resonates or not. We have to keep this and protect this. But when you see that and you see Earth and just how magnificent it is, some astronauts turn away. They cry. It’s so beautiful. And everyone then realizes very emotionally that this is humanity. We’re all in this together. It’s spaceship Earth. And we’re all astronauts down here living together. So what I love about it is that transformative, philosophical change. I think that’s how we change human behavior. It’s all related to me, to climate and health.

Rachel Morison: That’s wonderfully expressed. Thank you. Andrius, I knew you wanted to say something quick.

Andrius Kubilius: Just a short moment.

Dava Newman: Romantic, you know? I’m not romantic. It’s my role on this panel.

Andrius Kubilius: I’m dreaming. Maybe my grandson, on the weekend, will have to make a choice. Being a little bit older, of course, before the end of the century, where to go? 100 kilometers to the nearest beach or 100 kilometers up to the space? For the weekend.

Rachel Morison: Exactly. 400 kilometers. OK. Thank you. And we’ll take some questions from the room. Perhaps we could, the European Space Agency, I know you’re here, if you’d like to say something. Behind the second row as well, please. Thank you.

Audience: Thank you. I mean, so much has been said. There’s not much more to add, because a lot of points have been raised. But there is one point, I think, which is sometimes underestimated or under-noticed. I mean, space is so important for daily life. Of course, we all love seeing rockets going up and seeing big things happening, which make a lot of noise. And this is all very exciting. But sometimes we don’t realize how much space has been integrated in daily life already today. You mentioned Copernicus. You mentioned navigation, also in many other domains where it is literally part of daily life. Or in other words, you couldn’t function well if you wouldn’t have your space infrastructure in place. There’s one point, and this is a bit also which I’d like to address to Andreas Kobelius as new commissioner. Of course, when we portray ourselves into the future, not three years or four years in terms of a political mandate, but 10 years, 20 years, really see what needs to be done now in order to make a difference in the future. And you have mentioned your title is Defense and Space. And defense will certainly be more and more important. How do you see, and this is probably a bit specific to Europe, because in Europe, the defense portion is underutilized compared to other countries. How do you see the longer term evolution linking defense and space? You are preparing a paper now within the first 100 days on the defense strategy. How much do you see space being part of it, and what is your vision there longer term? Of course, now things need to be done in order to be done in place in a couple of years.

Andrius Kubilius: Well, very briefly, you’re absolutely right. We need to see where space is, what is the direction. Definitely now the question is how we can use space services for our protection, for our defense, for our security. That’s crucial. We understand from the war. technologies, how they are moving and how much they are using space data. So that’s obvious. For me, when I’m looking into the space, it’s very clear that we shall have, again, this dual use of developments, very important. We need to understand what will happen in general in space, what way it will move, what kind of new areas, new directions will become a new normal. I’m saying when we are discussing defence very much, all those challenges, threats that Russia can test us and so on, and we know where we are with our capabilities. I started to use some kind of this word that we need to have big bank approach. We need to jump up very quickly, not waiting, not losing time. Then I moved to space, I said, look, I want to see also some kind of this, what is big bank for space? What is next? Where are we going? A little bit romantic, but very practical. So that’s very important for us to see, to understand, and then to really start to build this perspective, this big bank perspective now. Both with established industries, with new space industries, very dynamic, very vibrant. So that’s how I see the whole picture and the whole situation. And of course, space for defence will be very important, but at the same time, defence of space also will come as one of the very important strategic challenges which we shall need to find a way out to resolve.

Rachel Morison: Thank you.

Audience: Kimberly Washington, CEO of Deep Space Biology and founder of Space for Girls. So the International Space Station has served as a laboratory… for advancing innovation research for 25 years, especially in the healthcare sector. Now, with the International Space Station being decommissioned in 2030, and there is an emergence of a lot of choices and options. Government funding for health innovation and research, what happens now? And what happens to the collective, you know, collective research across cross-sectoral governments? And one other question, we’re talking about sending humans to space, our newly appointed president, Elon Musk, just joking, is aiming for Mars, and we have a responsibility to protect human lives and human health. You know, working with the research that’s taking place in space and understanding what happens to our body in space, it’s a deep concern. And so I’d like to hear, and I know, Dava, you and your lab, and you’re doing a lot to, you know, research health, and so we’d love to hear feedback. Thank you.

Rachel Morison: Fascinating. Well, I think, yeah, yeah, yeah, Hiroshi, please.

Hiroshi Yamakawa: Yes, well, talking about health research, of course, data taken by astronauts are accumulated, in every occasion, utilizing an international space station. Of course, NASA, ESA, JAXA, every country’s accumulating that kind of data. That will not be changed, I think. And the other part of the research related to health, we, JAXA, is engaging in what we call protein crystal growth experiment, and because under very low gravity, the protein crystal is growing very, I mean, beautifully, so that we can analyze the structure of the protein. we’re going to get back the samples from the ISS onto the ground. And that is utilised… We are assuming that those results will be utilised for designing medicine. Because when we know the structure very well, then we can design the protein which can be combined with the other part of the protein. So that’s one of the examples of the research. And then… So I think that that kind of research will continue even after 2030. Because it will definitely accelerate the medicine design process. So that’s one of the examples.

Rachel Morison: Dava, anything to add?

Dava Newman: Yeah, I can mention that. Because people just might not know, so on International Space Station on our six-month missions now with a mixed crew, with all the partners and really all the world going up, each astronaut performs about 250 science missions, life science missions and physical science missions and material science missions in six months. So it’s a plethora of science. It’s really fantastic. It’s the world’s greatest laboratory, if you ask me, off planet. And so back to health or the life sciences in terms of crystal growth. Beautiful, magical crystals. There’s a billion-dollar future drug coming out. That’s what we’re hoping. Materials, material science. Again, breakthrough materials that can only be done in this weightless environment. I think Space Station helped negotiate the last time around with all the partners here to extend life. But it is getting to the end of its life cycle and system. So I think that it does need to be decommissioned. So then how you do that with some private space stations, governments are going to participate. And I think government funding for the fundamental health and life sciences. Because those are all… You mentioned the dual use. Those are all… The primary use is Earth. That is science and R&D in space, low Earth orbit, but all for Earth, all Earth-based for disease. you know, drug development, all those kind of things. So it’s very much, you know, primary use of space stations. And then it’s just a matter of what’s the partnership, you know, how much government resources, how much private, how much commercial. And, you know, don’t forget about a scientist because we want to, we need to go up there and do the work. So again, I don’t see huge changes, but just intentional and maybe more opportunities too. If the business case closes with the private stations and with governments also, then maybe just doing R&D, but not owning and operating, you know, that’s a more efficient, that could be potentially a more efficient model.

Rachel Morison: And is the health space a sort of commercial interest? Can you see that?

Zachary Bogue: We have not, we’ve seen some ideas in that space. We haven’t taken a deep dive. So, but yeah, it’s obviously, there’s a lot of research that can only be done in space. So it’s an exciting and burgeoning field.

Dava Newman: And thank God, just to add to that, in space, but if we think about the spectrum of gravity, I mean, that’s where my mind goes. It’s not just the microgravity, you can have, it’s pretty exciting to have, you know, artificial gravity. So you can take a look here, we’re at 1G, we’ve evolved and developed at one gravity level. And microgravity is, you know, here. And so think about that whole spectrum from zero to one or higher gravity. That’s really fascinating to think about physiology, health benefits and things like that. So that’s really the space at least for scientific discovery, I’d say is gravity dependent. And opportunities when you change across, look at across the spectrum of gravity.

Rachel Morison: Thank you. And I’m afraid we’re out of time, but I’d like to thank the panelists for their insightful discussion. So thank you very much for being here. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you very much.

Agreement Points

Importance of Earth observation satellites for climate monitoring

speakers

– Dava Newman
– Hiroshi Yamakawa
– Andrius Kubilius

arguments

Newman emphasizes the importance of Earth observation satellites in providing climate data. She explains that over 50% of Earth and climate data now comes from space, making it crucial for monitoring and addressing environmental issues.

Yamakawa highlights Japan’s role in monitoring greenhouse gas emissions through satellites. He mentions the launch of the world’s first satellite dedicated to observing carbon dioxide.

Kubilius highlights the role of the EU’s Copernicus Earth Observation Satellite System in providing climate data. He emphasizes the system’s ability to deliver crucial information about global warming trends.

summary

All three speakers agree on the critical role of Earth observation satellites in monitoring climate change and providing valuable data for environmental decision-making.

Increasing importance of space for defense and security

speakers

– Andrius Kubilius
– Hiroshi Yamakawa

arguments

Kubilius discusses the increasing importance of space services for defense and security. He emphasizes the need for Europe to expand its capabilities in this area.

Yamakawa discusses the collaboration between civil space programs and national security efforts in Japan. He mentions JAXA’s involvement in both civil space and national security space activities.

summary

Both speakers acknowledge the growing significance of space technologies and services for national defense and security purposes.

Similar Viewpoints

Both speakers emphasize the increasing accessibility and commercialization of space, driven by reduced costs and partnerships between public and private entities.

speakers

– Zachary Bogue
– Dava Newman

arguments

Zachary Bogue discusses how decreasing launch costs are enabling more commercial ventures in space. He mentions that launch costs have decreased by 10x during his investing career, with potential for another 10x decrease in the next decade.

Dava Newman discusses how public-private partnerships are driving innovation in space exploration. She highlights the democratization of space access, allowing universities and small companies to participate in lunar missions.

Unexpected Consensus

Continuation of health research in space post-ISS decommissioning

speakers

– Dava Newman
– Hiroshi Yamakawa

arguments

Newman discusses the ongoing health research conducted in space, particularly on the International Space Station. He emphasizes the importance of protein crystal growth experiments in microgravity for medicine design.

Yamakawa discusses the ongoing health research conducted in space, particularly on the International Space Station. He emphasizes the importance of protein crystal growth experiments in microgravity for medicine design.

explanation

Despite the impending decommissioning of the ISS, both speakers agree on the importance of continuing health research in space, suggesting a consensus on finding alternative platforms or solutions to maintain this crucial area of study.

Overall Assessment

Summary

The speakers generally agree on the importance of Earth observation for climate monitoring, the growing significance of space for defense and security, and the increasing commercialization and accessibility of space. There is also consensus on the need to continue health research in space beyond the ISS.

Consensus level

The level of consensus among the speakers is relatively high, particularly on the practical applications of space technology for Earth benefits and defense. This consensus suggests a shared vision for the future of space exploration and utilization, which could lead to more coordinated international efforts and policies in these areas.

Different Viewpoints

Focus of space exploration

speakers

– Dava Newman
– Andrius Kubilius

arguments

Newman discusses the importance of missions to the Moon and Mars for scientific discovery. She emphasizes the search for evidence of life and the need for advanced technology to support these missions.

Kubilius discusses the diversification of the space economy into various branches. He outlines four main areas: space for economy, economy of space, economy in space, and economy of space exploration.

summary

While Newman emphasizes scientific discovery and exploration, Kubilius focuses more on the economic aspects and diversification of space activities.

Unexpected Differences

Overall Assessment

summary

The main areas of disagreement were subtle and primarily focused on the prioritization of scientific discovery versus economic development in space exploration.

difference_level

The level of disagreement among the speakers was relatively low. Most participants shared similar views on the importance of space exploration, Earth observation, and commercial opportunities in space. The differences were mainly in emphasis and approach rather than fundamental disagreements. This low level of disagreement suggests a generally unified vision for the future of space exploration and its benefits for Earth, which could facilitate cooperation and progress in the field.

Partial Agreements

Both Bogue and Newman agree on the importance of commercial involvement in space exploration, but they differ in their emphasis on the role of government partnerships. Bogue suggests more independence from government, while Newman highlights the benefits of public-private collaborations.

speakers

– Zachary Bogue
– Dava Newman

arguments

Bogue argues that commercial space companies will continue to operate regardless of who is in the White House. He suggests that these companies are not entirely reliant on government partnerships and can adapt to political changes.

Newman discusses how public-private partnerships are driving innovation in space exploration. She highlights the democratization of space access, allowing universities and small companies to participate in lunar missions.

Similar Viewpoints

Both speakers emphasize the increasing accessibility and commercialization of space, driven by reduced costs and partnerships between public and private entities.

speakers

– Zachary Bogue
– Dava Newman

arguments

Zachary Bogue discusses how decreasing launch costs are enabling more commercial ventures in space. He mentions that launch costs have decreased by 10x during his investing career, with potential for another 10x decrease in the next decade.

Dava Newman discusses how public-private partnerships are driving innovation in space exploration. She highlights the democratization of space access, allowing universities and small companies to participate in lunar missions.

Key Takeaways

The space economy is growing rapidly and becoming more commercialized, with decreasing launch costs enabling more private ventures

Space technology, especially Earth observation satellites, plays a crucial role in monitoring climate change and addressing sustainability challenges

Space capabilities are increasingly important for defense and national security purposes

There is potential for space tourism and further human exploration of the Moon and Mars, though scientific and economic viability remain key considerations

International collaboration and public-private partnerships are vital for advancing space exploration and technology development

Resolutions and Action Items

Continue developing and leveraging space technologies to address climate change and sustainability issues on Earth

Pursue further international collaboration and public-private partnerships in space exploration and technology development

Develop technologies to defend space assets and infrastructure

Unresolved Issues

Long-term economic viability of space tourism and human exploration beyond low Earth orbit

Specific plans for replacing the International Space Station’s research capabilities after its decommissioning in 2030

Balancing commercial interests with scientific research priorities in space

Addressing potential security threats to space infrastructure

Suggested Compromises

Balancing government and private sector involvement in future space stations and research facilities

Pursuing dual-use technologies that can serve both defense and civilian purposes in space

Space will become new normal. There will be romantic people looking to new frontiers, there will be also practical people like Europeans, making Galileo, making Copernicus, service to all the people.

speaker

Andrius Kubilius

reason

This comment provides an insightful perspective on the future of space, framing it as becoming an everyday part of life rather than just a frontier for exploration. It highlights the dual nature of space development – both romantic exploration and practical applications.

impact

This comment shifted the discussion to consider the long-term integration of space into daily life and economy, beyond just exploration. It prompted others to discuss more practical applications of space technology.

Over half the variables we need to track to address climate change can only be tracked from space.

speaker

Zachary Bogue

reason

This statement highlights the critical role of space technology in addressing one of the most pressing global challenges. It connects space exploration directly to practical Earth-based concerns.

impact

This comment deepened the discussion on the practical applications of space technology, particularly in environmental monitoring. It led to a more detailed conversation about specific uses of satellite data for climate change mitigation.

When you’re in microgravity and you look down on spaceship Earth, the pale blue dot, when you look down and you see our thin atmosphere, if I take a soccer ball, who lives in Europe, is Earth to scale, if Earth to scale is the size of a soccer ball, our life support system, our beautiful life support system, our atmosphere, it’s three human hairs thick.

speaker

Dava Newman

reason

This vivid description provides a unique perspective on Earth’s fragility and the importance of our atmosphere. It connects the experience of space travel to environmental awareness in a powerful way.

impact

This comment brought an emotional and philosophical dimension to the discussion, highlighting the transformative nature of space travel. It shifted the conversation to consider the broader implications of space exploration on human perspective and behavior.

The Space Strategy Fund is to foster the Japanese space industry and even non-space industry. And the budget for what we call the Space Strategy Fund is annually 2.0 billion US dollars. And it’s bigger than our own budget.

speaker

Hiroshi Yamakawa

reason

This comment provides concrete information about significant financial investment in space technology, highlighting the growing economic importance of the space sector.

impact

This information sparked discussion about funding models and the role of government in fostering space industry development. It led to comparisons with other countries’ approaches and consideration of public-private partnerships.

Overall Assessment

These key comments shaped the discussion by broadening its scope from purely scientific and exploratory aspects of space to include economic, environmental, and philosophical dimensions. They highlighted the increasing integration of space technology into various aspects of life and economy, the critical role of space in addressing global challenges like climate change, and the transformative potential of space exploration on human perspective. The discussion evolved from technical aspects to a more holistic view of space’s role in human development and global problem-solving.

How will the space economy develop across different branches (space for economy, economy of space, economy in space, economy of space exploration)?

speaker

Andrius Kubilius

explanation

Understanding the evolution of these different aspects of the space economy is crucial for planning and investment in the sector.

What will be the long-term impact of decreasing launch costs on the commercialization of space?

speaker

Zachary Bogue

explanation

This trend is making space more accessible to commercial entities and could significantly shape the future of the industry.

How can space technology be further leveraged to address climate change and sustainability challenges?

speaker

Rachel Morison

explanation

Space-based observations play a crucial role in monitoring and potentially mitigating climate change impacts.

What is the future of international collaboration in space exploration and research?

speaker

Hiroshi Yamakawa

explanation

International cooperation is vital for sustainable and comprehensive space exploration and research efforts.

How will the decommissioning of the International Space Station in 2030 impact space-based health and medical research?

speaker

Kimberly Washington (audience member)

explanation

The ISS has been a crucial platform for microgravity research, and its decommissioning raises questions about the future of such research.

What is the long-term vision for linking defense and space in Europe?

speaker

Josef Aschenbach (audience member)

explanation

Understanding the intersection of defense and space technology is crucial for strategic planning and resource allocation.

How can the benefits of the ‘overview effect’ experienced by astronauts be translated to broader society?

speaker

Dava Newman

explanation

The psychological impact of seeing Earth from space could potentially influence environmental awareness and global cooperation.