Diplomacy amid Disorder / DAVOS 2025

Summary

This panel discussion at the World Economic Forum focused on the current geopolitical situation, particularly in the Middle East and Europe. The participants, including foreign ministers and officials from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Finland, and Spain, discussed recent developments and potential paths forward for various conflicts and challenges.

The discussion began with an update on the ceasefire in Gaza, with Qatar’s role in mediating the hostage deal highlighted. There was cautious optimism about the potential for lasting peace and reconstruction in the region. The conversation then shifted to changes in Syria and Lebanon, with panelists expressing hope for stability and progress in both countries, while acknowledging the challenges ahead.

The risk of conflict between Israel and Iran was addressed, with Saudi Arabia’s representative emphasizing the need for cooperation and diplomacy. The discussion also touched on Africa’s challenges, including conflicts in various regions and the need for economic development and international cooperation.

The ongoing war in Ukraine was discussed, with Finland’s representative stressing the importance of adhering to international law and supporting Ukraine’s right to self-defense. The panel also addressed the potential for peace negotiations and the broader implications for European security.

Throughout the discussion, there was a consistent emphasis on the importance of diplomacy, multilateralism, and international cooperation in addressing global challenges. The panelists highlighted the interconnectedness of various regional issues and the need for inclusive approaches to conflict resolution and economic development.

Keypoints

Major discussion points:

– The ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza, and prospects for lasting peace

– Political changes and stability in Syria and Lebanon

– Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly tensions between Iran and Israel

– Conflicts and development challenges in Africa

– The ongoing war in Ukraine and prospects for peace

Overall purpose/goal:

The purpose of this panel discussion was to examine major geopolitical issues and conflicts around the world, with a focus on the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The panelists aimed to provide insights on recent developments and discuss potential paths toward peace and stability in various regions.

Tone:

The overall tone of the discussion was cautiously optimistic. While acknowledging the serious challenges and risks in different parts of the world, many panelists expressed hope for positive developments, particularly regarding the ceasefire in Gaza and political changes in Syria and Lebanon. The tone remained largely consistent throughout, with panelists balancing realism about current conflicts with optimism about diplomatic efforts and opportunities for peace.

Speakers

– Børge Brende: President of the World Economic Forum

РJos̩ Manuel Albares Bueno: Foreign Minister of Spain

– Yusuf Tuggar: Foreign Minister of Nigeria

– Elina Valtonen: Minister of Foreign Affairs of Finland

– Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani: Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar

– Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud: Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia

Additional speakers:

– Steve Witkoff: Presidential envoy for the Middle East (mentioned, but did not speak)

– President von der Leyen: President of the European Commission (mentioned, but did not speak)

– President Zelenskyy: President of Ukraine (mentioned, but did not speak)

Geopolitical Challenges and Opportunities: A World Economic Forum Panel Discussion

Introduction

This panel discussion at the World Economic Forum brought together foreign ministers and officials from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Finland, and Spain to examine major geopolitical issues and conflicts around the world. The conversation focused primarily on the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, with participants providing insights on recent developments and discussing potential paths toward peace and stability in various regions.

Middle East: Ceasefire and Regional Dynamics

The discussion began with an update on the ceasefire in Gaza, with Qatar’s role in mediating the hostage deal highlighted. Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar, described the ceasefire agreement as a positive first step towards stability. He emphasised the importance of allowing the Palestinian people to determine Gaza’s future governance.

Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, echoed this sentiment, stating that the ceasefire provides hope and demonstrates that conflicts can be resolved through negotiation. This view was shared by other panellists, with Yusuf Tuggar, Foreign Minister of Nigeria, suggesting that the ceasefire model could be applied to conflicts in Africa.

The conversation then shifted to changes in Syria and Lebanon. Prince Faisal emphasised the opportunity presented by new leadership in Syria, calling for the international community to engage with and support the new Syrian administration. He stated, “I think we have to engage, we have to show some patience with the administration in Damascus. I think we all have to put out a helping hand, because the reality is that they have inherited a broken country, with no real institutions, and they’re having to build all of that from scratch.”

José Manuel Albares Bueno, Foreign Minister of Spain, affirmed that Spain and the European Union are backing peace efforts in Lebanon and Syria. He committed to providing humanitarian aid to both countries, stating, “We are going to continue providing humanitarian aid to Lebanon and Syria, and we are going to continue working for peace in both countries.”

Geopolitical Risks and Regional Stability

The risk of conflict between Israel and Iran was addressed, with Prince Faisal identifying a full-scale war between the two countries as a major risk factor for the region. Elina Valtonen, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Finland, stressed the importance of respecting international law and multilateralism for maintaining stability.

Challenges and Opportunities in Africa

Yusuf Tuggar provided insights into the challenges facing Africa, attributing current conflicts to the mismanagement of the post-Cold War era. He stated, “Part of what we’re facing today is the fallout of, I would say, the mismanagement of the liminal moment that came at the end of the Cold War, where certain theories that were incubated not so well in think tanks were applied to real-life situations.” Tuggar highlighted the impact on the Sahel region and called for increased collaboration between the global north and south, advocating for reform of the UN Security Council.

The War in Ukraine and European Security

The ongoing war in Ukraine was a significant topic of discussion, with Elina Valtonen expressing skepticism about the likelihood of a peace agreement this year due to Russia’s actions. She stated, “I’m pretty sure there will not be a peace agreement this year,” emphasizing Ukraine’s right to self-defence and the importance of international support for the country.

Valtonen also challenged the notion of neutrality as a safeguard against aggression, using Ukraine as an example: “Ukraine was neutral before this, right? And also during the Cold War, there were so many neutral countries, or there were so many countries behind the Iron Curtain in Europe where the people really wanted to be someplace else.” This comment sparked a debate on the effectiveness of neutrality in international conflicts, with Tuggar advocating for neutral countries as mediators, while Valtonen argued that neutrality is not always effective, especially in the context of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Conclusion

Throughout the discussion, there was a consistent emphasis on the importance of diplomacy, multilateralism, and international cooperation in addressing global challenges. While the overall tone was cautiously optimistic, with many panellists expressing hope for positive developments, they also acknowledged the serious challenges and risks in different parts of the world. The discussion revealed both areas of agreement and disagreement among the speakers, reflecting the complex nature of global geopolitics and the diverse perspectives of nations grappling with these issues.

Børge Brende: Good afternoon. Welcome to one of the most important sessions at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting. It is the session on geopolitics. If you look at the geopolitical backdrop that this meeting is happening against, I think it’s the most complicated in generations. But this panel is working hard every day to make it less complicated. And we know that when you’re between orders, things are even more complex. We had one world order after the Cold War, lasted for almost 30 years, it was like this win-win world order, then we are now in between. I think there is more national interests. If you want to get something done, there has to be overlap in national interest, and then you might see it happen. What this new world order will end up in, we don’t know yet, but it’s definitely going to be more multipolar than the world order we had in the past. Will it be multipolarity with also some multilateralism? We’ll hear with the panel. So I’m going to start with Sheikh Mohammed Al Thani, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar. And congratulations on the hostage deal. And in Gaza, I think you have spent 24-7 the last year on that. And will it last?

Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani: Well, let’s be hopeful, and look, it’s still a long way to go, and we are, with what has happened throughout the last 15 months and negotiating this very difficult conflict, it showed us that everything can be resolved through talks and through engagement and through negotiations. And, you know, we started this week with good news. We have seen the ceasefire in place. We have seen the humanitarian aid coming in. We have seen hostages going back. And we hope that this will be just, you know, a first step towards stability. Now, will it last or not, I think this question should be posed to the parties of the conflict, and they need to adhere to what they agreed upon in the agreement. And basically, us as a guarantor and as mediators in this agreement, we have to ensure that every step is implemented as it’s agreed. But it all depends how, you know, if they are embarking in this in good faith, this is will last, and hopefully will lead to phase two, will lead to a permanent ceasefire. And hopefully we will have the time to address the real issue and to put an end for this conflict that’s been there for decades.

Børge Brende: Do you think and do you see a role now in the reconstruction of Gaza for the PA in Ramallah taking on the role?

Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani: Look, of course, you know, there are a lot of talks and a lot of conversations about the day after in Gaza and the reconstruction and what will happen next. I believe, you know, this question primarily needs to be answered by the Palestinian people and what they will agree on. I don’t see that there is any country in position to dictate anything on them on the way that they will be governed. We hope to see the PA back in Gaza. We hope to see them, to see a government that will really address the issues of the people over there. And there are a lot and there is a long way to go with Gaza and the destruction. Look, what we have seen in the images and the press and the news for the last 15 months didn’t make justice for the real situation over there. And now we will start to see what’s real catastrophe it left behind it.

Børge Brende: A lot of changes in a very short time in the Middle East. So there is a new president in Lebanon, there’s a new prime minister. Assad is gone, he’s now in Moscow. The new foreign minister of Syria is on his way here to Davos. He couldn’t make this panel, but he’s going to participate in other panels. And also we see that the situation in Iran is also changing. And then we have a new president in the U.S. with his inaugural address yesterday and also with his clear views on the region. So where do you see the Middle East in a year and also then with this new administration in the U.S.?

Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani: Well, it’s, you know, when I started with, you know, we are hopeful about this deal in Gaza that will lead to a ceasefire. There are a lot of, you know, good news that happened despite all the crises that we’ve been through in the last year. Lebanon has a president, Syria, we have seen an end of a brutal regime that killed and displaced its people for the last 13 years. We have seen a ceasefire in Gaza that we hope that will last and will become a permanent ceasefire and hopefully to lead to a solution to the conflict. There are a lot of good things happening that we need to build upon. Now, of course, with the new president in the United States, he’s not stranger to the Middle East. He’s been a president from 2016-21. We believe there are a lot of good opportunities that we can work together and collaborate with him in order to exploit and to make the Middle East a stable region. We have seen some movements and also we have seen them in motion actually when during the negotiations in the last two days, Steve Witkoff, the presidential envoy for the Middle East, made a big difference and I’ve seen a real partner in him that we got it together to cross the finish line.

Børge Brende: He even put Netanyahu under pressure, didn’t he?

Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani: Well, it’s the job of the mediator to put every party under pressure to end this conflict and we have seen that this is bringing results and bringing a real outcome. Now, when it comes to what we are seeing from President Trump, the whole notion of making America great again is something very important and we believe that also we want to see the Middle East great again. We want to see a leadership that’s happening in the Middle East, taking over and addressing its own conflicts and hopefully coming up with solutions. We have seen a greater collaboration throughout the last year between all other Middle Eastern partners in order to find solutions, whether when it comes to the issue in Gaza or the issue in Syria, and we hope to see Europe great again and the whole world is great again.

Børge Brende: Thank you for mentioning that, I was just waiting for that, inshallah. Making Europe great again? I think we’re on it, you heard President von der Leyen earlier today. You just came from Damascus, didn’t you?

Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani: Yeah.

Børge Brende: Yeah. So, I’m going to use that also. as a segue to Prince Faisal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but what, are you, are you more convinced about your commitment to be inclusive and on the path of something that can be good after your visit?

Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani: Well, as I mentioned, first to see an end of a brutal regime that killed and committed war crimes against his own people is good news, yet it’s a transition period and still a long way to go towards stability, but we have hope, we have faith in the Syrian people. Syrian people are very productive, very active, very innovative. We have seen them in the diaspora, we have seen them as refugees, started as refugees and they became vital elements in different economies. They are engineers, doctors, businessmen, and very successful ones. And we see that this is, if things will come together without any spoilers, and the new administration in Syria will also engage with everyone inclusively, and what we have heard actually from Damascus is very promising. And we all hope that this will take them from, you know, all the pains of the civil war in the last 13 years to a new chapter for Syria, where Syria is a stable country, very productive, and also a core of stability in the entire region.

Børge Brende: Mr. Faisal, I think the new Syrian leader, his first international visit was to Riyadh, meeting with His Royal Highness the Crown Prince, with yourself? You mean the Sheikh, by the foreign minister? Yeah, foreign minister was it, yeah, sorry. And how did that go, and what is your take, if I repeat the same question as I had to Sheikh Mohammed, are you, of course we are all in the real political world here, but are you cautiously optimistic, or is that going too far?

Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud: No, I would certainly say I’m cautiously optimistic. I may even lean further, because of some of the elements that Sheikh Mohammed mentioned. You have, first of all, an administration that is saying the right things, in private and in public, doing a lot of the right things. But also you have a Syrian people that is incredibly capable, and is incredibly resourceful, that allows an opportunity to really take Syria in a very positive direction. I think we have to engage, we have to show some patience with the administration in Damascus. I think we all have to put out a helping hand, because the reality is that they have inherited a broken country, with no real institutions, and they’re having to build all of that from scratch. And that’s not an easy thing, especially since probably they were not expecting to be where they are now. So it’s up to us, I feel, in the region first, but certainly the international community as a whole, to engage, to come and build on this positive development, and help Syria and the Syrian people see a much better future. And I think with the attitude that we’ve seen from the new administration, both during the visit, the bilateral visit that the minister had, but also in the conference that we hosted with a number of Arab countries and the Friends of Syria and the international community, we saw a very, very keen desire by the administration in Damascus to engage with the partners in the region, with the international community, also to engage in a way that is very responsive. So they are very open to hearing comments and working with the international community to move in the right direction. And here, as I said, we need to engage, we need to show some patience, and we need to be helpful. One way we can be helpful, of course, is the issue of sanctions, because there is a huge burden of sanctions that was imposed on Syria because of the actions of the previous regime. I think we’ve heard already some waivers from the U.S., from Europe. Certainly I feel more needs to be done, because as I mentioned, you have a country that is really broken and that needs to be lifted up. And there are going to be difficulties, and the more we engage early and the more we are helpful early, the more I think this transition can be effective and can be reasonably inclusive.

Børge Brende: How do you look at the situation in Lebanon? We know that in the past Saudi Arabia was a big investor in Lebanon, and I think Saudi Arabia then pulled out because it was disappointed. How do you read the new situation in Beirut? Is that with more optimism too? Is the kingdom already ready to play more of a role, or is that premature?

Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud: Certainly we see the election of a president after a very lengthy vacuum as extremely positive. We also see the possible forming of a government. We hope the Lebanese will decide on that in the not-too-distant future. As additionally positive, we will need to see real action. We will need to see real reform. We will need to see a commitment to a Lebanon that is looking to the future, not to the past, in order for us to raise our engagement. I plan to be visiting Lebanon this week, and I think based on what I hear there and what we see, I think that will inform the kingdom’s approach. But I have to say what I’ve seen so far and the conversations that we’ve been hearing happening in Lebanon all allow me to be very much optimistic. What I hope, and we’ve always said, it’s really up to the Lebanese to decide and to make the choices to go and to take Lebanon in a different direction. That’s kind of what we’re hearing, and I hope that that translates into something tangible and ongoing.

Børge Brende: Looking at the biggest risk in the region that also have geopolitical dimensions, because even in a very difficult geopolitical situation, we still have pretty good global growth expected this year and next year. It’s not like it used to be the trend growth close to four, but we are more than 3%. The outlook we have for the GCC countries is pretty optimistic. What can really change this is a full-fledged war between Israel and Iran, and we were probably closer to that in the fall. But you also have a new administration now in the US. Is that one of the things that keep you most up at night? I know you have good nerves, so you probably sleep well, but how do you see that unfold? What are the risk factors?

Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud: I mean, we are certainly in a region that is abundant with risk factors, but we are also in a region that has huge potential. And I would say that even with a very difficult year behind us, we have shown that we can be resilient as a region, and we can actually look to the future, whether it’s the kingdom, the GCC countries and their ability to stay on track with their economic agendas, but also as we see now Syria, as we see now Lebanon, as we see now possibly in Gaza, there is positive. there. Are there risks? Certainly. Obviously a war between Iran and Israel, any war in our region is something that we should try to avoid as much as possible. I don’t see the incoming US administration as contributory to the risk of war. On the contrary, I think President Trump has been quite clear that he does not favour conflict. I hope that the approach will be met also on the Iranian side by addressing the issue of the nuclear programme, by being willing to engage with the incoming administration in a way that can help us stay on track with this positive momentum. We have been, between the Kingdom and Iran for instance, able to really move forward in our relationship and I think certainly on the Kingdom side we are committed to continuing that. The opportunity to turn a page exists in the whole region and just to focus on economic growth, on prosperity, on cooperation, all of that can be a reality. So I choose to be optimistic.

Børge Brende: How do you think they feel in Tehran after what unfolded in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria?

Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud: I don’t know. I hope they are, at least as we are, committed to a future that is focused on cooperation. And here, you know, what happened in Gaza, you know, the ceasefire, I think they have to be positive on that because it means that there is an end to the killing and the suffering of the civilians in Gaza. You know, the border region, the issue is really can we build a region based on cooperation, based on integration. I think we can. I hope the Iranians think so as well. And, you know, we are ready to do that.

Børge Brende: And we will hear more about that too because we do have Vice President Javad Zarif with us in Davos. There will be a one-on-one with him later on. We also know that Africa is playing a more and more important role. And we do have Yusuf Tuggar , the Foreign Minister of Nigeria, with us also this year. Thank you for coming back. You were on the panel last year too. And today it’s easy to look at Africa either like half glass, half empty, or half full. So there are regions and countries where you see investments and prosperity. Then you see also other areas that there is war and despair, and also increasingly also proxy wars. So seeing from Nigeria that together with South Africa are kind of the superpowers of the continent, where do you see the path moving forward? How to again get most of Africa on a track for growth and inclusion based on the African Free Trade, Continental Free Trade Agreement? And how to solve all these unfolding wars in Sudan, Somalia? I can make the list even longer. And also, of course, in the Sahel region that is much closer to you and where you’re very much affected.

Yusuf Tuggar: Well, thank you very much. Good to be back. I think the path forward has clearly been shown by what transpired in the ceasefire agreements, the negotiations between Israel and Hamas, and the guarantors, Qatar, Egypt, the U.S. I remember last year on this stage I talked about the need for more diplomacy, for diplomacy to be allowed space, for interlocutors to be allowed to engage. I gave an example of how during the Cold War we had these neutral countries that provided the grounds for such engagement between actors. So you can see what can be achieved. In the same vein, this can be applied to Africa, where we have these conflicts that you described. I think you left out Libya, which is very key. And for us, I think it’s important also for the world to be reminded that it’s important that we manage liminal moments responsibly and talk to each other, because part of what we’re facing today is the fallout of, I would say, the mismanagement of the liminal moment that came at the end of the Cold War, where certain theories that were incubated not so well in think tanks were applied to real-life situations. Case in point, democratic peace thesis. Clearly it’s been shown to have failed. It was a misreading of Immanuel Kant, because it was a democratic peace thesis trying to make others in your own image that brought about Iraq, that brought about Libya, that we in my region in West Africa are having to contend with. So we have a situation now where we have securitization in the Sahel, in an area where life depends on movement. We have seasonal migration. In an effort to restrict migration northwards, seasonal migration was stifled. So it became a life and death situation. And then there are certain actors there that are irredentist. They were empowered. And such irredentist groups clearly come into conflict with people that have been trained all their adult lives to protect the integrity of their countries. Soldiers. So this is part of the reason why we’re having to contend with unconstitutional changes of government. So you can see how, and then of course the weapons, pouring in from Libya, fighters. Then we’ve got Sudan to contend with, and so it goes. So there’s a need, the same way that regional and major powers got together to bring about, at least even if it’s temporary, some sort of suspension of hostilities in Gaza. I think that provides some kind of model. It provides hope. We need to fix Libya so that we fix the fastest growing part of the world. We’re going to contribute more in terms of population than any other region in the world. So these are some of the things that we need. And then of course we will always go back to the global financial architecture. There was a reason why G20 all of a sudden became very powerful. It followed the 2008 global financial meltdown, which necessitated the need to reach out more to developing countries. G7 couldn’t do it alone. And then all of a sudden, so we need to collaborate more between the global north and global south, make it more inclusive, make it more democratic. And then you also talk about the political structuring as well, which I’ve talked about here, which is the reform of the UN Security Council.

Børge Brende: Thank you very much Alina Walton and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Finland. The war in Ukraine is coming very shortly to three years. It is the war in Europe where most people have lost their lives since the Second World War. President Zelenskyy just spoke here in Davos, and do you think there will be a peace agreement this year?

Elina Valtonen: I’m pretty sure there will be a peace agreement this year. I was in Kiev just a week before last, and I must say that nobody wants and deserves peace more than Ukraine and, of course, the Ukrainian children. I visited the children’s hospital. The issue has been so far in the past three years, but I would say in the past more than 10 years, it’s been Russia who has not wanted to have peace, because otherwise, clearly, they would not have invaded a neighbouring country, not have blatantly violated international law, the UN Charter. Now it’s definitely time for peace in Europe, and we just so hope that Russia goes back to adhering to the treaties. It has itself been signing and, of course, dis-signing in the past. And I do hope that in so many ways – well, I think also the ceasefire in Gaza gives a lot of hope in this regard, because at the end of the day, what we need is stability, and the reason we need also international law is that people have something to cling to, something to build their future onto, onwards on, and therefore it’s extremely important that we keep on respecting multilateralism.

Børge Brende: What is at stake? President Zelensky just said that when Putin started the invasion, he had 200 soldiers involved. Now there are 600 Russian and other soldiers in the occupied territories. What is at stake? What is also at stake for your country and for Europe? Are you sure that the Ukrainians will be able to hold up in this situation, and also with the new geopolitical realities that we are faced with now?

Elina Valtonen: I think the Ukrainians have done a tremendous job. Of course, nobody wanted to have three years of war, but the reason there has been a war in the first place is because of Putin’s Russia, and Ukrainians have been able to defend themselves, yes, with the help of many other countries as well who have the right to do so according to the UN Charter. So Putin probably thought that they would take Kiev in a couple of days, and that didn’t work out. But I must say, since also my dear Nigerian colleague, and I think this is like a repeat from last year, but what comes to neutrality, I mean, if we look at different conflicts around the world, and especially the one in the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine, I mean, Ukraine was neutral before this, right? And also during the Cold War, there were so many neutral countries, or there were so many countries behind the Iron Curtain in Europe where the people really wanted to be someplace else. They wanted to have freedom. They exactly wanted to have democracy and certainly be part of the prospering world. Like we see now fantastic results, especially in the past 10, 15 years across the globe, and they fully agree that we need more cooperation, also more investment, especially more trade across to Africa as well and between the global north and south anyway. But the point is that we let people to choose. And certainly neutrality, if you’re a neighbor of Russia, often seems to lead to the fact that you are taking away the right to choose. And there I think we have a global obligation to defend people, the civilians also in this matter, and that’s what the international law and the treaties are for.

Børge Brende: Thank you. We have three and a half minutes left. That is for the Spanish Foreign Minister, José Manuel Bueno. I know you also just returned from Lebanon and Syria. So what will you say to Dr. Faisal that is heading to Lebanon and what was your take on Syria? Are you more optimistic after you visited Syria and what is your read on the situation in Lebanon?

José Manuel Albares Bueno: I think we have a real chance for peace, for stability, and in the future for prosperity for the people of Lebanon and Syria. In both places I think we must back peace and stability. We are doing it very heavily, Spain in UNIFIL. We have the lead of the UNIFIL troops with our Spanish general. We are helping the Lebanese forces to strengthen, to move to the south, to guarantee the sovereignty of Lebanon, also the security of the Israeli people that live in the north, and the same thing with Syria. I think if we help them we have a real chance to give stability and to give a future to a country that 90% of the people live under the threshold of poverty. The second thing, in both places we have a very complex society and from where I talk with the new president of Lebanon, the new prime minister, also with the new leadership in Syria, all of them are ready to have an inclusive future for everyone in the Lebanese society and in the Syrian society. And this is a real wealth in the Middle East that shows that there is a future of coexistence. And at the same time the needs are huge in both countries for the governments. The challenges they are facing are massive and in order to do that we have to help them. And that’s why we have committed our humanitarian aid both to Lebanon and to Syria. I’ve been very pleased that right after me the European commissioner backed by Ursula von der Leyen did the same thing, both in Lebanon and in Syria, because if the governments don’t show the people the benefits of this new stage, there is no way back. And of course I appeal to Israel to withdraw from both Syria and Lebanon. That will give back the sovereignty and that will guarantee stability and therefore peace for everyone. And certainly Spain will be helping in all that and our voice in Brussels will push European Union to go in that sense.

Børge Brende: Well, thank you very much. I wish we had at least half an hour more, but you should always end, I’m told, when people want the panel to continue. That’s not always the case, but for me at least that’s my feeling after this panel. Big thank you to all of you. And for those that are very interested to hear more, there is a one-on-one with Sheikh Mohamed a little bit later. And now some of us will also go to another meeting about the Middle East.

Agreement Points

Ceasefire in Gaza is a positive development

speakers

– Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
– Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud

arguments

Ceasefire agreement is a positive first step towards stability

Ceasefire provides hope and shows conflicts can be resolved through negotiation

summary

Both speakers view the ceasefire in Gaza as a positive step towards stability and a demonstration that conflicts can be resolved through negotiation.

Need for international engagement in Syria

speakers

– Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud
РJos̩ Manuel Albares Bueno

arguments

International community should engage with and support new Syrian administration

Spain and EU backing peace efforts in Lebanon and Syria

summary

Both speakers emphasize the importance of international engagement and support for Syria’s new administration to promote stability and reconstruction.

Similar Viewpoints

Both speakers emphasize the importance of local self-determination and new leadership in promoting positive change in the region.

speakers

– Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
– Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud

arguments

Palestinian people should determine Gaza’s future governance

New leadership in Syria presents opportunity for positive change

Both speakers stress the importance of international cooperation and adherence to global norms for maintaining stability.

speakers

– Yusuf Tuggar
– Elina Valtonen

arguments

Need for collaboration between global north and south

Importance of respecting international law and multilateralism for stability

Unexpected Consensus

Applying Gaza ceasefire model to other conflicts

speakers

– Yusuf Tuggar
РJos̩ Manuel Albares Bueno

arguments

Ceasefire model could be applied to conflicts in Africa

Spain and EU backing peace efforts in Lebanon and Syria

explanation

Despite representing different regions, both speakers see the potential for applying successful negotiation models from one conflict to others, suggesting a shared belief in the universality of diplomatic solutions.

Overall Assessment

Summary

The main areas of agreement include the positive nature of the Gaza ceasefire, the need for international engagement in conflict resolution, and the importance of local self-determination in governance transitions.

Consensus level

There is a moderate level of consensus among the speakers on broad principles of conflict resolution and regional stability. This suggests potential for collaborative approaches to addressing regional challenges, but specific implementation strategies may still vary.

Different Viewpoints

Approach to Syria’s new administration

speakers

– Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
– Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud

arguments

Look, what we have seen in the images and the press and the news for the last 15 months didn’t make justice for the real situation over there. And now we will start to see what’s real catastrophe it left behind it.

I think we have to engage, we have to show some patience with the administration in Damascus. I think we all have to put out a helping hand, because the reality is that they have inherited a broken country, with no real institutions, and they’re having to build all of that from scratch.

summary

While both acknowledge positive changes in Syria, Al Thani focuses on the catastrophic situation left behind, while Prince Faisal emphasizes the need for patience and support for the new administration.

Unexpected Differences

View on neutrality in international conflicts

speakers

– Yusuf Tuggar
– Elina Valtonen

arguments

I remember last year on this stage I talked about the need for more diplomacy, for diplomacy to be allowed space, for interlocutors to be allowed to engage. I gave an example of how during the Cold War we had these neutral countries that provided the grounds for such engagement between actors.

But I must say, since also my dear Nigerian colleague, and I think this is like a repeat from last year, but what comes to neutrality, I mean, if we look at different conflicts around the world, and especially the one in the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine, I mean, Ukraine was neutral before this, right?

explanation

While Tuggar advocates for neutral countries as mediators, Valtonen argues that neutrality is not always effective, especially in the context of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Overall Assessment

summary

The main areas of disagreement revolve around approaches to regional conflicts, the role of neutrality, and the level of support for new administrations in troubled areas.

difference_level

The level of disagreement among speakers is moderate. While there are differing perspectives on specific issues, there is a general consensus on the need for peace, stability, and development in the region. These differences in approach could impact the effectiveness of international efforts to address conflicts and promote stability in the Middle East and Africa.

Partial Agreements

Both agree on the need for stable governance in the region, but differ in their approach. Al Thani focuses on Gaza and the Palestinian Authority, while Prince Faisal discusses Lebanon’s political progress.

speakers

– Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
– Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud

arguments

We hope to see the PA back in Gaza. We hope to see them, to see a government that will really address the issues of the people over there.

Certainly we see the election of a president after a very lengthy vacuum as extremely positive. We also see the possible forming of a government. We hope the Lebanese will decide on that in the not-too-distant future.

Similar Viewpoints

Both speakers emphasize the importance of local self-determination and new leadership in promoting positive change in the region.

speakers

– Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
– Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud

arguments

Palestinian people should determine Gaza’s future governance

New leadership in Syria presents opportunity for positive change

Both speakers stress the importance of international cooperation and adherence to global norms for maintaining stability.

speakers

– Yusuf Tuggar
– Elina Valtonen

arguments

Need for collaboration between global north and south

Importance of respecting international law and multilateralism for stability

Key Takeaways

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is seen as a positive first step towards stability in Gaza

Changes in leadership in Syria and Lebanon present opportunities for positive change in the Middle East

International engagement and support is crucial for successful transitions in Syria and Lebanon

Geopolitical risks remain, particularly the potential for conflict between Israel and Iran

Africa faces ongoing challenges stemming from past conflicts and current instability

The war in Ukraine continues to be a major concern for European security

Multilateralism and respect for international law are crucial for global stability

Resolutions and Action Items

Spain committed to providing humanitarian aid to Lebanon and Syria

European Union backing peace efforts in Lebanon and Syria

Call for Israel to withdraw from Syria and Lebanon to restore sovereignty

Unresolved Issues

Long-term governance and reconstruction plans for Gaza

Ongoing conflicts in various African regions, including the Sahel

Reform of the UN Security Council

Path to ending the war in Ukraine

Addressing Iran’s nuclear program

Suggested Compromises

Engaging with new Syrian administration while showing patience for reforms

Gradual lifting of sanctions on Syria to support reconstruction efforts

Increased collaboration between global north and south on economic and political issues

We hope to see the PA back in Gaza. We hope to see them, to see a government that will really address the issues of the people over there.

speaker

Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani

reason

This comment introduces the complex issue of governance in Gaza post-conflict, highlighting the need for Palestinian self-determination.

impact

It shifted the conversation from immediate ceasefire concerns to longer-term governance challenges, prompting discussion of regional dynamics.

I think we have to engage, we have to show some patience with the administration in Damascus. I think we all have to put out a helping hand, because the reality is that they have inherited a broken country, with no real institutions, and they’re having to build all of that from scratch.

speaker

Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud

reason

This comment provides a nuanced perspective on Syria’s situation, advocating for engagement and patience rather than isolation.

impact

It led to a more in-depth discussion of Syria’s challenges and the role of the international community in supporting its reconstruction.

Part of what we’re facing today is the fallout of, I would say, the mismanagement of the liminal moment that came at the end of the Cold War, where certain theories that were incubated not so well in think tanks were applied to real-life situations.

speaker

Yusuf Tuggar

reason

This comment provides a historical context to current conflicts, challenging conventional wisdom about post-Cold War policies.

impact

It broadened the discussion to include the long-term consequences of past geopolitical decisions, particularly in Africa.

Ukraine was neutral before this, right? And also during the Cold War, there were so many neutral countries, or there were so many countries behind the Iron Curtain in Europe where the people really wanted to be someplace else.

speaker

Elina Valtonen

reason

This comment challenges the notion of neutrality as a safeguard against aggression, using Ukraine as an example.

impact

It shifted the discussion on the Ukraine conflict to broader themes of self-determination and the limitations of neutrality in international relations.

Overall Assessment

These key comments shaped the discussion by broadening its scope from immediate crises to long-term geopolitical trends and historical contexts. They challenged simplistic narratives about conflict resolution, emphasizing the complexity of governance, reconstruction, and international engagement in post-conflict scenarios. The comments also highlighted the interconnectedness of global issues, from the Middle East to Africa to Eastern Europe, encouraging a more holistic view of international relations.

What will the new world order look like?

speaker

Børge Brende

explanation

Understanding the emerging global order is crucial for predicting future geopolitical dynamics and international relations.

Will the ceasefire in Gaza lead to a permanent solution?

speaker

Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani

explanation

The long-term stability of the region depends on finding a lasting resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

What role will the Palestinian Authority play in the reconstruction of Gaza?

speaker

Børge Brende

explanation

The governance structure in Gaza will significantly impact the region’s future stability and development.

How will the new U.S. administration’s policies affect the Middle East?

speaker

Børge Brende

explanation

U.S. foreign policy has a substantial influence on regional dynamics and stability in the Middle East.

What steps are needed to lift sanctions on Syria and support its reconstruction?

speaker

Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud

explanation

Addressing sanctions and supporting Syria’s rebuilding efforts are crucial for regional stability and preventing further humanitarian crises.

How can Lebanon implement reforms to attract international support and investment?

speaker

Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud

explanation

Lebanon’s economic recovery and political stability depend on implementing reforms and regaining international confidence.

How can the risk of war between Israel and Iran be mitigated?

speaker

Børge Brende

explanation

Preventing conflict between these regional powers is crucial for maintaining stability in the Middle East and global security.

How can Africa address its various conflicts and promote economic growth?

speaker

Børge Brende

explanation

Resolving conflicts and fostering economic development in Africa is essential for global stability and prosperity.

What steps are needed to reform the UN Security Council and global financial architecture?

speaker

Yusuf Tuggar

explanation

Reforming international institutions is crucial for addressing global challenges and ensuring more equitable representation.

What conditions are necessary for a peace agreement in Ukraine?

speaker

Børge Brende

explanation

Ending the conflict in Ukraine is vital for European security and global stability.

How can the international community support the new administrations in Lebanon and Syria?

speaker

José Manuel Albares Bueno

explanation

International support is crucial for ensuring stability and prosperity in these countries as they navigate political transitions.