Quantum’s Black Swan

17 Jan 2024 11:30h - 12:15h

Event report

From drug discovery and material science to supply chain optimization, quantum technology holds the promise of solving previously unsolvable problems, yet its potential has long simmered beneath the surface.

What pivotal steps and game-changing breakthroughs can make quantum technology mainstream?

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Table of contents

Disclaimer: This is not an official record of the WEF session. The DiploAI system automatically generates these resources from the audiovisual recording. Resources are presented in their original format, as provided by the AI (e.g. including any spelling mistakes). The accuracy of these resources cannot be guaranteed. The official record of the session can be found on the WEF YouTube channel.

Full session report

Brad Stone

Quantum computing offers an ambitious alternative to classical computing by utilising quantum particles known as qubits instead of traditional bits. Unlike classical computers that represent information as either zeros or ones, qubits can exist in multiple states simultaneously, allowing for parallel processing and the potential to solve complex problems more efficiently. However, despite the promise of quantum computing, it is still in its early stages and has limited commercial deployment. The technology is complex and requires further advancements before it can reach its full potential. Quantum entanglement and superconductivity, which are key aspects of quantum computing, need to be further developed and understood. Joël Mesot, in discussing the origins and developments of quantum technology, highlighted institutions like CERN, the Paul Shearer Institute, and IBM as pioneers in this field, contributing to the progress of quantum computing. However, there is still a long way to go before it becomes widely accessible and practical. One notable concern raised is the potential for wealthier countries to have greater access to quantum systems due to the high costs associated with designing and building them. Brad Stone questions the inevitability of this wealth disparity, suggesting that it could further exacerbate existing inequalities. This observation sheds light on the ethical and societal implications of quantum technology becoming a privilege of the wealthy. In conclusion, quantum computing shows immense potential as a groundbreaking technology that could revolutionise computing capabilities. However, further technological breakthroughs are required to fully harness its power. The associated high costs and potential inequality in access pose challenges that need to be addressed. As quantum computing continues to advance, it is crucial to consider the broader impact it may have on society and work towards ensuring its benefits are accessible to all.

Audience

The discussion revolved around several key topics, including quantum technology, regulation, geopolitical competition, and the timeline for commercial viability of quantum computers. John Chipman, the Executive Chairman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, initiated the conversation by inquiring about the appropriate regulatory approach for quantum technology. He believes that it is essential to understand and discuss regulatory approaches to emerging technologies.

Jack, another participant in the discussion, mentioned that commercially viable quantum computers could potentially become available by 2029 or 2030. However, he also noted that governments would require an additional seven years to transition to quantum-safe mechanisms. This highlights the importance of considering the necessary timeframe for governments to adapt to the rapidly evolving landscape of quantum computing.

In relation to Artificial Intelligence (AI), John Chipman referred to three different types of regulation prevalent in the field: market-driven, rights-driven, and state-driven. This emphasizes the need to explore various regulatory approaches that balance market dynamics, individual rights, and state involvement when shaping the future of quantum technology and AI.

Moritz Berlenz sought clarification regarding Jack’s timeline for quantum computing. It is important to ensure clear and accurate communication on this complex topic to foster a more comprehensive understanding among participants.

The conversation also acknowledged the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ focus on technology as a principal arena of geopolitical competition. This highlights the significance of technological advancements, such as quantum computing, in shaping global power dynamics.

Overall, the discussion shed light on the need for a thoughtful and collaborative approach to regulation in the field of quantum technology. It underscored the importance of understanding the timeline for the commercial viability of quantum computers and the subsequent transition to quantum-safe mechanisms.

Ana Paula Assis

Quantum computing is considered necessary for future computational needs due to the limitations of classical computing. Classical computers would require the size of the universe to process some molecular activities, making it increasingly challenging to process complex tasks efficiently. The development of quantum computers addresses this issue, as they can handle complex calculations much more effectively.

IBM is actively involved in the development of quantum computing and has developed a leading software platform called Qiskit. Qiskit has garnered significant popularity, with over 500,000 registered users and more than two million downloads. Additionally, 67% of developers using quantum computers are utilizing IBM’s kit, indicating the company’s commitment to advancing the field.

However, the development of quantum computing should also consider the types of problems that can be addressed with this technology. Understanding the types of problems that can be solved is crucial for creating an ecosystem that includes the appropriate computer, software, and problem-solving approaches.

In terms of technical requirements, quantum computers need at least 100 qubits and the ability to run a minimum of 3,000 circuits or gates in a processor. These capacities are essential for enabling full-fledged operation and harnessing the potential of quantum computing.

While quantum computing has the potential to replace classical computers in solving certain problems, it is important to note that it may not be cost-effective to run certain applications on a quantum computer. Therefore, a hybrid approach that combines classical and quantum computing can enhance AI capabilities and effectively solve complex problems.

IBM’s progress in quantum computing is evident in their aim to achieve 3,000 circuits or gates by the end of 2024. Additionally, they have recently announced the development of Heron, a 133-qubit system capable of running 1,800 gates, further demonstrating their commitment to advancing the field.

Quantum computing has economic viability with significant investment. There are problems worth investing in quantum computing that can provide a substantial return on investment. However, there is also a need to focus on reducing errors in quantum systems. IBM is actively addressing this challenge, investing in strategies to reduce errors and isolate the multiple components of a quantum-centric computer.

The impact of quantum computing on cybersecurity is a significant concern. Quantum computers have the potential to decipher all existing crypto keys, which could result in a cybersecurity armageddon. However, efforts are underway to develop algorithms that can protect data from quantum-enabled attacks, with collaborations with the Institute of Standards of the United States already producing solutions.

The future of quantum computing looks promising, with significant progress being made in experimentation and usage. It is expected that by the end of this decade, quantum computers will be capable of performing meaningful and commercial tasks, further driving advancements in various fields.

Generative AI is being leveraged in Qiskit to accelerate the development of code for quantum computing. This integration of AI brings an additional wave of innovation to the field, facilitating faster progress and advancements.

Proactive skilling in quantum computing is crucial to prepare the workforce for the future. As quantum computing becomes more prominent, companies have a key role in ensuring that their workforce is adequately trained and equipped to harness the potential of this technology.

Regulation of quantum technology is expected to follow similar patterns as previous computing waves. The European Union is likely to play a significant role in regulating quantum technology, given its focus on industry, innovation, and infrastructure. Additionally, regulation will likely develop at a faster pace in regions where technology is advancing rapidly.

In conclusion, quantum computing is seen as a necessary solution for future computational needs. IBM’s active involvement and development of its software platform Qiskit demonstrate their serious commitment to advancing quantum computing. However, it is important to consider the types of problems to be solved, invest in reducing errors, and address the potential impact on cybersecurity. Proactive skilling and collaboration between quantum and classical computing will be instrumental in realizing the full potential of this technology. The regulation of quantum technology is also an area of focus that will likely play a crucial role in shaping its development and application.

Joël Mesot

Quantum computing is seen as crucial for efficiently solving complex problems due to its unique ability to work with different combinations, which exponentially increases the speed of problem-solving. Quantum sensors and quantum cryptography are integral parts of quantum computing, offering higher precision and enhanced security respectively. These technologies are already being integrated into various aspects of our lives. Additionally, quantum technology has the potential to revolutionize environmental monitoring by providing highly accurate data on climate change.

Conventional computers face significant challenges in solving real-time traffic issues in large cities due to the complexity of interactions between different modes of transportation. Quantum computing can address this issue by leveraging its ability to handle complex systems.

Researchers have been using AI technology for several years, indicating that AI breakthroughs are not recent. However, concerns are raised about the potential dominance of a few companies or states in the field of quantum computing. Collaboration, especially in Europe, is proposed to ensure equitable access to quantum computing. The idea of creating an open system accessible to everyone, similar to a “CERN of quantum,” is mentioned as a potential solution.

While the benefits of quantum computing are acknowledged, building quantum computing facilities can be a costly endeavor. This draws attention to the financial investments required for advancing this technology.

International collaboration between science and diplomacy sectors is stressed to address disparities in technological access. This collaboration promotes equality and reduces inequalities.

The approach of task allocation between quantum and classical computers is advocated, where easy tasks are given to regular computers or cloud computing, while more challenging tasks are dispatched to quantum computers. This approach ensures efficient resource utilization and maximizes computational capabilities.

Institutions like ETH have started offering programs and vocational training in quantum computing to prepare the workforce for future technologies. This focus on education and workforce development ensures a skilled labor pool capable of handling the challenges and opportunities presented by emerging technologies.

The rapid and diverse development of AI poses challenges in terms of regulation. Establishing comprehensive regulatory frameworks becomes difficult due to the constantly evolving nature of AI. In contrast, the regulation of sizable facilities, such as quantum computing facilities, is potentially easier as they have physical components that can be subject to regulation.

Overall, the expanded summary highlights the significance of quantum computing in solving complex problems, the integration of quantum sensors and quantum cryptography, the potential applications of quantum technology in environmental monitoring, the challenges in real-time traffic management, the long-standing use of AI technology by researchers, concerns about the dominance of a few entities in quantum computing, the importance of collaboration and accessibility, the financial implications of building quantum computing facilities, the need for science-diplomacy connections, the benefits of task allocation, the importance of workforce preparation, and the challenges of regulating AI and sizable facilities.

Jack Hidary

The potential of quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI) to transform various industries is highlighted by multiple speakers. GPUs (graphics processing units) have advanced to the point where they can now run quantum equations, allowing for the scaling of AI and quantum computing. This breakthrough has been achieved by companies like Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, and AMD.

A future hybrid computing infrastructure is expected to emerge, where CPUs (central processing units), GPUs, and QPUs (quantum processing units) will be meshed together. This infrastructure will enable code to become smarter and determine whether it should run on a CPU, GPU, or QPU, based on the specific task.

AI plays a crucial role in the success of quantum sensors, particularly in areas where GPS (Global Positioning System) is unavailable or untrustworthy. AI heavily supports the navigation system in airplanes, and the lives of pilots depend on its accuracy. However, in certain areas like huge swaths of the ocean and the Middle East, GPS jamming and spoofing are issues of concern, highlighting the need for alternative technologies like quantum sensors.

Quantum sensors leverage the principles of superposition and entanglement, enabling them to pick up very weak magnetic signals, such as those emitted by the electric signal of the heart. This precision in detection allows for a more accurate understanding of our world.

The disruption of secure communications by quantum computing is a significant concern. Current secure cryptography used in banking systems, messaging, and other applications will become obsolete due to the advancements in quantum computing. Organizations like NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) are actively developing post-quantum cryptography as a necessary replacement.

Governments, industry, and academia need to prepare for the impact of quantum computing, as the development of quantum computers is progressing at a faster pace than predicted. Addressing the digital divide in quantum technology is also crucial to ensure equal access and opportunities for all.

The convergence of AI and quantum sensing allows for the distinguishing of necessary information from a myriad of magnetic signals. By processing a wide array of magnetic signals through a GPU into an AI model, the significant signals, such as a heartbeat, can be separated from others generated by electronic devices.

Quantum navigation systems, which are not connected to any satellite or communication system, provide unhackable and reliable navigational options. Boeing and Airbus plan to incorporate quantum navigation into their planes, ensuring the safety and efficiency of air travel.

Overall, the potential of quantum computing and AI to transform industries is promising, but it also raises concerns about security and the need for adequate preparation. Close collaboration between various stakeholders is essential to harness the benefits of these technologies while mitigating risks. Addressing cybersecurity and the digital divide in quantum technology are critical steps towards a more inclusive and secure future.

AP

Ana Paula Assis

Speech speed

181 words per minute

Speech length

1655 words

Speech time

550 secs

A

Audience

Speech speed

200 words per minute

Speech length

207 words

Speech time

62 secs

BS

Brad Stone

Speech speed

190 words per minute

Speech length

979 words

Speech time

309 secs

JH

Jack Hidary

Speech speed

218 words per minute

Speech length

4142 words

Speech time

1140 secs

JM

Joël Mesot

Speech speed

175 words per minute

Speech length

1854 words

Speech time

635 secs